“Well, what if you just didn’t write an open?”
It’s a lunch meeting with one of my big bosses at NBC Sports and we are talking about “Love/Hate.”
It’s a well-meaning suggestion from him and one I’ve heard before.
I pause, considering it, gathering my thoughts before I decide how I want to respond.
Hold that thought and let’s go to the beginning.
First, I’m not sure exactly what the proper technical term is to call it.
“It” is this. The opening story I write every week for “Love/Hate.” Is it an intro? A prelude? A long-winded, self-serving, egocentric ramble that more often than not has very little to do with fantasy football?
“All of the above” is the correct answer to the question but whatever you’re supposed to call it, to me it’s always just been “the open.”
It’s been with me since the beginning.
The very first column I ever wrote, a fantasy basketball column for, yes, Rotoworld, was in 1999 and the first thing in that column was a story that had absolutely NOTHING to do with fantasy basketball.
People HATED it. With a fiery passion. This was before social media, but they sent angry emails. They sent Rotoworld angry emails. They yelled about it on message boards everywhere.
There was only one issue.
I liked it.
I liked the open. I liked the story. I liked the writing in the story. I thought it was a funny story.
I also thought at that time there was a lot (I mean A LOT) of sameness in fantasy sports content. All of it fairly dry, really heavy on statistics and very low on personality. Or fun. None of it was fun. It was written like homework. Dammit, this is a game. A game we play for FUN. Why isn’t anyone smiling?
I also enjoyed writing it, which was key but there was also purpose behind it. I thought writing an open like this every week would be a way to differentiate myself as I was trying to break in. That there may not be a lot in this world that I am very good at, but mama I can damn sure talk about myself. And I wasn’t getting paid for this column – it was something I was doing for fun – so I might as well write it how I wanted and who cares what anyone else thinks?
So, I didn’t want to change anything and every day I thank the lord my first editor at Rotoworld (and he’s still here as my friend and colleague – the legend FSWA Hall of Famer Matthew Pouliot) didn’t flinch. He got the emails. He just shrugged. I don’t remember exactly what he said, but it was something to the effect of “Whatever. Keep writing. Keep doing what you want. If at some point no one is reading it, we’ll talk, but until then, just do you.” Or some such.
So I wrote another column, again with a long open, this time printing all that hate mail I had gotten. And wouldn’t you know it, but more people read the column in Week 2 than in Week 1. And then in Week 3 our numbers were better than in Week 2. And so it went. Plenty of people still hated it, but eventually some people started to dig what I was doing and most importantly both sides were reading it. And as a result Rotoworld was very happy. It had quickly become the most read column on the site. It remained that way for four and half years until I felt I had a big enough audience to go start my own website, which I did. And I kept writing the opens. In order to get promotion for the new website I started a deal with “The Sporting News” where they would also run “Love/Hate.” Complete with the long opening story. And a whole new audience got to read it, hate it, send me angry emails and then eventually get used to it. Rinse, repeat, they also stuck with it. Shout out to Brendan Roberts and Mike Nahrstedt at “The Sporting News” who fought the good fight for me there.
The pattern repeated itself when I sold my website to ESPN in 2007 and I started writing there. There was no site as big as ESPN at that point and if I thought I got hate mail and angry comments before, that was a bunch of love kisses compared to ESPN’s audience getting a load of me. Now they not only yelled at me on ESPN message boards, but they started complaining on message boards around the internet. Long threads where people would yell to others about me. But ESPN stuck behind me as well and the same pattern emerged. They’d get angry, but they’d read, they kept coming back, they eventually got used to it and liked it and eventually it was the most read regular column – for all sports – on ESPN for many many years.
And when I came to back to Rotoworld last year the new bosses wanted me to, you guessed, continue writing “Love/Hate.”
All in all, I’ve now been writing this column – “Love/Hate” – every week during the football season for 24 straight years.
Every single one of them with…“the open.”
