Believe me, I get it.
I’m right there with you.
I mean that, by the way. Whatever you’re going through, I am too. I’m in 25 leagues this year, not counting best ball, which is way too many. And because you can draft a Guillotine League any week you want (all you need is one more league member than weeks left in the NFL season), I have more drafts scheduled.
So yeah, that many leagues. I promise you, if it happened to you in Week 1, it happened to at least one of my teams. Did you get stuck “playing” Christian McCaffrey and taking the zero because everyone else on your team has played and is locked? Been there. Did you discover you had Jordan Mason sitting at the end of your bench, so you slapped him in your lineup and got a huge come-from-behind victory on Monday night? Yep, did that too.
Did your elite TE (Sam LaPorta, Travis Kelce, Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, seriously any of them) fail you and cause you to lose? What about one of your key wide receivers? Drake London, Marvin Harrison Jr., Brandon Aiyuk, DK Metcalf, Chris Olave, Ja’Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St Brown, Michael Pittman, Terry McLaurin or Amari Cooper were among the many big name wide receivers with very little production. Or worse, you just lost Puka Nacua for a while.
Maybe you’re excited after getting production from some mid- to late-round running backs like Rhamondre Stevenson, Jerome Ford or J.K. Dobbins … hell even Alexander Mattison was productive. So was Tank Bigsby. Did you lose because your stars didn’t show up? Or because crappy players balled out for your opponent. Been there, done that, got the t-shirt.
Doesn’t matter. Even if it did happen.
You know why?
Because it was Week 1. We don’t know anything yet. You think you know something, but you don’t. One week, one game, so much will change. I made very few waiver pickups this week. Partly because I was busy and, you know, 25 teams. But also because I still like my rosters and there wasn’t a lot of fat to cut after just one week.
I’m sure there are absolutely worse things in the world than dropping the late-round sleeper you drafted only to see that player get picked up and go on to have a monster year for another team in your league, I just can’t think of many.
In Week 1 of 2023, rookie RB De’Von Achane was a healthy scratch. Rachaad White had just a 6% target share and scored under 7.0 points. Tank Dell (after a preseason of me touting him no less) played just 46% of snaps and scored 6.4 points.
Oh yeah, in Week 1 of 2023, Ja’Marr Chase also only had 39 yards in a blowout loss to Cleveland. That same week, in his Bears debut, DJ Moore had two catches for just 25 yards and finished the week as WR74. Jake Ferguson went 2-for-11 and was TE37.
Of course, that was just Week 1. De’Von Achane would go on to finish the season as RB5 in points per game. Starting in Week 2, Rachaad White was the ninth-best RB in fantasy, driven in part by him having the third-most receiving yards among RBs. DJ Moore would finish with 1,364 receiving yards and end the season as WR6. After Week 1, over the next nine games until his season-ending injury, Tank Dell would average 17.6 fantasy points per game and be a top 10 WR. Over that same time frame, before Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury, Ja’Marr Chase would average 20.1 PPG. And Jake Ferguson was the ninth-best TE in fantasy football from Week 2 on.
Meanwhile, while those eventual big-name players were non-factors in Week 1 a year ago, many players crushed and inspired a frenzy on the waiver wire -- like Mac Jones, who was QB2 that week, scoring 24.1 fantasy points. Chargers RB Joshua Kelley who rumbled for 91 yards and score on just 13 carries and finished as RB12 in Week 1. Tony Pollard scored two TDs, had 22.2 fantasy points and was RB5 in Week 1. Darnell Mooney scored 15.3 fantasy points and finished as a top 20 WR. And of course TE Hayden Hurst scored 15.1 fantasy points and finished Week 1 as the TE2 in fantasy football.
Ultimately, that success was short lived. Mac Jones would go on to score fewer than 14 points in nine of the next 10 games before getting replaced by Bailey Zappe in Week 13. Despite starting the next three games in place of the injured Austin Ekeler and appearing in all 17 games, Joshua Kelley would finish as RB64 on the season, averaging 4.4 points per game. Pollard would go on to score only four more touchdowns over the following 16 games and from Week 2 on, he was the RB24 in PPG. And Mooney had only one more game with double-digit fantasy points the rest of the season and finished as the WR86 in PPG.
