The truth is I never know.
Been doing this column every week of the football season and for many years, during baseball as well, for over 20 years. And I never ever know.
There are times when I write an open and I’m so proud of it. “Man are they gonna love this!” I think to myself. And then it comes out and it’s like “Eh, that was alright.”
There are other times when I have written something quickly or that I am highly critical of. Something that I don’t think I totally nailed and I see a zillion flaws with, but I run out of time, so I have to send it into the world even though it’s not good at all to me and people are like: “That’s your best column yet!” or “I loved this one!!”
The only thing I’ve learned is that I’ve learned nothing. I really have absolutely no idea. When people see me out and about and come up to me, invariably the column will come up and they’ll say some version of, “You know which one I loved?” And I literally have no idea which one they’re about to say.
It’s all over the place and I’ve heard a wide, wide variety of columns that people have loved. When I threw out the idea of cutting the open or at least cutting back on it, people tweeted, texted, DMed and emailed me imploring me not to do so, mentioning yet more columns that stayed with them over the years.
If there’s one constant, however, it’s that no one EVER mentions the Springsteen one.
Ha!
So a long time ago, just prior to the fantasy playoffs, I spent two days – literally two days – working on a column that equated the fantasy playoffs to a Bruce Springsteen song. And I LOVED IT. You have no idea. I was so proud of this thing. It was so hard to do. It’s inside baseball a bit, but writing about writing is really hard, I think. Especially if the writing you are writing about is really really good writing and you’re trying not to pale in comparison. But you also want to elevate the writing you are writing about to show just how good it is. It’s all very meta and thinky but the point is… I had this idea that I thought was really original. I spent a long time working on it. I was really happy with the end result and then… NOTHING. Not a peep. Just crickets. “Meh” said the people. Whatevs.
WELL.
One of the things that the whole “open or no open” conversation did for me was open up possibilities as to what I can or can’t do with the open. And this week, I want to bring that one back. I went back and re-read it this week and I still think it’s terrific. It was hilarious going back and reading the old names in the open. (Knowshon Moreno! Cecil Shorts! Giants RB David Wilson! Bryce Brown! Carson Palmer!). It meandered a bit and I’ve tightened that up and added in relevant names to this week. I re-wrote a few things as well, but at its core it’s still the same column I wrote a while back.
You might not like it. If history is any indication, you definitely won’t. I don’t care. This one is for me. I loved this open and I want it to have another day in the sun, dammit. So here you go. Originally appearing on December 13, 2012, here’s one of my favorite “from the vault tracks” if you will.
******
It’s as good advice for the fantasy playoffs as there is.
And it comes from an unlikely source.
Especially since it was never intended for that.
Words are important. That’s not the advice, by the way. We’ll get to that in a bit. But words are important. Every single one of them. When I write, I agonize over every single word choice and placement.
Words matter. And they are hard.
As one of my favorite authors, Douglas Adams, used to say, “Writing is easy. You only need to stare at a piece of blank paper until your forehead bleeds.”
This is not a column complaining about how difficult it is to write or woe is me or anything, but I point out the challenge in writing for this one reason: If it’s hard to write (and it is), imagine having to write something and setting it to music.
I’ve talked before about being a big fan of Bruce Springsteen. He’s a great writer, of course. Musically and lyrically, he evokes strong emotions and imagery set to pure unadulterated rock ‘n’ roll.
And in 1987, after the worldwide success of “Born in the U.S.A.,” The Boss released an album called “Tunnel of Love,” an album that was, as his official website terms it, a collection of songs exploring “an inner life and unresolved feelings.” A brave, if very unexpected follow-up to the massive success of “Born in the U.S.A.” At the time it was met with less than the typical enthusiastic response that new Springsteen music typically gets.
Anyways, among the songs is the title track, “Tunnel of Love.” Music is a personal thing, of course, and if I am being honest, it’s not even my favorite Springsteen song (obvious, but I’m still a sucker for “Badlands”), but it is in my top 10.