To me, it’s what makes Love/Hate, well, “Love/Hate.” Yes there’s player analysis of course and that’s the core of the column, diving into players I believe will exceed or fall short of expectations in fantasy football for that specific week with some jokes, stats and easy to read writing. But the open, well, the open is my thing. It’s the thing that separates me from others. It’s the thing, when fans come up to me on the street, always mention. They never say, like, thank you for Amon-Ra St. Brown or David Montgomery or Puka Nacua this year. It’s always like… “I loved the story about your daughter breaking her arms” or whatever. It’s the thing that I’m most known for.
It’s also the thing that kills me.
I’ve written about much of this before, but honestly, I feel like I’ve written everything before. That’s part of the problem. You do anything for 24 years and you’re like… okay, I’m good here. The other part of the problem is time. To do the open takes FOREVER. I envy other writers who are efficient and can write quickly. That ain’t me. I labor over everything. Write, re-write and then after tinkering with it for an hour, deleting it entirely and going down a new path. Writing takes forever. Which earlier in my career was fine. What else was I gonna do?
But now, with a daily hour long show live at noon (Fantasy Football Happy Hour, available on Peacock, NFL on NBC YouTube channel and wherever you get your podcasts), a Sunday morning show (Fantasy Football Pregame, 11am-1pm ET on Peacock and NFL on NBC YouTube page and this Sunday LIVE IN PHILLY at the Applebee’s on Roosevelt Blvd), Football Night in America plus the SNF post game show on Peacock and my weekly rankings and of course, reading, writing and researching… that’s a truly full-time job before you ever get to writing a 5,000-plus word column.
It’s exhausting. It hurts too. Don’t laugh. I have insane lower back pain and I can’t find a good chair to save my life to write this thing in. All of this is a long way of saying I don’t want to write the column anymore.
In fairness, I have said this for years. To my bosses and sometimes to my readers. Literally, years and years I have sworn this is the last year of “Love/Hate” and of course, I take a break over the summer and by the time August rolls back around I’m back writing. So, understand this is a little like “The Who” constantly announcing their final tour only to be back out on the road a year or two later.
Which brings me back to the lunch with my boss, where I have just told him what I have told you. That I love NBC and hope I’m here for a long time, doing lots of things, just not the column. And I explain to him everything I have told you – how time consuming it is, how it takes so much time away from family, how it’s physically hurting me on some level, how exhausted I am, how much I would love this year to be the end of the column.
My boss says all the right things. They care about me. They care about my health. They care about my desires. But they also care about the column. The column is still incredibly popular – people have come and found me here from ESPN in part by searching for the column and that’s incredibly flattering. “Love/Hate” drives a tremendous amount of traffic and time spent every week for NBCSports.com and Rotoworld.com. There are also many extensions of it every week, from the specific “Love/Hate” podcast of Fantasy Football Happy Hour to digital videos to social integrations… it’s a whole thing. So, you know, he’d prefer if I didn’t quit it.
Which brings me back to the start of this story.
“Well, what if you just didn’t write an open?”
The idea, of course, would be that if I didn’t write the open, the time working on it would hopefully be cut in half (or at least cut down significantly) and it would still provide a utility and purpose for readers looking for fantasy advice for that week, written in my specific style.
And it makes total sense from every logical point of view. From a time spent perspective, to what bandwidth I have left, to what the ultimate purpose of the column is – give fantasy football advice – it is a smart, sound, completely reasonable suggestion that makes total sense.
And yet, it’s not anything I’m interested in. Again, without the open it’s just another version of a start / sit column and does the world really need another one of those? As I’ve said, I’ve always felt the open is what makes “Love/Hate” what it is and I’d rather kill it than do a watered down version of it.
He understands that, but he also says we don’t have enough data on it.
My ears perk up.
He explains.
He tells me they know the impressive traffic and how much time is spent with the column. (A great number, by the way. GREAT. Thank you for finding me every week!).