Yeah.
It’s one week.
And more importantly, it’s the first week.
I’m not saying ignore everything in Week 1. There are some things that happened that are definitely signs. I mean last year in Week 1, fifth-round rookie Puka Nacua had 10 catches for 119 yards on 15 targets and was a top 10 WR. He would go on to break the NFL record for receptions and receiving yards by a rookie. Mike Evans, left for dead by many drafters that preseason, scored a TD against the Vikings. He would go on to score 12 more times, reaching 13 touchdowns for the third time in the past four seasons. It was also his 10th consecutive season with 1,000+ receiving yards. And Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa had more passing yards in Week 1 than everyone else, throwing for 466 yards. He would go on to lead the league in passing, finishing with 4,624 yards.
So yeah, some of the performances we saw in Week 1 will be predictive for the season. If you read/watched/listened to me at all during the preseason you know I believe Rashee Rice is going to have an incredible year. Week 1 obviously re-enforced that idea. I think Jameson Williams’ usage and snap share are indicative of a much larger and fantasy-friendly role this season. And while I’m not expecting over 33 touches for 178 total yards every week, nothing about Joe Mixon’s performance in Week 1 screams fluke.
So, I’m not telling you to ignore every Week 1 performance. But what I am telling you is to not overreact. Not to freak out. Not to do something rash that you’ll regret. We have a lot of football left to play. I mean, A LOT. I don’t think you’ll have a true sense of what your team is this year until we’ve played four weeks. THEN you can start freaking out or celebrating a little bit, because there will be a bit of a sample size.
Until then, don’t go chasing this year’s versions of Joshua Kelley and Hayden Hurst. Don’t panic on your big-name stars who flopped and instead, let’s just focus on Week 2. You got a game to win.
Here we go.
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Thanks, as always, to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column. Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 2
Jayden Daniels vs. New York Giants
Future Super Bowl winning quarterback and future Hall of Famer Jayden Daniels isn’t just on this week’s Love List because he’s the QB of my favorite team. No, he’s here because while, NFL wise, he looked shaky in his debut, fantasy wise he was beautiful. Daniels had 16 carries in Week 1, tied with Lamar Jackson for most among quarterbacks and tied for the 11th-most among all players. Four of his 16 carries went for 10-plus yards (tied for second-most among all players in Week 1) and he was also Washington’s go-to player in the red zone, handling 50% of the Commanders’ red zone rushes in Week 1 and 75% of their goal-line rushes. So the floor is there and it’s very high. Like, you have to climb steps just to get on Jayden Daniels’ floor. And, thanks to his Week 2 opponent, the woeful New York Giants, there is also a high, lofty ceiling. In Week 1, the Giants allowed the fifth-highest passer rating and I think the Giants will struggle to contain Jayden Daniels even more than Jayden Daniels’ helmet struggles to contain Jayden Daniels. He’s a top 5 quarterback for me in Week 2.
Anthony Richardson at Green Bay
Anthony Richardson has now played three full games in his NFL career and he has 20-plus fantasy points in every one of them. (Checks notes). Yeah, that’s pretty good. That includes 40-plus rushing yards and a rushing score in each. In Week 1, he handled 33% of the Colts’ red zone rushes and 25% of their goal line carries. He also posted a 16.4 aDOT in Week 1, with deep passes accounting for 32% of his pass attempts. So the takeaway is that Anthony Richardson is either going to run you over, or throw deep on you. It’s like he was created in a lab to produce fantasy points. I think he’ll produce plenty in Week 2 against a Packers defense that surrendered two touchdowns on deep passes in their opener and is starting Malik Willis, meaning I believe the Colts will get the ball back often and very likely be in good field position when they do. Richardson is my QB6.