And more importantly, it is, without a doubt, one of the best songs ever written in terms of imagery and lyrics. I’d like to encourage you to take a moment now and listen/watch the song here. The video isn’t all that great to be honest. But if you watch it, watch it with closed captioning so you can see the lyrics. Or just listen to wherever you listen to music. Just listen to it – it’ll take three minutes – before continuing. I’m not going anywhere and trust me, you’ll enjoy. Both the song and the column a lot more.
Now, a “tunnel of love,” is a ride usually found in lower-rent amusement parks and carnivals, in which a couple would sit in a pretend boat that would be moved through a dark tunnel. It would go slow (romantic) or fast (scary) and either way, the unspoken understanding was that you and your date would be pulled closer together, either kissing in the romantic darkness or holding onto each other out of fear.
And Springsteen uses the story of a couple taking this ride as a metaphor for marriage and all the inherent challenges within on this twisty ride in the dark they are about to take.
It’s nothing short of brilliant. Not just for its imagery, but its phrasing.
The song starts:
Fat man sitting on a little stool
Takes the money from my hand while his eyes take a walk all over you
Hands me the ticket smiles and whispers good luck
Cuddle up angel cuddle up my little dove
We’ll ride down baby into this tunnel of love
I can just see the ticket taker, creepily checking out the girl, awkwardly offering encouragement where no interaction is wanted. The uncomfortable feeling they get as they see and hear this. And what was expected to be a fun ride for just the two of them already has someone intruding into their little world. Bruce tells her to ignore, to cuddle close, as they start this journey together, just the two of them, into the unknown.
The song continues.
I can feel the soft silk of your blouse
And them soft thrills in our little fun house
Then the lights go out and it’s just the three of us
You me and all that stuff we’re so scared of
Gotta ride down baby into this tunnel of love
Friends and family, co-workers and parents all are there at the start, wishing you well at the wedding, and everyone is all dressed up. Soft silk blouse and fun thrills. But just like in the ride, where it is dark and curvy, and if you’ve never ridden it before, you have no idea what is coming next, so too is marriage a largely blind trip with no clear path. A journey that, when the lights go out, all that’s left is “just the three of us - you me and all that stuff we’re so scared of.”
There is something so beautiful about that phrase, simple and amazingly descriptive. An entire lifetime of hope and fear, excitement and nervousness wrapped up in 15 words.
It is awe-inspiring, humbling and, to be honest, a little depressing knowing that I will never write something that good.
The song continues.
There’s a crazy mirror showing us both in 5-D
I’m laughing at you you’re laughing at me
There’s a room of shadows that gets so dark brother
It’s easy for two people to lose each other in this tunnel of love
Like any relationship, the ride can go from great moments -- laughing at you, you’re laughing at me -- to dark and tough moments where a couple can pull away: “It’s easy for two people to lose each other.”
Like many, I can talk forever about the brilliance of Springsteen, and specifically all the levels of this song. Not just lyrically, but the music, with its haunting guitar, crashing cymbals and a synthesizer that evokes memories of the seashore. Like the lyrics and the man himself, simple sounds that belie much more beneath the surface.
The song continues.
it ought to be easy ought to be simple enough
Man meets woman and they fall in love
But the house is haunted and the ride gets rough
And you’ve got to learn to live with what you can’t rise above
if you want to ride on down in through this tunnel of love
There’s caution there, a warning. It “ought to be easy, ought to be simple enough” but of course, life is never as expected, no relationship is simple enough, “the house gets haunted and the ride gets rough.”
And it is about this time I realize that in addition to being a metaphor for the path of marriage a couple embarks on, it is also a fairly good representation of a fantasy season. From a whisper of good luck at the draft, to laughing at you while laughing at me, to injuries, and players underperforming, the house becomes haunted and the ride gets rough.
And it is at that point that Springsteen hits us between the eyes with my favorite lyric from any song, ever.
“You got to learn to live with what you can’t rise above.”
