The bio on my Instagram profile reads like this:
#Fantasyfootball #sportsbetting for @snfonnbc @nbcsports @peacock and founder of @mbfantasylife. I’m just as surprised as you at all of it.
It’s that last sentence that is the most accurate one, really.
Look, I’ve had a super nutty life. When I was in college, my job didn’t even exist. And the way that I got to this job is a long, windy road that I would not recommend anyone try to duplicate. I’ve gotten to meet people, participate in projects, and experience things that I have no business doing, seeing, or living.
And yet, I am insanely lucky, and it keeps happening.
As my bio says, I’m just as surprised as you at all of it.
Like, for example, a few weeks ago when I got an email from the White House.
Yes.
THAT White House.
“Dear Mr. Berry,
Please see your invitation below for a Holiday Reception to be held at the White House on Tuesday, December 17th, 2024, at 3pm. This invitation is custom to you and one guest only and non-transferable.”
WELL.
As you can imagine, I had questions. My wife had questions. And after posting photos on social media and discussing the visit briefly on Wednesday’s Fantasy Football Happy Hour, many other people had questions. Lots of questions.
So, let’s answer them.
Q: Wait, what?
A: Yeah, I did a double take too. And the invite came in an email, not like some formal fancy mailed invitation, so I thought at first, I was being catfished. But it turned out to be legit and you read it correctly. My wife and were at the White House in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday.
Q: How did you get invited?
A: It was through the Office of Digital Strategy, where, among other things, they have an intense fantasy football league and are regular readers of this column. Shout out Patrick and Evan!
Q: What was it like?
A: Well, it was a cocktail party, basically. A super fancy cocktail party in, you know, the most famous building in the world, but a cocktail party, nonetheless. It took place in the East Wing, and they really went all out. As you walked in a live band played familiar holiday music. There were wreaths, flowers, lights, and decorated trees galore. Every room was decorated in a different theme (one had a mini carousel/merry-go-round that spun, another a Nativity scene, another a sleigh filled with presents, etc. etc.) with each room having a different ornately decorated tree. Plus, multiple rooms had live music.
At the top level there was like a long hallway that had a bunch of different rooms off it and at the opposite ends of the hallway were two big ballrooms. These rooms featured a very long table of food and bars that served drinks.
If you want more of a look, I posted a bunch of photos on my Instagram (@MatthewBerryTMR)
Q: How long was the party?
A: About two hours. Fairly quick.
Q: Was it the only party?
A: No, actually. One of the reasons it was over at 5 p.m. ET is because they had to get ready for another party taking place a few hours later. Apparently, they do multiple parties a day over like a two-week time frame. I get the sense each party has a “theme” to the guest list. I heard one upcoming party is for all the big donors. Another will be for friends of the Vice President. And so on. The party I was at centered around folks with digital audiences.
Q: What does the White House smell like? Musty old D.C.? Fresh, clean-filtered modernity?
A: Honestly, if it it smelled like anything, it smelled like Christmas. It was great.
Q: What was the most surreal moment? I’m sure it all was, but what was the moment you felt normal, then suddenly realized the enormity of your surroundings?
A: Well, at the beginning. Not surprising there was a LOT of security to get through, to get to the White House. You had to show your ID like three different times at different check points, you had to go through a screening section similar to what you go through at an airport, and you get wanded. And while you’re walking around and enjoying everything (it’s all lovely and amazing), you will look over and see by the back walls, standing ready, armed secret service folks keeping a watchful eye.
Perhaps the most surreal moment that speaks to the enormity was when I went to the bathroom during the party. (Where they had White House-branded towels and soap, naturally). To get to the bathroom I had to go through a small room that was like a library. I came out of the bathroom and the door to the library was closed. As in, I was in this library room, alone, and the door to get out was closed. I opened the door to leave, and a guard was standing there, telling me to get back in. I had to wait in there, with the door closed.
Why, I asked? National security I’m told. The President and his wife were going to be walking down the hallway soon to join the party and say a few words. The hall needed to be clear, which I totally understood. I nodded and walked back into the room and closed the door. Protocol is protocol and I was NOT messing around with that. I was happy to do as I was told. But yeah, that was surreal.
Q: How was the food?
