With the betting markets for the NFL draft firmly established, here is a look at my NFL Mock Draft 2.0, which takes into account my rankings, as well as odds and scenarios that line with what I expect to happen on draft night.
1. Chicago Bears
Caleb Williams, QB, USC
Williams is a staggering -8,000 to be selected with the first overall selection, which is up significantly from the -400 this line opened at. The Justin Fields trade obviously exploded this market, so the time to attack this line has expired. Caleb Williams will be the No. 1 overall pick, this is settled science.
2. Washington Commanders
Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The No. 2 pick is where this draft really begins, with doubts arising about the Commanders possibly favoring Jayden Daniels’s dual-threat skill set over North Carolina QB Drake Maye and now Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy is even entering the mix.
FanDuel has the best odds on Daniels to go No. 2 at -125 (DraftKings -150), while DK is listing Maye at almost even money (-105). FanDuel is at a way more profitable +450 on McCarthy being the No. 2 overall pick with DK at +275. However, the time to take McCarthy at his opening price of +2,500 is long gone. Washington could potentially value Daniels’ more pro-ready profile, as Maye needs to do some cleanup on his footwork and drops making him likely still a year away from being an every-week starter. New reports indicate Washington could prefer Maye, so this pick will continue to be the subject of significant rumor and innuendo leading up the draft day.
3. New England Patriots
Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Maye and Daniels both check in at +125 over at BetMGM, with Maye sitting at +100 over at DK. This is also where the McCarthy market becomes intriguing at +400 on BetMGM, which is a nice bump over DK’s +350 line. Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison comes into play at this point in the draft, but I think the Patriots would rather trade down for a haul of picks before selecting Harrison at +1,200, making this an intriguing buying opportunity from a betting perspective.
I think the Patriots will run up to the podium if Maye is here, despite the late-draft season charge from McCarthy supporters. It’s not a big money maker at +125, and with Washington holding all the cards at No. 2, I feel there isn’t any value here with Maye. If anything, the potential of Maye going No. 2 and the Patriots balking at drafting Daniels (a 23-year-old, fifth-year signal caller) to trade down or draft a more moldable 21-year-old QB in McCarthy makes for an intriguing sprinkle candidate at +400. There are currently no Patriots “Team to Draft X Position Group” markets available to throw down some speculative plays in case of a trade down, just the No. 3 overall option.
4. Arizona Cardinals
Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals have proven to be very opportunistic lately trading down to acquire more draft capital. They banked a wealth of picks to move down from No. 3 to No. 12 with the Texans last year (Will Anderson trade), then moved back up to take OT Paris Johnson Jr., who was the player they coveted all along. I certainly think a similar scenario could be in play with Minnesota dangling the No. 11 and No. 23 picks to move up for a QB.
Harrison Jr. sits at -160 to be the fourth overall selection on DK, which is a sharp value over FanDuel’s -210 offering. McCarthy is the other conventional option at +240 on FD (+220 BetMGM) if Arizona trades down. Maye going No. 4 could also be considered a dark-horse sprinkle here at +800 on DK (+700 BetMGM) given the outside potential for one of the Commanders or Patriots selecting McCarthy, likely triggering a Godfather offer from Minnesota on the spot. However, that’s looking unlikely based on recent reports.
5. Minnesota Vikings (from Chargers)
J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
One could speculate that the effusive praise Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh heaped on McCarthy is out of loyalty to their Michigan ties. He knows there is a distinct possibility that McCarthy could be available at No. 5, and Los Angeles already has an entrenched star QB in Justin Herbert. Any propaganda that leads to the ever-calculating Harbaugh benefiting from a QB-desperate team paying up to take their next potential franchise savior needs to be viewed with appropriate skepticism.
If that happens, and the Occam’s Razor scenario of a Minnesota trade-up comes to fruition, this is the spot I think it will happen. Accordingly, I think McCarthy’s +430 odds on FanDuel to go No. 5 (+300 on DK/+350 BetMGM) are well worth a speculative investment, paying four times better than FanDuel’s +105 line for Minnesota to take McCarthy. McCarthy is currently listed at -300 on DK to be a Top 5 selection, but we can get +430 for him to be the No. 5 pick, which is his most likely draft position in the event of a trade up in my opinion. I like the value here a lot.