Which, like the song itself, is both seemingly simple and undeniably complex, speaking on many levels to the struggles we face daily and our choices on how to handle them. It’s great life advice, it’s great relationship advice and, though he certainly didn’t intend it, happens to also be great fantasy football advice for Week 16.
The questions I see on Twitter/X and Instagram are about different players, but they are basically the same.
“Is Bijan Robinson going to bounce back or should I go with a safer, but less upside-filled option like Chuba Hubbard?”
“Can I trust Devin Singletary against Cleveland or do I go with an under-performing Austin Ekeler?”
“If Trevor Lawrence clears the concussion protocol, do I start him having missed practice and his receivers less than 100% or do I start someone like Baker Mayfield?”
“Do you think Jordan Addison can produce again? Talented but his touchdowns last week were kind of fluky.” “Which Colts running back, if any, am I starting this week?” Etc., etc.
My take on all those questions can be found by looking at my rankings, of course. But it’s not as simple as that.
Because it is your team.
Your decision; your win or your loss. Yell on Twitter/X all you want, but understand that in the morning, you’ll still have only you, and no more fantasy football looking back at you in the mirror, if you make the wrong decision.
If I feel like I have a good shot or if it’s the second week of a matchup in which I’m leading or close, I’ll go conservative. If I’m down big or have been hurt by injuries and am limping in, I’ll swing for the fences. But it goes back to my advice at the very start of the season: What’s most likely to happen?
And it also goes to your own personal beliefs. As I’ve said many times before, I’d rather lose by starting the stud that got me there rather than having the flavor of the week put in a vanilla performance. If I left a stud on my bench who went off while some one-week wonder laid an egg, I’d be beside myself. But that’s me, and I know what I can and can’t tolerate during the offseason. You have to learn to live with what you can’t rise above.
Remember that as you set your lineup in Week 16. Shoutout as usual to my producer Damian Dabrowski and the entire gang in the FFHappyHour Tunnel.
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Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 16
Patrick Mahomes vs. Las Vegas
Yes, I’m telling you to play Patrick Mahomes in the fantasy playoffs. In every season of Mahomes’ career since he became the full-time starter, this would have been the most obvious piece of advice ever. But this season? It’s an actual real take. Mahomes is averaging a career-low 18.0 PPG. To put that in perspective: Joe Flacco is averaging 17.8 PPG. Yeah. Mahomes is just 0.2 points above Elite. But he’s still Patrick ####ing Mahomes. And the Raiders are still the Raiders. Over their past four games, the Raiders have allowed 250-plus passing yards and two-plus touchdown passes in three of them. Over that same stretch, the Raiders rank 25th in pressure rate. Then there’s Mahomes’ history against the Raiders: Since the start of the 2021 season, he is averaging 24.6 PPG against them. When Mahomes faced the Raiders back in Week 12, he posted his third-highest passer rating of the season. Don’t overthink it. Keep Mahomes in your playoff lineups. He’s my QB 5 this week.
Brock Purdy vs. Baltimore
A matchup against the Ravens might give Brock Purdy managers pause this week. But it could be much worse: you could have Baltimore’s Defense facing Brock Purdy and the 49ers. San Francisco actually has a Top 5 team total this week. Purdy remains nearly flawless at home, with a 22.4 PPG mark at Levi’s Stadium and 18-plus fantasy points in every single one of those games. Also, since Week 7, Purdy is averaging 10.9 yards per attempt; that’s two full yards more than any other quarterback over that span. And, hey, not for nothing, but over their past four games? Baltimore’s defense ranks bottom-12 in PPG allowed to quarterbacks. I say Purdy solidifies his MVP candidacy this week with a win over Lamar and is a top four play at the position.
Justin Fields vs. Arizona
It seems the Chicago Bears have decided that if they want to fully evaluate Justin Fields before deciding what to do with him long-term, they should see him in action as much as possible. Like, on every play. Since returning from injury, Fields is averaging 33 pass attempts and 12 rush attempts per game. He also has three red zone rushes in three of his past four games. This week he faces a Cardinals team that has allowed the second-most rushing yards on the season and the fifth-most rushing scores. But, wait … there’s more! The Cardinals are also bad against the pass. Over the past four games, Arizona has allowed a league-high 11 touchdown passes. Fields may or may not be the Bears QB of the future, but he is the fantasy play of every league where you have him. Justin Fields is my QB 6 this week.
