These are the times that try men’s souls.
When Thomas Paine wrote those famous words in 1776, he was, I am almost positive, referring to his 12-team Superflex league with his buddies from Valley Forge.
I’ve used that opening joke before. But the more things change, the more they stay the same. Despite being many years old, Paine’s words ring truer than ever.
These first two weeks have been brutal.
We’ve seen big name QBs falter. Through two weeks, Desmond Ridder has more total fantasy points than Lamar Jackson. Mac Jones has more than Jalen Hurts. Joe Burrow is hurt and questionable for Week 3.
We’ve seen elite tight ends Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews miss games.
At wide receiver, Cooper Kupp has yet to play a game and will be out for at least another two. Garrett Wilson lost his QB for the year. We’re still waiting on Christian Watson and as I write this Jaylen Waddle is in the concussion protocol.
But running back, man, running back has been decimated. J.K. Dobbins is out for the year. David Montgomery is dealing with a thigh bruise. Kenneth Gainwell seemed like he’d be a thing and then promptly missed Week 2 (and maybe lost his job?). Cam Akers had a starting job, lost it, was a healthy scratch and now is in Minnesota, surely lowering the value of Alexander Mattison, whose big preseason calling card was lots of guaranteed volume. Now, nothing is guaranteed. Jamaal Williams was supposed to be a starter for at least three games and after a tough Week 1 leaves Week 2 early only to see Tony Jones score two rushing TDs that should have gone to Williams.
But it’s the top 12 RBs that have really been destroyed so early in the season.
Jonathan Taylor is on IR and who knows how that situation resolves itself. Current reporting has Saquon Barkley missing around three games and he’s already been ruled out of Thursday night’s game against the Niners. Aaron Jones missed Week 2 with a hamstring injury and as of this writing we don’t know how he’s looking for Week 3 and beyond. Speaking of no idea, there is currently “no timetable for Austin Ekeler’s return.”
So, while we hope for the best with Ekeler, we do have a timetable for Nick Chubb’s return and it’s not until next season. Absolutely devastating.
Ekeler, Chubb, Barkley, JT, Jones. Five of the top 12 RBs missing time in the first two weeks.
As a result, I have seen a lot of good teams and managers looking at 0-2. Even those at 1-1 or 2-0 are wondering how they’re gonna manage without Chubb or any of their other big stars.
I mean, I am in a 12-team, 33-man roster, deep dynasty league with a number of other guys in the industry, including well-respected Rotoworld alums Evan Silva, Graham Barfield and Rich Hribar, among many others. Anyways, point is I am the defending champion of this dynasty league and have won it two of the last three years and been in the finals in three of the last four seasons. It’s a very good team. A very good team that is currently winless and in second to last place, as Cooper Kupp, Travis Kelce (it’s a TE premium scoring league too) and Austin Ekeler are my core in this very deep league. I also have Jamaal Williams (who started for me last week in place of Ekeler. Slap forehead emoji) and Brandin Cooks, who you may think stinks, but I actually needed him last week in a league this insanely deep. Didn’t have him either. Sigh.
The point is… I am not alone.
And you know what?
I’m excited.
Because sometimes fantasy football takes more than it gives.
But not today.
Today, fantasy football has given us an opportunity.
A shot at greatness.
The chance to make history doesn’t come along every day.
And that’s what we have here, gang.
Anyone can win a season when they luck into Cam Akers off the scrap heap down the stretch last year. When they have the lowest points against the whole season. When they play the person who loses Jalen Hurts for the last two weeks of the season. Any manager can do that.
But the person who can win their league after losing Nick Chubb, their first-round pick, in Week 2? The person who can dig out of a 0-2 hole? That person?
That person is a legend.
That person will earn all the glory coming their way.
That person will get to fly that flag forever.
So I’ve done this before and I’m going to do it again. I want everyone that is 0-2 to come close. Everyone that lost Chubb to gather round. Everyone that is dealing with Kupp, JT, Ekeler, Aaron Jones, Dobbins and the 2 QB leaguers who lost Aaron Rodgers I want you to pay attention to what I am about to say.