6. New York Giants
Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
While the Giants won’t be able to acquire the heir-apparent to QB Daniel Jones, who is quickly falling out of favor, they can certainly address the need for a top-flight WR1 with either LSU’s Malik Nabers (+160 FD/+130 BetMGM) or Washington’s Rome Odunze (+500 BetMGM) there for the taking. DK stops offering overall pick props at the fifth pick, but is offering Giants team props at -175 to take a WR with their first pick, and +130 for a QB, so Nabers to go No. 6 at +160 gives you a nice edge over the DK team line if that’s the direction you’re leaning here.
I think a multiverse exists where either Arizona takes Harrison leaving Nabers to fall into the Chargers’ lap, or the Giants simply prefer the bigger Odunze (6-2, 212 pounds), making his +500 odds (BetMGM) to be the No. 6 pick intriguing to me from a value-play standpoint.
7. Tennessee Titans
Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Nabers (+1,000) and Odunze (+750) were intriguing early offseason options for the Titans until they inked WR Calvin Ridley, sending their markets cratering. Alt is the 81% consensus pick over on the Mock Draft Database, and a pretty reasonable -120 value at to go No. 7 overall at BetMGM, considering DK has the Titans’ first pick OT line set at -300. He is my OT1 and a fine selection here from a program building standpoint.
Keep in mind, there’s always the trade-down possibility here with Odunze still on the board, making him a decent shot at (+750). I’m also intrigued with the potential that Tennessee could add a different weapon in TE Brock Bowers. While Alt remains a -250 favorite to be the first OL selected, Bowers is also a potential choice for GM Ran Carthon at the longshot price of +3,000. He was even mocked to the Titans by local beat reporter Nick Suss of the Nashville Tennessean two weeks ago in a “what if?” scenario. Comparing Bowers’ odds to go No. 7 overall (+3000 at FD), with BetMGM listing Tennessee to select a tight end with their first pick at +1,000, Bowers at 30-to-1 is a decent long-odds sprinkle for short money — even though you are losing some trade-down protection.
8. Atlanta Falcons
Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
There is no shortage of offensive weapons for the Falcons and new QB Kirk Cousins. DraftKings projects the Falcons to select a DL/EDGE with their first pick (-250), with CB checking in at +300 and OL +700.
If you are inclined to believe an EDGE is in Atlanta’s best interest, as the DK market reflects, then you might want to take a peek at +150 on FanDuel (+140 BetMGM) for Turner to be the No. 8 overall pick, since that’s the first spot a defensive player like Turner is likely to be selected according to team needs. Keep in mind that Turner is also -190 on FD to be the first defensive player taken.
Alabama CB Terrion Arnold (+1,200 to go No. 8/+1,700 to be first defensive player taken) had been a trendy potential selection here in early markets, but Toledo CB Quinyon Mitchell (+430 to be first defensive player taken) has moved into the CB1 favorite role. Interestingly enough, despite the wide +430 to +1,700 variance between Mitchell and Arnold in the first defensive player market, the difference between them to be the first corner selected, -155 to +135, is relatively small. If you’re a Terrion Arnold believer, a +1,700 short money sprinkle could yield a more appealing ROI than a heads-up with Mitchell in the first cornerback taken market, since that play requires a larger investment at +135.
9. Chicago Bears
Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The third of the “Big Three” 2024 wideouts, Odunze is a big play, big-game receiver who averaged 3.04 yards per route while receiving the most deep targets in the FBS (20 receptions on 43 deep targets). The prospect of a Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, Keenan Allen core for the Bears to build around would give Williams a set of elite wideouts he can evolve with.
The only market on the Bears’ second pick in the first round is, tangentially, Odunze at -1,600 to go Top-10. Which is likely to happen, but at a prohibitive 1-to-16 return.