So, we know a lot of people read it each week. What we don’t know is… why? Do they skip the intro and go straight to the players? Do they read the open and then scroll to see if I mention any of their guys? Do they just skim everything? Do they just read the open and bail? Anecdotally, I have heard all reactions like that. Some that skip the intro because they wish I’d just shut up and get on with it. Some that don’t think my advice is any good, but they do think I’m a good writer, so they read the open and then bounce. Some who just like to read it every week just so they can complain about it. And many who come for the whole damn thing. At least that’s what I think, but it’s based on nothing but gut feel and various things I hear from readers. But I definitely don’t know for sure.
So, my boss is suggesting, let’s see if we can figure it out. A compromise. An experiment.
Do one column without an intro. See if people like it. Or hate it. Let’s see what the traffic is. Maybe people won’t miss it, traffic will be the same and that’ll be that. You can make your life easier. Or, maybe traffic will go way down and then we will know.
So, I agreed to that. An experiment where the “Love/Hate” column will have no opening story and just right into the meat of the column — the players I love and the players I hate that week. Now, obviously, this is NOT that column. Because if I just did that in this column, it wouldn’t prove anything. People expect an open every week and if they came here this week without advance knowledge that there wouldn’t be an open… traffic likely stays the same.
BUT!
What if I told people in advance there would be no open the following week? Then they could choose if they wanted to come read it without an open or ignore it because there wasn’t one.
That week is next week, Week 8. Next week is my daughter’s birthday and I’m gonna spend it with my family so no time for a long drawn out open. Next week will just be “Hey, here’s my Love/Hate for Week 8.” So you’ve been forewarned. And then we are going to see what the traffic is next week and make a decision. To be clear, the decision is on open vs. no open for the rest of the year. If nothing else, I will finish out the year writing “Love/Hate” every week.
SO. If you are a fan of the open you should NOT read next week. If you are like “The open is annoying Berry. Just get to the players” then you should absolutely read next week. If numbers are still high next week with no open, I’ll have to reconsider my stance.
I’m fascinated to find out. And to be honest, I’m not even sure what outcome I’m rooting for. But either way, I’ll keep you posted. In a long, self-serving, egocentric rambling story that has nothing to do with fantasy football. Because, you know, Berry gonna Berry.
With that a quick housekeeping note before we get to it.
THIS SUNDAY MORNING – for those that skipped the intro LOL – we will be doing Fantasy Football Pregame LIVE and IN PERSON in PHILADELPHIA at the Applebee’s on Roosevelt Boulevard. Doors open at 10:30 a.m. ET and show starts live at 11 a.m. ET. Come get your questions answered in person. And if you can’t make it, be sure to watch live on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Hope to see you there. Let’s get to it. It’s Bye-mageddon this week with six teams on bye and many other players banged up. Here’s to you getting through unscathed. Thanks, as always, to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 7
Tua Tagovailoa at Philadelphia
Tua Tagovailoa is now deep into the fellow-Alabama-quarterbacks portion of his schedule. Last week, he got Bryce Young and the Panthers. This week, he gets Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. And then next week he plays Mac Jones for the second time this season … and maybe for the last time ever, based on Jones’ current career trajectory? Ba-dum-ba! But let’s focus more on the positive. And there are lots of positives for Tua this week against the Eagles. Teams facing Philadelphia are averaging 39 pass attempts per game, fourth-most overall, and the Eagles allow passing touchdowns at the seventh-highest rate. Meanwhile, Tua leads all quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt this season. Add to it that this game is projected to be a shootout with the week’s highest Over/Under (52), and there’s every reason to think Tua is in line for a big day. I have him as my QB 3 this week. Roll Tide!
Geno Smith vs. Arizona
Some Seahawks fans are worrying again that Geno Smith is not the long-term answer. But this is fantasy football. I don’t care about the long term. I care about this week, and this week Geno Smith is playing an Arizona defense that, so far this season, allows 19.7 PPG to quarterbacks (fifth-most) and the third-most yards per pass attempt. Smith has 35-plus pass attempts in three of his past four games and the Seahawks enter this game with the third-highest implied team total of the week. I see a bounce-back game for Smith in Week 7. I see Smith as a Top 7 quarterback. And I see Seattle fans feeling better about Smith after this one.
