The idea was the easy part.
Pulling it off was the real challenge.
But let me back up for a second.
I have a very simple goal.
In my mind, as Loki would say, I have a glorious purpose.
And that purpose is to get every fantasy-football-loving man, woman and child to try out Guillotine Leagues.
This column isn’t about that, promise. Stick with me – you’ll like this. But quickly, as I have mentioned many times before in this column, and on my Fantasy Football Happy Hour show, I absolutely LOVE playing Guillotine Leagues. It’s by far my favorite way to play fantasy football and everyone I have gotten to try it so far says the same thing. “This is now my favorite way to play fantasy football.”
So, that’s all I really need to do. If I can just get you to try the damn thing, you’ll absolutely love it. I know you will. And now is the perfect time to try it because among the many awesome things about it is that you can start playing a Guillotine League AT ANY TIME.
Yeah, because of the way the game is played you can start a league whenever you want during the NFL season. You just need one more person in the league than there are weeks left in the season. This is Week 8 – meaning there are 11 weeks left in the season. So, you could start a league this week with anywhere from 12 down to two people.
So, that’s where I started. I have two goals, right? Promote the Guillotine League platform and promote the fact that you can start a league midseason. (Oh, and that it’s free to play. There are paid leagues if you want to compete against others for money, but you can also start or play in a league with friends or strangers 100% free).
I love the fact that if you just lost Chris Godwin and Brandon Aiyuk in your season-long league you may feel your fantasy season is over, but in a Guillotine, there is so much turnover and there are so many star players available in free agency every week that injuries like those don’t kill you. So, I want to promote that.
I’m so passionate about Guillotine Leagues that I bought the company. So, yeah, I am ALL IN. All In in a real way, not a made-up Jerry Jones way. It’s my obsession. It’s my love. I feel, just like when I was starting out in the 90’s and working so hard to get people to just try playing fantasy football. I feel that it’s my calling. My mission.
It’s my glorious purpose.
So, the thought I have is an obvious one: Why not start a celebrity league?
When trying to promote something, people have used celebrities since the start of time to help them out. Right or wrong, we are a celebrity-obsessed culture and if you can get a celebrity to, in some way, attach themselves to whatever you’re trying to accomplish, it helps. It helps amplify it. It helps make it seem more popular. It helps bring a level of importance to it.
So, the idea is very simple.
The execution of it, however, is actually the complete opposite.
You think getting YOUR league together is a pain? Well, try doing that with a bunch of celebrities who don’t know each other in the middle of the season.
My first thought is that they need to be celebrities who actually play fantasy football. I know that seems obvious, but I’ve been around long enough, and been involved in enough celebrity endeavors, that sometimes it’s the celebrity participating in the league, but many times it’s, like, their publicist’s assistant that is actually doing it.
At this point in my life, I am fairly well aware of almost every celebrity of note who plays fantasy football, so there have definitely been times where I’ve seen a website or show promote a celebrity fantasy football league, and I just laugh to myself because I know for a fact the celebrity they are touting absolutely does NOT play fantasy football. Because I’ve met them and asked, and they’ve told me to my face they don’t play. So, I know in those cases the celeb agreed to let their name be used, but someone else is actually running the team.
So, my first decision is the league MUST have celebrities who ACTUALLY PLAY fantasy football. First, it’s an integrity thing. Second, it’s more fun for the other celebrities in the league to know they are competing against who it says they are competing against, not some nameless assistant and most importantly, it saves a LOT OF TIME explaining.
Because this isn’t just a fantasy football league. It’s a Guillotine League. Every single week, the lowest scoring team gets cut – their season is over. You keep doing that until only one team remains. And the other big twist is that all the players on the cut team go BACK into the free agent pool for everyone else to bid on. (Like Ja’Marr Chase, Jordan Love and Jordan Mason were free agents this week in my Guillotine League with all my NBC folks.) So, I have to explain all that, and if they don’t already understand the basic mechanics of fantasy football it’s going to be too much for them to understand in a short period of time. But if they play fantasy football, then it’s very easy to understand the Guillotine League format.