10. New York Jets
Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
The pull for the Jets to give Aaron Rodgers a potentially game-changing weapon at TE or WR to go with WRs Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and RB Breece Hall has to be gravitational. Major upgrades were made to protect Rodgers with a brand new pair of bookends in Dallas Cowboys legend LT Tyron Smith, who recorded PFF’s second-highest pass block grade last season, and RT Morgan Moses (11th rated PFF OT). The Jets also inked OG John Simpson, who played the sixth-most snaps in the league (1,242) while being ranked as the 42nd overall guard last year.
Despite the overhaul of three starting OL positions, FanDuel still lists New York as the favorite at +145 to take an offensive lineman with their first pick (BetMGM +140). Where the market differentiates is at TE, with DraftKings listing the position as the favorite at +125 (BetMGM +150) and FanDuel offering both WR and TE at much more appealing 2-to-1 odds (DK has WR at +300). It’s almost assured that the selection will be an offensive player, but unless the Jets trade up to get Nabers or Odunze, they’re probably not going to have a shot at a “Big Three” wide receiver.
Four of the last six team-specific mock drafts from local writers on the NFL Mock Draft Database have the Jets selecting Bowers ... yet we are still getting 2-to-1 odds at DK on him? I chose Bowers as the Jets’ selection in my Mock Draft 1.0 before there were any betting markets assigned. I am staying the course with Brock here and taking the 2-to-1 odds.
11. Los Angeles Chargers (from Vikings)
Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
With this hypothetical trade down the Chargers now have three top-37 picks and two first-rounders next year to work with to help establish the new Harbaugh era. Given the rhetoric we’ve heard from the HC about running the ball and protecting QB Justin Herbert, offensive line is the current chalk pick to be LA’s first selection at -135 on BetMGM. WR checks in at +160 at DK after cap issues necessitated Mike Williams being cut and Keenan Allen being traded to Chicago.
If the Chargers stay at No. 5, my gut says Nabers is the pick unless Arizona trades down leaving Harrison available. The Chargers’ current starter at cornerback opposite Asante Samuel is second-year CB Deane Leonard who posted a 21% missed tackle rate and 57th percentile PFF defensive grade in just five games of NFL experience. In my estimation, BetMGM’s +1,000 (DK +550) to select a cornerback line is an attractive longshot when factoring in the trade down potential. The Chargers can still add impact contributors at WR and OL with picks No. 23 and No. 37, giving them the flexibility to go in any of the three likely directions.
A full-grown Mitchell (6-0, 195 pounds) thrived as the top corner in the MAC for the last two seasons, earning 92nd percentile cover grades in each. He allowed just 54 receptions on 132 targets with 27 pass break ups (PBU) in that span and backed up that production with a lockdown Senior Bowl against the best 2024 prospects in the country. When teams have extra top-50 picks in the bag like L.A. does here, that flexibility gives the Hail Mary bet of Chargers selecting a CB with their first pick (+1,000) a chance of hitting that simply won’t exist if LA stays at No. 5.
12. Green Bay Packers (from Broncos)
Olumuyia Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Denver doesn’t have a second-round selection and there are plenty of rumors and innuendo suggesting they are courting a trade-down scenario to bank picks in a reset year following Russell Wilson’s expensive dismissal. You’d be hard pressed to find a Broncos beat reporter mock draft that doesn’t employ a trade-down scenario. With the Big Four QBs off the board in this scenario, the Broncos trade down to No. 25 with Green Bay, which dips into their war chest of picks, peeling off the No. 25, No. 58 and a 2025 fourth-rounder to move up and address one of their two major needs in OL and CB.
The market is tilted toward Green Bay taking an OL with their first pick at -115 on BetMGM (-120 DK), where CB lurks at an interesting +185 on FD (+150 on DK). We can also eliminate the linebacker (+2,000) and safety (+600) longshots due to the trade-up. EDGE is listed at +550 and with Florida State’s Jared Verse still on the board here, it is a tantalizing option. However, with Fashanu still out there, I have Green Bay moving up to provide QB Jordan Love with the best pass protector available.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Raiders are in the unenviable position of dealing with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert four times per season. After getting shut out of the Big Four QB sweepstakes, and still possessing all of their 2024 and 2025 selections to move up if they need to, offensive line is the very slight favorite to be Las Vegas’ first pick at +140 (BetMGM), while CB is a close second at +175.