Brock Purdy at Minnesota
Last week, Brock Purdy finally proved that he is human. Or, maybe the Cleveland Browns defense proved that they will be humanity’s only hope for survival when the robots rise up to destroy us all. Either way, last week will look like nothing more than a little crack in the matrix thanks to the Vikings’ defense. Quarterbacks facing the Vikings this season are completing 75% of their passes and Minnesota allows the third-highest passer rating to opposing QBs. One thing the Vikings do well, or at least try to do well, is blitz. They lead the league in blitz rate. Good, right? Not necessarily. Because Purdy has five touchdown passes when blitzed this season, tied for the fourth-most. And with Christian McCaffrey potentially missing this game or being less than 100%, Purdy may be forced to throw even more in a plus matchup on Monday night. Give me Purdy as a Top 8 fantasy quarterback again in Week 7.
Others receiving votes: It’s not all bad news for the Broncos this year. Denver allows passing touchdowns at the highest rate this season and the Broncos are also allowing the most yards per pass attempt. So, uh, they lead in some categories! So sure, it’s bad news for the long-term job prospects of Denver defensive coordinator Vance Joseph, but great news for Jordan Love managers in Week 7 who has had two weeks to prep for this game and should finally have all his pass catchers healthy for this one… Over the past four weeks, the Giants are allowing passing touchdowns at the sixth-highest rate. (One fun way to track this stat is by charting the different shades of enraged purple that Brian Daboll turns during games.) Meanwhile, over the past three weeks, Sam Howell is averaging 21.1 PPG. He also has 18-plus points in four of his past five games. Plus, the deficiencies of Washington’s defense are a benefit to those starting Future Hall of Famer Sam Howell (as only I call him)... Josh Dobbs should be able to do some damage with his arm and his legs this week in Seattle. The Seahawks are a tough run defense but they allow the fifth-most passing yards per game and, in four of his past five games, Dobbs has 40-plus rushing yards. Also, quietly, Kyler Murray returned to practice this week. Worth looking to see if he’s floating out there on your waiver wire. (66% avail on Yahoo, 87% avail on ESPN).
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 7
Kirk Cousins vs. San Francisco
It was reported last week that Kirk Cousins has no intention of waiving his no-trade clause. And I get it. Kirk Cousins is a loyal guy who really likes leverage to force teams to pay him even more insane amounts of money. Smart. But I wonder if he should have looked ahead on Minnesota’s schedule before making his wishes known? Because I can’t imagine any quarterback wants to play the 49ers if they have a way out. That part is dumb. The 49ers have twice as many interceptions as touchdown passes allowed this season and they’re allowing just 5.5 yards per pass attempt, third-fewest overall. San Francisco is also giving up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. In fact, four of the six quarterbacks to face them this season have scored single-digit fantasy points. And now Cousins is taking them on without Justin Jefferson. No, thanks. Even in a week with six teams on a bye, Cousins is outside my Top 12 for Week 7.
Trevor Lawrence at New Orleans
A quarterback with an injured knee, playing on a short week, on the road against a Top 5 pass defense? I hate pretty much every word in that entire sentence. I also hate that the Saints allow the second-lowest passer rating to quarterbacks. And I hate that Trevor Lawrence has less than 18 fantasy points in every game this season. And, most of all, I hate the idea of starting Lawrence in fantasy this week. Oh, and if he’s out this week, I doubly hate C.J. Beathard. He’s outside my Top 15 QBs.
Running Backs I Love in Week 7
Josh Jacobs at Chicago
Josh Jacobs has three games in a row with 25-plus touches, accounting for 87% of the Raiders’ RB touches over the same stretch. His usage is simply off the charts. Granted, a few years back the RB usage charts I use were made much smaller because running backs aren’t used as much as they used to be, but still … the charts! He’s off them! Anyway … Chicago allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this season. The Bears have also given up the most receiving yards to backs, while Jacobs leads the entire position in target share this season at 18%. This one is an easy call: Josh Jacobs is a Top 3 back for me this week.