The other thing you have to consider when you’re doing anything with celebrities is their level of fame. Often, celebrities (or, more importantly, the people you have to talk to in order to get access to them) want to know what other celebrities are already committed. Because just like you don’t want to go to some lame party where there’s like only five people at the party and they have like a 30-year difference in age to you, celebrities want to be with other celebrities of their level.
Put another way, if you start your league with Randy Watson of Sexual Chocolate, who you all know as Joe the Policeman from the “What’s going down” episode of “That’s My Mama!” (bonus points if you get that reference), well, you’re not getting The Rock or Taylor Swift to join in whatever you’re asking, you know?
Who you start your celebrity league with sets the tone for what level of celebrity the other participants will be. And if the goal is publicity, you want as big of names as possible. But obviously, the bigger the name, the harder it is to get to them, and the harder it is to break through because you have no idea how often they get hit up for everything, every minute of every day.
I also want celebrities that come from different worlds: movies, music, sports, etc. I think that makes it more interesting and it also helps broaden the appeal of the league.
The first time I tried something like this I learned very quickly that there are two questions that immediately get asked. One, who else is involved? (This is where they see if the level of other celebrities involved is high enough). And two, what’s the ask? In other words, what specifically does the celebrity have to do? The less they have to do, the better chance of a “yes.”
So… I need to find big name celebrities who play fantasy football, would be willing to let us use their names, are willing to try this new way to play and add another fantasy league to their already-busy schedule. Not to mention, celebrities who have no issues with any of the other celebrities involved and could find about an hour of free time to actually draft a team. With no budget.
SIGH.
An impossible task, but whatever. It’s my calling. My mission. MY GLORIOUS PURPOSE.
I’m not giving up that easy.
The first thing I decide is to just set the draft date. Nothing would suck more than going through a bunch of conversations and asks and getting a celebrity to commit only to then find out they can’t make the draft date. Every fantasy commissioner out there knows exactly what I’m talking about. Getting folks to agree to a draft date is a massive pain in the ass. And, I think, because I’m gonna be dealing with 10 celebrities I don’t want to have to choose. What if one celeb says they can only make a Tuesday, but the other celeb says they can’t do Tuesday, but could do Wednesday? Then I’m stuck in this weird mess of having to choose one celeb over another, and it’s just gonna be a disaster. And I know I’ll piss people off.
So fine, I plant a flag and say – this Wednesday evening, 9 p.m. ET – this is when the draft is.
But of course, by doing that, it makes my impossible job even harder. Because now I have to find big-name, fantasy-football-playing celebrities who are willing to play publicly in a format, where one of them will get cut after one week and are ALSO available in this very specific window.
SIGH.
But whatever. Glorious purpose. Get off your ass Berry.
So, I do two things. First, I call and text a bunch of friends I know play fantasy football and that are well connected. I explain to them everything I just told you and then I ask the question.
“So, hey, who’s the most famous person you know that plays fantasy football and that you’d feel comfortable asking them for me?”
While they say they’ll think about it and get back to me, I do a few other things. I start by writing down a list of all the celebrities I know play fantasy football. Then I go through the list a second time, marking down names that are big stars and that I know have large fan bases of their own. Then I go through the list a third time and note the ones I thought I could get access to one way or the other so that I could at least make the pitch to them to see if they would play.
I also start going through my social media and seeing if any celebrities follow me there. If they follow me, strong chance they play fantasy football. I do that and I add those names to the list and go through the same process.
And then, after looking through all the lists, one name was the obvious first ask to me.
John Legend.
The EGOT winner who is universally beloved and a massive star that needs no introduction. He’s a hardcore fantasy player and a very good one. I know this because he’s talked about playing fantasy football in interviews before and, well, because he’s beaten me in fantasy football leagues in the past. We actually play in a league together. He’s also, full disclosure, an investor in Fantasy Life.
