Every team in the AFC West other than the 2-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are in transition. Let’s give a brief overview of each prior to diving into the odds and offering a best bet for each.
Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes seem determined to resurrect their high-octane offense this season. They won the division and ultimately the Super Bowl again last year, but the offense was pedestrian averaging just 21 points/game. That ranked 14th in the NFL and easily the worst of Mahomes’ illustrious career. The speed of Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown on the outside should add some pop to the offense…assuming they can catch Mahomes’ missiles (they have had their issues in previous seasons with other quarterbacks). The Chiefs must overcome a couple losses on the defensive side of the ball, but Steve Spagnuolo has found a way every season to build a winner in KC on that side of the ball.
Read More: Rotoworld Fantasy Team Previews
The Denver Broncos will have a new quarterback in 2024 and expectations are rookie Bo Nix will lead the offense for Sean Payton sooner than later. The Broncos’ head coach has raved about the Oregon QB. Does that put Nix in the running for Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1800)? Perhaps it is worth a little lunch money. Ultimately, though, the Broncos remain in the early years of the rebuild. They should be better overall with the Broncos having a year of experience in Payton’s system but the talent disparity between them and the rest of the division and the majority of the AFC is still significant.
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Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL in case you missed it. He inherited a team in the Los Angeles Chargers who were in salary cap hell. So almost predictably, Harbaugh jettisoned his top and well-paid wide receivers and used the savings to sign a blocking tight end and a couple running backs. No question the name of the game is ground and pound in SoCal. That may in part be to keep a thin defense off the field. Joey Bosa needs to stay healthy and put some fear in opposing quarterbacks if this defense is to have any success. It is reasonable for Chargers’ fans to trust Harbaugh, but his plan is the long game and not the sudden lightning bolt fans might prefer.
The Raiders played inspired football following the dismissal of Josh McDaniels, but this is a franchise mired in mediocrity – just good enough to compete for the final wild card spot but not good enough to consistently grab it. Can Antonio Pierce change that? Only if he can get better and more consistent play out of the quarterback position. It appears Aidan O’Connell will be the starter with Gardner Minshew riding shotgun. As with any young quarterback, O’Connell needs reps to develop and better play from his offensive line to allow for those reps to mean something. The loss of the under-valued Josh Jacobs is substantial. Maxx Crosby and the defense should be better in 2024 due to the addition of Christian Wilkins and the continued development of Malcolm Koonce. That will take some pressure off a secondary lacking talent.
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Let’s dive into the Futures Market with NBC Sports’ Betting Analyst Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) and find a few sweats.
- AFC West Odds: +1800 | AFC Odds: +9000 | Super Bowl Odds: +15000
- Head Coach: Sean Payton (2nd Season) | 2023 Record: 8-9
- Best Bet: Zach Wilson to be Broncos’ starting QB Week 1 (+400)
- Let’s start with the fact that short of fading them each week, there are not too many angles to attack the Broncos.
- Next, I know Payton raves about Bo Nix, but will he throw him into the line of fire Week 1?
- Nix is still -400 to be the Broncos’ starter in Week 1, but Wilson has the experience and stronger arm to close the gap. Wilson is showing that he has the better arm of the two.
- At +400 and with few options on the board, I am not betting the mortgage on it, but I will take a shot on Zach Wilson.
- AFC West Odds: -230 | AFC Odds: +300 | Super Bowl Odds: +550
- Head Coach: Andy Reid (12th Season) | 2023 Record: 11-6
- Best Bet: Chiefs to win the Super Bowl (+550)
- Last season the Chiefs became the 9th team to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
- Since the late 60’s no one has three-peated.
- If KC even splits with the Ravens and Bengals the 1st two weeks, +550 may be long gone.
- AFC West Odds: +900 | AFC Odds: +6000 | Super Bowl Odds: +10000
- Head Coach: Antonio Pierce (2nd Season) | 2023 Record: 8-9
- Best Bet: Maxx Crosby - Defensive Player of the Year (+700)
- Sacks grab the attention of voters in this category and Maxx finished with 14.5 sacks last season after 12.5 in 2022.
- With Christian Wilkins demanding attention alongside of him, Crosby’s sack totals may rise yet again.
- Fun Fact: Donated to his alma mater in the offseason and Eastern Michigan named the field after him.
- AFC West Odds: +320 | AFC Odds: +2000 | Super Bowl Odds: +3500
- Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (1st Season) | 2023 Record: 5-12
- Best Bet: Justin Herbert to lead NFL in passing yards (+4000)
- This is a mispriced market as Justin Herbert should never be a 40-to-1 option in any passing market.
- I understand that Los Angeles has a rookie head coach and an entirely new offense that will look to establish the run, but that team will face many a negative game script due to an overall talent deficiency.
- Herbert totaled between 4,300 and 5,000 passing yards in his first three seasons, proving he can put up big numbers while losing with injured receivers.
Up Next: Betting the NFC South.
Stay tuned.
Previously:
Betting the NFC West
