Mock drafts go through an evolution for each draft class. The first one serves as an informational tool to introduce the best prospects heading into the college football season. As the year goes on, mock drafts become a little bit more finetuned and once the college season nears conclusion, the blue chip players and highly-demanded quarterbacks fall into place. By the time April comes around each year, every analyst wants to predict as much as the first round as possible.
Yet so often, besides big boards, what we would do gets lost in the shuffle.
This is my one crack at that method.
I used a combination of my rankings, team needs, schemes and fits to come to these conclusions below. These are the picks I would make if I were in the GM chair for each team’s first selection.
RELATED: Connor Rogers’ NFL Draft Big Board
1. Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams is the best quarterback in the draft, a full field reader with a lively arm and escapability. GM Ryan Poles has done a tremendous job this offseason beefing up the offense that the young signal caller will take over.
2. Washington Commanders
Drake Maye, QB, UNC
One of the toughest decisions in the draft, but I’m going with the upside of the big-bodied passer in Maye. He throws to the middle of the field very well and if you go back to his 2022 tape, he’s way more athletic than given credit for.
3. New England Patriots
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
Yes, the Patriots need a quarterback of the future, but I see a gap from Maye to the next tier of Michael Penix Jr. and Jayden Daniels. Harrison Jr. is an excellent prospect who makes the Patriots offense better in the short and long term. Plus, if they are bad again, they will have a rookie quarterback from the 2025 draft walk into a way better situation.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Nabers becomes the D.J. Moore of Arizona’s offense. His explosiveness with and without the ball will give Kyler Murray a dynamic threat who can line up everywhere.
RELATED: Top 30 WR draft rankings and NFL player comps
5. Los Angeles Chargers
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
I would’ve loved it if one of the top two receivers make it to this spot, but Joe Alt is far from a bad consolation prize. The bigger decision here is if the Chargers are comfortable moving him to the right side, but I think he would be fine with his athleticism. This is how Harbaugh wants to build the identity of his team and with his track record, the GM should trust him.
6. New York Giants
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
Nabers or Harrison Jr. are my dream picks here, but I see Bowers as the third best offensive weapon in this draft. The Giants should operate with the thought that Darren Waller is not much of a factor in their future and Bowers would line up everywhere in Brian Daboll’s offense.
7. Tennessee Titans
Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
The buzz around Fashanu has seemingly died, but I will gladly stand on the table for him as a top 10 pick in this scenario. He’s a really gifted pass protector and will plug in at left tackle next to Peter Skoronski.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
If I’m the Falcons, I’m answering every call I get about trading this selection. They need a top defender, but they can get that even if they move back. Verse is my top-ranked pass rusher; I love his heavyweight fighter hands that he throws at tackles.
RELATED: Rogers’ NFL Draft EDGE rankings
9. Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
I see a lot of Keenan Allen in Odunze’s game and in this situation he gets to play with him for at last a year. The Bears rolling out 11 personnel of Allen, Odunze and D.J. Moore seems unfair.
10. New York Jets
Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington
The Jets see the top three receivers and Bowers come off the board in front of them in this scenario, but land one of the most versatile offensive linemen in the draft. Fautanu can push to start at left guard and fill in at tackle if one of the veterans gets banged up. I think he’s a top 10 player in this class.
11. Minnesota Vikings
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
Penix sees the field extremely well pre- and post-snap, while showing off a howitzer of an arm. His pocket passing ability would transition nicely to Kevin O’Connell’s offense, challenging all areas of the field with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
12. Denver Broncos
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
There’s an argument to be had that J.J. McCarthy’s skill set fits better here, but I like the floor of Jayden Daniels better. He’s a snappy touch thrower with true playmaking ability on the ground.
RELATED: Rogers’ NFL Draft QB rankings
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Taliese Fuaga, OL, Oregon State
Even with Josh Jacobs off to Green Bay, it feels like the Raiders will be a run heavy, smash mouth football team. Fuaga is the poster prospect for that and seamlessly plugs into the right side of their offensive line.
14. New Orleans Saints
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
You can argue the Saints need help at both tackle spots right now. Mims played right tackle for Georgia, but he also practiced on the left side too. He’s nearly impossible to get around or through with his size and length in pass protection.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
DeJean in Gus Bradley’s defense is a dream landing spot. His instincts, ball skills, tackling and punt return ability will make him an impact player.
16. Seattle Seahawks
JC Latham, OL, Alabama
I have concerns about Latham’s pass protection on an island at tackle right away, but in this scenario he is a plug-and-play guard for Seattle. His grip strength and lower body power is a weapon in the run game.