So, I reached out to him. “Hey John, I’m starting a big, celebrity-only Guillotine fantasy football league to try and promote the game and the fact that you can start a league any week during the season. Would you be willing to play? The only ask of you is that you personally actually play the league, so you’ll have to do the draft (it’ll take about an hour of your time and you can do it from anywhere – it’ll be online). And that you let us use your name, etc. because the league will be public. Would you be willing to play?”
And John quickly replied: “Sure!”
So that was a huge first step. We have John Legend!
Once you have a big name like that it becomes a lot easier.
(Quick aside: If you just dropped onto planet Earth and had no idea who John Legend was or what he did, and you just met him you’d have no idea he’s one of most successful people on the planet. Incredibly down-to-earth awesome human being.)
David Spade is also in that same league I’m in with John Legend. So, I ask David if he would also play. David makes a very funny joke that I can’t print here but he’s also willing to play. Spade is hilarious. Just saw him in concert recently, by the way. If you ever get a chance to see him – highly recommended.
Okay, we are on our way. Music, comedy. I look at my list again. I’ve interviewed Miles Teller many times, played in a league with him once and I know he is a hardcore player and diehard Eagles fan. Would he be willing to play? He can’t – he’s heading out of the country with his wife and won’t be available when we are doing the draft. Totally get it – we move on.
I remember that I was at the Lions playoff game last year for NBC and while I was on the sideline I met Taylor Lautner, who, I assure you, your wife/girlfriend/sister/mom/daughter is a massive fan of. Taylor is a crazy Lions fan and is often on the sidelines at their games. When we met, we talked about fantasy football. I wonder if he would play, so I DM’ed him.
And after asking a bunch of questions about it… he’s in! And then he asks me a great question.
“Are you a country music fan?”
I tell him I am, “I love country music. Listening to it right now, in fact.” Taylor says to me… “Well, I’m in a league with my friend Kane Brown and I bet he’d love this format.”
“Dude! I’m literally listening to “Bury me in Georgia” right now. Yes, love Kane Brown!” Taylor says he’ll be in touch.
One of my investors gets back to me. He’s involved in another investment with NFL (and fantasy football) legend Larry Fitzgerald. Would I like an intro? Hell, yes I would.
Get the intro, make the ask and I’ll be damned.
Larry is in.
Now I got movies, music, comedy, NFL.
I look back at my list. A long time ago, Dale Earnhardt Jr. came to visit ESPN and I interviewed him where we discovered we both loved the professional Washington football team and fantasy football. We’ve been texting about Jayden Daniels non-stop all season. I know he normally likes to focus on just his one league, but would he be willing to try this new format? Dale says sure, it’ll give him a chance to draft Daniels since he got snaked on him in his other league. (And sure enough, Dale got Jayden Daniels in our league.)
Two other friends ping me back. One tells me Joel McHale wants to play in the league with his son. “Amazing. That’s what fantasy football is all about. Sharing it with friends and family. Would love to have Joel and his son.”
Joel is in. Check off TV star.
Looking back at the social media list I put together, I notice that Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Mike Conley follows me on Twitter. So, eff it right, what do I have to lose. I slide into his DM’s and make the ask.
And it takes a few days and I get no response. Oh man. Did I just make this weird?
But no. Out of the blue he DM’s me back. He plays fantasy football, enjoys it, has heard of Guillotine Leagues but never played. But he wants to try. He’s in. (This happened before the NBA season started, fyi.)
I hear back from Taylor Lautner. Kane Brown is IN. YES!
I hear from a friend at NBC – Nicole Wallace, the former White House Communications Director for President George W. Bush and current NBC political commentator, wants to play in the league with HER son.
Getting very excited. I can’t believe it. This league is actually gonna happen. And then, incredible icing on the cake? I hear back from Miles Teller. His schedule has changed and now he CAN make the draft. Amazing.
I’ll be damned. We pulled it off somehow. And so, there we all were, on a Zoom call, on a Wednesday night at 9 p.m. ET, drafting a Guillotine League.