A trade back to accumulate capital and potentially take Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. with their first pick makes the +275 line on Raiders to draft a QB with their first pick particularly enticing. Alternatively, the Raiders could choose to hold onto the No. 13 pick and then move back into Round 1 to take Penix. In the latter scenario, the Raiders taking a QB with their first pick prop would be torched, which is why I like the ROI on FanDuel’s “Penix to be drafted by the Raiders” prop that’s currently sitting at +380.
For his part, Arnold spent 2022 in the shadow of his teammate, Kool-Aid McKinstry, but emerged as a fully-formed all around corner this year by posting 13 PBU, five interceptions and 21 stops. Arnold allowed a dirt low 50.7 NFL passer rating when targeted, a mark that ranked 5th nationally, in addition to earning an elite 90.8 PFF run defense grade (1st in P5). He would be a fixture in the Silver and Black secondary for years to come if this comes to pass.
14. New Orleans Saints
Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
The Saints are strong favorites to take an OL here at -200 at all the books, and this pick is crucial for a New Orleans team that is missing its third- and fourth-round selections and still has yet to identify a QB succession plan for when they inevitably move on from Derek Carr.
A mountain of a man at 6-5, 332 pounds, Fuaga didn’t allow a single sack in 694 pass snaps while earning a 90.9 PFF run block grade at right tackle for an overachieving Oregon State team. He showed out at the Senior Bowl by smothering multiple beleaguered DL and rarely giving ground, solidifying his status as a top-five tackle in a very respectable class.
The temptation to take Jared Verse here is very enticing, especially with FanDuel giving us +340 on DL being the pick here (+300 BetMGM). However, the glaring need for New Orleans to address its tackle spot overrides that potential impact defensive selection, though the -200 line for New Orleans to go OL doesn’t offer much betting appeal.
15. Indianapolis Colts
Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa
For betting purposes, DeJean is considered a cornerback, though many believe he could ultimately settle in at safety. The Iowa ballhawk missed just 3.9% of his tackle attempts while racking up 25 stops and holding opposing receivers to a 49.7 NFL passer rating.
The Colts are desperate to shore up their secondary at both positions, especially with the trade of Stefon Diggs to Houston and Trevor Lawrence ready to potentially make the leap. I’m sure the Colts would prefer if Terrion Arnold or Quinyon Mitchell were on the board here. DraftKings and FanDuel have them targeting a CB to the tune of +125/+115, while BetMGM has the best CB odds at +145.
Wide receiver comes in with the second shortest odds at +300 on FD/+260 DK, but BetMGM provides a much more appealing ROI at +400. There’s also a major discrepancy between DraftKings at +700 for the Colts to select a defensive lineman, and BetMGM at +290. LSU WR Brian Thomas is a logical fallback option if the Colts don’t like what’s available in the secondary, with WR paying +400.
16. Seattle Seahawks
Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
The Seahawks don’t have a second-rounder, so they need to make this pick count. The chalk play is to address OL at -120 on BetMGM, which is even more expensive at -150 DK/-160 FD. The substantial turnover we’ve seen on the defensive side of the ball in the fledgling post-Pete Carroll era has pushed defensive line into the secondary-favorite betting position on BetMGM at +125. FanDuel has a much more appealing DL line play at +175, if you have access to it.
Verse has jarring hands and prodigious lower body strength that allows him to control and shed opposing tackles. His 62 pressures and 21.8% win rate both ranked second nationally, not bad for a player who started his collegiate career at Albany. Verse would be an instant plug-and-play edge setter for the Seahawks and a nice value at No. 16.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars
Brian Thomas, WR, LSU
Cornerback is the favorite here at even money on BetMGM (-115 DK), but with the top three CBs already off the board, the Jaguars pivot to supplying their star signal caller with some firepower by selecting LSU phenom WR Brian Thomas. The WR prop is going to be more profitable over at BetMGM/FD at +250 (+200 DK), while DL/EDGE (+380 FD) and OL (+475 BetMGM) are both priced much better over at DraftKings +650.
