NFL 2024: Betting AFC Team Win Totals

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NBC Sports Staff,

By
NBC Sports Staff

Published July 12, 2024 02:51 PM

Because the AFC’s Baltimore Ravens are the first to open their training camp let’s dive in to Win Totals in the AFC for the 2024 season.

NBC Sports Betting Analysts Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) and Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) researched rosters, schedules, and coaching staffs of every team in the AFC. Here are their findings and recommendations.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

2023 Record: 13-4 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
The main acquisition in the offseason for Baltimore was Derrick Henry.
But is a 30-year-old running back on the decline the answer for this team? NO.
The Ravens have arguably the toughest five-game stretch to start a season with Kansas City (A), Las Vegas (H), Dallas (A), Buffalo (H), and Cincinnati (A).
Baltimore doesn’t have a bye until Week 14.
I can’t buy into Baltimore this season.
Dalzell’s Dish: The Ravens UNDER 10.5 Wins (+112)

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Cincinnati Bengals

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
The Bengals don’t have a true RB1 (Zack Moss, Chase Brown) or TE1 (Jermaine Burton)
With Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins still united, this offense is dangerous regardless of the RB and TE spots.
Zac Taylor is one of the better coaches in the NFL.
With the most ideal schedule in the division, Cincy should bounce back and go from last to first in the division, or at least get to 11 wins.
Dalzell’s Dish: Cincinnati Bengals OVER 10.5 Wins (-134)

Cleveland Browns

2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
The Browns added Jerry Jeudy as the No. 2 WR but RB Nick Chubb is coming off an ACL injury.
The defense is expected to regress.
Most importantly, QB Deshaun Watson has played 12 games in two years for Cleveland.
The Browns have a rough three-game road stretch before three consecutive home outings entering the Week 10 bye.
Fade the Browns.
Dalzell’s Dish: Browns UNDER 8.5 Wins (+112)

Pittsburgh Steelers

2023 Record: 10-7 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
Pittsburgh lacked competency at QB last season.
Enter Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.
Add linebacker Patrick Queen, Donta Jackson, and Deshon Elliott to an already stout defense and Pittsburgh looks ready to make a run in the AFC North.
However, the wide receiver room is still too thin for the Steelers to score enough points for much to change.
There is value in the Over 8.5 wins at +122 because Mike Tomlin hasn’t had a losing season yet.
Dalzell’s Dish: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 8.5 Wins (+122)

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 10.5
The Bills have been one of the best home teams in the NFL the last half decade led by perennial MVP candidate Josh Allen.
However, the Bills’ depth has taken a hit and much of the supporting cast is new and unproven.
That depth of talent did much for the Bills in the past including helping the team overcome Allen’s largest (and maybe only) flaw: protetion of the football.
Allen had 22 turnovers last season. If he can’t protect the ball, expecting them to win 11 games with a thin roster is a stretch.
Brad’s Bet: Buffalo Bills UNDER 10.5 Wins (-150)

Miami Dolphins

2023 Record: 11.6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
With a healthy Tua Tagovailoa and Tyreek Hill, the Dolphins should have one of the best offenses in the NFL.
It is Year 2 with the speedy Devon Achane and the ever-reliable Raheem Mostert in the backfield.
As a result, Miami should easily have the best offense in the division.
Defensively, the Dolphins are a Top 5 unit.
The Bills, Jets, and Patriots are all at risk of regression, making it six winnable games for the Dolphins.
Brad’s Bet: Miami Dolphins OVER 9.5 Wins (-122).

