Buccaneers vs. Falcons prediction: Odds, expert picks, player news, injury updates, betting trends, and stats

By
NBC Sports Bet Staff,

By
NBC Sports Bet Staff

Published October 1, 2024 04:01 PM

A pivotal NFC South battle between the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) kicks off Week 5 of the NFL Schedule on Thursday Night.

The Buccaneers currently sit atop the division having won 3 of their 1^st 4 games. Baker Mayfield continues to be a revelation in Tampa. He has led the Bucs to convincing wins over Washington, Detroit, and Philadelphia and a head-scratcher of a blowout loss in Week 3 at home to Bo Nix and the Broncos. For their part, Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are 2-2 but could arguably be 0-4 or 4-0 just as easily as each of their games has been a one-score game with wins over the Eagles (1 point) and the Saints (2 points) and losses to the Steelers (8 points) and the Chiefs (5 points). One of these trends has to be snapped.

This rivalry has been competitive over the years with the Buccaneers winning 31 of the 61 games. The Falcons have won 2 of the last 3 though.

Lets dive into the numbers and see if we can find a few sweats.

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Game Details and How to watch Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Date: Thursday, October 3, 2024
Time: 8:20PM EST
Site: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
City: Atlanta, GA
TV/Streaming: Amazon PV

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Game odds for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Atlanta Falcons

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

Moneyline: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+105), Atlanta Falcons (-125)
Spread: Falcons -1.5 (-110)
Total: 43.5

This game opened at Falcons -2.5 juiced to Atlanta but has done an about face and dropped a full point while the Total has crept up ½ point.

NBC Sports Bet Best Bets

NBC Sports Betting Analyst Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) is expecting points in this game.
“I’ve been burned before on Thursday Night Football, but I am going back to the well here expecting a high-scoring, fun contest between these two offenses. Both pass offenses show huge advantages for me in this one. So, expecting some points, I’ll play over 43½.”

Buccaneers vs. Falcons team stats, betting trends

Tampa is 3-1 ATS through the season’s 1^st 4 weeks
Atlanta is 1-3 ATS through the season’s 1^st 4 weeks
Falcons’ RB Bijan Robinson has gained 224 yards rushing (55 carries) and 135 yards receiving (15 receptions)
Bucs’ rookie RB Bucky Irving has carried the ball 35 times for 203 yards and 1 TD
The Buccaneers have won on four of their last five visits to Atlanta
Three of the Falcons’ four games this season have gone UNDER the expected points Total

Quarterback matchup for Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Tampa Bay: Baker Mayfield – Has thrown for 984 yards including 8 TDs. Overall, completing 70.5% of his passes. Has thrown 2 INTs.
Atlanta: Kirk Cousins – Veteran is completing 64.7% of his passes for 864 yards including 4 TDs. Has also thrown 4 INTs.