Thomas caught 81% of his targets with a 24% deep target rate and only four receptions behind the line of scrimmage. He won downfield at an elite rate as well, reeling in 14-of-18 20+ yard targets for a 78% deep catch rate (No. 1 in FBS). Calvin Ridley is off to Tennessee and Christian Kirk is better off as a WR2. This path would allow the Jags to give Trevor Lawrence a full complement of weapons.
18. Cincinnati Bengals
Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Cincinnati OL market ranges from -160 on FD to -200 on DK, so that’s fairly settled. Where this market gets interesting is in the discrepancies of the CB and WR markets. Despite the rumors of a Tee Higgins trade around draft time, FanDuel/BetMGM list the Bengals at +900 to take a WR, where DraftKings is at +400. However, DK is an outlier in the other direction at CB, where BetMGM (+500) and FD (+470) are conservative compared to DraftKings’ +1,100 line.
In this scenario, I have the Bengals taking the man-mountain who measures in at 6-7, 340 pounds with absurd 36.125” length arms and 11.25” hands. On a per-play basis, Mims was almost impenetrable allowing just one QB hurry on the season with zero hits, penalties or sacks in 297 snaps. His 99.7% blocking efficiency mark led the entire Power Five last season as the brick-shaped RT finally was able to unleash his tantalizing physical gifts, albeit in a restricted fashion due to injury. Mims instantly upgrades the Cincinnati tackle group and can be a long term solution at the position if the big man can stay healthy.
19. Los Angeles Rams
Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
Welcome back to the first round, LA! The Rams bounced back nicely last year after cratering in 2022 following their Super Bowl run of 2021. Now, they actually have four draft picks in the first 100 picks and are looking to contend after hitting on WR Puka Nacua last year.
Before Aaron Donald retired, I was on the fence between the Rams going OL or CB in the first round, with EDGE needing to be addressed with one of their first few picks. Now, the entire market has shifted to -200 DK/-150 BetMGM for the Rams to target the DL/EDGE position that includes Texas’ Byron Murphy, Illinois’ Jer’Zhan Newton and Latu as available options. BetMGM is competitive with their CB pricing +600 (DK +450), while DraftKings is the place to bet OL +500 (FD +340).
Latu is a crosstown UCLA product who led the nation with a 13.3% pressure rate, 94.5 pass rush grade and 26.2% pass rush win rate last year. He gives the Rams an instant havoc creator on the outside to help alleviate the sting of Donald’s departure, but doesn’t offer much betting sizzle at -200.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jackson Powers-Johnson, C/G, Oregon
The Steelers traded up for Georgia OT Broderick Jones last year, and now address OL once again with the 20th selection. With the much maligned Arthur Smith now at OC it’s reasonable to expect a bevy of milquetoast, run-centric play calls.
Perhaps no player captured the hearts and minds of the Senior Bowl attendees like JPJ did. He routinely stonewalled every IDL he tussled with and entrenched himself as the premier interior offensive lineman in the 2024 OL group. Despite serving as a rotational backup in 2022, JPJ was awarded the Rimington Trophy in his first season as a starter, which is annually given to the nation’s top center. He possesses rare coordination allowing him to reach the outside on run plays despite being a titanic 6-3, 334 pounds, which is as big as it gets for a movement-oriented position like center.
The OL group is dominating the Pittsburgh betting market at -240 on FD (-200 BetMGM). WR ranges from +250 on BetMGM to +470 on FanDuel, while CB ranges from +550 on FD to +380 on DK. It’s hard to back any play except for OL here, with a +550 CB sprinkle being my Hail Mary of preference.
