The first thing you should know is that I have written multiple versions of what you are about to read before, including last year, here at NBC. Updated, expanded and re-written some for sure, but yeah, the themes are very much intact from previous versions.
I just wanted to be fully honest with you because the best way to trade is by being honest. That’s right. This is a trade advice column. Not just any trade advice column, THE trade advice column. The definitive guide to making a trade in the year of our savior, Puka Nacua, 2023.
Look, we have played four weeks, which means we are, um, 22% done with the season. Unless your league stops in Week 17, then we are 23.52% done with the season. Either way, it’s all a small sample size, but in the relatively small sample size of a NFL season, four games is enough of a sample for you to get a sense of your team. You should, by now, have an idea of where your team is strong and where your team is weak. Where you can stand pat (Jaylen Waddle is gonna be fine) and where you might need to make a move.
And getting this sense of your team is important because making trades – especially big trades – isn’t the best idea until you know what you are dealing with and have a real sense of your team.
Have you gotten really unlucky this year, scoring a ton, but always facing the highest-scoring team in your league? Or maybe the opposite: You know your team isn’t great, but you’ve lucked into some easy matchups where your opponent had a bad week. You should know where you have good depth and where you are scrambling and praying every week.
The point is, whether you are 0-4, 4-0, or somewhere in between, you can always improve your team. And yes, 0-4 is a tough hole to dig out of, but I will tell you, I was 0-4 in a 16-team league two years ago (brutal matchup luck) and dug my way out of it to make the playoffs. And those at 4-0 feel good, I am sure, but things can go south quickly. Just ask anyone that was crushing it last year with Cooper Kupp and then when he went down for the year, many a fantasy team followed.
Long way to go. So, to me, this is the week the trading season really starts. Or, at least, should start. And one big issue with trades is that way, way, way, more trades DON’T happen than actually do. So, how do we get a trade done? One that works for us, but also doesn’t create a three week angry text chain among your entire league?
Well, I’m here to help. Less about specific players and more about theory, here, once again, is the 2023 Edition of The Matthew Berry Definitive Guide to Trading.
Step 1: Figure out what you need and what they have
So you’ve decided to make a trade. Great.
Well, before you can acquire someone, you need to know what you can offer. What positions do you have depth at? Where are you weak? Hopefully you have depth. What’s that you say?
“I have no depth!” you yell at the screen. “That’s why I need to trade,” you say. Because everyone is hurt. Or is terrible. Or potentially both, like the various members of the NY Giants offensive line.
Fine. Then let’s create some depth.
Let’s say you have no running backs and only one decent wide receiver, but you do have Josh Allen. So let’s look at the waiver wire. C.J. Stroud is still available in 27% of Yahoo leagues. Stroud is currently a Top 10 fantasy QB. And if Stroud is gone, Sam Howell is out there in a ton of leagues as well and has a nice upcoming schedule.
The idea here is you can grab a usable QB off the waiver wire and now you have Josh Allen to deal. That’s not ideal, of course, but you can live with Stroud or Howell or whoever another team is willing to throw back because they are getting JOSH!
Obviously you’d rather have Josh Allen, but we are not in a optimal situation here. We need to make a trade and no one is interested in your crappy Kyle Pitts. But Allen… Allen you can deal. Rolling with a fill-in QB and a RB1 is a lot better than continually hoping Kenneth Gainwell becomes a thing.
Maybe you have Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews? I know, I know, you don’t want to trade them. No one does. But there’s lots of “hope for a touchdown tight end streamer types.” Most people in your league have those types, so if you’re rolling with one you won’t be at a big weekly disadvantage the way you currently are at other spots. Now, I would want a HAUL for either Kelce or Andrews, but the point is… if you don’t have depth to trade, you’re gonna have to create it.
Once you’ve figured out who you are willing to trade, you need to figure out what you are trading for. If you can replace the QB on the waiver wire and live with your WRs, maybe RB is where you should be attacking. You need to look at all available pools of players (your roster, free agents, other team rosters) to figure out who is potentially available to you and who isn’t. (The team with Justin Herbert isn’t trading for Josh Allen, you know?)
Anyways, once you have figured out what you have and where you can possibly get what you need, you need to do one more thing. You should rank (at least mentally) the players on your team, by position and overall, so that you truly understand how you value everyone.