This is already way too long, so I’ll end it here with just a final list of the participants in the league, listed in alphabetical order, and a big thank you to all of them for playing.
- Kane Brown
- Mike Conley
- Dale Earnhardt Jr
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Taylor Lautner
- John Legend
- Joel McHale
- David Spade
- Miles Teller
- Nicole Wallace
And I’m playing in the league as well because, well, why wouldn’t I? I’ll update you guys on the league on my social handles (I’m @MatthewBerryTMR on all forms of social media, except the Bleacher Nation Fantasy App, where I’m @MatthewBerry) and hopefully, the celeb league does its job and convinces you to try a mid-season Guillotine League. Even if you can’t find friends that want to try it with you, come check out the site where we have public leagues filling and drafting all the time.
I SWEAR to you – once you try it, you’ll become addicted.
GLORIOUS PURPOSE!
Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 8
Jordan Love at Jacksonville
Jordan Love is QB4 in PPG on the season, has yet to score less than 16 fantasy points in a game, and he has multiple touchdown passes in every game so far. Jordan Love is on a roll. And that’s without even mentioning the fact that last week Love achieved what most believed no human could ever achieve: throwing an actual touchdown pass to Josh Jacobs. Incredible. Now Love has a prime matchup against a Jaguars team that has allowed the most passing touchdowns on the season, and, over the past four weeks, Jacksonville ranks 32nd in pass defense. Of the seven quarterbacks to face Jacksonville so far, only Deshaun Watson was unable to score 18-plus fantasy points. That’s another thing to love about Love. He allows me to throw random shots at Deshaun Watson. With Green Bay having the second-highest implied team total this week Love is an easy Love.
Joe Burrow vs. Philadelphia
Cincinnati ranks second in pass rate over expected this season and is sixth overall in pass rate. That’s significant heading into a matchup against the Eagles, as quarterbacks with 28-plus pass attempts against Philadelphia this season are averaging 20.9 PPG. Each of the three quarterbacks to put it up 28-plus times against the Eagle this season – Love, Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield – also threw multiple touchdown passes in the game. Joe Burrow has also been playing great at home (22.4 PPG), having posted 25-plus points in two of his three games so far in the friendly confines of Paycor Stadium. Note: I have never actually been confined in Paycor Stadium. I am just assuming it’s friendly. But even if it’s the angry confines of Paycor Stadium, I am still starting Burrow without fear or loathing. Burrow is my QB6 this week.
Caleb Williams at Washington
Over his last four games, Caleb Williams is averaging 20.5 PPG. Since Week 3 – so over that same time period – he’s QB7 in PPG. And it hasn’t all been his arm. Williams has been able to keep his fantasy floor high with his legs, averaging 28 rushing yards per game. Now, coming off a bye, he gets a Washington defense that surrenders touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate and allows opposing quarterbacks to complete 70% of their passes. I have Williams as QB10 this week and, who knows, if Jayden Daniels plays (and inevitably leads my Commanders to 120-plus points due to his unmatched greatness), Williams could even have a bigger fantasy day trying to keep up.
