While the Super Bowl storylines are understandably centered around the biggest names (Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Christian McCaffrey, etc.), this year’s game significantly highlighted smart drafting.
Trent McDuffie, a cornerback the Chiefs aggressively moved up to draft in 2022, made game-changing plays. Kansas City’s run defense was led by linebacker Leo Chenal, a third-round pick from that same draft.
Jauan Jennings, a seventh-round pick at wide receiver (who ran a 4.72 40-yard dash!), caught and threw a touchdown for the 49ers.
These success stories round out NFL rosters, all the way to championships when crafted the right way.
Yet, the foundation of these rosters tends to start with who is under center. That can come in many forms, whether it’s a first rounder such as Patrick Mahomes (who was considered a project at the time) or literally the last pick in the draft, such as Brock Purdy.
Let’s dive into the top of this year’s class, breaking down six quarterback prospects that have a legitimate chance to go in the first round.
1.) Caleb Williams, USC
His encore to his 2022 Heisman campaign didn’t go as planned, but Caleb Williams still threw for over 3,600 yards and 30 touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, he’s thrown 72 total touchdowns and just 10 interceptions.
Williams is a full-field reader who knows how to manipulate defenders with his eyes. His short-area quickness and twitch in the pocket allows him to extend and create in unorthodox ways, where he maximizes those opportunities with unique arm talent. Combining his quick and effortless release with his off-platform throws to difficult areas of the field, he puts out jaw-dropping explosive plays on tape.
However, one key drop off from 2022 to 2023 was his performance against pressure, where his turnover worthy plays jumped up from 4 to 16. Williams can find himself naturally drifting backwards and sideways at times, looking for the explosive play rather than taking layups or living for the next snap.
Overall he is an exciting prospect due to his miraculous highlight-reel throws, but I’m a fan of his short-area accuracy and overall athleticism too. Williams is expected to be the first pick in the draft as the Bears hit the reset button at quarterback.
2.) Drake Maye, North Carolina
At 6’4" and 225+ lbs., Drake Maye is the biggest signal caller amongst the prospects in the first-round conversation. He’s used that size on the ground, where he has scored 16 rushing touchdowns over the last two seasons.
As a passer, Maye throws with touch and accuracy vertically and to the intermediate middle of the field. When protected, which wasn’t consistently the case for him in college, he can drive throws with a very strong base.
Maye’s confidence in 2023 led to recklessness at times, as seen during many of his nine interceptions. If his decision making slightly improves while he maintains his playmaking prowess, he’ll be a long-time NFL starter.
3.) Michael Penix Jr., Washington
A four-time college team captain, Michael Penix Jr. was reborn when he transferred to Washington. He threw for over 4,600 yards during both seasons with the Huskies, thriving under now Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb.
Penix has a howitzer of an arm that challenges every area of the field with upper-level velocity. On throws outside the numbers in the 10-19 yard range this season, he was 37 for 60 for 571 yards, seven touchdowns, and two interceptions.
What Penix doesn’t get enough credit for is his pre-snap ability. His internal clock and field vision allow him to get in rhythm, throwing with anticipation. Over the last two years, he was sacked just 16 times, understanding how to get the ball out.
A big part of his process will be his medicals with NFL teams after multiple injuries during his career at Indiana. He doesn’t offer the same mobile playmaking many of the top quarterbacks in this class do, but he’s the most accomplished pocket passer on film.
4.) Jayden Daniels, LSU
Yet another success story from the transfer portal, Jayden Daniels’ long college road ended with him holding the Heisman Trophy.
He is simply an electric player that uses his mobility to set up the aerial attack. He’s forced a jarring 101 missed tackles as a runner over the last two seasons. Daniels is not looking to scramble, he’s looking to be a legitimate runner.
While that leads to big-time production on the ground, he has to learn how to protect his slender frame. He’s taken some massive hits at the college level and they don’t get weaker in the NFL.
As a passer, Daniels has a compact and quick release when operating in structure. He’s an above average touch thrower that can drop the ball accurately into different levels of the field. His arm is the weakest of this top group, but he knows how to maximize it. His ability to drop throws in the bucket had him complete 35 of his 55 attempts of 20+ yards for 22 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in 2023.
Like many young quarterbacks, he prefers to see receivers open rather than consistently throw them open. He did improve under pressure in 2023 compared to previous seasons, but the sample size was small.
5.) J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
The National Champion Michigan Wolverines were led by an incredible defense and strong run game, but there were signs of promise in the steps J.J. McCarthy took from 2022 to 2023.
He’s tall but does not carry a lot of mass and is an adequate threat from a mobility standpoint. His ability to drive the ball in the intermediate area of the field is impressive when the offense requires. McCarthy’s upper and lower body are often in sync when throwing from the pocket or rolling out.
There is still clear risk in using a top-20 pick on McCarthy. He wasn’t often asked to be the driver of his offense (he threw for 230+ yards in just four games this season) and did not push the ball vertically as much as the other signal callers.
With his traits, a draft and stash for 1-2 years would be the ideal pathway for his development.
6.) Bo Nix, Oregon
Noticing a trend here? Penix, Daniels and Bo Nix all faced adversity when transferring to new programs and all found incredible success.
After throwing for over 3,500 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2022, Nix built off that in 2023 with 4,450 passing yards, 45 touchdowns, and just three interceptions. He was in command of Oregon’s offense, having no issue with the defenses he faced. It also helped to have 899 of his yards come from throws behind the line of scrimmage.
A key positive with Nix was his performance when under pressure, where he completed 43 of his 64 passes while averaging 9.7 yards per attempt. He only threw one interception when under pressure last season and more impressively only took six sacks.
Nix doesn’t have the physical gifts the five quarterbacks above possess, but he knows how to play point guard.
*All advanced stats for quarterbacks are from Pro Football Focus*
Top NFL Combine Snub
Every year a few prospects slip through the cracks and are surprisingly not invited to the NFL Combine.
Last year, defensive lineman Kobie Turner stood out as an omission. Fortunately for him, he was still selected in the third round and had a very good rookie season for the Rams.
This year, the most notable player left off is UCLA running back Carson Steele. In 2022 he ran for 1,556 yards and 14 touchdowns while at Ball State. After transferring to take on a higher level of competition, he had an average season for the Bruins as he ran for 847 yards and six touchdowns.
It was a bit of a surprise when he declared for the draft, but he was invited to the East-West Shrine Game to get an early start on his draft process. Steele is a big (6’1", 225 lbs.), creative runner that forced a whopping 96 missed tackles in 2022 (per PFF) and another 40 in 2023 with 122 less carries.
With a solid Pro Day, he should still hear his name called on Day 3 of the draft.