New England Patriots

2023 Record: | Projected 2024 Win Total: 4.5
The Pats were one of 4 teams to win 4 games last season.
Four teams won four games or fewer last season, and the New England.
Now former Head Coach Bill Belichick may well have been the reason they even won 4.
Enter Jerod Mayo as Head Coach and either Drake Maye or Jacoby Brissett under center.
With a new coach and new quarterback for a franchise playing the 2nd most difficult schedule in the league, it’s hard to imagine this team winning five games.
They could be the worst team in the NFL.
Brad’s Bet: New England Patriot UNDER 4.5 Wins (+122)

New York Jets

2023 Record: 7-10 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
This win total comes down to Aaron Rodgers’s health and availability.
The Jets won seven games last season despite having the worst offense in the league.
They brought in new linemen to solidify their line and protect Rodgers.
With a top-three defense and a healthy Rodgers, they are a 10-win team.
Brad’s Bet: New York Jets OVER 9.5 Wins (-150)

AFC SOUTH

Houston Texans

2023 Record: 10-7 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 9.5
After winning 10 games last season, the Texans head into this season with high expectations.
Star QB CJ Stroud and Head Coach DeMeco Ryans have brought excitement back to Houston.
They have a demanding schedule, having to play 2023 division-winners Buffalo, Detroit, Dallas, Miami, Kansas City, and Baltimore.
However, this team is led by an MVP contender at QB in Stroud.
Brad’s Bet: Houston Texans OVER 9.5 Wins (-110)

Indianapolis Colts

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
The Colt’s offense was solid last season, even with star rookie QB Anthony Richardson’s injury.
Expect a massive leap from a healthy Richardson this season
I believe the Colts will make the playoffs for the 1st time since 2020.
Brad’s Bet: Indianapolis Colts OVER 8.5 Wins (-118)

Jacksonville Jaguars

2023 Record: 9-8 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
The Jaguars collapsed last season losing 5 of their final 6 to miss the playoffs.
On paper, the Jags look the part of a 9-win team.
However, there is a strong expectation that the other three teams in the AFC South will take a step forward.
If you believe more in those other three teams, the Jags’ win total seems a lot less attractive.
Brad’s Bet: Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 8.5 Wins (-115)

Tennessee Titans

2023 Record: 6-11 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 6.5
Tennessee struggled offensively and defensively last season.
There is excitement around second-year QB Will Levis, but is it warranted?
In addition, the Titans lost their bellcow, Derrick Henry.
Despite adding Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Boyd in the offseason, this team is expected to struggle again this season.
Brad’s Bet: Tennessee Titans UNDER 6.5 wins (-134)

AFC WEST

Denver Broncos

2023 Record: 8-9 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 5.5
Denver’s roster is one of the weakest in the NFL.
That iffy roster in conjunction with 6 road games in their first 10 all before the Bye Week will not help whomever Sean Payton puts under center.
The likely starting QB - Jarrett Stidham or rookie Bo Nix - do not inspire much confidence either.
This team could be drafting No. 1 in 2025.
Dalzell’s Dish: Denver Broncos UNDER 5.5 Wins (-120)

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Kansas City Chiefs

2023 Record: 11-6 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 11.5
Kansas City is attempting the Super Bowl 3-peat repeat
Everyone will be throwing their best shot at KC but a manageable schedule and strong 2024 Draft Class give the Chiefs another chance to run it back.
Key: Patrick Mahomes of course must stay healthy.
Dalzell’s Dish: Kansas City Chiefs OVER 11.5 Wins (-118)

Las Vegas Raiders

2023 Record: 8-9 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 6.5
The Raiders’ defense will be a driving force for this team to compete for a playoff spot, but...
Aidan O’Connell at QB will make or break this win total of 6.5.
The schedule is favorable early in the season with the Chargers (A), Ravens (A), Panthers (H), Browns (H), Broncos (A), Steelers (H), and Rams (A) in the first seven games.
Dalzell’s Dish: Las Vegas OVER 6.5 wins (-128).

Los Angeles Chargers

2023 Record: 5-12 | Projected 2024 Win Total: 8.5
College coaches transitioning into the NFL have traditionally struggled in Year 1 in the NFL.
Yes, Jim Harbaugh has been in the NFL prior to his time in Ann Arbor, but I do not expect this Chargers’ team to be an exception.
LA is without a true RB1, WR1, or TE1.
The rush defense has struggled over the last few seasons.
I’m not sure why the Chargers’ win total is as high as 8.5.
Dalzell’s Dish: Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 8.5 Wins (+118)

Another eight camps open on July 16^th. Check back with us Monday for a look at the NFC Team Win Totals.

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