Justin Fields at Denver
So yeah, I’m high on quarterbacks who can run this week. And life. I’m high on life. And occasionally bacon. But it’s mostly running QBs. Except Malik Willis. Anyways, back to Fields. In Week 1, Justin Fields ran the ball 14 times, including handling 44% of Pittsburgh’s red zone carries. That matters because in Fields’ 17 career games with 10-plus rushes, he averages 21.5 PPG. Considering the Broncos gave up a 34-yard rushing score to Geno Smith in Week 1, I see Fields having room to run in this matchup. I have Fields ranked as my QB9 for Week 2. By the way, definitely monitor Pittsburgh’s quarterback situation leading up to kickoff in case Russell Wilson is in uniform. Actually, Russell Wilson will wear his uniform even if he’s inactive again because he’s weird. So I should instead say: monitor the situation in case Russell Wilson ends up starting.
Others receiving votes: A big reason Arizona blew a 14-point lead against the Bills in the opener was its pass defense. The Cardinals allowed 10.1 yards per attempt and the third-highest passer rating in Week 1. That’s good news for Matthew Stafford in a game that has one of the highest game totals in Week 2 at 47.5. … Last season in a playoff loss at Detroit, Baker Mayfield threw for 349 yards and three touchdowns. Now he heads to Detroit again with the Lions coming off a game in which they allowed the second-most passing yards in Week 1. Bucs-Lions also has the highest game total of the week at 51.5. By the way, Detroit is only a 2-hour, 40-minute drive from Cleveland. I mention that in case any Browns fans want to make the trip up to beg Baker Mayfield to come back to Cleveland with them. … In Week 1, Washington allowed 29.7 fantasy points to Baker Mayfield and – dating back to last season – eight of the last nine quarterbacks to face Washington have now scored at least 17.5 fantasy points. If there’s ever going to be a week for Daniel Jones to turn things around, it’s this week.
RELATED: Matthew Berry’s positional rankings for Week 2
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 2
Kirk Cousins at Philadelphia
Week 1 Kirk Cousins looked nothing like the Kirk Cousins we saw from Weeks 1-8 last season. Maybe it’s lingering injury issues, maybe it’s not being comfortable in the offense yet, maybe it was T.J. Watt, maybe it was having to use a silent count at home because of all the Steelers fans that invaded Atlanta, maybe it was all of those reasons. But it was the worst performance by a Captain Kirk I’ve seen since William Shatner read “Rocket Man.” And forget stats… he just looked… bad. No movement, a lot of dink and dunk, footwork was terrible… blah. I don’t want to start him until he looks right, period. But especially this week where he heads on the road to play the Eagles, which held Jordan Love to a completion percentage of just 50% in Week 1. The game will also be on Monday Night Football, a platform which has always given Cousins trouble. Get this: over Cousins’ last seven Monday night games, he’s averaged just 13.2 PPG. There’s a lot of season left, but I need to see something from Cousins and the Falcons’ passing game before I feel comfortable starting him. I have him way down at QB21 in Week 2.
Trevor Lawrence vs. Cleveland
One spot ahead of Cousins, I have Trevor Lawrence ranked QB20. Part of the reason is a tough matchup. Last week against Dallas, Cleveland allowed just 5.6 yards per pass attempt and held Dak Prescott to a completion percentage under 60%. But it’s also usage that has me down on Lawrence. Jacksonville ranked 26th in pass rate in Week 1. Cleveland’s offense is in such disarray that I don’t believe they’ll score that much during a 1 p.m. ET game in the Jacksonville heat, which means the Jags aren’t going to have do much offensively to win this game. You’ll see a healthy dose of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby, so yeah, in a game with a game total of just 41.5, there are not many paths to a productive fantasy day for Lawrence in Week 2.
Running Backs I Love in Week 2
Kyren Williams at Arizona
In Week 1, Kyren Williams had a 91% snap rate and took 21-of-23 RB touches for the Rams. (Two RB touches went to Ronnie Rivers and then Blake Corum and you were tied for third most with zero.) It’s hard to see Sean McVay not utilizing Williams just as much in this game considering Williams’ track record against the Cardinals. Last season he averaged 30.1 PPG against them and had 20-plus touches and 150-plus scrimmage yards in both contests. The Rams have a top 10 implied team total this week, so I’m looking for Williams to have yet another big game against an Arizona team that just gave up 130 rushing yards on the ground last week. He’s my RB3 for Week 2.