Trevor Lawrence at Tampa Bay
I get it. His receivers are banged up and he’s in the concussion protocol as of this writing (Wednesday afternoon). But if Trevor Lawrence clears protocol in time to be in the lineup on Sunday, he should be in most fantasy lineups, too. I’m not worrying about if Zay Jones is playing or not. Because I do know who is playing and it’s the Buccaneers defense. Tampa has the 31st ranked pass defense this season. Teams facing the Bucs are averaging 36.8 pass attempts per game (tied for fifth-most). And, of the past five quarterbacks to face the Bucs, four of them have thrown for 250-plus yards. The only one not to was Bryce Young, who I’ve heard may be struggling as a rookie. If healthy, Lawrence is a Top 8 quarterback in Week 16.
Others receiving votes: When you mention the Dallas Cowboys and YAC, most assume you are referring to the sound the Cowboys make when they choke. But in this instance, I’m referring to Yards After Catch. Over the past four weeks, Dallas is allowing the second-most YAC and the fifth-most yards per reception. That’s why I like Tua Tagovailoa against Dallas this week in a home game for the Fins, with the highest total of the week, where Tyreek Hill is expected back. … The last four quarterbacks to face the Jaguars have all put up 18-plus fantasy points, and that includes replacement QBs Jake Browning and Joe Flacco. Over that same four-game span, Jacksonville ranks 29th in pass defense. That’s good news for Baker Mayfield, who has every reason to wake up on Sunday feeling like a viable fantasy quarterback. … Over the past four weeks, Detroit is allowing 19.9 PPG to quarterbacks and – on the season – the Lions are surrendering touchdown passes at the sixth-highest rate. This week Detroit faces the Vikings and Nick Mullens, who has a “Eff it someone is down there somewhere” mentality that produces anger from Kevin O’Connell and Vikings fans, but smiles from fantasy managers.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 16
Sam Howell at New York Jets
Sam Howell got benched last week against the Rams, but Ron Rivera says Howell is starting again this week. Don’t be the Ron Rivera of your fantasy league. In literally any sense, but specifically in terms of starting Howell. As a Commanders fan this is the right decision – he needs to keep getting reps. As a fantasy manager, who loves Howell, I want no part of him this week against this Jets defense. Let me put it this way. In the #FFHappyHour 12-team, Superflex Show League I am in the semifinals against Jay Croucher. And at one QB spot I’m starting Joe Flacco over Howell. (Jalen Hurts is my other QB). Back to the Jets defense. Since Week 7, they are allowing a league-low 10.2 PPG to quarterbacks. Only Josh Allen scored 11-plus points against them in a game over that stretch. And dating back nine games, the Jets have given up multiple touchdown passes only once. The future Hall-of-Famer is sitting on my fantasy bench. Sam Howell is outside my Top 20 this week.
Russell Wilson vs. New England
I hate Russell Wilson. But just this week. And just in fantasy. To be clear: I do not hate him constantly and with every fiber of my being, like it seems Sean Payton might. And in fairness, Payton does have some reasons for feeling displeasure. Since Week 4, Wilson has just one game with 225-plus passing yards. Now Wilson is facing a Patriots defense that, since Week 10, is allowing just 12.0 PPG to quarterbacks (and just 14.1 PPG on the season). In a game with the lowest Over/Under of the week, I’m avoiding Wilson just like he should consider avoiding Sean Payton on the sidelines. Wilson is just my QB 20.