Step 2: Do a deep dive on everyone else’s team
Don’t target one specific player. Yes, you’d like to have Christian McCaffrey. Everyone would. That’s too narrow of a window. It’s much better to find teams that might have running back depth to deal. Or conversely, a team that needs what you have a surplus of: a good tight end or a quarterback, for example. Ideally you’ll identify a few teams that are potential trade partners. Maybe there’s a 4-0 team in your league that is willing to part with a strong piece for Saquon Barkley. You’ve been piecing it together at RB without him and don’t love trading him now that he’s close to returning, but if you’re 1-3, you don’t have the luxury of waiting until he’s back and fully healthy. You need to win now, and a 4-0 team can afford a hit for a week or two.
Understanding your objective is crucial before trying to trade. Are you in must-win-this-week mode? Or maybe you have massive injuries and just need to plug holes for the rest of the season. Or are you just trying to take a surplus and improve an area you see as a need? Are you 4-0 or 3-1 and looking down the road? Understand the objective because, as with our example from above, Saquon makes more sense for a 3-1 team but doesn’t for the must-win-this-week team.
Step 3: Start marketing your players
Don’t just send a bunch of cold trade offers out of the blue via the league interface. These have a high probability to just get turned down. Just seeing two players in an email often gets rejected ASAP with no counter.
You need to start a conversation, and there are many ways to do that: text, email, DM’s on any number of social platforms, via whatever place you play or if it happens to be your significant other, taking them to dinner and, over dessert, casually bringing up the fact that their team is one good tight end short of unbeatable.
In general, I also don’t like the trade block or announcing to the league that “so-and-so” is available. I feel that devalues the player, like you’ve already announced you’re getting rid of him. The exception to that is if the player is truly elite and there are no questions about him. And even in that scenario, you need to be selective. The message is “I hate to do this, but my WRs have been ravaged by injury and I’ve got to do something. Bijan Robinson is available. Make your best offer.”
But I would not send that leaguewide. Send it just to the top three or four teams in the league, all copied on the same message. This creates a competition where the league leaders may or may not want Bijan, but they surely don’t want their rival to get him. That way you can play people off each other.
One final small marketing trick: Set your lineup so that the player you hope to deal is listed as a starter. Seems dumb, but it’s a weird psychological thing. When a prospective trading partner looks at your team it’ll seem to them that the player in question is more valuable than if he’s on your bench as surplus rather than a valued member of your starting lineup.
Step 4: Actually talk with (potential) trading partners like a normal human being
So, now that your interest in making a trade is out in the open, it’s time to talk to specific teams to see if there’s mutual interest. If they responded to your feelers, great. You have a good starting point. If it’s a colder approach, make it loose and casual at first. “You open to talking trade?” or some such. You can be specific about your motive if you want. “I need a running back; you open to a deal?” Because if they aren’t, why waste your time?
Let’s say Tony Pollard is on one of the teams you think has running backs to spare. Play it cool. Don’t say “I want Pollard.” Of course you want Pollard. Just like their manager is probably not looking to move Pollard. So, just ask if they are open to dealing one of their running backs, rather than asking straight up for their top pick and best player. Work up to Pollard in the negotiation. (More on how to do that later).
Now, if you are on the receiving end of a query like that, you are welcome to say no, of course. But ignoring a reasonable and polite inquiry is rude. And also, what are you doing? Are you in this league or not? Say yes or no, but just say something.
It’s perfectly fine to have multiple negotiations going on just so long as everyone is upfront. If, when you make an offer you say, “FYI, I sent offers to two other teams tonight,” no issue. Or, “I’m only talking you about this, but I need to do a deal by Saturday, so if we can’t agree tonight I’m reaching out to others.” Whatever it is, just be clear about your timeline and whether the negotiating window is exclusive.
I sometimes like making it an offer that could go either way in order to open up negotiations. Earlier this week, I sent a text saying “You open to dealing Derrick Henry? Or are you interested in Tyjae Spears? Let’s get these guys on the same team.” So we’re talking now and we’ll see if a deal gets done.
The idea is to open a dialogue where the other party has a choice of giving up an older and potentially injury-prone superstar or acquiring someone of mine that seems likely to have fantasy stardom if anything happens to King Henry. You never know what will pique someone’s interest. Your goal at this point is to get them to talk to you with an open mind. Then you can negotiate.
Also — and this is important — when you can, actually get on the phone or video conference and talk to your potential trading partner. It’s much easier to be convincing and gauge their interest when hearing their voice, not over text. The written word is imperfect. Exhibit A being this column.