Gather round here in the virtual locker room. Because (with sincere apologies to Al Pacino, Oliver Stone, screenwriter John Logan and, frankly, the entire cast and crew of “Any Given Sunday”) I am rolling up some sheets of papers with plays on them, occasionally slapping them in my hand, and addressing you.
I don’t know what to say, really. Three days to the biggest battle of our fake football lives. It all comes down to Sunday. Either we heal as a collection of statistics or we are going to crumble.
Inch by inch.
Decimal point by decimal point, ‘til we’re finished.
We are in hell right now, gentlemen and women.
Believe me, we can stay here and get the crap kicked out of us, whine about our fantasy studs going down... or we can fight our way back into the light.
We can climb out of hell.
One inch at a time.
Now, I can’t do it for you. I’m too old, I’m behind a computer screen. I look around and I see these player videos and team names and I think...
I mean...
I’ve made every wrong choice a middle-age man could make.
I had Dameon Pierce ranked high in the preseason. I had Kirk Cousins on the Hate List last week. And lately, I can’t even stand the tweets I read.
You know, when you get old in life, things get taken from you.
That’s, that’s part of life.
But you only learn that when you start losing stuff.
You find out that life is just a game of inches.
So is fantasy football.
Because in either game -- life or fantasy -- the margin for error is so small.
I mean, one half-step too late to the waiver wire, one week too early to drop someone, and you don’t quite make it.
One half-second too slow or too fast, and you don’t quite get it.
The inches we need are everywhere around us.
They are in every break of the game, every minute, every second.
On this team, we fight for that inch. On this team, we tear ourselves -- and everyone around us -- to pieces for that inch. We CLAW with our fingernails for that inch.
‘Cause we know when we add up all those inches, that’s going to make the freaking difference between WINNING and LOSING. Between LIVING and DYING.
I’ll tell you this: In any fight, it is the man or woman who is willing to die who is going to win that inch. The one who checks their phone at dinner. Who wakes up at 4 a.m. to make a free-agent claim so they don’t lose their waiver priority. Who works the trade talks until the wee hours, not caring about their mobile messaging limits or spending time with family. Who puts RotoPass.com on their list of dependents.
And I know if I am going to have any life anymore, it is because I am still willing to fight, and die for that inch because that is what living is. The 6 inches in front of your face, the screen that is omnipresent in your life.
Now, I can’t make you do it. You gotta look at the guys on your team. The future studs waiting to be picked up or traded for. Look into their eyes. Now I think you are going to see guys who will go that inch with you. Look in the mirror. You are going to see someone who will sacrifice for their team because they know, when it comes down to it, there is no other choice. What are you gonna do? Play fantasy hockey?
That’s a team, friends, and either we heal now, as a team, or we will die as individuals. That’s fantasy football, guys. That’s all it is.
Now, whattaya gonna do?
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 3:
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Denver
Am I recommending Tua because I am going to Parents Weekend this weekend at the University of Alabama where my kid is a freshman and I am trying to suck up to the locals while I am there? Yes. BUT! It’s also legit. Since the start of last season, Tua is averaging 296.5 passing yards in games in which he plays at least 90% of the snaps. He might eclipse those numbers this week even if he plays 9% of the snaps. Through two weeks, the Broncos are allowing passing touchdowns at the fifth-highest rate and they’ve surrendered the fourth-highest passer rating against. That’s despite playing Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Howell, not exactly future Hall of Famers. (Well, Garoppolo isn’t.) Add into it that Denver ranks 30th in pressure rate this season and this game’s Over/Under of 48.5 – second highest on the Week 3 slate - and I have Tua as a Top 6 quarterback. Roll Tide!