Isiah Pacheco vs. Cincinnati
Including the playoffs, without Jerrick McKinnon around, Isiah Pacheco has now scored in each of his past eight games. Pacheco’s 80% snap rate in the opener was higher than all but one of his games in 2023, and he also got 85% of KC’s RB touches in Week 1. Pacheco is the clear lead back in what may be the NFL’s best offense. That alone gets you Love List consideration, but Pacheco also has a great matchup in Week 2. In a game in which the Chiefs have one of the highest implied team totals of the week, Pacheco faces a Cincinnati defense that just gave up 126 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to Rhamondre Stevenson. And that was with the Bengals not having to worry about Jacoby Brissett passing, well, at all. But when you’ve got to figure out how to defend Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy, Travis Kelce and whoever else Patrick Mahomes wants to underhand throw to, Pacheco is going to have a lot of light boxes to run through. Pacheco is my RB8.
Josh Jacobs vs. Indianapolis
Malik Willis has started three games before in his NFL career and averaged 16.3 passing attempts in those contests. So this is not going to be a pass-happy Packers attack on Sunday. Willis is not going to bring back the Brett Favre gunslinger days. No, Willis is more likely to evoke the Arnie Herber-era Packers. (You know, Green Bay’s QB in the 1930s and ‘40s? No? Hey, he once threw for 1,239 yards in an entire season! Put some respect on his name!) Anyway, on Sunday the Green Bay offense will revolve around not Malik Willis Josh Jacobs and probably some Emmanuel Wilson. In the opener, Jacobs ranked top 10 among backs in snap rate, saw 75% of Green Bay’s RB touches and handled a full 100% of their red zone rushes. This week, he gets a Colts defense that just gave up 178 total yards and a touchdown to Joe Mixon.
Others receiving votes: While Jayden Daniels led Washington in carries in Week 1, Brian Robinson got 86% of the team’s running back carries and his 16.7% target share was tied for highest on the team. … The Jets just gave up 147 rushing yards to Jordan Mason and now have to get ready for Tony Pollard on a short week. In Tennessee’s opener, Pollard had 19 touches and a 14.8% target share. … In Week 1, J.K. Dobbins had 52% of the Chargers’ running back carries. Fifty-two percent isn’t a huge share unless we’re talking about presidential elections (hashtag: topical!). But what’s more important is that, according to NexGenStats, Edwards had a 50% success rate on his carries compared to just 18% for Gus Edwards. Dobbins is likely to continue to earn more work in this offense, and his 12% target share in Week 1 is even more reason to be optimistic about his fantasy potential. Look for Dobbins to have another productive day this week against a Carolina defense that gave up 132 rushing yards and two scores to running backs in their opener. … The Raiders are a 8.5-point underdog to the Ravens, so they’ll likely end up being pass heavy in Week 2. That means Alexander Mattison, who played on 73% of Vegas’ pass plays in Week 1 and saw a 18.8% target share, is the Raiders back you want, er, the Raiders back you can tolerate more. Mattison also out-snapped Zamir White, 59% to 39%.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 2
Ezekiel Elliott vs. New Orleans
I’ll admit, it felt weird putting New England Patriots running back Ezekiel Elliott on the Hate List last season. It feels much better to put Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott on the Hate List. Nature is healing. In Week 1, Elliott barely out-touched Rico Dowdle (12-9) and played just three more snaps than him. Elliott also had a low target share (6.5%) and he played on only 43% of third downs. Volume matters more than most for Zeke. Get this: since the start of the 2022 season, Elliott has only two games in which he’s scored 12-plus fantasy points while getting fewer than 15 touches. Add to it that the Saints held Panthers backs to 2.9 YPC last week, and I have Elliott outside my top 30 backs for Week 2.
Javonte Williams vs. Pittsburgh
In Denver’s opener, Javonte Williams got only 32% of the Broncos’ rush attempts. He also wasn’t utilized much in the passing game, seeing a target share of just 4.8% compared to 12% for Jaleel McLaughlin. Now, Williams faces a tough matchup against a Steelers defense in a game in which the Broncos are tied for the second-lowest implied team total of the week. Williams is No. 33 on the roster and No. 33 for me at the running back position in Week 2.