Kenneth Walker vs. Arizona
Every starting running back to face the Cardinals this season has seen 20-plus touches. Even more impressive? Those starting backs are averaging 23.3 PPG against Arizona. So, I’ve made some calls, leaned on some contacts and insiders, and I can report - exclusively - that Kenneth Walker is Seattle’s starting running back. So, yeah … pretty good matchup for him. By the way, Walker leads all running backs in goal-to-go carries this season, while the Cardinals are bottom-five in rushing touchdowns allowed to the position. I have Walker as RB 4 in Week 7.
D’Andre Swift vs. Miami
Since Week 2, D’Andre Swift is averaging 18.9 PPG, good enough for RB 7 over that stretch. Even last week, when the Jets held him to 18 yards on 10 carries, Swift still reeled in eight catches and a receiving touchdown. It’s that usage in the passing game that gives him such a high floor. Over the past three weeks, Swift has an 18% target share and at least four receptions in every game. Now he faces a Dolphins defense that allows the second-most yards per receptions to running backs. Swift is a Top 8 back this week. Wait … I feel like I’m missing something important. Oh, right, right … D’Andre Swift has the same last name as Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift is dating Travis Kelce. Taylor Swift dating rumors. Taylor Swift was on Saturday Night Live last week. Right here on NBC. Taylor Swift. Alright, that should help a lot for the keyword search traffic. It certainly did last week when I used the same joke. About Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift. Taylor Swift. Ok. Thanks for humoring me there. I believe all these mentions of Taylor Swift will increase my pageviews by 4.7 billion percent. (Rough estimate)
Others receiving votes: Over the past four weeks, Isiah Pacheco is averaging 19.8 touches. He also had a career-high 15% target share last week, marking his third game of the season with a double-digit target share. Now he faces a Chargers team that allows the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. … In his three games as a starter, Jerome Ford is averaging 15 touches and has an 11% target share. This week he gets a Colts defense that has allowed seven rushing scores to running backs, tied for third-most. That’s why I think that this week Ford will perform more like a Model-T than an Edsel. (This joke is specifically for my readers aged 90 and older. Appreciate you!) … How short-handed are the Rams at running back right now? As of this writing, Zack Evans is the only active running back on the roster with a touch this season. That’s right, we’re talking as short-handed as a T-Rex. (This joke is specifically for my readers who are 4th graders. Appreciate you!) This week Evans will face a Steelers team allowing 4.8 YPC to running backs, fifth-most in the NFL. Just to be clear, Sean McVay was asked about Zach Evans and he went out of his way, it seemed, to NOT talk up Evans. The best thing I can say about Evans is that he’s been there. But they haven’t used him at all this year. McVay could very easily give a shot to Royce Freeman, Darrell Henderson or Myles Gaskin as well. But I wanted to mention Evans because I think, if you are starting a Rams RB this week (and this week you very well may need to) Evans is the best bet, but he is not without risk. … Green Bay is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game on the season to running backs. That means Jaleel McLaughlin is worth consideration this week in PPR leagues. He has three straight games with nine-plus touches, as well as a season-high snap rate of 40% last week. … Speaking of snap rates – and isn’t that what all the kids are talking about these days? – Latavius Murray had a season-high snap rate (47%) last week, too. He also played on 67% of Buffalo’s third and fourth down snaps and saw all three of their running back touches inside the 10. With Damien Harris out, Murray should get all the high-value touches in a game where the Bills are (as of this writing) 9-point favorites against the Patriots on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 7
Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor vs. Cleveland
Everyone is looking for a good deal with the holidays fast approaching, and this week I’m offering a 2-for-1 deal on Colts running back Hate. You’re welcome! Zack Moss, Jonathan Taylor, Edgerrin James … I don’t care who is carrying the ball this week against that Cleveland front seven. Yes, I know that Taylor’s usage is trending up, from a snap rate of 15% in Week 5 to 42% in Week 6. That’s good for the rest of the season, but extra work won’t do much against a Browns defense that is allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game to backs and - through five games - has allowed just one rushing score to the position. And, by the way, even with increased snaps last week, Taylor still only saw 50% of the Colts’ running back touches. All that said, we still have a lot of injured running backs, plus six teams on a bye, so I can’t imagine you have the option to sit him. You’re likely starting Taylor. But in a timeshare situation with a bad matchup, I’d certainly lower expectations for Taylor who is merely a low-end RB2 in Week 7, while Moss is down to a risky touchdown dependent FLEX play at best.