Others receiving votes: Believe it or not, but since Week 3, Bo Nix is QB14 in PPG and he’s posted 19-plus fantasy points in three of his five games over that stretch. A big reason for that is the fact that he’s averaging 6.2 PPG this season just from rushing. And a huge reason for being listed here this week is his matchup against America’s favorite semi-pro team, the Carolina Panthers. Carolina’s defense allows 6.7 points more per game than any other team and has given up multiple touchdown passes in six of seven games. … The Arizona Cardinals are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks (18.5 PPG) and a league-high 8.3 yards per pass attempt. Over the past four weeks, the Cardinals rank 27th in pass defense. If Tua Tagovailoa plays on Sunday, he has a very positive matchup for his return. … In Week 1, C.J. Stroud went for 18.7 fantasy points against the Colts, which started a streak in which every quarterback to face Indianapolis this season and attempt 30-plus passes against them has put up 17-plus fantasy points. Considering Stroud now gets the Colts at home (where he is averaging 312 passing yards per game this season), and that Houston has a top five implied total this week, Stroud is an easy top 15 QB this week. … This season the Rams have allowed the second-most touchdowns and fourth-most yards on deep passes. Now, they have to face Justin Jefferson and Sam Darnold, who ranks second this season on deep ball rate.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 8
Dak Prescott at San Francisco
So far this season, when he is on the road (as he is this week) Dak Prescott is averaging just 14.9 PPG and has put up less than 17 points in all three of his road games. Meanwhile, of the seven quarterbacks the 49ers have faced so far this season, five have scored under 13 fantasy points – and that list includes Patrick Mahomes, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Oh, by the way, San Francisco has also allowed just a single touchdown pass or less in five straight games. And then there’s Dak’s recent history against the 49ers. In Week 5 of 2023, he threw three picks and for just 153 yards on his way to 4.3 fantasy points against San Francisco, and in the 2022 NFC Divisional Round he threw two picks and posted just 10.4 points against them. And I’d argue the Cowboys’ offense was a lot better going into those games than the current state it’s in now. So, I have Prescott down at QB19 this week. But look, I’m not saying the Cowboys shouldn’t have signed him to a $240 million contract. I’m not saying the Cowboys franchise is doomed. I’m a fantasy analyst, not a debate show take-haver. However, I WILL say that $240 million seems like a lot of FAAB to use on one guy.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Green Bay
After two weeks overseas, Trevor Lawrence finally returns home. But he probably wishes the Green Bay Packers weren’t invited to his welcome home party. The Packers D exudes strong I-wish-I’d-stayed-in-London energy. Only one quarterback has scored 17-plus fantasy points against them so far this season – and that includes C.J. Stroud, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson and Matthew Stafford, who all put up less than 13 against Green Bay. Over their past three games, the Packers are allowing just 5.7 yards per pass attempt and surrendering touchdown passes at the fifth-lowest rate. My welcome home gift to Trevor Lawrence is a Week 8 ranking of QB23.
Running Backs I Love in Week 8
Joe Mixon vs. Indianapolis
This has flown under the radar a bit because of Joe Mixon missing time this season due to injury, but in his three full games this season, Mixon has averaged a lights-out 26.8 PPG. He’s also getting a ton of work, averaging 25 touches per game and a 12% target share, as well as seeing the second-most red zone rushes per game. Now fully healthy, he’ll go up against a Colts defense this week that is allowing the third-most rush yards per game to opposing backs – the same Colts defense who saw Mixon put up 178 scrimmage yards against them in Week 1. Since the Colts have not signed the one person who has shown he can stop Mixon this season – the Packers fan who successfully prevented Mixon from doing a Lambeau Leap last week – I have Mixon as a locked-in top five back in Week 8.
Kenneth Walker III vs. Buffalo
As a rookie, Kenneth Walker III had 27 receptions. Last season he had 29. So far this season he has 23 and is on pace to grab close to 70 passes with a career-high target share of 13.5% and at least one red zone target in four of his five games. Gotta love it. I always appreciate professionals in all walks of life who grow and develop their skill set as their career progresses. It’s why I’ve worked hard to add dated references to my original repertoire of just dad jokes. You’re welcome. Anyway … Walker is now a real threat in the passing game. In fact, 40% of his fantasy points this season have come from receiving. Now he gets a Bills defense that ranks bottom three in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns allowed to running backs. The Bills have also allowed 160 scrimmage yards per game to backs so far this season and RBs who have seen 15-plus touches against them this year are averaging 20.3 PPG. I haven’t seen a Walker this bad ass since Walker, Texas Ranger, am I right? (Told you I’ve been working on it.)