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Running Backs I Love in Week 16
James Cook at Los Angeles Chargers
I get it. It feels crazy to play anyone in fantasy against the Chargers defense. After giving up 42 first half points to the Raiders last week, the Chargers surrendered merely 21 points in the second half. I mean … what an insane rate of improvement! But hear me out. Despite last Thursday’s impressive performance, the Chargers still are allowing the sixth-most PPG to backs over the past four weeks. And James Cook is, well, Cooking. Am I the first guy to make that joke? I thought so. No one can really capture that incredible word play the way I can. And while, for sure, after last week’s game he’s an obvious name, Love/Hate is all about expectations. And I have James Cook as RB 3 this week. Top 3 is higher than even the most ardent Cook supporters thought he’d get to this year. But since Joe Brady took over as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator in Week 11, he’s, wait for it, the RB3 in fantasy (24.1 PPG). Cook is also averaging 21 touches and a 15% target share in that Brady-ified offense. So yes, even against the quickly improving, mighty Chargers, Cook is an easy Top 3 play this week.
Rachaad White vs. Jacksonville
You can have your snow, I’m dreaming of a Rachaad White Christmas. Since Week 7, White is RB5 in PPG and has 17-plus fantasy points in seven of his last nine games. Like chestnuts over an open flame, White is roasting opposing defenses, averaging 20.7 touches and a 13% target share. Now he gets a Jack (short for Jaguar) Frost defense that can’t even nip at anyone’s nose. Over the past four weeks they are allowing 25.8 PPG and 140 scrimmage yards per game to opposing reindeer. Or something like that. I don’t know. I’m on Christmas overload. I’ve been stuck in a mall for 20 hours trying to find Ugg Tasman Slippers for my daughters and apparently they’re sold out everywhere, so my daughters are just gonna have to settle for Rachaad White having a top-five performance for Daddy’s fantasy team this weekend. What 12-year-old girl wouldn’t love that?
Breece Hall vs. Washington
This is all about matchup. Because my Commanders defense makes me want to throw up. Washington has allowed 100-plus scrimmage yards to a back in six straight games. During that span, every back to see just 12 or more touches against Washington has scored at least one touchdown. And Washington is allowing an absurd 31.0 PPG to backs over that stretch. Barf. Barf. Barf, barf, barf. Breece Hall is a Top 10 back this week.
Others receiving votes: Over their past four games, Dallas has allowed 16 rushes of 10 or more yards (fifth-most over that span). Now the Cowboys face De’Von Achane and his game-breaking speed. By the way, since Achane’s Week 13 return, he has a 19% target share. … Over his past four games, Chuba Hubbard is averaging 23.3 touches. He’s also RB10 in PPG over that span (16.6). I like him a lot this week against a Packers D that, since Week 10, is allowing 158.5 rushing yards per game and 5.4 YPC. … When Tennessee loses, Tyjae Spears can help you win. Get this: In Tennessee’s last seven losses, Spears is averaging a 57% snap rate and 10 touches per game. This week the Titans’ pass-catching back has a very positive matchup against the Seahawks. Since Week 10, Seattle has allowed the third-most receiving yards to backs.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 16
Austin Ekeler vs. Buffalo
Austin Ekeler told reporters this week that he’s planning to end this lost Chargers season in a big way: “I’m a free agent after this year, and so I’m still painting my résumé.” I see two problems here. One, résumés aren’t painted. And two, even if they were, this matchup for Ekeler would look like a finger painting done by a first grader who failed art class. Over the past four weeks, Buffalo is allowing the third-fewest PPG to backs. This is tough for me. Austin Ekeler is one of my favorite players in the NFL. He’s been on Fantasy Football Happy Hour multiple times. And he’s gone on many fantasy podcasts. He’s been a terrific friend and champion of the fantasy football industry over the years. And he’s an investor in my Fantasy Life company, so yes, I have a business relationship with him. But here’s what I can tell you. Austin Ekeler, the running back, is also Austin Ekeler, the savvy fantasy football manager. And as a fantasy football manager, Austin is well aware that since Week 11, he is RB32 in PPG with less than 10 fantasy points in four of his last five games. Twice in his past three games, he has a snap rate under 60%. That happened just once in his first eight games, by the way. Oh, and the Chargers have a bottom-five team total this week, too. And Austin is too proud to make any excuses, but I’ll just say, to the eye test, I don’t think he’s 100% healthy. He’s gutting it out because he’s a tough ass dude, but I don’t know. I would love to be wrong about him this week. But my guess is – if you are playing this week, you have gotten this far in spite of Ekeler, not because of. I have my guy just outside my top 20 running backs this week.
