With three weeks left in the NFL regular season, it’s now or never for the bubble teams who want a chance at making the playoffs, and they might need a little help from others to get there. Ahead of Sunday night’s meeting between the Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks, Steve Kornacki took a look at the latest NFC playoff chances for the lower seeds.
The NFC Wild Card situation
Right now, the Packers and Washington Commanders are safe (for now) as the No. 6 and No. 7 seeds, respectively, in the NFC, and the Los Angeles Rams are on the outside looking in.
With a win against the Seahawks, the Packers will virtually lock up that playoff spot (they had a 94% chance to make the playoffs entering Sunday). Meanwhile, the Commanders got lucky on Sunday afternoon as the New Orleans Saints had a failed two-point conversion attempt as time expired, allowing Washington to escape the Big Easy with a 20-19 win and, now, an 87% chance to make the playoffs.
The Rams are only a game behind the Packers and Commanders – still very much in the hunt. The problem? They lose a tiebreaker to either of the aforementioned teams.
Still, there is hope for Matthew Stafford and company, and that hope comes from the NFC West race.
Currently, the Seahawks lead the NFC West and the Rams are second. If the Seahawks beat the Packers, they stay in first place and have a 62% chance of making the postseason, but with a loss, the fortunes reverse – the Rams’ probability of making the playoffs jumps to 54% while the Seahawks’ drops to 37%. LA would move into first because it wins the tiebreaker against Seattle, and the Seahawks would fall all the way out of the Wild Card conversation as well.
They’re big stakes now, but they could be even more interesting by the time the Seahawks and Rams meet in Week 18 – the final week of the regular season.
Colts’ playoff prospects bleak, Broncos can lock spot with win over Chargers
If the Indianapolis Colts had beaten the Denver Broncos Sunday, they would’ve had an almost 75% chance to make the playoffs, but after losing 31-13, the Colts now have just a 15% chance to play in the postseason. Meanwhile, the Broncos are in great shape and can clinch a playoff birth with a win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday.
It’s going to come down to the Chargers and Colts for the final AFC spot, with the advantage going to LA.
The Colts have the easiest schedule in the league. A best case scenario for Indianopolis comes in three parts: they win-out to get to 9-8 (they face the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars to close the season), the Chargers lose to the Broncos Thursday, and the Chargers lose one of their final two games (they’ll face the Patriots and Raiders).
Those hypothetical Chargers losses are crucial for the Colts, or Indianapolis doesn’t have a chance to see past Week 18.