Kirk Cousins vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I don’t know if there’s anything to the rumors about Kirk Cousins getting traded to the New York Jets. What I do know is that Cousins seems like too nice of a guy to have the Curse of the New York Jets put upon him. But trading for Kirk Cousins in fantasy? I’m all for it. Through the first two weeks of the season, Minnesota leads the NFL with a 79% pass rate and Cousins has 40-plus attempts and 340 or more yards in each of his games. He also was on the Hate List last week so yeah, my bad on that. But I have learned my lesson. While the Vikings may not be winning games yet, Cousins is winning a lot of fantasy matchups. He should do the same again this week against a Chargers defense that has allowed 21-plus fantasy points to quarterbacks in each of their first two games. Also through the first two weeks, LAC is allowing a league-high 10.3 yards per pass attempt. (Isn’t Brandon Staley supposed to be a defensive coach?) Look for Cousins to put up big numbers again in Week 3 in a game with the highest Over/Under (54) on the schedule.
Brock Purdy vs. New York Giants
Last week, in arguably the worst game of his NFL career, Brock Purdy went 17-of-25 for 206 yards, no turnovers and a rushing score. Which means, even when Brock is bad, he’s still Purdy good. Okay, I’m sorry. It’s long past time to stop doing “Purdy” puns. He’s earned it with his play on the field. I’ll stop. I promise. Anyway... Purdy is averaging 19.2 PPG in his three-career home starts with multiple touchdowns in all three. At home, Purdy is Brock solid. San Francisco has scored 30-plus points in six of his seven career starts and the Niners have the third-highest implied team total this week. Yeah, the 49ers putting points on the board this week is essentially a stone-cold Brock. And how about this? Since the start of last season, the Giants are bottom-10 in YAC per reception allowed – not exactly a great stat for a team about to face Deebo Samuel. So, if you have quarterback concerns this week, don’t feel like you are between a Brock and a hard place. Start Purdy. He is a Top 12 quarterback for me. Also, unrelated, please follow me on TikBrock.
Also receiving votes: In the four games since Nathaniel Hackett was fired, Russell Wilson is averaging 22.0 PPG. (And in two games with Nathaniel Hackett, Aaron Rodgers is averaging 0.0 PPG. Makes you think.) Yes, sure, Wilson’s points were inflated by the Hail Mary TD pass from last week, but Wilson also had 56 rushing yards last week, compared to his average of 28 over his past seven games. In a game with the Broncos almost a touchdown underdog, I like him to have to throw early and often to keep up with Miami. ... I know, Kenny Pickett has not been impressive. Blame Canada. But no quarterbacks look great against San Francisco and Cleveland, and Pickett still threw for 222 yards against the Browns (without Diontae Johnson at his disposal) one week after Joe Burrow threw for just 82. I expect a big improvement this week from Pickett against a Vegas defense that, through the first two weeks, has allowed the second-highest passer rating and the second-highest rate of touchdown passes. … Remember the preseason controversy about Matthew Stafford supposedly not connecting with younger players? He seems to be connecting just fine with Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. Through two games, Stafford has a whopping 93 pass attempts and 300-plus passing yards in each game. This week, Stafford and his 20-something pals face a Bengals defense that, through the first two weeks, has the fourth-lowest pressure rate while teams facing Cincinnati have the third highest aDOT.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 3
Justin Fields at Kansas City
Welp, Justin Fields is challenging the notion that a quarterback with his running ability has a very high floor. Fields has less than 15 fantasy points in both of his games this season. Last week he had a career-low 3 rushing yards on just four attempts. FOUR. Just awful. When he is running, he’s running away from opposing defenders and it’s always behind the line of scrimmage. Fields has taken 10 sacks through two games. Last week, in Kansas City’s first game with Chris Jones back in uniform, the Chiefs had four sacks. So one of two things happens here. Either Fields is bad once again and throws even more coaches under the bus in his post-game press conference and I’m right having him on the Hate List. OR, he runs away from Chris Jones up the field and makes everyone forget about his comments to the press this week with a monster game and I look like an idiot for having him here, list like I did with Cousins last week. But, since I have a fair amount of Fields this year, it works for me to get him off the schnide. I am willing to take that hit to get back fantasy superstar Justin Fields. You’re welcome America. One other point. Yes, it’s only through two weeks, but Kansas City is also allowing passing touchdowns at the lowest rate in the NFL. So I hope I’m wrong but I’m worried Bears fans will have a third week of panicking about their quarterback. (Third week or third decade, whichever you prefer.)