A: Great and plentiful. As one person said to me, “the food is a lot better than you think.” It was really good. I had my fill of snow crab claws and steak. My wife had a bit of everything. The eggnog is as good as advertised.
Q: When you are at a party and meet people, you don’t know, but know who you are, does anybody ask you something other than a fantasy football question?
A: For sure. If it’s not someone I know and they approach, they’ll say something kind and mention whatever they are a fan of. And this is what happened at this party as well. Some love this column, some love the podcast, others will mention “Football Night in America.” I always get some “Avengers: Endgame” questions, and occasionally folks will mention “The League.” They’ll mention they read the book, that they are a subscriber or reader of Fantasy Life, and still others will just say a generic, “big fan, love fantasy football.” And yes, of course, people will often mention fantasy football. They’ll tell me about their league, how they came to play, but you’d be surprised at how little someone is like: “Do I start this guy or that guy?” Online it’s all I get, but in person, they usually just want a photo or video for their league, and a quick conversation.
Q: Was it somber because this administration is leaving soon?
A: Not at all. People were excited to be there. It was a very festive atmosphere, and I don’t think I had one political conversation the entire time. Beth and I ran into some folks we knew, so we spent our time visiting with them, and the other conversations were with folks who recognized me and came up to say hi as I talked about above. Everyone was really nice and happy to be there.
But as long as we are talking about politics, I am very purposeful in that I don’t discuss my political views publicly. That’s not why you read/listen/follow me. There are a zillion places for political discourse if you want it. But if you come to me, that’s NOT what you’re looking for.
And while I know our country is fractured politically, I didn’t think of this event as a “political event” but rather a holiday party. It was an absolute honor to be invited to the White House and I was thrilled to go. And if I am invited next year, I will attend that. I don’t care what someone believes politically – you should always respect the Office, and it’s an incredible honor to be invited to the White House. Beyond grateful for the experience and again, huge thanks to everyone in the current Office of Digital Strategy for the invitation.
Q: When you go to an event like this and you’re mingling with others, do people admit how awesome and surreal it is to be at the White House, or do they play it pretty cool?
A: A little bit of both, but for the most part people didn’t play too cool for school. I mean, I was genuinely excited, and enjoying it, and I shared that with folks I talked to, so they were comfortable sharing it back. So, there was definitely a lot of, “This is cool, huh?” Also, “The food is good, huh?” And “Did you try the eggnog?” There weren’t a bunch of people there where this was their first rodeo, you know? So, while there was some “awe” no one was freaking out or acting odd. More of a quiet excitement and appreciation.
Q: Favorite conversation was with?
A: Gotta be Flavor Flav. Okay, so I told this story before on Fantasy Football Happy Hour, but it bears repeating here.
Last Super Bowl, I am at a DraftKings party and Flavor Flav is there. He is decked out fully, looking exactly like you’d think. Baseball hat, sunglasses, big clock around his neck. You know, Flavor Flav. Iconic. Immediately recognizable.
It’s a party, so it’s loud, but I say hi to him in his ear and tell him I’m a fan. He smiles and shakes my hand, and I bring my wife over to meet him. “And this is my wife, Beth.”
Flav extends his hand which my wife shakes and then says:
“Nice to meet you. What’s your name?”
He looks stunned. Rightfully so, by the way. I mean, I don’t think anyone has ever asked him that question before in his life. He is SO recognizable. And he’s been famous for over 30 years. I look at my wife incredulously.
But Flav, very sweetly, says, “I’m Flavor Flav.”
To which my wife, with no irony whatsoever says:
“Well, it’s nice to meet you Flavor.”
Ok. I’m horrified, but Flav just smiles, shakes her hand, and we take a picture together. I then, of course, tell this story on the show. And the clip went viral and ended up getting a lot of play.
Okay, so now we are at the White House party and there is, once again, Flavor Flav.
So, we go up to him and he recognizes me immediately. And we say hi. I remind him of the story I just told you, and he was laughing. “I saw that!”
It was an awesome moment and of course we had to take a picture.
All in all, an unforgettable experience and one I was so thrilled to get to be part of. I can’t believe a guy who talks about fake football and sports betting got invited to party at the White House with the President of the United States.