Step 5: When you talk, negotiate by listening and being patient
Now that you’ve got a potential trade partner talking, your first question should be “What do you need?” You already know what they can do for you. Let’s find out what you need to do for them, so you can craft a deal that helps you both.
It’s important to phrase that request as a way to help you, help them. Think about it. Someone says to me, “I’m interested in Travis Kelce, what do you want for him?” Great. So now I have to research your team to find a POTENTIAL match that MIGHT make me interested in trading an elite tight end I wasn’t even looking to trade, all so you can turn me down because I’m gonna ask for the world to give up Kelce? Screw that.”
Make it as easy as possible for your potential trade partner. Not everyone has the same amount of time to obsess over it like we do.
Listen to what the other player needs. Really listen. The only way this will work is if it’s a two-way conversation about what you both need and want. Hearing their concern and enthusiasm about players is the best way to get something done, and even sometimes gives you an advantage in negotiation.
Ask the potential trade partner to rank their players at the position you’re looking at. This allows you to do two important things:
A) Get a sense of how they value certain players, which might be different from how you value them. B) Inherently put them in a position where they have subconsciously devalued some of their players (whomever they rank lowest). Be prepared to reveal your rankings as well. Ideally, line up your players to match the player you want to trade to “equal” the player you want from them.
When negotiating, don’t treat your potential partner as if they are stupid. They are not interested in trading their recently underperforming Jaylen Waddle for the Michael Wilson you just picked up.
Don’t try to talk down the player you want to acquire and don’t oversell the guy you are dealing. Don’t lie about injuries or changes in value. Better to be honest, because they already know it (or will soon enough) and they will trust you more for it.
Don’t be afraid to lay out why you want to make a deal -- help them understand what’s in it for you. “Yes, this player is in a committee but he’ll get the majority of goal-line work. However, he’ll never play for me because I have this backup that popped. And the difference between him and your Top 20 wide receiver is clearly someone, so how can I fill in the gap?”
Except in rare circumstances where I desperately need depth, I want to be the one getting the best player in a deal. I try not to do 2-for-1 deals unless I am getting the one. But not all 2-for-1 deals need to actually be 2-for-1. If I am the one offering the two players, I will ask for a throw-in. These two guys for your stud and whoever you want to throw in. Or the worst wide receiver you have, etc. The 2-for-2 is weirdly more palatable than a 2-for-1, because there is a perception that they are “getting” something for their worst player.
You obviously want to accentuate the positive, but don’t sell it as steak if it’s hamburger. Better to sell it as the best hamburger available for the price.
Everyone is available. That must be your mindset, regardless of whether you are initiating or getting the trade offer. Never say “Sorry, Christian McCaffrey is untradable.” Because look, if someone offered you Tyreek Hill, Mark Andrews and James Conner for him, you’re obviously doing that deal. You can say it would take quite a lot to get CMC, you value him highly, but everyone is tradable in the right deal.
Being willing to talk about your best player has the added benefit of getting them to talk about theirs. If they think they can get CMC (“So what would you give me for CMC?”) and get them talking about the idea of dealing, say, Andrews and Hill, now they’ve started to accept the idea of trading those players and you can dial the deal back to where you keep CMC but still acquire Andrews. “That’s not enough for CMC, but what about X and Y for Andrews?” And now you’re discussing Andrews, not CMC. Make sense?
Put a time limit on it. “OK, well let me know by 10 p.m.” Otherwise, too many trades sit in limbo. It puts some urgency on the deal and lets the other person know you mean business. Also, the longer a deal takes, the less likely it is that it gets done. Doubt sets in and the excitement gets lost.
No is no. If you make an offer and the other person says no, you’re allowed one follow-up to say “Well, is there something else you’d consider for so and so? Could we keep talking?” But if the answer is still no, then you have to move on.
If the other person says they are negotiating with someone else, it’s fair to ask “Well, before you agree to a deal for De’Von Achane, will you give me a chance to beat it? Maybe I can, maybe I can’t, but this way you know you’ll get maximum value.” This gives you one last chance and gives you info on what others in the league are offering. And if it’s a no, at least you gave it your best shot.
Step 6: Make sure you understand all angles of a trade – the good, the bad and the other side
There comes a point in the negotiation when it’s time to make a solid offer. Likewise, if you have received one, you need to accept or reject it.
First, understand your goal is to improve your team with a focus on your starting lineup. You don’t need to “win” the trade for it to be valuable to you. You may deal a Top 10 quarterback for a decent FLEX running back which, on the surface, means you “lost” the trade. But if that quarterback was never playing for you, this was the best available player to you and your starting lineup is better for it, then you “won,” too.