Daniel Jones at San Francisco
Since the start of last season, only three quarterbacks have scored 18 or more fantasy points against the 49ers. Through two weeks, the 49ers rank fourth in pressure rate and they are also allowing the third-fewest yards per completion. And now the Giants don’t have Saquon Barkley for this game. Daniel Jones and the Giants finally put together a half of football in Week 2, but I think they’ll have to wait until Week 4 for a chance to do it again. Jones is outside my Top 18 at the position.
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Running Backs I Love in Week 3
Travis Etienne vs. Houston
Travis Etienne has handled 79% of Jacksonville’s running back touches so far this season and has a 76% snap rate. That’s an intensive rate. Really. “Travis Etienne” is even an anagram for “intensive rate.” [Head explodes] Sorry about exploding your brains everywhere. Anyway, in each of Etienne’s games this season, he has 25 routes run. Compare that to last season when he only had three such games all season. Considering the kind of usage Etienne is getting, I love him against a Houston defense that, through the first two weeks, has allowed four rushing scores to running backs (tied for the most). I love him even more armed with the knowledge that Etienne had 110-plus scrimmage yards in both games against Houston last season. I have Etienne as a Top 5 back in Week 3.
Kyren Williams at Cincinnati
Unfortunately, I don’t have any instructive fantasy anagrams for you with Kyren Williams, unless you think “wrinkly emails” is helpful. All I have are positive stats. Stats like: Kyren Williams had a 95% snap rate in Week 2. And: Kyren Williams has 11 red zone touches through two games – second-most among running backs. And also: Kyren Williams’ 13.5% target share is third on the Rams. Oh, and this: Through two games, Cincinnati has allowed the fifth-most rushing yards to running backs. Finally, there’s the fact that the Rams traded Cam Akers to the Vikings for (checks notes) three used game balls and a faded 2019 Vikings wild card victory t-shirt. All of that is why Kyren Williams is my RB 6 in Week 3. Oh, and speaking of emails, feel free to sign up for daily emails with news, analysis and tips from Fantasy Life by clicking here. I promise that none of the emails are wrinkly.
Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Atlanta
Following David Montgomery’s exit due to injury in Week 2, Jahmyr Gibbs played 71% of the snaps, including 100% on third and fourth down. He was also in on Detroit’s one snap inside the 10-yard line. Gibbs also had a team-high 26.5% target share last week and was targeted on 43% of his routes. With Detroit averaging 32.5 RB touches so far this season, Gibbs is in line for a heavy workload assuming Montgomery is indeed out. You’ll see more Craig Reynolds than you expect in this one, but Gibbs will be in line for his largest workload of the season. I have him as a Top 9 back. However, if Montgomery does play, Gibbs drops down to a Top 20 RB play for me, more of a RB2 type. Obviously, it would have been nice if David Montgomery had called me to tell me his status for Week 3 before I published this, but alas … sometimes players forget what’s most important.
Others receiving votes: Week 2 saw 86% of Kansas City’s running back carries go to Isiah Pacheco. With the Chiefs a 12.5-point favorite against the Bears, Pacheco should get opportunities to run clock. And those opportunities will be against a Bears defense that has allowed 20-plus fantasy points to a back in each of its first two games. … Raheem Mostert has a 73% snap rate this season and is averaging 15.5 touches per game. In his 25 career games with just 12 or more touches, he averages 14.4 PPG. There’s a good chance he bests that number facing a Denver defense that last week allowed 182 total yards to Washington backs. … As the old saying goes: “A rolling stone gathers no moss, but a savvy fantasy manager gathered Zack Moss from the waiver wire before Week 2 of the 2023 season.” Moss played 98% of snaps in Week 2 and, in his last five games dating back to last season, is averaging 19 touches per game. … Jaylen Warren doesn’t just look better than Najee Harris, he also has the second-most targets on the Steelers through two weeks, earning six targets in both Weeks 1 and 2. In Week 3, Warren faces a Raiders defense that has allowed the second-most running back receptions on the season.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 3
Dameon Pierce at Jacksonville
It’s baffling that Dameon Pierce has played just 47% of Houston’s offense snaps so far this season, considering the rest of the RB talent on the Texans depth chart. But, in fairness, he hasn’t exactly made the case for more playing time with a 2.7 YPC so far this season, along with just 2.2 yards per target. That’s not all on him – the Texans offensive line has been decimated by injury with 4 of 5 starters on the shelf. But regardless of who is to blame (No one, pipes up Howard Jones) I don’t expect anything to change this week against a Jacksonville defense that, through two weeks, has allowed the fourth-fewest rush yards to backs, and just 3.1 YPC to backs, as well. I have Pierce outside the Top 25 in Week 3.