21. Miami Dolphins
Troy Fautanu, OT, Washington
A third-team AP All-American, Fautanu was remarkably consistent this year, recording a 71st percentile pass-block grade in every game, while never allowing more than two pressures in any contest for the national championship runners-up. His combine testing confirmed his freakish speed/power capabilities, testing in the 94th percentile on both the broad (9-5) and vertical jump (32.5") along with a blazing 5.01s 40-yard dash (96th%) combined for a 9.45 RAS score. The one glaring question about Fautanu is his relatively sawed-off proportions, as his 6-3 height is an eighth percentile measurement among NFL tackles, though he can easily move inside and be a plus-starter which would suit the Dolphins just fine.
The top of the Miami first-pick market is whittled down to OL, which ranges from -125 on FD, to -150 on DK, and DL at +220 (+200). The market longshot outlier is over at DK where they have Cornerback at +2,000, which is drastically different from FD (+750) and BetMGM (+550). Though Miami doesn’t have a 3rd or 4th round pick and wants to keep QB Tua upright at all costs, a little sprinkle on that 20-to-1 shot on cornerback at DK has some appeal.
22. Philadelphia Eagles
Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
Eagles to take a CB first is the prohibitive favorite at -115 across the board, which is the same sentiment that has been expressed in several recent influential mocks, though DL holds some appeal over at BetMGM at +250 (+185 on FD) since there are several signs pointing to Philly targeting an EDGE or CB here.
One of the fastest players in college football, Wiggins hit 22.6 MPH this year in a game against UNC that happened to be the second fastest in-game MPH reading in FBS (No. 1 Texas WR Xavier Worthy - 22.7 MPH). He went on to verify that speed at the Combine with a 4.26s 40-yard dash. His coverage was blanketing through his first eight games, allowing just nine completions with a long reception of 11 yards in that span, until North Carolina WR Devontez Walker took him deep in Week 12 for a 43-yard gain. At 6-2, 185 pounds, Wiggins has the tantalizing height and speed dimensions that teams covet and is still just 20 years old.
23. Los Angeles Chargers (from Vikings)
JC Latham, OT, Alabama
In this scenario, Harbaugh makes good on his pledge to bolster the offensive line so he can replicate the grind-it-out Michigan-style football he had so much success with this year. With this being the Chargers’ second pick, and the product of a trade down, there is no betting market available.
For his part, Latham played at All-American levels in 2023, as the big fella leading the Tide with a sensational 0.6% blown block rate on run plays. He allowed just three hits and two sacks on 429 pass reps and slashed his penalties from 11 to seven and earned a career high 81.9 PFF overall grade. Keeping in mind, this was all while anchoring a young Alabama OL that started a true freshman at LT in Kadyn Proctor.
24. Dallas Cowboys
Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Following the loss of legendary LT Tyron Smith and C Tyler Biadasz in free agency, offensive line is expected to be a top priority. This is evidenced in the market which has established OL as the -175 favorite, with DL/EDGE a distant second at +400 on BetMGM. Almost every single team-specific mock, and there are plenty for the Cowboys, since February has them selecting an OL with this pick. It’s tough to recommend an alternative here, outside of a shot at DL/EDGE in case Verse or Laiatu or Turner fall and force their hand.
One of the freakiest athletes of the OT class, Guyton began his collegiate career as a DT at TCU before transferring to Oklahoma and switching over on the offensive side of the ball. Though still wet behind the ears due to the late transition to OT, Guyton didn’t allow a single sack last year and is credited with a 0.0% blown run block rate on 303 reps. Dallas receives a dancing bear with great feet and upside from nearby Oklahoma to grow into a valued bookend. His Combine performance only solidified Guyton’s blue chip status with a 1.76s 10-yard split (87th%), 7.5s 3-Cone (89th%) and 34.5” vertical jump (98th%) for an outstanding 9.70 RAS.
25. Denver Broncos (from Packers)
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Denver will not be going into the season with Jarrett Stidham as its starting QB. While the Broncos are heavily connected to Nix as their next signal caller, he is not worthy of the No. 12 overall selection, which can be leveraged to move down. In this scenario they manage to claw back a second round pick from the draft-capital-rich Packers for their troubles to assist in their rebuild.
