It is an anomaly in the NFL when a team wins the Super Bowl without either a Hall of Fame quarterback or a QB on his rookie deal. The Nick Foles and Joe Flaccos of the world are unicorns. In a league where quality quarterbacking is at a premium, it is no wonder teams decide to pivot earlier and earlier in a season away from the pursuit of a playoff berth and towards a top pick in the NFL Draft.
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No telling for sure how many franchise quarterbacks will be in the 2024 NFL Draft, but the general consensus has two elite prospects at the top of all draft boards: Caleb Williams of USC and Drake Maye of North Carolina.
Make no mistake. More than a few teams are dreaming about Drake and whispering about Williams as they plot out a strategy aimed at drafting in the Top 2 on April 25 in Detroit.
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Some teams are more obvious about it than others but make no mistake: Tanking is en vogue in 2023 with nearly half the regular season remaining.
Let’s run through the top candidates, based on the lowest Over/Under Win Totals, to claim one of those top two spots.
New York Giants
Current Over/Under Win Total: Over 3.5 (-110) / Under 3.5 (-110)
Current Record: 2-8
Current Streak: Lost 3
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .500
Overall Strength of Schedule: .549
Toughest Remaining Opponents: Philadelphia Eagles (2), New Orleans Saints
Easiest Remaining Opponents: New England Patriots, LA Rams
Make no mistake, the Giants are in full tank mode. No other reason to be starting Tommy DeVito each week. Having made the playoffs last season and being only in Year 2 of the rebuild, the firm of Schoen & Daboll do not appear to be fighting for their jobs. That is a luxury not all front offices and coaches on this list have.
Carolina Panthers
Current Over/Under Win Total: Over 3.5 (-115) / Under 3.5 (-105)
Current Record: 1-8
Current Streak: Lost 2
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .473
Overall Strength of Schedule: .453
Toughest Remaining Opponents: Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars
Easiest Remaining Opponents: Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers
The Panthers have a clear path to one of the top two picks… only they do not own the selection. They traded it to Chicago last year in order to draft Bryce Young. There is no reason for this team to tank. That said, the Panthers may not be able to help it.
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Arizona Cardinals
Current Over/Under Win Total: Over (NA) / Under 4.5 (-110)
Current Record: 2-8
Current Streak: Won 1
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .578
Overall Strength of Schedule: .519
Toughest Remaining Opponents: Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers
Easiest Remaining Opponents: Chicago Bears, LA Rams
Frankly, I am not sure it makes sense to play Kyler Murray and win games. This is a team void of talent in many key areas. No team drafting No. 1 overall in the past 10 years has had more than three wins. Circle December 24 as the Cardinals take on the Bears that evening in a game with huge implications for the 2024 NFL Draft.
New England Patriots
Current Over/Under Win Total: Over 4.5 (-130) / Under 4.5 (+110)
Current Record: 2-8
Current Streak: Lost 3
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .492
Overall Strength of Schedule: .549
Toughest Remaining Opponents: Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers
Easiest Remaining Opponents: New York Jets, New York Giants
Circle November 26 on your respective calendars. That is the date the Giants and Patriots meet at MetLife Stadium. The winner will leave the stadium a big loser as they will all but insure they do not select in the Top 2 in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Chicago Bears
Current Over/Under Win Total: Over 5.5 (-125) / Under 5.5 (+105)
Current Record: 3-7
Current Streak: 1 Win
Remaining Strength of Schedule: .530
Overall Strength of Schedule: .497
Toughest Remaining Opponents: Detroit Lions (2), Minnesota Vikings
Easiest Remaining Opponents: Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons
Justin Fields is expected back under center in Week 11 and he is fighting for his very existence with the Bears. No way Chicago garners one of the Top 2 picks come April, but they own Carolina’s pick as well so they can get further tape on their current quarterback. If Fields plays well enough to keep the job, think of the haul the Bears would get trading the Carolina pick…assuming it finishes Top 2.
With all this information in hand, lets plot out the way we see it unfolding.
Chicago is not a horse to be backed in this race. The Bears own Carolina’s pick and mortgaged key draft capital at the trade deadline to be better today. Couple those factors with Justin Fields returning to the lineup and it is doubtful the Bears go winless the rest of the way and they’d have to in order to have any shot at either of the top spots. They do own the tiebreaker as owners of the easiest overall schedule among these five clubs, but that will not be enough to get them to the Promised Land…with this pick.
The Cardinals are also not likely to garner one of the top two picks. They win all tiebreakers due to the difficulty of their schedule, however, the return of Kyler Murray makes them less likely to lose their remaining games. Does Murray make them a threat to win more than they lose down the stretch? No sir. But he can get the Cards a couple wins and that is probably one too many to get a Top 2 pick.
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New England is “suddenly” a hot mess. The Patriots may well undergo their first real overhaul of the organization in decades at the end of the season. Until then, though, no shot Bill Belichick is trying to lose. He is too hot in his pursuit of Don Shula’s record for most wins in the storied history of the NFL. For that reason, expect the Pats to win at MetLife if nowhere else for the remainder of the season. That victory, however, will likely be enough to doom them to picking in the three spot at best on April 25.
Carolina’s schedule is the “easiest” of this collection. Their prize is they win all tiebreakers as a result. It’s a booby prize, though, as they do not own the pick. Thus, they have zero incentive to lose. Doubtful they win more than two more games though, which gives them a good chance to pick in the Top 2.
That leaves us with the Giants. They are dreadful and they seem OK with that. Otherwise, why start Tommy DeVito! So long as DeVito is their starter (and maybe no matter who lines up under center) New York will be sizable underdogs every week except the Sunday they host the Pats. The line will be tighter but they will still be underdogs. The New York Giants will without question land one of the Top 2 picks in the NFL Draft.
Tanking is real. As painful as it is for the fans, it makes sense. You can’t win without a quarterback. If you find odds, might make sense to sprinkle a little on the Giants and the Panthers before it gets much later.
*all odds courtesy of DraftKings