Javonte Williams vs. New England
The Patriots have not allowed a running back to rush for a touchdown since Week 10. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams averages just 8.1 PPG in games he doesn’t score. If that doesn’t convince you to avoid Williams this week if you can, how about this: Over the past four weeks, New England is allowing a league-low 2.6 YPC to backs. And during that stretch, no back has rushed for more than 46 yards against New England. I have Williams down at RB 30 in Week 16.
James Conner at Chicago
In his five games since returning from IR, James Conner has just 9 total receiving yards. Maybe he broke his hands while rehabbing his knee? Who knows. What I do know is that it would really help Conner’s fantasy managers if he was active in the passing game because he’s not likely to do much damage on the ground against the Bears. I get it. He was good against San Francisco last week. But I’m nervous because I don’t think this game gets out of hand like last week, which freed up Conner late in the game. Chicago has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to backs this season and only one back has rushed for even 75-plus against them in 2023. All of that is enough to put Conner outside my Top 25 backs.
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Pass Catchers I Love in Week 16
Rashee Rice vs. Las Vegas
Anyone still saying that Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have a good wide receiver hasn’t been watching Rashee Rice. Over the past four weeks, Rice is WR5 in PPG (20.4) with a 30% target share over that stretch and at least seven receptions in each game. Last week he even had a career-high 95% route participation. This week he gets a Raiders team that has allowed six touchdowns to receivers over their last four games. Rashee Rice isn’t Jerry Rice, he isn’t Tyreek Hill … but he’s still pretty good. And he’s my WR 8 in Week 16.
Mike Evans vs. Jacksonville
Mike Evans is averaging 17.1 PPG this season, more than he did in 2020, 2021 or 2022. My point is obvious: Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback than Tom Brady ever was. Glad that’s settled. But even if you don’t agree with me there, I think we can agree on this: Evans has a great matchup this week against the Jags. The Jaguars have allowed at least one touchdown to a WR in 13 of their last 14 games, as well the fifth-most overall. Jacksonville is also tied for the second-most TDs allowed on deep passes … and Evans has an eye-popping aDOT of 14.3. Playing with the best quarterback he’s ever had, Mike Evans is a Top 10 WR this week.
DJ Moore vs. Arizona
Last week DJ Moore passed Mike Ditka to move into 13th place for most receiving yards in a season in Bears history. (Ditka is an obscure player from the 1960s that even diehard Bears fans have never heard of. I heard he also may have done some acting?) Anyway … Moore should move into the Top 10 this week against an Arizona defense that is bottom-five in receptions, yards and touchdowns allowed to perimeter wide receivers. The Cardinals are also allowing the highest completion rate in the league on deep passes. Give me Moore as a Top 15 WR play in Week 16.
David Njoku at Houston
Over the past two weeks, David Njoku has put up 53.5 points – the fourth-most fantasy points over that timespan. Not TE4 … fourth overall. In Joe Flacco’s three starts, Njoku has 28 targets, three touchdowns and is averaging 19.1 PPG. And this all started before Flacco even came on the scene. Over Njoku’s past six games, he has at least six receptions in five of them. The good times should keep rolling this week against a Houston defense that ranks bottom-five in receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. Njoku is my TE 4 this week.
Trey McBride at Chicago
Since Week 8, Trey McBride has four games with eight-plus receptions and 80-plus yards. Tight ends named Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson have combined for four such games … all season! (Youth today, no respect for their elders.) This week McBride sees a Bears defense that is very agreeable to opposing tight ends. Tight ends who have seen six-plus targets versus the Bears are averaging 15.5 PPG. With McBride seeing a 27.3% target share since Kyler Murray returned, he should clear that six-target barrier with ease. McBride is again a Top 5 TE.