RELATED: Rogers’ NFL Draft OL rankings
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The size, speed and length of a cornerback duo of Mitchell and Tyson Campbell is what defensive coordinators pray for. He’s passed every test of this draft process with flying colors.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois
This is a tough situation with the top right tackles off the board, but Newton is one of the best defenders in the draft. I like his overall burst, pursuit speed and ability to stack and shed.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
Turner was extremely productive in college just from being a great athlete with length. If he varies his pass rush plan, look out. It’s fun picturing his versatility in a defensive front with Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Michael Hoecht.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
It will be fascinating to see how the Steelers handle their needs at wide receiver, center and cornerback because I love the depth of all three groups. In this spot I can’t pass on Thomas, there simply aren’t many 6-foot-3, 209-pound receivers as explosive as him.
RELATED: Teams most likely to move up in NFL draft
21. Miami Dolphins
Graham Barton, OL, Duke
This is one of my favorite fits in the draft. Barton’s movement skills and hand usage make him a menace in the zone run game. He’d slide in at guard on Miami’s offensive line, despite playing tackle for Duke the last three seasons.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
There is risk here in taking Wiggins over both Alabama cornerbacks (Terrion Arnold and Kool-Aid McKinstry), but neither of those players move or run like Wiggins can. He needs to fill out his frame, but keep in mind he won’t turn 21 until the end of his first NFL training camp.
23. Minnesota Vikings
Byron Murphy, DL, Texas
Brian Flores was able to scheme pressure in 2023, but with a front that has Murphy, Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel life will be much easier. Murphy’s ability to get off the ball and shoot gaps gives interior blockers a lot of trouble.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Jackson Powers-Johnson, IOL, Oregon
While he was only a one-year starter, Powers-Johnson has some of the best tape in the draft. He rarely ever gets beat in pass protection and although he carries a lot of mass for the position, he moves well. It’s fun watching him wipe out defenders in the screen game.
25. Green Bay Packers
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
Arnold played both inside and outside during his time at Alabama and logged over 300 snaps in press coverage (Per PFF). He’s still more of an athlete at the position rather than an anticipator of throws and route combinations, but that shows what kind of ceiling he has. It’s an added bonus that he’s an aggressive, above average tackler for a defensive back.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Latu’s pass-rushing tool box is the deepest of the edge rushers in this draft. He’ll come into the NFL with a full arsenal of moves and the ability to counter, which is impressive for a rookie.
27. Arizona Cardinals
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
McKinstry is an extremely competitive press corner who uses his long arms to make plays at the catch point. Jonathan Gannon’s secondary would look much more well rounded with the addition of a plug-and-play cover corner like McKinstry.
RELATED: Rogers’ NFL Draft CB rankings
28. Buffalo Bills
Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon
Franklin is a true perimeter threat with a great first step to explode into his routes. With Josh Allen’s limitless arm, a field stretcher like Franklin will really open up this offense.
29. Detroit Lions
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Aidan Hutchinson is on his way to stardom and the Lions took a flyer on Marcus Davenport, but they shouldn’t stop there. Robinson is as explosive as they come, but he needs development to find consistency. This defense can ease him in, allowing him to pin his ears back on passing downs to wreak havoc.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, Washington
Polk’s energetic, fearless style of play fits the identity of the Ravens perfectly. He’ll go over the middle of the field and make tough grabs with tremendous concentration. Plus, I think he’s the best run-blocking receiver in the draft.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Guyton is built like a small forward and moves like a tight end. He only started one year (at right tackle) for Oklahoma and his hand placement needs work, but he’s the type of athlete and body type you bet on at the position.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Ricky Pearsall, WR, Florida
Pearsall is an excellent separator with reliable hands who can play inside and outside. He would quickly establish himself as a go-to target for Patrick Mahomes.
33. Carolina Panthers
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Mitchell hits cruise control on too many routes and while run blocking, but his natural movement skills and red zone presence is exactly what the Panthers need on the outside. While I have Georgia’s Ladd McConkey ranked higher, they have Diontae Johnson handling what would be his role.
42. Houston Texans
Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan
Sainristil is my top slot cornerback in this draft, but I think the former wide receiver also offers outside versatility. Between him and Derek Stingley, DeMeco Ryans’ defense would have two ballhawks.
54. Cleveland Browns
Junior Colson, LB, Michigan
Colson creates chaos in the middle of the field with explosive run stops and sideline-to-sideline range. The Browns have a lot of talent up front, but his skill set fits perfectly in the middle.