Jerome Ford vs. Tennessee
I don’t have Jerome Ford on the Hate List because Kareem Hunt is in uniform. I have Jerome Ford on the Hate List because the Titans run D is in uniform. Ford won’t see a Nick Chubb-type workload once Hunt is up to speed, but he will be plenty fantasy relevant. Cleveland chose him over Hunt this offseason for a reason. But I wouldn’t even love a healthy Chubb this week against a Tennessee team that, so far this season, is allowing a league-low 2.6 YPC to running backs. In Week 1, Jamaal Williams finished as RB38 and in Week 2, Joshua Kelley came in at RB 51. And, since the start of last season, only two backs have games with 60-plus rushing yards against the Titans. I would actually try to buy low on Ford after this Sunday, but for Week 3, I have Ford outside my Top 24 running backs in Week 3.
Khalil Herbert at Kansas City
If you employed an All-Herberts draft strategy heading into this season, through two weeks it’s a mixed bag. Justin Herbert is QB3 overall, but Khalili Herbert is RB28 and has single digit carries in both games this season. Then there’s Lowell Herbert, a lineman who was a 20th Round pick of the Packers in 1954. Not sure what you were thinking drafting him, to be honest. But back to Khalil Herbert... he has played on only 37% of snaps when Chicago has been trailing by 7+ points this season and the Bears are a 12.5-point dog against the Chiefs. Plus, rookie Roschon Johnson is getting more usage in the pass game. Khalil Herbert is my Herbert2 this week – barely, just ahead of Lowell – but my RB 35.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 3
Puka Nacua at Cincinnati
No one in the history of the NFL had at least 10 receptions and 100 receiving yards in each of his first two career games. That is … no one until Puka Nacua came along. And, trust me, it is by no means a fluke. I am all in on Puka. In fact, I’m even wearing a bunch of puka necklaces this very moment, despite the fact that I was not in a college fraternity in the early 2000s. Puka leads all players with 35 targets through two weeks and he has been targeted on 40% of his routes. Look for Puka to keep rolling in Week 3 against a Bengals defense that last week allowed Ravens receivers to catch 83% of their targets. My Little Puka Kupp is my WR 9 this week.
A.J. Brown at Tampa Bay
A.J. Brown was seen on camera arguing with Jalen Hurts in the second half of Philadelphia’s Week 2 win, a game in which Brown had just 4 catches for 29 yards. I get his frustration. I’m also getting him in my lineups in Week 3 because, more often than not in these situations, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. The Eagles need to keep Brown happy and there should be plenty of smiles to be had against a Bucs defense that, through two games, is allowing 15 yards per reception to wide receivers (5th most) and has seen a receiver go for 100-plus yards against them in each of their first two games. Also, there should be some positive regression coming for Brown even if you don’t buy the squeaky wheel narrative. He actually leads the Eagles in target share (31%) so far this season. I think the only yelling Brown and Hurts might do in Week 3 will be while celebrating in the end zone.
Read more about A.J. Brown’s expected positive regression in Denny Carter’s Regression Files for Week 3.
Amari Cooper vs. Tennessee
Through two weeks, Tennessee has allowed the second-most receptions and third-most yards to wide receivers. The Titans have also surrendered 16 or more fantasy points to a receiver in each of their games. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper is leading the Browns with a 24.6% target share. Unfortunately, it’s 2023 Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball and not 2020 Deshaun Watson. But I think Cooper and the Titans secondary are enough to overcome even that. Assuming health, give me Cooper as a Top 20 play this week.