In addition to thinking about how the deal works for you if everything goes well, you also need to evaluate the floor. If everything turns horrible, how does the trade affect you? Did you deal too much depth? Are you now one random injury away from disaster? Everyone sees the upside; not enough people think about the downside.
As my late, great Uncle Lester used to say, “If you’re in a poker game with five other guys and each guy has $100 and you’ve won $400, it’s time to leave. You’ve already won most of the money.” He would also say, “If you can get 80% of what you want in a deal, take it. Most guys screw it up trying to get the last 20%.” My uncle was one of the truly great negotiators who ever lived. Don’t get greedy. And remember, it’s only a good deal if both parties are satisfied. And if both people are happy, but didn’t get everything they wanted, it’s probably as close to a perfect deal as you can get.
A deal is a deal as soon as both parties agree to it. I have been in negotiations where the person and I have verbally agreed to a deal, then I’ve gone to put it through on the site and they turned it down. “I had second thoughts.” No, we agreed. We’ve been negotiating for two days. A deal is a deal. A person’s word needs to mean something, and whether a deal was agreed to verbally, via text or email or through the app, it’s still a deal. Don’t weasel out on some technicality. All you have is your rep and your word.
Step 7: They don’t gloat, they don’t veto and they’re not afraid to walk away
Don’t gloat. Even if you completely got the better of someone, say you think it was a fair deal. Assuming you are in a league with the same people year after year, the better you make someone feel about trading with you -- and that includes after the deal is done -- the easier the next negotiation will be. Plus, you never know when a deal will blow up in your face. Don’t make it worse for yourself by having been a jerk about it.
Don’t veto. Unless there is proof of collusion, every trade must be allowed to stand. Everyone should be able to run their team the way they want to. Even if it’s not how you would do it. Even if it’s badly. Especially if it’s badly.
The truth is you never know. A trade before Week 1 of the season of Joe Burrow for Josh Dobbs would have been labeled an insane rip-off. As we sit here heading into Week 5, Burrow is QB 31, Dobbs is QB 15 and since Week 2, Dobbs is the second-best QB in fantasy.
Now, personally I think Burrow will ultimately get it together and once again be elite and at some point Kyler Murray is likely to come back, sending Dobbs to the bench. But still. Through four games, you’d much rather have Dobbs than Burrow.
You never know.
Even if the trade doesn’t work out, so what? We all have different opinions on players. That’s what makes it fun. And the art of negotiation is a skill in fantasy football. An important one. So what if you don’t like the trade for one team. It’s not your team. Again. Let that person manage their team. Even if it’s badly. It’s their team, not yours.
When you veto, it’s your way of saying “I’m not good enough to beat this person straight up. I have to use a loop hole to stop them.” Seriously, the veto is the coward’s way out. Never veto. Full stop.
Finally, one last Uncle Lesterism. “The best way to double your money is to fold it up and put it in your pocket.” Sometimes the best trades are the ones we don’t make. Don’t be afraid to walk away.
I know this was long, but a quick reminder before we get to the players. Fantasy Football Pregame airs LIVE every Sunday from 11am ET to 1pm ET on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube Channel. And if you need a Peacock subscription, be sure to get yourself a RotoPass.com subscription. It’s a bundle site I have put together with six of the best premium content sites out there plus, of course, a six-month subscription to Peacock so you can watch my show and the exclusive NFL games. (Yes, even the exclusive NFL playoff game).
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Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski. Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 5
Patrick Mahomes at Minnesota
Through a quarter(ish) of the regular season, Patrick Mahomes is 10th in passing yards, 15th in passer rating and just QB 9 on a PPG basis. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes stinks at football. It’s time someone says it. That said, I do think he has a good game this week against the Vikings. Quarterbacks facing the Vikings this season are completing 76% of their passes (second highest in the league) and Minnesota is also allowing touchdown passes at the sixth-highest rate. This game has the highest Over/Under on the slate (53), so there’s a high fantasy ceiling and Mahomes’ rushing – this season he’s averaging a career-high 38.5 rush yards per game – helps the floor. I know, I know … the thought of having Patrick Mahomes in your fantasy lineup is terrifying. Who would do such a thing? Jokes aside, even though he’s been disappointing (by his standards) this year he’s still an obvious name of course, but I put him in here for two reasons. First, he’s my No. 1 overall QB this week. And second, after Minnesota this week, he gets Denver, the Chargers and then Denver again. All bottom 12 pass defenses. I believe Mahomes is gonna explode these next four weeks and your opportunity to buy “low” on him is over this Sunday at 1pm. Also – stash Rashee Rice. Thank me later.