I’m just as surprised as you at all of it.
Let’s get to it. As always, be sure to check out Fantasy Football Happy Hour on Peacock, the NFL on NBC YouTube channel and wherever you get your podcasts. And a reminder you can STILL create or join a new Guillotine League for the final three weeks of the season, playing for FREE or for money (where legal) if you want.
Thanks as always to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 16
Joe Burrow vs. Cleveland
Joe Burrow has been incredible this season, and yet his team has a worse record than the team quarterbacked by Kirk Cousins. My point is this: Football is dumb. But playing Joe Burrow in fantasy? That is smart. Over his last five home games, Joe Burrow is averaging 24.1 fantasy PPG and has three or more touchdown passes in four of those games. Since Week 8, he’s averaging a league-high 8.9 pass attempts in the red zone per game. Now, he faces a Cleveland team that allows the most yards per completion, and teams facing the Browns have the highest aDOT. By the way, do you think new Browns QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) has a turnover or two, leading to a short field for Joey B? Same. It should come as no shock that the Bengals have the third-highest implied team total this week. Or that I have Burrow as QB4 this week.
Baker Mayfield at Dallas
After cooking a good Chargers defense for four touchdown passes and 28.0 fantasy points last week, you know Baker Mayfield is going to want to do it again back in his home state. The Cowboys’ defense will likely be amenable to such a performance. Since Week 6, Dallas is allowing a league-high 21.3 PPG to quarterbacks. The Cowboys are also giving up the fifth-most yards per completion during that stretch. And now Trevon Diggs is out for the season. This game has the highest game total (48.5) of the week, with the Bucs having a top five implied team total. So yes, ‘tis the time of year to gather with friends and family and enjoy the festive delights of fantasy points hot out of the oven. It’s Baker’ing Season. He’s my QB7.
Jared Goff at Chicago
Even though this is outdoors and, on the road, this is still a great matchup for Goff. Since Week 11, the Bears are allowing a league-high 9.1 yards per pass attempt. During that same stretch, they rank 28th in pass defense and are allowing 18.0 PPG to quarterbacks. Then there’s the fact that the Bears play zone coverage at the eighth-highest rate … while Goff ranks top five in touchdown passes and YPA against zone defense. Really, the only possible downside here is if the Lions force Goff to play in a uniform made of bubble wrap since he’s essentially their last healthy player. But assuming Goff will be able to move his arm in a normal way, I have him as a top 10 fantasy quarterback this week.
Others receiving votes: The Rams are allowing the third-most yards per attempt this season. Now, they face a Jets offense that leads the league in red zone pass rate since Week 11. Over that same span, Aaron Rodgers has multiple touchdown passes in three of four games. Your dreams have come true, Jets fans. Aaron Rodgers is actually relevant in the playoffs. … This time last year, Bill Belichick was with the Patriots and Drake Maye was in Chapel Hill. Now, they’ve completely swapped. You think they’re doing one of those body-switch movies? I mean, it would explain Belichick having a college-aged girlfriend. Anyway, Maye has 17-plus fantasy points in three of his past four games (and he’s averaging 38 rushing yards per game in his starts). This week he’ll face a Bills defense that has surrendered multiple touchdown passes in five of their past six games and will likely be ahead, with game script working in Maye’s favor. … The Detroit Lions’ defense is decimated. Heads up, if you own a Lions jersey and played at least one season of football at a JV level or higher, gonna need you to play linebacker on Sunday. Congrats. But get this: Over the past three weeks, Detroit is allowing a league-high 8.9 yards per pass attempt and passing touchdowns at the sixth-highest rate. So yeah, it’s not for the faint of heart, but Caleb Williams has a legit shot at a top 15 fantasy quarterback finish this week playing against a defense comprised of the Henry Ford High School class of 2008.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 16
Justin Herbert vs. Denver
Last week, Justin Herbert joined Peyton Manning as the only two quarterbacks in NFL history to eclipse 20,000 passing yards in their first five seasons. This week he joins Peyton Manning on a list of quarterbacks I’m not starting in fantasy in Week 16. Over the last four weeks, Herbert is just QB25 in PPG (13.3). And now he’s heading into a matchup with one of the league’s best defenses. On a Thursday night. While battling an injury. Don’t forget: Since Week 2, only two quarterbacks have managed 17 or more points against the Broncos. No, thank you. I have Herbert outside my top 20 quarterbacks this week.