Najee Harris at Los Angeles Rams
Do you want me to start with what I hate about this matchup or Najee Harris’ production in general? Okay, let’s go with the matchup: over the past four weeks, the Rams are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. Now for the Harris part. And, because I want to keep this column under 50,000 words, I’ll just give you just a few of the many bad Harris stats to pick from. So far this season, Najee Harris has zero games with a snap share higher than 58%. He has four consecutive games with one catch or less (and a 6% target share in that span). Finally: in fantasy points per touch this season among 56 qualified running backs, Harris is 53rd. Not good. I’d rather start Jaylen Warren this week if you really need a Steelers RB. I have Harris outside the Top 25 at the position this week … and probably most every week.
Alexander Mattison vs. San Francisco
Through six games, only two running backs have scored 12-plus fantasy points against the 49ers. San Francisco is also allowing the fifth-fewest rushing yards per game to backs. And then there’s the fact that, over the past two weeks, Alexander Mattison has just 70 rushing yards on 26 carries (2.7 YPC). So I guess the silver lining is that Mattison’s production can’t drop too much against the 49ers? Sure. Let’s go with that. Let’s also go with him being barely a Top 20 RB in a week where six teams are on a bye.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 7
Jaylen Waddle at Philadelphia
Tua Tagovailoa, Josh Jacobs and Jaylen Waddle … yes, I basically love the entire 2018 Alabama offense this week. Watch out, Vanderbilt! To be clear, I’m not comparing the defending NFC champion Philadelphia Eagles to the Vanderbilt … uh, whatever Vanderbilt is called. But the Eagles are allowing the fourth-most fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. Philadelphia has allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers, as well. Waddle enters this matchup with a 33% target share over the past two weeks, up from a 15% share from Weeks 1 through 4. Waddle also has five red zone targets over the past two games, including multiple red zone targets in both games. This Dolphins’ offense has shown it can easily produce two high-end fantasy wide receivers. I have Waddle as a Top 6 wide receiver in Week 7.
Brandon Aiyuk at Minnesota
Brandon Aiyuk has a 30% target share on the season and a share of at least 25% in every game so far this season. Love that consistency. Speaking of things that happen consistently: 49ers players getting injured. With Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel banged up, Aiyuk will likely only be a bigger part of the game plan this week. And that sets up for a very big game against the Vikings. Receivers who have seen seven or more targets versus the Vikings this season are averaging 20.5 PPG. Minnesota has also allowed the second-most YAC to receivers. Aiyuk is my WR 10 this week.
Jakobi Meyers at Chicago
Jakobi Meyers’ revenge game against the Patriots last week went well, putting up a 5-61-1 line for 17.1 fantasy points in a win. I’m not sure if he has any reasons for revenge this week against the Bears. Maybe a bear took his family’s picnic basket once? Who knows. But I’m not sure Meyers needs extra motivation to put up numbers on Chicago. The Bears are tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers this season, while Meyers already has three games this season with multiple red zone targets. Meyers has also performed well against pretty much everyone this season. He has 15-plus fantasy points in four of his five games this season, only missing that mark in Week 4 when Aidan O’Connell started at quarterback. Now, for sure, I think Davante Adams has a monster game this week as a squeaky wheel but Meyers should still get his. I have Jakobi Meyers as a Top 20 WR for me in Week 7.