In turn the Broncos are largely favored to secure a future starting QB with their first draft selection (-160 DK/-125 FD) and hope to avoid another Paxton Lynch situation. DL is the next closest odds-wise at +300 on FD (+400 BetMGM).
DK has Nix at -175 to play for Denver while FanDuel sits at a much more enticing -130. At time of publishing FanDuel’s -125 line on “Broncos to take a QB with their first pick” is probably the best line on the board for this play, since it gives you the protection of QB Penix Jr. potentially being their preferred option at a 50 point discount. Currently, Penix Jr., is toggling between +550 on DK and +475 on FD to be selected by the Broncos for what it’s worth.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
Rookie sensation YaYa Diaby led the team with 7.5 sacks last season in a part-time role and Shaq Barrett is no longer with the team, leaving just Joe Tryon-Shoyinka on the edge with Diaby. Chop posted 92nd-percentile pass rush grades in each of the last two seasons and reduced his missed tackle rate from 26.7% in 2022 to 7.1% this season. Throw in a ridiculous 4.48s 40-yard dash (99.5th%), 1.53s 10-yard split (99.5th%) and a 10-8 broad jump (98.5th%) for a 9.72 RAS and you’ve got the makings of a potentially devastating EDGE defender.
The Bucs are +130 to select a DL on DK, though you’re better off taking advantage of FD’s +185 line. That mark is almost on par with TB taking an OL or CB, as each of those lines reside at +210. In this mock draft I battled between taking Duke OL Graham Barton (OL +225 DK) or Chop +130, while also balancing the need to acquire a young successor to Mike Evans at WR, which is my favorite longshot at +900 on BetMGM.
Ultimately addressing the ever-important EDGE position with a potential Pro Bowl performer in Robinson won the day in this scenario. Though a trade down with a QB-needy team to Round 2 would put the backdoor WR longshot potential even more in play.
27. Arizona Cardinals
Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama
This is Arizona’s second pick of the round, and is the one they acquired from the Texans in exchange for moving down from No. 3 to No. 12 in 2023. Because it’s their second pick of the draft after taking Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 in this scenario, there is no betting market on the selection. The Cardinals take the value that falls to them here by selecting the preseason CB1 in Kool-Aid McKinstry. Though his PBU output decreased from 16-to-4, McKinstry only had 39 passes thrown his way this year as opposed to 80 in 2022, as teams looked away from him. At 6-1, 195 pounds, Kool-Aid has the size and pedigree to match up with the loaded NFC West wide receiver units.
28. Buffalo Bills
Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
At noon ET on Tuesday, April 3, the Bills were -105 to take a wide receiver with their first pick. Then Adam Schefter sent out the now infamous Stefon Diggs-to-Houston post which resulted in DraftKings moving the line to -300 (-240) in short order. DL is next at +470 on FD (+400 DK), but it’s hard to back any play besides WR when factoring in recent developments.
Worthy had a true freshman breakout before being used as a deep threat by head coach Steve Sarkisian in 2022, recording a 17.6 ADOT and a 39% deep target rate to go with a 10.6% drop rate. However, in 2023, Sarkisian modified his usage, paring back his ADOT to 9.9 yards and deep target rate to 17.7%. With more designed touches closer to the line of scrimmage, Worthy was able to average 7.5 YAC, which is the highest YAC of any WR in the 2024 NFL Draft class. Oh, and he broke the all-time 40-yard dash record at the combine with a blazing time of 4.21 seconds.
Put it all together, and I think Worthy’s profile is too explosive for the Bills to pass on.
29. Detroit Lions
Graham Barton, OT/G, Duke
Lions GM Brad Holmes has been steadfast in stating that he won’t be drafting for need, and instead will be selecting the proverbial “best player on the board.” CB is the slight favorite at +135 at BetMGM, but the top CB options have already been taken off the board in this scenario. OL is next up at +275, while DL isn’t far behind at +300. Byron Murphy and Jer’Zhan Newton were strongly considered, and would bring a tidy +300 payout. However, Barton falling to No. 29 gives Detroit a plug-and-play lineman who can be an instant starter at LG while also being able to kick outside in a pinch.