C.J. Stroud at Kansas City
You have to go back to Week 4 to find a game in which C.J. Stroud has finished higher than QB14, and he’s been QB18 or worse in eight of his past nine games. Away from Houston this season, Stroud is averaging just 12.7 PPG. In fact, he’s posted less than 15 fantasy points in five of his seven road games. And playing Kansas City on the road is obviously not ideal. Over the past four weeks, the Chiefs are allowing the fewest fantasy PPG to quarterbacks. The Texans have a bottom five implied team total this week, lower than both the Jaguars and Titans. So, just as I’m not starting Mac Jones and Mason Rudolph this week, I’m also not starting Stroud. I have him down at QB20.
Running Backs I Love in Week 16
Jahmyr Gibbs at Chicago
The Lions would obviously prefer to have their two-headed monster at running back. But do you know what’s also pretty scary? A monster with just one regular head. Especially when it has the head of Jahmyr Gibbs, who has been terrorizing defenses since he entered the NFL. In Gibbs’ 10 career games with 17-plus touches, he’s averaging 22.4 PPG. When David Montgomery missed three games last season, Gibbs averaged 23 touches and 132 scrimmage yards. But not only will Gibbs see increased usage in Montgomery’s absence, he’ll see it against a Bears defense that has been struggling mightily of late. Over their past five games, the Bears are allowing the third-most fantasy PPG to running backs. Chicago is giving up 168 scrimmage yards per game to backs over that stretch, as well. Gibbs will be a monster on Sunday. Wonder if he can play defense? Either way he’s my RB1.
Josh Jacobs vs. New Orleans
The Saints are massive 14-point underdogs this week at Green Bay. But at least the game is forecast to be played in snow and 20-something degree temps. So, regardless of the scoreboard, it will almost feel festive. Like being bludgeoned over the head with a beautiful snow globe. Nice! Anyway, not only has Josh Jacobs had a great season, but he’s also been especially good in Green Bay’s wins, averaging 20-plus fantasy points in each of the Packers’ last six victories. Meanwhile, running backs who see 15-plus touches against the Saints are averaging 22.5 PPG, and 10 of those 11 backs who saw 15-plus touches scored at least one touchdown. Jacobs is in line for another big game in Week 16. I have him at RB3.
James Conner at Carolina
We talk a lot in fantasy about individual players who can be “league winners.” But football is the ultimate team sport. There are also teams who can win fantasy leagues. Get this: Over the past four weeks, Carolina is allowing 160 rush yards per game and 5.8 YPC to running backs. That’s a league-winning defensive unit right there and I commend the Panthers for their contributions to the cause. For the season, Carolina has allowed fewer than 20 fantasy points to running backs in only two games. And now the Panthers will face James Conner. The guy who, since Week 7, ranks top 10 among running backs in touches per game (19.5) and target share (13%)? Conner is a top five back this week.
Others receiving votes: Buffalo RB James Cook has seen multiple goal-line rushes in five of his past six games, so chances are high he dents the end zone against the Patriots in a game in which Buffalo has the highest implied team total of the week. By the way, the Patriots have given up 17-plus fantasy points to a back in each of their past three games. … Since Christian McCaffrey was placed on IR two games ago, Isaac Guerendo has received 79% of San Francisco’s team RB touches. He’s also averaging 18.5 touches and a 10.5% target share in those games (19.2 PPG). But he’s also a 49ers back, so he’s nursing an injury. Monitor his status up until kickoff but if he’s active, and you’re feeling lucky, fire him up. … Jacksonville has the league’s 24th-ranked run defense, so (can’t believe I’m writing this but) if you’re desperate consider Alexander Mattison against the Jaguars. Sincere McCormick and Zamir White are both on IR and Ameer Abdullah has only two games this season with more than five carries, while Mattison averaged 13.1 PPG this season in his four games as lead back. … Tony Pollard continues to nurse injuries, which last week paved the way for Tyjae Spears to get a season-high 55% snap rate. Spears even played seven more snaps than Pollard did. Now Spears faces a Colts defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing the fifth-most PPG to running backs. It turns out that backs who play the Colts don’t toss the ball away before crossing the goal line. Savvy move.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 16
Joe Mixon at Kansas City
Joe Mixon has under 11 fantasy points in two of his past three games, and less than 2.0 YPC in three of his past five games. Hey, maybe Joe should MIX IN some fantasy production, amiright? Go ahead! Throw tomatoes at me! Tomatoes aren’t even in season! You’re only costing yourself more money. Ha! Where was I? Ah, yes. Great jokes and fantasy analysis. Let’s move onto the analysis portion. The Chiefs are a bad matchup. Kansas City has allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. Only one back all season has run for more than 65 yards against them. That was Jerome Ford last week … but he got the bulk of his yardage on one 62-yard run. That feels like an aberration. It’s simply hard to run against the Chiefs with any consistency. In fact, of the 12 backs to see 10-plus rushes against the Chiefs this season, only two averaged more than 3.9 YPC. With the Texans more or less locked into their playoff position, and Mixon seemingly a bit banged up, he could see a diminished workload as well. I have Joe Mixon outside my top 10 at the position this week.