Kirk Cousins vs. Kansas City
If you want a quarterback who puts up big stats regularly – so not that scrub Mahomes – Kirk Cousins is on pace to throw for 5,159 yards and 46 touchdowns. Very quietly fantasy’s QB 7 through four weeks, Cousins has the gaudy kind of numbers that means he should be rocking the gold chains and shirtless look at all times. Sorry, Kohl’s. Cousins has multiple touchdowns in every game this season, thanks in part to Minnesota leading the league in pass rate, and Vikings-Chiefs has an Over/Under of 53 points. That last stat is significant because, since the start of last season, Cousins is averaging 21.5 PPG in games in which 50-plus points are scored. Look for Cousins to keep it rolling in Week 5. I have him as a Top 7 quarterback this week.
Jordan Love at Las Vegas
Love and Las Vegas don’t usually go well together. Not to stray too far from fantasy advice into relationship advice, but a drunken, impromptu wedding at a miniature chapel to someone you met four hours ago at the craps table at The Golden Nugget tends not to be the basis of a successful, long-term relationship and can be a painfully-expensive divorce. So, um, I’ve heard. However, … this week? I love Love in Las Vegas. The Raiders are allowing touchdown passes at the third-highest rate and opposing quarterbacks average 20.2 PPG against Vegas on the season. So, Love, QB 5 on the season, who has yet to score below 17 fantasy points in any game this year, shouldn’t have too much trouble through the air on Sunday. Not to mention, Christian Watson will have had 10 days since his season debut to get back into game action, and hopefully Luke Musgrave is back as well, giving Love a full complement of his weapons, which includes his legs. Love now has three straight games with either 20-plus rushing yards or a rushing score. I swore I learned my lesson, but I bet I get drunk and want to marry Jordan Love in a shotgun ceremony this Sunday. He’s my QB 8 this week.
Others receiving votes: The Eagles defense has allowed the sixth-most passing yards this season. Look for Matthew Stafford to put a big number on them again this week. Stafford leads the NFL in pass attempts and is second in passing yards. … You don’t have to be an actual rocket scientist like Josh Dobbs to know that Josh Dobbs is playing well. He is averaging 21.9 PPG over his past three games, has three straight games with 40-plus rushing yards, and since Week 2 is QB 2 in PPG. This week, Dobbs gets a Bengals team in disarray. … Want to do a re-draft, Carolina Panthers? C.J. Stroud now has three games in a row with 20-plus fantasy points with 280-plus passing yards and multiple touchdown passes. And heading into this week’s game in Atlanta, he should get back Laremy Tunsil and Tytus Howard on his offensive line as well. … Every quarterback to face the Chicago Bears this season has scored at least 18 fantasy points. The Bears’ secondary, which already gives up passing touchdowns at the second highest rate this year, has been decimated by injuries as well. I’m not even sure who is going to be starting for them on Thursday night. I just know that I’m starting Sam Howell in deeper leagues as a Top 15 QB with upside and he’s a good streamer for those without Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson or Geno Smith this week.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 5
Dak Prescott at San Francisco
Following the Cowboys’ Week 4 win, a reporter asked Dak Prescott about this week’s matchup and how it felt to lose to the 49ers in the playoffs last season. Prescott responded: “You just want to piss me off going into this week, and I appreciate that. I do, actually. I do. Appreciate that. Appreciate that.” While I am NOT trying to piss off Dak Prescott heading into this 49ers matchup on Sunday Night Football, considering his answer, he may very much appreciate the fact that I have him on my Week 5 Hate List. And the reasons are many. Through four weeks, the 49ers have intercepted more passes (5) than have had touchdown passes thrown against them (4). They have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt this season. They are allowing opposing QBs to average just 12.8 PPG … and 12.8 would actually be an improvement for Prescott over how he did against the 49ers in last season’s playoff game. In that loss, Prescott was 23-for-37 for 206 yards, a touchdown and two picks, putting up just 10.4 fantasy points on the day. Three of the four QBs to face the Niners this year have scored under 14 points and Dak has scored over 16 points just once this year. Dak, all of that is why I have you down at QB 19 in Week 5. Appreciate you!