Evan Engram vs. Houston
Last week, the Texans allowed 80 yards and a score to Indianapolis tight ends. And, through two weeks, the Texans have allowed the most YAC per reception to tight ends. That’s good news for Evan Engram, whose aDOT is just 4.1 yards. Even better news: Engram has at least five catches in both games this season and has run the second-most routes on the team. He’s a Top 6 TE for me in Week 3.
Others receiving votes: Mike Williams led the Chargers with 13 targets in Week 2 and has a 25.7% target share through two games. Now, he faces a Vikings defense that, since the start of last season, has allowed the second-most yards to wide receivers. … George Pickens led the Steelers last week with a 34.5% target share. Bet on him to have a big Sunday night in Vegas versus a Raiders defense that has allowed a league-high 84% catch rate to wide receivers. … The Chargers have allowed a league-high 12 deep receptions in their first two games, while Jordan Addison leads Minnesota with a 15.5 aDOT and has scored on a deep reception in each of his first two NFL games. … I told you all offseason that Tank Dell was going to be a thing, and that was before Noah Brown’s injury opened up even more targets for the rookie. Last week, Dell had a team-high 10 targets. He also played on 78% of snaps, up from 45% in Week 1. … If you wanted to create a person in a lab who was destined to be a fantasy streaming option at tight end, you would name him Jake Ferguson. So, I am pleased to announce that Cowboys TE Jake Ferguson is indeed worthy of streaming at the tight end position. Through two weeks, Ferguson leads all tight ends with seven red zone targets while, over the same timeframe, Arizona has allowed the third-most yards to tight ends. … Who needs Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski when you have Baker Mayfield and Cade Otton, amiright? Okay, perhaps I am wrong. But Otton has caught eight of his nine targets so far this season. And his Week 3 opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, has allowed the most receptions to tight ends through two weeks. The Eagles have also given up a touchdown to a tight end in both of their games.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 3
DeAndre Hopkins at Cleveland
One of my favorite players in the NFL but this is likely a tough week for him. Cleveland is allowing a catch rate of just 41% to wide receivers through their first two games, second-best in the league. DeAndre Hopkins will get the worst of the Cleveland matchup, too, drawing the dreaded Denzel Ward shadow. And to make matters worse, Hopkins is not 100% healthy. Last week he was listed as questionable and played just 58% of snaps.
Marquise Brown vs. Dallas
Maybe Hollywood Brown is supporting his fellow Hollywood colleagues by going on strike? Because through two games, he’s averaging a career-low 9.1 yards per reception. Now he gets a Dallas defense that hasn’t allowed a single completion of 15-plus air yards all season. Yes, you read that right. In fact, through two weeks, Garrett Wilson is the only WR with more than 25 receiving yards against the Cowboys. I have Brown outside my Top 35 wide receivers.
Kyle Pitts at Detroit
If Nick Chubb’s injury didn’t convince you that the Fantasy Gods hate us, then Kyle Pitts’ entire career should. Pitts now has single-digit fantasy points in 66% of his career games. In 29 career games, he has just three touchdowns. He has been targeted on just 14.5% of his routes this season, the SIXTH-highest rate on the Falcons and, through two games, has eight targets total. I’m going to go throw up now. But first, let me put Pitts outside my Top 12 tight ends for Week 3.
Pat Freiermuth at Las Vegas
I guess Kyle Pitts managers can console themselves by knowing that they at least didn’t draft Pat Freiermuth? On the season, Freiermuth has just five yards on five targets. His 6.8% target is tied for sixth on the Steelers. And he’s tied for 21st among tight ends in routes run. I’m having him run a route directly out of my lineups until things improve. Freiermuth is way down at TE 17 in Week 3.
Matthew Berry – The Talented Mr. Roto – would very much like the Tide to Roll this weekend.
For more of my thoughts on players, strategy, theory and nonsense, please check out Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry on Peacock live every weekday at noon ET.