Zamir White at Baltimore
The case for Alexander Mattison is essentially the case against Zamir White. Vegas will likely be trailing against Baltimore, and White played on just 24% of the Raiders’ pass plays in Week 1, compared to 73% for Mattison. The Raiders also have one of the lowest implied team totals in Week 2. I mean, could the Raiders control play versus the Ravens, put up a lot of points, and see White get in the end zone? Sure. After all, anything can happen in Vegas! Oh, wait … this game’s in Baltimore? No, definitely not then. White is my RB34.
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Pass Catchers I Love in Week 2
Rashee Rice vs. Cincinnati
Rashee Rice had a team-high 33% target share in Week 1 on the way to 17.3 fantasy points, meaning he scored just two less points than all Bengals WRs combined in Week 1. Uh, rather, it means he picked up right where he left off in 2023. Dating back to Week 12 of last season, Rice is WR7 in PPG (18.3). In five of his past seven games, he has seven-plus receptions, as well as a target share of 25% in six of his past seven. Rice showed last week that all you have to do is get the ball in his hands and he’ll take it from there, averaging 10.4 YAC per reception. So put Rice in your WR1 spot and let him take it from there. He’s a top 10 wide receiver for me.
Deebo Samuel at Minnesota
In San Francisco’s Week 1 win on Monday Night Football, Deebo Samuel saw a team-high 31% target share AND he got 21% of San Francisco’s rushing attempts, including three in the red zone and one at the goal line. With an 18.7-point performance, Samuel now has 18-plus fantasy points in six of his last eight games. All of that says Deebo is a WR1 in fantasy … with one caveat. The 49ers may just take him away from us for no reason. Because early evidence suggests the goal of the 2024 49ers might just be to destroy our fantasy seasons. Think about it. They spent all fantasy draft season dragging out the Brandon Aiyuk situation, leaving us clueless on where to take Aiyuk (and the likes of George Pickens), and then Week 1 rolled around and – on a Monday night, no less! – the Niners made fantasy’s consensus 1.1 pick in drafts inactive seemingly out of nowhere. Do the 49ers hate us? I think so, yes. But do I still love Deebo Samuel this week? Also yes.
Chris Godwin at Detroit
Chris Godwin opened the season by leading the Bucs in target share (26.7%) and catching all eight of his targets. Not too shabby. This week he gets a Detroit team that allowed the most fantasy points to wide receivers in Week 1, as well as the most catches and third-most yards to the slot. Considering Godwin plays the slot(s) better than a grandmother on a bus trip to Atlantic City, I consider this a great Week 2 matchup for him. Godwin is my WR15.
Mark Andrews vs. Las Vegas
Isaiah Likely finished Week 1 as TE1, while Mark Andrews came in at TE27. But I’m nowhere near ready to announce Likely as Baltimore’s new TE1. Andrews faced a ton of double coverage against the Chiefs and he has struggled against Steve Spagnuolo defenses in the past. At the same time, he played on 76% of pass plays in Week 1 and ran more routes than Likely. Look for the Ravens to get him more involved this week, especially against a Raiders defense that opened the season by allowing a 75% catch rate to tight ends, as well as 15.3 yards per reception to the position. Will a big game from him in Week 2 be enough to save me from what he did to me in Week 1? No. I’ll always be bitter. But either way, Andrews is my TE4 in a bounce-back Week 2.