Jared Goff vs. Carolina
The Lions are a 10-point favorite this week. Considering they already rank 31st in pass rate this season, the game script is likely to be very run heavy. Even if not, it’s worth noting the Panthers are allowing opposing quarterbacks to average just 11.8 PPG against them this season, sixth-fewest in the league. They just held red-hot Kirk Cousins to single digit fantasy points. Add to all that that Goff has one or fewer touchdown passes in three of his four games this season, and it’s likely that Goff factors into a real football win this week, but probably not too many fantasy victories. I have him outside my Top 20 at the position.
Running Backs I Love in Week 5
Travis Etienne vs. Buffalo (in London)
Even though this game is classified as a home game for the Bills, Travis Etienne and the Jaguars have been in the eastern Buffalo suburb of London for two full weeks. They’re probably so comfortable in London by now that they’re wearing top hats and monocles and carrying canes, flipping nickels to paperboys as they pass by. (I assume London fashion for wealthy people hasn’t progressed since the time of Charles Dickens novels. I haven’t checked.) Anyway, Buffalo’s defense so far this season is struggling mightily against running backs. The Bills are allowing a league-high 6.0 YPC to backs on the season, and the fourth-most receiving yards to the position. With Etienne averaging 20.8 touches per game, including seeing a double-digit target share in three of his four games, everything points to him having a big game in London. He’s my RB 7. By the way, if you happen to win big on Etienne in DFS or with prop bets this week, please consider sending a portion of your winnings to the Tiny Tim Cratchit Family at 314 ½ Feces Street, Old Timey London, England.
Joe Mixon at Arizona
In what has been a disastrous start to the season for the Bengals, Joe Mixon is a lone bright(ish) spot, managing to produce even against tough defenses on the way to cracking Top 20 back status so far. This week he gets a bit of a break from tough defenses. Every starting running back to face Arizona this season has received 20-plus touches and the Cardinals have responded by allowing the third-most fantasy points to backs on the season. With Mixon getting 86% of Cincinnati’s RB touches so far this season, including 90% of the red zone touches, look for the Bengals struggling offense (that is likely to be missing Tee Higgins) to run through their lead back on Sunday. I have Mixon as a Top 13 RB in Week 5.
De’Von Achane vs. New York Giants
If he was a microwave, De’Von Achane would be Energy Star rated. If he was a car, he would get 1,000 miles per gallon. If he was a fantasy sports analyst, he would get right to the analysis on write-ups like this instead of doing these long, meandering and mostly pointless intros for every player. But my point is this: De’Von Achane is very efficient. Over the past two weeks, he has 353 yards and six touchdowns on just 33 touches. Pretty efficient! And sure, negative regression will come at some point, but don’t count on it being in Week 5. The Giants have allowed a rushing score to a running back in every game this season and, over the past two weeks, Achane has received 11 red zone touches compared to just five for Raheem Mostert. Achane is my RB 12.
Others receiving votes: Did you see how hard Taylor Swift cheered the touchdown scored by Isiah Pacheco on Sunday Night? I’m not saying she has her eye on someone new, I’m just saying that if you’re in Taylor Swift’s fantasy league and have Pacheco on your roster, you could probably get a lot for him in return if you offer Pacheco to her in a trade. Consider it. But it might be stronger to hold onto him. Pacheco has 40 touches over the past two weeks. He also has two games with 30-plus receiving yards already, compared to just one such game last season. … The Chicago Bears have allowed 17-plus fantasy points to a running back in every game this season, along with eight total touchdowns (four rushing, four receiving) to the position. All of which is to say: Get Brian Robinson in your lineups in Week 5. … Breece Hall saw his highest snap rate of the season on Sunday night (43%) and Jets head coach Robert Saleh stated on Wednesday that Hall is no longer on a pitch count. That’s especially good news heading into a matchup against a Denver team that has allowed the most fantasy points to running backs. … Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears has played more than 50% of the snaps in three of four games this season and is seeing a 13% target share. He remains one of my favorite bench stashes and could be FLEX viable this week for bye week needy teams in deeper leagues… If Javonte Williams doesn’t go, Jaleel McLaughlin is a nice plug-and-play for Week 5 against a Jets team that ranks bottom-five in receptions allowed to backs on the season. McLaughlin is averaging over seven yards per touch this season.