Najee Harris at Baltimore
Baltimore allows a league-low 3.4 YPC to running backs. Saquon Barkley is the only back to rush for more than 63 yards against the Ravens all season. That said, it’s not impossible for a back to put up fantasy points against Baltimore. In fact, six RBs have gone for 15-plus points against the Ravens. But they did it in the passing game, with 56% of their points in those games coming from receiving. Najee Harris, meanwhile, has two or fewer targets in four of his past six games. He also isn’t doing much on the ground, averaging 3.2 YPC since Week 10. Add to it that the Steelers have the fourth-lowest implied team total this week, and I have Harris way down at RB28.
Isiah Pacheco vs. Houston
Since returning from IR, Isiah Pacheco is averaging just 6.6 PPG, earning 53% of RB touches, a 39% snap rate, and a 5% target share. Don’t love it! Now he faces a Texans team that, since Week 9, is allowing the fifth-fewest PPG to running backs. During that stretch, only two backs have scored 13-plus points against Houston … but both needed at least 19 touches to do it. You’re still probably starting Pacheco on Saturday, but you may want to cover your eyes. Maybe even wear an eye patch. Or … an I-Pach. Go ahead. Throw another tomato. I dare you. Ouch! That hurt! Wait, another one?!
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 16
Mike Evans at Dallas
Mike Evans holds the NFL record for 10 consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start an NFL career. After missing three games this season, hitting 11 in a row seemed like a long shot. But after going for 159 against the Chargers last week, Evans now needs to average “just” 83.7 yards per game over the final three weeks to make it 11 seasons out of 11. Baker Mayfield made it clear this week that he’d like to help Evans get there. In the four games since Evans has returned, Mayfield is giving him a 28.8% target share. This week Evans gets a Dallas defense that has given up 20-plus fantasy points to a WR in three of their past four games … and now the Cowboys are down Trevon Diggs. Give me Evans as a top 10 WR this week.
Brian Thomas, Jr. at Las Vegas
Brian Thomas, Jr. has a 30.8% target share from Mac Jones over his past four games. Over that same stretch, Thomas has seen 67% of Jacksonville’s end zone targets and is WR8 in PPG (20.4). I think it’s safe to say that Brian Thomas is all about that Mac-tion. Thomas should keep things going this week against a Raiders defense that, over the past four weeks, is tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers. During the same time period, WRs who have seen a 20% target share against Vegas are averaging 17.8 PPG. Thomas is in my top 15 at the position this week.
DJ Moore vs. Detroit
In the five games since the Bears asked Shane Waldron to turn in his very bad playbook, DJ Moore is averaging 18.0 PPG and has a 27% target share. That span includes a Thanksgiving Day game against the Lions in which Moore saw a season-high 44% target share and put up an 8-97-1 line on the way to 23.7 fantasy points. I like Moore’s upside against that further-depleted Lions defense this Sunday. He’s my WR15.