Others receiving votes: Since Christian Kirk was injured, Calvin Ridley has a 27.5% target share. With Zay Jones now also hurt, that is not likely to drop. This week Ridley faces a Bucs team that has allowed the second-most yards and fourth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. … Even with Justin Jefferson active last week, Jordan Addison saw a 19% target share – higher than any Jefferson game this season. Next up is a Detroit defense that, over the past four weeks, ranks bottom-10 in fantasy PPG allowed to wide receivers. … If the Jets have one weakness, it’s … okay, the Jets have a ton of weaknesses. Let’s try this: if the Jets’ pass defense has one weakness, it’s defending the slot. Teams see something there. In fact, four of the past five teams to face the Jets have targeted the slot 11-plus times. That presents a lot of opportunity for Curtis Samuel, who has a 26% target share over the past three weeks and is averaging 16.9 PPG over that timeframe. … Ja’Marr Chase is going to be out of the lineup, which opens up a 27% target share. Much of that should go to Tyler Boyd, especially against a Steelers defense that allows the fifth-most yards to the slot. … Tight ends who see six-plus targets against the Eagles average 16.0 PPG. Darren Waller has seen six-plus targets in six of his seven full games this season. … Hey, if Joe Flacco and David Njoku can get you deep in the fantasy playoffs, maybe Pat Freiermuth and Mason Rudolph can win them for you. Alright, maybe Freiermuth (alone) can help this week against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the most receptions and yards to TEs this season. And, when these teams met back in Week 12, Freiermuth put up 120 yards on 9 receptions along with a 34% target share.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 16
Terry McLaurin vs. New York Jets
Terry McLaurin put up a 6-141-1 for a season-high 26.1 fantasy points last week on 12 targets. If you had McLaurin in your lineup … great! I think you should end his season on that high. Meaning: Consider benching McLaurin this week if you have better options. Get this: A full 70% of his fantasy points last week came with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback. In his last four games with Sam Howell at quarterback? McLaurin is averaging 6.4 PPG and 31 receiving yards. And then there’s the lousy matchup this week. The Jets have allowed the fewest fantasy PPG to WRs this season and the fewest touchdowns to wide receivers. Congratulations on Week 15, Terry. Enjoy the bench in Week 16. McLaurin is outside my Top 30.
Diontae Johnson vs. Cincinnati
With Kenny Pickett not being ready to go on Saturday, Diontae Johnson will have his third different starting quarterback in four weeks. Although it doesn’t seem to matter much who is under center for Johnson this year. He now has six straight games with four or fewer receptions. And with 40% of his fantasy points over the past three weeks coming on touchdowns, he’s likely to see some negative TD regression in a fairly putrid offense. I have Johnson outside my Top 30 wide receivers this week.
Adam Thielen vs. Green Bay
For years, You’ve Lost That Lovin’ Thielen has been a popular fantasy team name. It might be time to change it to just: You’ve Lost. Because Adam Thielen hasn’t been doing his fantasy managers any favors during the second half of the season. Since Week 8, Thielen is WR47 in PPG – and that’s with having a 26% target share over that span. He’s averaging 45 yards per game and has zero touchdowns during the stretch, as well. With Carolina tied for the third-lowest team total this week, I’m not trusting Thielen in the fantasy playoffs. Thielen was once a set-it-and-forget fantasy WR, but those days are gone, gone, gone whoa-oh-oh-oh-oh.
Dalton Kincaid at Los Angeles Chargers
So it took me the entire column, but I did find a positive Chargers stat. Hooray! Ready for it? Over the past four weeks, the Chargers are allowing the eighth-fewest PPG to tight ends. Really, it’s true. So is this: Dalton Kincaid is averaging just 6.4 PPG this season when Dawson Knox is active, compared to 13.8 PPG when Knox is out. His target share also drops from 21.3% to 14.5% when Knox plays. And Knox is in Buffalo’s lineup this week, which means you should consider taking Kincaid out of yours. He’s just my TE 14 this week.