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Running Backs I Hate in Week 5
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. New Orleans
Mac Jones getting benched got all the attention in Week 4 with the Patriots, but Rhamondre Stevenson is probably actually having a worse season so far than Jones. In the plus category, unlike Jones, Stevenson hasn’t hit anyone in the jewels … although it’s Stevenson’s fantasy managers who will be taking it directly in the crotch again this week. Stevenson enters this game averaging just 2.7 YPC – 40th out of 44 qualified backs – to take on a Saints defense that allows the seventh-fewest yards to running backs. Stevenson also has three straight games with 10 or fewer receiving yards and, dating back to last season, has put up less than 65 total yards in five of his last seven games. He’s playing just 65% of snaps the last two weeks as well with just a 10% target share on the season. So, yeah, add Stevenson to the ever-growing list of Patriots players that are disappointments this year. He’s merely a FLEX this week, outside my Top 20 for Week 5.
Miles Sanders at Detroit
After hearing boos during Carolina’s Week 4 loss at home, which dropped the Panthers to 0-4, Miles Sanders said: “It’s not cool. It’s not cool at all. Especially at home. It’s not a good feeling.” But let’s be fair here. We don’t know for sure if Carolina fans were booing the Panthers. It may have simply been Miles Sanders’ fantasy managers booing Miles Sanders. Because through four weeks, he’s RB 30 on a PPG basis. Sanders also has three straight games with fewer than 45 rushing yards and is averaging a measly 2.9 YPC on the season. Now, he’s fighting a groin injury and will be facing a Lions team that allows under 50 rushing yards per game to backs on the season. We’re not booing, Miles, we’re saying, uhhhhh … “Get on the fantasy boooooooooo-ench.”
Najee Harris vs. Baltimore
In Pittsburgh’s embarrassing defeat in Houston last week, Najee Harris – believe it or not – actually looked kinda decent, putting up a season-high 103 total yards on 16 touches. Don’t expect a sequel. The Ravens are the only team that has not allowed a rushing score this season. And last week aside, it seems Harris is pretty much in a timeshare now with Jaylen Warren. On the season, he has a 53% snap rate and zero games above 57%. He also is non-existent in what passes for a passing game in Pittsburgh with less than five receiving yards in three of his four games. And this offense will be helmed by either a banged up Kenny Pickett or Mitch Trubisky. I don’t have a ton of confidence in a lot of scoring opportunities here for Harris to fall into the end zone. I have Harris down at RB 30 for Week 5.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 5
CeeDee Lamb at San Francisco
Look, with CeeDee Lamb traveling to face maybe the best defense in all of football this week on Sunday Night Football, you better believe I wanted to use the line “like a Lamb led to the slaughter” in his write up. I mean, I’ve had this game circled all season on my Forced Puns Calendar. But, unfortunately, the data just doesn’t support the bad wordplay. As great as their defense is, San Francisco has allowed the third-most receptions to wide receivers this season. Plus, wide receivers who have seen seven-plus targets versus the 49ers are averaging 18.1 PPG. Then there’s the fact that in last season’s playoff defeat to the 49ers, Lamb still had 10 catches for 117 yards on 13 targets. All that means I still have 8’s, sorry, I call him 8’s, you can call him CeeDee Lamb as a Top, ahem, 8 wide receiver in Week 5.
Adam Thielen at Detroit
Carolina Panthers’ fans are free to continue booing their team, but they should consider carving out an exemption for Adam Thielen. Something like “BoooooooooooobutnotyouAdamThielenyouaredoinggoodoooooooo.” It really rolls off the tongue. Anyway, over the past three weeks, Thielen is WR 8 with an average of 22.4 PPG. He has a 26.1% target share over that span and seven-plus receptions in every one of those games. Also, 70% of his targets have come in the slot. Why is that significant? Because Detroit allows the fourth-most yards to the slot this season. Still available in 15% of Yahoo leagues, I have Thielen as a Top 20 play in Week 5.
Michael Pittman vs. Tennessee
Michael Pittman and Anthony Richardson wore matching Step Brothers shirts to the stadium in Week 4. Then Pittman was only targeted five times and had just a single catch for 15 yards. So I’m going to guess that Week 4 is the part of the movie where Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly actually hate each other? Maybe Pittman touched his drumset? Possibly. But in Week 5? My hunch is they become best friends and rock the Effing Catalina Wine Mixer, er, the Tennessee Titans. Because last week was a complete aberration. In the three games prior, Pittman had 11-plus targets in each game. That kind of workload will go a long way against a Titans team that allows the third-highest catch rate to wide receivers. In fact, wide receivers who have seen six-plus targets versus the Titans this season are averaging 17.2 PPG, and Tennessee has allowed at least 14 fantasy points to a wide receiver in every game so far. Pittman is my WR 16 in Week 5.