Kareem Hunt at Las Vegas
The year is 2018. Your fantasy draft is completed, and you somehow manage to land Patrick Mahomes, Kareem Hunt, DeAndre Hopkins, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Travis Kelce. Realizing the greatness of your team, the rest of your league immediately forfeits, and you are declared champion. What a memory. But seriously, it’s wild to think that the undefeated, back-to-back Super Bowl champion Chiefs now have ALL those guys on their roster. And while some are not what they’ve been in fantasy seasons past, Kareem Hunt is (somehow) still going strong. In his past three games, he’s RB8 in PPG thanks to averaging 17.2 PPG. He also has a massive workload over his past two games, with 52 touches and 100% of Kansas City’s RB touches in the red zone. Hunt should continue his late-2010s level of production in Week 8 of 2024 against a Raiders defense that has allowed every starting back it’s seen so far this season to go for 15-plus fantasy points.
Others receiving votes: There are no timeshare concerns in San Francisco, at least not until Christian McCaffrey gets back. Despite coming off of injury last week, Jordan Mason still saw an 86% snap rate and handled 16 of 19 RB touches. He also continues to lead the NFL in red zone rushes and is second in goal-line carries. Mason has a favorable matchup on Sunday against the Cowboys, who have allowed the second-most rushing TDs and are 27th in rush defense. … We’re starting to see signs of pre-injury Javonte Williams and Denver is rewarding him with more work. In three of his past four games, Williams has 17-plus touches. He also has a double-digit target share in six straight. This week he gets that abysmal Panthers defense that is allowing the most PPG to running backs. … With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, Rachaad White is now Tampa Bay’s second-leading receiver behind Cade Otton. Ooof. But one team’s “ooof” can be a fantasy manager’s “Huzzah!” White managers will obviously benefit from Godwin and Evans vacating a combined target share of 46%. Last week, White’s 16 touches were his most since Week 1. … Lost in all the coverage of the Steelers turning their offense over to Mr. Unlimited was that some of the limits on Jaylen Warren’s workload are being removed as he works his way back from injury. On Sunday night he saw season highs in touches (14) and snap rate (50%). Warren has also received a target share of at least 11% in three of his past four games. All that bodes well heading into a Monday night matchup against the Giants, who allow the second-highest YPC (5.3) to opposing backs.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 8
Alvin Kamara at Los Angeles Chargers
Alvin Kamara inked a two-year contract extension with the Saints on Tuesday. Clearly, his agent advised him to sign before his market value was absolutely decimated by being included on my Week 8 Hate List. “Alvin, sign immediately! Matthew Berry is going to tell the whole world that in Spencer Rattler’s two starts, you are averaging just 2.8 yards per touch! You have only 88 total yards on 31 touches! And now you’re going to play the Chargers, who are allowing the third-fewest fantasy PPG to backs! The Chargers have given up just two rushing scores to backs all season and they also surrender the third-fewest yards per reception to backs. Sign the contract! Get what you can while you can still get anything! Sign now! Matthew Berry’s influence on the front office can RUIN YOU.” That’s probably exactly what Kamara’s agent told him on the phone. Or maybe it was an email. Either way, Kamara is locked in for two more years with the Saints. He’s also locked outside my top 20 for this week.
Nick Chubb vs. Baltimore
Nick Chubb is an easy guy to root for and like everyone, I’m thrilled Nick Chubb is back. I just kinda wish he could have come back after this Baltimore game. The Ravens have the league’s top-ranked rush defense and are allowing just 3.1 YPC to backs. The Browns are also heavy underdogs in this game, so running is not likely to be the order of the day. That’s worse news for Chubb managers, as last week he played on just 23% of pass plays and had a paltry route participation rate of 19%. I don’t advocate booing player injuries, but I will boo you for starting Nick Chubb in fantasy this week. He’s outside my top 30 at the position.