Others receiving votes: Throughout his young NFL career, DeVonta Smith has been far more efficient playing out of the slot. Well, I’ve got good news. In Week 1, Smith had a 27.6% target share and five of his eight targets came out of the slot. … Rome Odunze has an MCL sprain and Keenan Allen is dealing with a heel injury. Meanwhile, DJ Moore led all Bears wide receivers in snaps and routes run in Week 1. He’s the Bears receiver you want right now while the passing game gets going. And it may get going quickly on Sunday against a Texans team that in Week 1 gave up the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … I am not writing this to blaspheme the Sun God; I am merely sharing facts. In Week 1, Jameson Williams led the Lions with a 32% target share. He also had a snap rate of 85%, well above his previous career high of 69%. And he posted an aDOT of 14.1, as well, with four of his nine targets coming on deep balls. I’m not saying the Jameson God > Sun God. I’m just saying the Fantasy Gods have already blessed us with Jameson Williams as a WR2 or FLEX play. … Despite getting fewer snaps than Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey still had a team-high 28% target share, as well as 40% of his team’s red zone targets. … With Puka Nacua out, Demarcus Robinson is who you want as his replacement. Even with Nacua starting the game, Robinson still saw a 92% snap rate thanks to the Rams using 11 personnel on 100% of their Week 1 snaps. Robinson finished with seven targets, tied for second on the team behind my little Cooper Kupp (who had approximately 1,000). And, get this: over Robinson’s last five full games of 2023, he averaged 15.4 PPG. … Let’s continue the Robinson section of the column by talking some Wan’Dale Robinson. He led the Giants with a 31.6% target share in Week 1 and also got 75% of their red zone targets. (No really, the Giants reached the red zone. There’s film of it and everything.) This week (Wan’Dale) Robinson is facing a Washington team that allowed the second-most yards to the slot in Week 1. … Puka Nacua’s absence opens up a 29% target share and some of that is sure to go the way of Colby Parkinson. In Week 1, Parkinson led all tight ends in routes run and had an 88% snap rate. … In Week 1, Dallas allowed the second-most yards to tight ends and, with Foster Moreau in concussion protocol, Juwan Johnson is in line to get extra work. Johnson has now also scored in four of his past five games.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 2
George Pickens at Denver
Again, Justin Fields is on the Love List in Week 2 for his running ability, not because I see him stretching the field repeatedly with his arm. In Week 1, Fields ranked 27th in aDOT (5.6). That’s bad news for a deep threat like George Pickens. Worse news is that Pickens is likely to get the Patrick Surtain II shadow on Sunday, one week after Surtain helped limit DK Metcalf to just 29 yards on three catches. This game has the lowest game total in Week 2 at 36.5. I have Pickens slightly under that number at WR35.
Christian Kirk vs. Cleveland
Since the start of last season, Cleveland is allowing the fourth-fewest yards per game to the slot. In Week 1, the Browns allowed the fifth-lowest catch rate to the slot. So they are a bad matchup for even peak Christian Kirk. But we barely even got a peek at Christian Kirk in Week 1. His 70% snap rate was third among Jacksonville receivers, behind new acquisition Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. If that’s not bad enough, no Jaguars player saw more than four targets in Week 1 as the Jags ranked 26th in pass rate for the week. I have Kirk way down at WR42 in Week 2.
Courtland Sutton vs. Pittsburgh
In what absolutely no one is calling the “Russell Wilson revenge game” the Steelers travel to Denver so that Wilson will likely dress on the sideline in full uniform while knowing he is almost assuredly not going to play. That means Wilson will get another good look at his Steelers defense, which totally controlled the Falcons passing game in Week 1, limiting them to the sixth-fewest wide receiver yards on the week. That included Joey Porter, Jr. holding Drake London to just two catches for 15 yards. This week, Sutton will get the bulk of Porter’s attention and Denver is tied for the second-lowest implied team total this week, so it’s hard to see this being a Courtland Sutton breakout game. Don’t forget: over Sutton’s last 21 games played, he has only broken 66 receiving yards four times. Or, if you’re a Broncos fan, maybe try to forget.
Christian Watson vs. Indianapolis
Malik Willis has attempted 15 deep passes in his career and completed just two of them. Reminder: a deep pass is considered to be one that travels at least 15 yards in the air. That means NASA has a far better success rate getting a manned spacecraft into orbit and back to the ground safely than Malik Willis does completing a football to a teammate 15 yards away. Something to consider. Especially if you’re considering starting Christian Watson in Week 2. Even with Jordan Love under center last week, Watson’s target share was third on the team at 15.6%. It’s hard to see things getting much better with QB2 Willis, who for his career has a passer rating of 48.7 and zero touchdown passes. I have Watson at WR48 this week.
