On Wednesday, the Cardinals will release Kyler Murray, the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. Those inclined to bet on propositions like a player’s next team regard the Vikings as the clear favorites to sign him.
On DraftKings, Murray’s odds have moved from -110 to -295. The next team is the Jets at +350.
The Dolphins are at +550, with the Falcons at +650. The Browns are +800. The Steelers are +1300, the Colts are +1600. The Rams are +2000.
The offensive rookie of the year and two-time Pro Bowler had three solid seasons in Arizona. The next four seasons, which were marred by an ill-advised homework clause and a torn ACL suffered in December 2022, did not go nearly as well.
Making Murray more attractive is the possibility that he’ll do a one-year, $1.3 million contract, with the Cardinals paying him $35.5 million.
The first question is whether he wants to play right away, or whether he’s content to join a team like the Rams as a backup, with the goal of hitting the reset button in advance of 2027. Given his skills, why spend a season on the sideline? He should be looking to play now, with the goal of playing well enough that another big contract will come his way next March, if not sooner.
Tua Tagovailoa’s time as the starting quarterback of the Dolphins ended on a Monday night in December against the Steelers. Soon, we’ll know whether the Dolphins will be trading or releasing him.
The past errors in the handling of Tua’s contract don’t matter. Obviously, the Dolphins never should have swapped his fifth-year option in 2024 for a contract worth $53.1 million annually. They were bidding against themselves, and they won — and lost.
Now, the Dolphins owe him $54 million for 2026. They’ll absorb $99.2 million in dead-cap charges over 2026 and 2027 if he’s released. The only way to blunt that impact is to trade him. The only way to trade him is to attach assets to his contract. (His contract could be tucked into a broader trade in order to make it less obvious, like the Rams did when they added an extra first-round pick to the trade that brought Matthew Stafford to L.A. and unloaded Jared Goff’s remaining guarantees. It would be much more obvious this time around.)
The question moving forward is whether Tua will become the next first-round quarterback who thrives with another team.
His situation is different than folks like Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith. Tua played well enough to get the team that drafted him to give him a a-market-is-the-market-level deal. In 2023, he started all 17 games and led the league in passing yardage (4,624). The prior season, he led the league in touchdown percentage (6.3), yards per attempt (8.9), and passer rating (105.5).
The knock has been that Tua has had too many head injuries, and that (as former teammate Xavien Howard said after the Week 1 game at Indianapolis in 2025) he reverts to “panic mode” when his first read isn’t open. As the 2025 season went on, he wasn’t sufficiently taking care of the ball. That eventually got him benched.
But Tua is hardly the only quarterback who can’t whip up chicken salad on the fly, or who has turnovers. And he’s good enough to play, for someone. Under the right circumstances, he could be as good as he was at his best in Miami.
The Jets need a quarterback. He’s 8-0 all-time against them, with a passer rating of 101.0. The Falcons need a quarterback, too. Tua torched them in Atlanta last season, with four touchdown passes in a 34-10 romp.
Look at Atlanta’s roster. Bijan Robinson. Drake London. Kyle Pitts Sr. The offensive line is good enough to buy Tua time. The defense has talent (the availability of James Pearce Jr. is currently up in the air). They finished in a three-way tie with the Panthers and Bucs last year, at 8-9. Put Tuta indoors for eight home games (the ninth will be played in Madrid) and two road games (New Orleans and Minnesota), and maybe he could thrive. (That said, there could be a few cold-weather games, since the Falcons will play in 2026 at Green Bay, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Washington.)
The Vikings are kicking tires on any/every available quarterback, too. They have nine indoor home games (including a visit from the Dolphins) and two road games in a dome at the Saints and Lions. (But, yes, there will be potential cold-weather contests at the Bears, Packers, Jets, and Patriots.)