Dallas Goedert vs. Miami
So far this season, the Miami Dolphins rank bottom-10 in both receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. The two tight ends who saw seven-plus targets against the Dolphins this season – Darren Waller and Hunter Henry – scored 16-plus fantasy points. With Dallas Goedert seeing a 21% target share since Week 2, including seven-plus targets in four of those five games, there’s every reason to think he can join Waller and Henry on that list. But for now, he’s on my Week 7 Love list as a Top 5 tight end.
Others receiving votes: Detroit has allowed at least 13.5 points to wide receivers in three straight games. That’s good news for Zay Flowers managers this week. Flowers has a 28% target share for the Ravens over his past four games. … The Giants have allowed a touchdown to a wide receiver in five straight games, while Terry McLaurin has double-digit targets in two of his last three games. That’s right, Scary Terry could be back just in time for Halloweeen. … Wait a minute. Kyle Pitts scored a touchdown last week and Drake London is averaging 8.4 targets over his past five games? Is it possible that the Atlanta Falcons have hatched a crazy strategy to give the ball to their talented players? Either way, I like London’s upside against a Tampa defense allowing the seventh-most yards per game to wide receivers this season. … Seahawks rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw a season-high 72% snap rate last week coming off of Seattle’s bye. Increased involvement could lead to good things against a Cardinals defense allowing the third-highest catch rate to wide receivers. … Wan’Dale Robinson now has three straight games with at least five receptions and last week he saw a season-high 26% target share. Do I want him to continue to emerge this week as the Giants’ top receiver against my Washington Commanders? No! I do not! But I long ago learned that what I would like to happen with my favorite team almost never happens. I keep saying this but Wan’Dale is gonna be a thing this year and I like the chances of it starting this week… Since Week 3, Jonnu Smith ranks Top 8 in targets among tight ends and has three straight games with double-digit fantasy points. So yeah, that Kyle Pitts score last week was probably just a fluke. Sigh. … Luke Musgrave has at least seven targets in each of his last two full games. This week he takes on a Denver defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 7
George Pickens at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy PPG to wide receivers this season. They have also allowed just one touchdown to a wide receiver all season. Sure, Pickens can always break one. But with Diontae Johnson expected to return to action this week, Pickens will likely get fewer opportunities to make plays in an offense that is, uh … not exactly explosive. Don’t forget: Pickens had a season-low 15% target share in Week 1 when Johnson was in uniform. I have Pickens just outside my Top 30 this week.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Green Bay
Okay, so maybe I don’t Love everyone this week from the 2018 Alabama offense. Here we are entering Week 7 and Jerry Jeudy has yet to see an end zone target. He also has less than 55 receiving yards in four of his five games this season. With the Packers allowing the fifth-fewest receiving yards per game to wide receivers, it’s more likely than not that Jeudy’s bad season continues through Sunday. I have him outside my Top 35 at the position this week.
Gabe Davis at New England
Gabe Davis has four or fewer targets in three of his past four games. He also is averaging just 4.3 PPG this season in games in which he doesn’t score a touchdown. “But Matthew, why are you taking such a myopic view? Take a broader view of his production. Come on, man!” Okay, you’re right. Let’s go back to last season. Yes, last season … when Davis had 54 combined receiving yards in his two games against the Patriots. Gabe Davis is a touchdown or bust option this week (and really, every week). He’s outside my Top 40 wide receivers in Week 7.
Tyler Higbee vs. Pittsburgh
My little Cooper Kupp’s cup does not runneth over with targets for Tyler Higbee. I know. What do you want from me? It’s the end of the column. You’ll take what jokes you can get. Anyways, in the two games since Kupp has returned, Higbee has six total targets and an 11% target share. Higbee also has zero end zone targets this season. None of that makes me feel especially optimistic entering a game against a Steelers defense that allows the sixth-lowest catch rate to tight ends.