Tyler Higbee vs. Philadelphia
The Eagles have allowed the third-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. Philadelphia is also allowing opposing tight ends to catch 84.6% of their targets, tied for the highest rate in the league. And even with Puka Nacua catching 175 passes a game, Higbee has still seen a 22.5% target share over the past two weeks, with 60-plus receiving yards in each of those games. Give me Higbee as a Top 10 TE this week.
Others receiving votes: Since Week 2, Christian Kirk is WR 12 in PPG and has three straight games with 15-plus points. He’s been helped by the absence of Zay Jones for sure, but with 81% of his fantasy points coming from the slot, he has a great matchup this week against a Buffalo defense that allows the third-highest catch rate (80%) on slot passes. … Everyone remembers the famous Shakespeare lines: “O, Romeo, Romeo, wherefore art thou, Romeo? / Hey! I’m over here in the end zone. Wherefore I, Romeo Doubs, actually have five end zone targets this season, tied for third-most in the league. And now I’m facing a Raiders defense that is tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.” I sure do love poetry, especially poetry with actionable fantasy advice. Thanks, Shakespeare! … In case you skipped my Mahomes write-up, Rashee Rice is gradually emerging as the receiver you want in that KC offense. He has been targeted on 34% of his routes this season, the second-highest rate among receivers with 15-plus targets. Rice also leads all Chiefs WRs in slot targets, while the Vikings are tied for the most receptions allowed to the slot this season. … Wan’Dale Robinson got a 64% snap rate last week, up from 22% the previous game. Now he faces a Dolphins defense that struggles against the slot. … Who knew the Josh Dobbs-Zach Ertz stack would lead millions to fantasy glory? Ertz leads all tight ends with a 24.8% target share and is one of just two tight ends with 30 or more targets on the season. This week Ertz gets a Cincinnati defense that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends. … Believe it or not, Jonnu Smith has more receptions and yards than teammate Kyle Pitts this season. Yes, Arthur Smith hates us. But with Smith seeing at least a 20% target share in three straight games, if you are forced to start a Falcons tight end, it’s time to admit that Jonnu Smith is the one you want in lineups right now.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 5
Courtland Sutton vs. New York Jets
Courtland Sutton is averaging a solid 13.9 PPG this season, but 43% of his fantasy points have come on touchdowns. That’s a difficult rate to maintain. It’s even more difficult to maintain against a Jets defense that has allowed only one score to a wide receiver through four games. The Jets have also allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers overall. All of that is why I have Sutton outside my Top 30 in Week 5.
Drake London vs. Houston
Drake London has three or fewer receptions in 75% of his games this season. Again, Arthur Smith hates us. You and me. And his front office. Especially them, the way he ignores all their highly-drafted players. I have an inside source who told me Smith wakes up every morning, and the first thing he thinks about is how he will destroy our fantasy teams. I know it. I can feel it in my bones. I also know this: Houston is allowing the third-fewest yards per reception to wide receivers this season, and they have surrendered a single touchdown to the position. That’s especially significant when it comes to London, who is averaging just 8.2 PPG for his career in games in which he doesn’t have a score, including 2.6 PPG in such games this season. London is outside my Top 40 WRs for Week 5.
Gabe Davis vs. Jacksonville (in London)
Yes, Drake London, Gabe Davis playing in London … I have a lot of hate in my heart for London wide receivers this week. Davis has just 18 targets through four games and only one game on the season with more than three receptions. Similar to Courtland Sutton, the fantasy points Davis is getting are very TD-dependent. Except even more so in his case. For Davis, a full 49% of his fantasy points are on touchdown passes. With Jacksonville allowing the second-lowest completion rate on deep passes, Davis is in line for a disappointing performance.
Cole Kmet at Washington
It’s looking more and more like the highlight of Chicago’s season will be Cole Kmet’s touchdown celebration from last week. Speaking of Kmet and touchdowns, both of his scores last week came on busted coverages in which he was left wide open. That’s unlikely to happen again, especially not against a Washington team that has allowed the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season. By the way, Kmet has less than 45 receiving yards in three of his four games this season. Bears fans, maybe just skip the game this week and watch that TD celebration over and over on YouTube. Kmet is just my TE 13 in Week 5.
