When last we saw Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens, they were getting outsmarted in their own stadium in the AFC Championship Game by Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. The game was there for the taking but time and again Jackson was more Clark Kent than the Superman he was during the regular season. The offense under first-year offensive coordinator Todd Monken abandoned the run game that had dominated so many opponents during the regular season.
Enter Derrick Henry.
After eight seasons in Nashville, the All Pro brings his 2000 carries and 9500 career rushing yards to Charm City in 2024. Henry has his detractors who claim his time as a bell weather back is behind him, but Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) of Bet the EDGE thinks Henry is the outlier, the rare running back who will continue to produce in his 30s. In fact, he sees more value in him in a couple of Futures Markets than any of his new teammates including the 2-time MVP Jackson.
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“The most interesting one to me is Derrick Henry, who is 40:1 to win offensive player of the year. He’s in the 15:1 range to win the rushing title, which I think is interesting. I think with Henry, I think it’s gone again a little under the radar where last year, because the Titans were in such shambles and the offensive line was so terrible, and he didn’t look like King Henry, the guy who was winning Offensive Player of the Year a few years ago, but his underlying stats, he was still second in PFF grade among all running backs. He was among the Top 5 running backs in terms of carries (280). He was 6th in terms of yards after contact per attempt (2.0). I still think he is largely the same guy.”
As Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) and Croucher discussed on the latest episode of Bet the EDGE, if the Ravens are to return to at least the AFC Title Game, they will need a back who can absorb a portion of the punishment Jackson has endured in the past. The Ravens need a run game they can depend on in the playoffs. King Henry is that guy. The 2015 Heisman Trophy winner does not seem to age. He is the outlier according to Croucher.
“I think that Henry might just be such a physical specimen and a freak that the laws of science and nature may just not apply to him…There was a great article in The Athletic recently about the insane lengths that Derrick Henry goes in terms of taking care of his body. There’s no James Harden equity here. Derrick Henry’s going to put himself in the best position possible to succeed. He’s going to be in optimal shape, like he is every season.”
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King Henry averaged 4.2 yards per rush attempt last season playing behind what was simply a bad offensive line and got minimal help from the quarterback position. Yes, the offensive line in Baltimore has questions with at least three new starters stepping in to play alongside Ronnie Stanley, but Lamar Jackson is the reigning MVP. He commands attention which will create favorable matchups for the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner.
“I am just kind of done doubting Derrick Henry…I’ll believe in the underlying stats falling off when they actually do. So, I don’t know if just Derrick Henry in a backfield where Lamar Jackson creates all this extra rushing value and the team’s expected to win 10 or 11 games, can he really be 40:1 to be Offensive Player of the Year?
Dinsick did not disagree with the thought there is value in Henry at such a big price, but he is hesitant to get involved in the market.
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“I guess I just worry a hair that he’s going to have to get every rushing touchdown, or else there’s going to be a little bit of a reason to pivot to somebody who’s a little bit more effective in the passing game, I suppose, if it comes down to a running back. I also just have a general sentiment that the OPOY market feels way too crowded this year, like there are a lot of good candidates, and Henry’s going to have to stay healthy in order to be the guy…but then again, he is built different.”
King Henry is simply built differently than even the extraordinary NFLer and he will need to be again in 2024 in order to lead the NFL in rushing (+1500) let alone warrant consideration for Offensive Player of the Year (+4000).