With the Dolphins owing him $54 million in 2026, Tua could do a one-year, $1.3 million deal with a new team and stick the Dolphins for the $52.7 million balance. That makes him a low-risk, potential high-reward option. And if a coach is confident that he can scheme up plays that will allow Tua to find an open receiver quickly and to keep him from taking needless hits, he could do better than expected in his second NFL stop.
There’s still no guarantee it’ll happen in 2026. Because the Dolphins owe him so much money, they could keep him. It would be awkward, for both sides. But it’s possible. And the Dolphins could choose to keep him on the roster in the hopes that some team will eventually realize that: (1) it still needs a quarterback; and (2) it could do a lot worse than Tua Tagovailoa.
Sure, another $3 million (in 2027 salary) becomes fully guaranteed on Friday. But what’s another $3 million, when they already owe him $54 million?
The Dolphins are set to part ways with two more veteran members of the roster.
NFL Media reports that the team will release fullback Alec Ingold and Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that they are expected to release kicker Jason Sanders.
Ingold was set to have a salary of $3.55 million this year with a cap hit of more than $5 million. The Dolphins will realize over $3 million in cap space by parting ways with their fullback from the last four seasons.
Sanders and the Dolphins were reportedly trying to work out a new contract, but cutting him will provide nearly $4 million in savings.
The Dolphins have also parted ways with wide receiver Tyreek Hill, edge rusher Bradley Chubb, wide receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and offensive lineman James Daniels. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is also expected to be out as the Dolphins remake their roster under new head coach Jeff Hafley and General Manager Jon-Eric Sullivan.
The Miami Dolphins have a problem. And there’s apparently only one solution to it.
They need to release quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
A trade is looking less and less likely. If a trade happens, it would have to be a Brock Osweiler-type deal, with the Dolphins giving Tua’s new team something significant to take on Tua’s contract.
The Dolphins owe him $54 million in 2026, fully guaranteed. They’ll absorb a $99.2 million cap charge if/when they cut him.
As to the difficulty of making a trade happen, consider this. Via Jonathan Jones of CBS Sports, an unnamed “high-ranking team executive” said that he “considered taking on Tagovailoa if the Dolphins would send a first-round pick to take on the freight of his contract.”
In 2017, the Texans sent a second-round pick in 2018 and a 2017 sixth-round pick to the Browns to get them to absorb Osweiler’s contract, which had $16 million in full guarantees that year. (Houston received a 2017 fourth-round pick in return.)
In 2021, the Rams did it in a more subtle fashion, essentially tucking an extra first-round pick into the Matthew Stafford trade to get the Lions to assume Jared Goff’s guarantees.
Whether the Dolphins find a taker for Tua remains to be seen. The compensation sent with Tua’s contract will become less obvious if it’s part of a bigger trade.
Regardless, the Dolphins will have to give someone else something valuable to take on a large chunk of the $54 million Tua is owed this year, thanks to an ill-advised contract that former G.M. Chris Grier gave to Tagovailoa two years ago.
The Jonnu Smith experiment in Pittsburgh has ended.
Adam Schefter of ESPN reports that the Steelers will be releasing the veteran tight end.
Smith was entering the final year of his contract. He was due to make $7 million in 2026. He’ll leave behind a $3.872 million dead cap charge.
(Smith is represented by agent Drew Rosenhaus. The scoop from Schefter is completely and totally unrelated to his recent effort to question the accuracy of the official 40-yard dash time at the Scouting Combine from another Rosenhaus client, former Ohio State receiver Carnell Tate — even though the flaws from the hand timing of Tate’s performance potentially affected every other player who participated in the event, none of which Schefter publicly scrutinized.)
In 17 games last year, with seven starts, Smith caught 38 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns. It was a sharp drop from his 884-yard performance a year earlier in Miami.
Smith was part of the trade that brought defensive back Jalen Ramsey to Pittsburgh, while sending safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back to Miami.
A nine-year veteran, the 30-year-old Smith has played for the Titans, Patriots, Falcons, Dolphins, and Steelers. He’ll become a free agent once released.
