While many point to the late afternoon game between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers as the game of the weekend in the NFL, the Battle for the top spot in the NFC North and frankly, at least the NFC if not the entire NFL takes place in the 1P window in Minneapolis when the Vikings (5-0) host the Detroit Lions (4-1).
The Lions take the field riding a 3-game winning streak with the most recent victory an overall thrashing of the Cowboys in Dallas by the score of 47-9…and it was not that close. Just how superior were the Lions against the Cowboys? Detroit did not punt or turn the ball over in the game and their 47 points were the 2nd most scored on the road in the franchise’s history.
The Vikings were last seen holding off the Jets by the score of 23-17 a couple Sundays ago in London. No question Minnesota’s start is one of the surprises of the young season. Sam Darnold (+1400) is in the MVP conversation after a head-turning start through 5 games. The Vikings’ offense has hit a bit of a speed bump, though, after a blistering start having scored just one TD in the last 5 quarters.
As we dive into this matchup, please note a couple key injuries. Aidan Hutchinson was placed on IR with a broken leg on Tuesday. That obviously affects the Detroit pass rush. Aaron Jones has been limited in practice due to an issue with his hip. When he was sidelined last game, the Minnesota ground game became stagnant.
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Game Details and How to watch Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings live Sunday
- Date: Sunday, October 20, 2024
- Time: 1 PM EST
- Site: U.S. Bank Stadium
- City: Minneapolis, MN
- TV/Streaming: FOX
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Game odds for Lions @ Vikings
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Detroit Lions (+105), Minnesota Vikings (-125)
- Spread: Vikings -1.5
- Total: 50.5
There has been some money on the Lions as the number has moved from Minnesota -2 down ½ point. The Total opened as the 2nd-highest of the week in the league and has inched up one point from there.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
NBC Sports Bet Best Bets
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas) thinks the number is big but still like Justin Jefferson OVER his receiving total:
“I don’t want any part of the spread in a divisional matchup unless I’m getting a home dog. The Vikings are the favorite. But I am taking Justin Jefferson OVER 91.5 receiving yards. It’s not necessarily a play on the DBs for the Lions. It’s actually the pass rush. Aiden Hutchinson is out for the season. There’s probably going to be no Aaron Jones, so the running game is not going to be great, and the pass rush won’t be great for the Lions.”
Important Fact: Jefferson has posted games of 12 catches for 192 yards and 1 TD, 6 catches for 141 yards and 1 TD, and 11 catches for 223 yards in his last 3 games against Detroit. As an aside, all 3 were losses by the Vikings.
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Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings team stats, betting trends
- The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
- The OVER is 4-1 in the Lions’ last 5 games in the NFC North.
- The Lions have won 4 of their last 5 games on the road against NFC North teams
- Jahmyr Gibbs has 6 rushes of 15 or more yards this season (T-4 in the NFL).
- The Vikings and the Lions have each allowed just a single player to gain 100 yards rushing against them this season.
- The Vikings’ defense is T2 in the NFL with 13 takeaways including a league-leading 11 INTs.
- The Lions’ boast the top scoring offense in the NFL (30.2ppg).
- The NFC North is 17-5 this season. It marks the 1st time in NFL history a division has had a combined win percentage of .750 or better through Week 6 or later in a season.
- The NFC North also features the top 4 teams in the entire NFL in terms of point differential. The Vikings (+63) sit atop the category followed by the Lions (+60), the Bears (+47), and the Packers (+41).
Quarterback matchup for Detroit @ Minnesota
Lions: Jared Goff – the 1st Lions’ QB since Dave Krieg in 1994 to pass for 300+ yards, 3 TDs, and a passer rating over 150 in the win over Dallas. The catalyst for the Lions’ current 3-game winning streak, Goff is completing 81.8% of his passes with 7 TDs and 1 INT while averaging 268.7 yards per game over the course of the last 3.
Vikings: Sam Darnold – struggled against the Jets in London completing just 14 of 31 passes for 179 yards with 0 TDs and 1 INT. His average per pass attempt was a mere 5.8 yards.
Lions and Vikings injury update
- Detroit S Brian Branch (knee) was limited in practice Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
- Detroit CB Carlton Davis III (quadriceps) did not practice Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
- Detroit DE Aidan Hutchinson (lower leg) was placed on IR Tuesday and is OUT for Sunday’s game.
- Detroit DT Kyle Peko (pectoral) was placed on IR Tuesday and is OUT for Sunday’s game.
- Minnesota RB Aaron Jones (hip) did not practice Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday’s game.
- Minnesota TE TJ Hockenson (knee) was a limited participant in Wednesday’s practice but has been ruled OUT for Sunday’s game.
- Minnesota CB Pat Jones II (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
- Minnesota DT Harrison Phillips (undisclosed) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game.
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Expert picks & predictions for Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Detroit @ Minnesota:
· Moneyline: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
· Spread: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Vikings against the spread
· Game Total: NBC Sports is leaning towards a play on the Total UNDER 50.5 points.
Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
- Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