Alexander Mattison vs. Kansas City
Since the start of the season, no running back has reached 70 scrimmage yards on the Chiefs. Since Week 3, the Chiefs have not allowed a touchdown of any kind from a running back, and Kansas City is also allowing a league-low 14.3 PPG to running backs. I’m sure there are backs out there good enough to break through against the Chiefs. Offenses good enough. Game plans good enough. But Alexander Mattison is not that back, and the Las Vegas Raiders are not that offense.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 8
Drake London at Tampa Bay
The Bucs are a great matchup for “Detective” Drake London. Tampa Bay has allowed at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in every game this season and the Bucs are also allowing the third-most yards per game to the slot (100.0). That matters because, since Week 3, 60% of London’s targets have come in the slot. London also leads all players this season with a 48% red zone share. The London games are over, but the Drake London games? Still very much a thing. London is a top five WR for me in Week 8.
Stefon Diggs vs. Indianapolis
Last week, Stefon Diggs got in a pregame dust up with Jaire Alexander of the Packers. Following the game, Diggs had this to say about the confrontation: “I don’t give a f##k if I’m by myself or with a million. I’m never the bigger person. I ain’t letting s##t go.” I’m never the bigger person. An all-time quote. And a quote that has literally nothing to do with fantasy. I just love the idea of someone proudly saying: “I’m never the bigger person.” But, hey, speaking of bigger, how about Diggs’ target share? (What a flawless segue!) In the two games since Nico Collins’ injury, Diggs has a team-high target share of 28%. He also has an aDOT of 11.4 over that span, up from an aDOT of 7.2 from Weeks 1-5. This week, Diggs faces a Colts team that is tied for most touchdowns and the third-highest catch rate allowed to the slot. Diggs, by the way, runs 55% of his routes from the slot. And not for nothing, back in Week 1, he scored twice against the Colts and got 75% of Houston’s red zone targets. I’d love to say the Colts will try hard and do better, but the fact is they suck against the slot. (Sorry Colts, but I’m never the bigger person.) Diggs is a top 15 WR this week.
Jayden Reed at Jacksonville
Over the past four weeks, Jacksonville is allowing the third-most fantasy PPG to wide receivers. The Jaguars have also given up at least one touchdown to the slot in five straight games and they’ve surrendered the second-most yards after the catch to wide receivers. Meanwhile, Reed ranks top five among wide receivers this season in YAC/reception (7.8). So, all the analysis points to a nice game in Week 8 for Jayden Reed. TLDR? Then go with this: “F##k it. Reed down there somewhere.” Jayden Reed is my WR16 this week.
David Njoku vs. Baltimore
After Jameis Winston replaced Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who replaced Deshaun Watson, who replaced Baker Mayfield, who replaced … okay, this is going to be a very long sentence if I detail every Browns quarterback change. Let’s start again. After Jameis Winston replaced Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, David Njoku saw two end zone targets. Over the past two weeks, Njoku has received a target share of 29.6%, and his 14 targets in Week 7 led all tight ends. Now Njoku will take on a Ravens defense that is very friendly to opposing tight ends. Three of the four tight ends to see seven-plus targets versus the Ravens this season have scored 15-plus points, and the Ravens allow the second-most yards per game to the position. Add all that to the fact he shows up to games dressed like this? Give me Njoku as Week 8’s TE2.