George Kittle at Miami
Like everyone, when I think of Miami, three things come to mind: the beaches, the nightlife, and – most of all – that the Dolphins are allowing the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends since Week 8. Miami especially struggles against elite tight ends. Both Trey McBride and Brock Bowers put up 20-plus on them. So, I have George Kittle as my TE2 against the Dolphins this week. Over Kittle’s last nine games, only twice has he seen a target share under 22%.
Others receiving votes: If Geno Smith plays, I’m also playing Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Since DK Metcalf returned from injury, it’s actually been Smith-Njigba performing as Seattle’s WR1. He’s WR10 in PPG over that time period and has seen a 26% target share. This week he faces a Vikings team that ranks bottom five in receptions and yards allowed to the slot. … Aidan O’Connell is likely to return at quarterback for the Raiders this week. That’s good – and not just for the 14-year-old boys he inspires with his mustache. It’s also good for Jakobi Meyers, who has a 30.5% target share from O’Connell this season. Meyers also has a good matchup against a Jaguars team that, since Week 11, allows the third-most PPG to wide receivers. … With Dallas Goedert out, DeVonta Smith needs to be in lineups. In the five games Goedert has missed this season, Smith has a 31% target share and is averaging 16.3 PPG. Smith has also seen at least one end zone target in five of his past six games. … Since Week 10, a whopping 42% of the targets going the way of Jameson Williams have come on deep passes. Look for him to get open deep on a Bears defense that is bottom five in both yards and receptions allowed on deep passes. … While Dorian Thompson-Robinson sadly doesn’t eat W’s or pray to be delivered from pick-sixes (at least as far as I know), he does throw the ball to David Njoku. In fact, in DTR’s three career starts, Njoku has a 27% target share and double-digit fantasy points in each. … Since Week 7, the Raiders are allowing the most yards per game to tight ends. So, I’m trying to get some Strange this week. That is, Brenton Strange. The Jacksonville TE had a 28% target share last week and, in his five games this season with four-plus targets, he’s averaging 12.1 PPG.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 16
Jerry Jeudy at Cincinnati
I’m not saying that Kevin Stefanski hates fantasy. Because this is a written medium. So, I’m only typing that Kevin Stefanski hates fantasy. I mean, come on! Jerry Jeudy was earning league winner status … and now that’s completely over. Get this: In Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s three career starts, he’s averaging 140 passing yards and one passing touchdown. For a full game. That’s like a good Jameis Winston quarter (with an interception or two thrown in, yes). The most yards a WR has ever had in a DTR game is 60, and only once has a WR been able to score 10-plus fantasy points. And that was when Elijah Moore got … wait for it … 12. (Sobs uncontrollably.) I hope everyone but Kevin Stefanski has a happy holiday season. Jeudy is way down at WR34 this week.
Jaylen Waddle vs. San Francisco
The 49ers have allowed the second-fewest yards to perimeter wide receivers this season and, since Week 9, only the Eagles are allowing fewer PPG to wide receivers than the 49ers. So, the 49ers are likely to limit Jaylen Waddle’s production, and the knee injury he’s dealing with should limit him even more. Waddle is just WR30 in Week 16.
Quentin Johnston vs. Denver
Quentin Johnston has less than seven fantasy points in every game this season in which he hasn’t scored a touchdown. That’s like Nick Westbrook-Ikhine levels of TD dependency. Anyway, that’s bad news because this week Johnston gets a Broncos defense that has allowed the fewest touchdowns to wide receivers. Oh, and he’s expected to get the Patrick Surtain II shadow, too. On the positive side … uh … he plays on Thursday night? So, the misery will be over soon? Sure, let’s go with that. QJ is outside my top 40 WRs this week.
Jake Ferguson vs. Tampa Bay
In Jake Ferguson’s two games since returning from injury, he’s had a target share of just 17%. This week he faces a Bucs defense that has allowed only one touchdown to a tight end over the past six games. You know what? Let’s just pencil in “only one touchdown to a tight end over the past seven games,” because get this: Ferguson has not seen a single end zone target since Week 1. Not a one. Yikes. Maybe wave your hands around wildly when you get in the end zone, Jake? Jump up and down? Shoot off fireworks that spell out “I’M OPEN! I’M OPEN!” I’m just trying to help. Take it or leave it. But until the Cowboys remember you exist in the part of the field where points are scored, you’re down at TE14.