Barton was a beast in 2022, recording 98.7% block efficiency with just two sacks and eight hurries to go with a sensational 88.2 PFF overall grade that ranked fourth among all FBS tackles that year. In fact, he was one of only two tackles nationally that earned 85th percentile grades in both run blocking and pass protection that season, solidifying his excellence in both phases of the game. Unfortunately he missed four contests to injury in 2023 that hampered his play, but Barton showcased his first-round pedigree the previous season.
30. Baltimore Ravens
Byron Murphy, DT, Texas
The Ravens are strong +200 favorites to select an OL with their first pick. DL is actually in second position offering a +350 return on DK, though I’d recommend the DL +500 on FanDuel for a better return. Perhaps the most intriguing betting option is WR at +470 on FD, as several recent local mocks have the Ravens selecting a wideout or a DL, such as Murphy or Missouri DL Darius Robinson. With each of those positions offering a near 500% return, it’s hard not to at least throw a speculative investment or two at these props.
For his part, Murphy is an incredible athlete who racked up 45 pressures and 21 stops while living in opposing backfields. When it’s time to pin his ears back on third downs the Texas three-technique generated a sensational 17.5% pressure rate and his 91st percentile overall grade ranked second nationally among DTs behind only his teammate T’Vondre Sweat. I also considered an OT here, but ultimately Murphy is the best player on the board, which swayed my decision.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona
The market is projecting San Francisco to select an OL, with a consensus forming amongst bookmakers at -115 that an OL will be their first pick. DL and CB have the next lowest odds at FanDuel at +400 apiece. Jer’Zhan Newton was strongly factored in here and would be tough to pass up if available. The fact he’s still here has me strongly considering the 4-to-1 return on the DL position. Regardless, the allure of sewing up Brock Purdy’s blind side was too logical with LT Trent Williams nearing his expiration date.
A fifth-year LT who turned his fortunes around when head coach Jedd Fisch arrived to turn around the Wildcats after Kevin Sumlin’s era, Morgan made a miraculous recovery from a torn ACL late in 2022 to play every game this season. He responded by posting the sixth-highest PFF pass block grade in the country (87.3) with a 0.0% blown run block rate in 311 opportunities last year. The pillar of Zona’s offensive line, he allowed just two sacks with a 98.3% blocking efficiency rate and had one of his best games against UCLA’s ferocious EDGE group that boasts Laiatu Latu and the Murphy brothers, all of whom will be drafted in 2024.
Morgan could conceivably start right away at right tackle until LT Williams is ready to hang up his cleats.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
Travis Kelce’s career will be reaching its conclusion in the next couple of years, so KC needs a skill position succession plan in place alongside 2023 draftee Rashee Rice. The Chiefs are -130 across the board to take a WR with their first selection, with OL +220 and CB +375. The majority of recent mocks have Adonai Mitchell as the favored selection of Chiefs Nation, with OTs like Jordan Morgan and Kingsley Suamataia also proving to be popular choices. I don’t have a particular betting lean here and could see KC shopping this pick to a team that missed out on the first tier quarterbacks. It was close, but Mitchell’s tantalizing physical package gives him the slight edge over Georgia WR Ladd McConkey’s expert separation ability here.
Though he didn’t do any agility testing at the combine, Mitchell was unnaturally fast for his size, running a 4.34s 40-yard dash at 6-2, 205 pounds (98.6th%) with a 1.48s 10-yard split (98.8th%). At the end of the day, a near perfect 9.99 Relative Athletic Score speaks for itself in terms of illustrating Mitchell’s physical traits, and he recorded the second-highest ADOT in the class at 16.3 air yards per target. I have some questions about his snap-to-snap consistency and uninspiring 1.84 yards per route average, but there’s a ton of potential for him to erupt in the high-octane Chiefs offense.