Others receiving votes: I’m seeing a return to relevance for DeVonta Smith this week, and not just because the Slim Reaper is a good Halloween costume. After posting just 0.8 fantasy points last week against the Giants, Smith faces a Bengals defense that – since Week 3 – is allowing the eighth-most yards per game to wide receivers. Plus, Smith averages 17.0 PPG this season in games in which Jalen Hurts throws 25-plus passes and, in a matchup with the second-highest Over/Under of Week 8, there should be plenty of passing. … I like Jaxon Smith-Njigba a lot this week. I even gave him some QB Love List consideration after his 35-yard rainbow to DK Metcalf last week. But with Metcalf week-to-week with an MCL sprain, more targets should come Smith-Njigba’s way, especially against a Bills defense that sees the fourth-most slot targets against. And get this: In his four games this season with seven-plus targets, Smith-Njigba is averaging 15.1 PPG. … Jacksonville allows the most yards per game to perimeter wide receivers and, since Week 3, the Jags have given up the second-most touchdowns to the position. Sounds like a juicy matchup for Romeo Doubs. Don’t forget: Doubs averages 13.6 PPG in Jordan’s Love’s four games this season and has seen at least one red zone target in each. … Brandon Aiyuk’s absence should mean more targets for Jauan Jennings, who also has a favorable matchup this week against a Dallas defense that has allowed the third-most yards per game to wide receivers over the past four weeks. Jennings is fourth among qualified wide receivers in yards per target this season (11.2) and has 33% of his team’s end zone targets. By the way, if Jennings doesn’t play this week (missed practice on Wednesday), consider Ricky Pearsall. In his first NFL game last week, the rookie had a route participation rate of 84%. … Speaking of route participation, Cedric Tillman got an 82% rate in Cleveland’s first game without Amari Cooper, along with a target share of 25%. Especially with Jameis Winston’s “eff it” attitude, I expect him to chuck it all over the place, meaning Tillman should be productive against a Ravens team that is bottom three in fantasy points and yards allowed to wide receivers. … Since Week 3, Cade Otton is TE8 in PPG, and over that same stretch boasts a target share of 20%. Now he’s essentially the focal point of Tampa’s passing offense with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out. In Otton’s four games with six-plus targets this season? He’s averaging 12.1 PPG. … They say the tight end is a rookie quarterback’s security blanket, and Drake Maye is feeling very secure with Hunter Henry. In Maye’s two starts, Henry is averaging 15.2 PPG and has 13-plus fantasy points in each. Henry also led the Patriots in target share last week.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 8
Diontae Johnson at Denver
We all know quite well by now how tough Denver’s defense is on opposing wide receivers. Denver allows the second-fewest fantasy PPG to the position. Only two wide receivers have put up 14-plus points on the Broncos this season. Denver allows a touchdown on a league-low 1.6% of WR targets. There’s the Patrick Surtain shadow, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So yeah, even if Patrick Surtain doesn’t play (still in the concussion protocol as of this writing though he did practice on Wednesday), the matchup against Denver’s pass defense is definitely bad for Johnson. But now Bryce Young is back. In Young’s two starts this season, Johnson averaged 4.2 PPG and had less than 20 receiving yards in each. All that puts Johnson outside of my top 30 wide receivers this week.
Michael Pittman at Houston
The only QB-WR combo that can hold a smelly fantasy candle to Bryce Young and Diontae Johnson might be Anthony Richardson and Michael Pittman. In Richardson’s four starts this season, Pittman’s weekly finishes have been: WR53, WR51, WR46 and WR30. Not great! Pittman has caught just 57% of his targets from Richardson this season and in 96 routes run with Richardson playing, Pittman has just one (1!) red zone target. It’s hard to see things improving this week against a Texans defense that allows the fifth-lowest catch rate to wide receivers. Pittman is outside my top 35 for the week.
Christian Kirk vs. Green Bay
Christian Kirk is rumored to be available for trade leading into the deadline (Nov. 5). And it’s not hard to see why. In the two games since Evan Engram returned from injury, Kirk’s target share is just 16.4% – down from the 21% he was seeing when Engram was out. Kirk hasn’t finished as a top 45 WR in any of the three weeks with Engram in the lineup and, while Kirk does have two games this season with 13-plus fantasy points, he needed double-digit targets each time to do it. Now Kirk finds himself with a tough matchup against a Packers team that has allowed just one touchdown to the slot this season. If you have Kirk on your fantasy team, you should want him to get traded to a better situation, but I’m not considering starting him in fantasy until that happens.
Pat Freiermuth vs. New York Giants
Pat Freiermuth now has three straight games with a target share below 15%. And while the Giants aren’t great at a lot these days, they do defend the tight end position pretty well. Over the past four weeks, the Giants are allowing the third-fewest PPG to tight ends and have yet to allow a touchdown to a TE this season … while Freiermuth has yet to even SEE an end zone target this year. While the Steelers let Russ cook, you should let Pat Freiermuth stew. On your bench. He’s way down at TE20 for me.
