Sleeper has inputted the 2024 class so we have a first glance at how the Rookie ADP values are shaping up according to early drafters. However if you plan to use the current Sleeper ADP values in your early Rookie drafts, you are doing yourself a disservice as there are several pitfalls to avoid in addition to a host of players who are still in college that slipped into the player pool. Here are my initial round-by-round thoughts on how the board plays at the moment.
The first seven picks are essentially locked in with the only variable being the order of selection. Caleb and MHJ are Elite and will go 1-2 in most formats. The 1.3 is a round-robin between Nabers/Bowers/Maye/Daniels, with one of the Maye/Daniels QB combo typically going in that slot for SuperFlex purposes. Nabers is comfortably my second-favorite skill player after Marv, leaving the battle for 1.06 between Bowers and Odunze. Bowers has been going ahead of Odunze about 65% of the time from what I’ve seen, but with NFL.com’s Daniel Jeremiah labeling Washington WR Rome Odunze as the #3 overall prospect in the draft (1 - Caleb | 2 - MHJ), he could potentially challenge Nabers to be the 2024 NFL Draft WR2 which would certainly give him a rankings bump.
Pick 1.8 kicks off the second-phase of the draft. Sleeper ADP has Oregon WR Troy Franklin slotted at 1.8, but I’ll be shocked if Troy Franklin is selected before Michigan QB JJ McCarthy and LSU WR Brian Thomas when NFL draft capital is finally assigned. McCarthy is my projection to be the post-NFL Draft consensus 1.8 selection and will likely land in the top-half of the NFL R1. Bo Nix is fresh off a middling Senior Bowl performance, replete with check downs and downfield inaccuracy, and will likely end up falling into the mid-second round ADP when the board settles in May, making him a low-value selection at 1.10. You can make a first-round case for anyone else listed here, with the exception of Nix.
Worthy, Mitchell and Benson are a completely defensible top-3, but the 2.4 is where things get real interesting. Blake Corum is clearly getting the Michigan National Championship rankings bump from the early drafting casuals, as Corum’s 2.47 YAC average ranks 137th out of 152 FBS running backs with 100+ carries. His 23 missed tackles forced on 218 carries (10.5% broken tackle rate) is the lowest amount of MTF of the top 35 highest usage RBs in FBS, with the next fewest being 29 MTF (Antario Brown/Rasheen Ali). There is no way Corum should be taken in front of Jonathan Brooks and should not be considered a realistic option until the early-3rd. Brooks is my RB1 and will rise up to the 1.11-2.02 range when the rookie draft market matures. He’s an excellent buy opportunity at 2.5.
It’s not just Corum that’s overpriced, as Braelon Allen, Devontez Walker and Will Shipley should all be vanquished to the 3rd-Round phantom-zone. Allen is a 240-pound power-back with rigid hips who profiles as AJ Dillon reincarnate while Devontez Walker proved to everyone in attendance at the Senior Bowl that he is a speed first, savvy last wideout who is thin for NFL boundary work and has yet to demonstrate the ability to run a credible route tree.
With Will Shipley, I’ve been shouting from the CFF rooftops that his backup RB, Phil Mafah, is the superior rusher who deserves a larger share of the workload over Shipley. 2023 was the year that my bold prediction came true, with RB1A Mafah outperforming his counterpart on a down-to-down basis as Shipley was relegated to all-purpose RB1B. I have him rated as the 35th overall player in the 2024 rookie fantasy draft pool.
Malachi Corley is a boom/bust selection at 2.10 considering his very basic route-running capabilities and Rondale Moore-esque 5.5 ADOT usage. It remains to be seen whether he can expand his downfield receiving acumen, but he’s a bulldog in pads when he gets the ball in his hands and has a stocky 5’10/215 running back-like frame that is ideal for plowing through tacklers.
So much value here, as Ja’Lynn Polk, Ladd McConkey, Roman Wilson, MarShawn Lloyd, Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Leggette are all second-round caliber talents. I’ve seen multiple recent NFL Mock Drafts that have Polk or McConkey slipping into the late-first round, which would give them 1.10-to-2.3 rookie draft capital justification. Getting them at 3.1 and 3.4 are excellent values. Leggette has a pretty wide variance too, as I’ve seen the jacked-up fifth-year breakout WR going in the 2.2-to-3.4 range in recent trading.
Roman Wilson’s stats were hampered by Michigan’s run-heavy offensive attack that ran the ball 64.4% of the time, but he blew away the Senior Bowl with lightning quick feet and highlight reel catches. An ADP of 3.10 is a major buying opportunity in early rookie drafts, as I’d say Wilson’s post-NFL Draft ceiling is 3.2 and you’re probably going to have to go up to 2.8 to get him after he runs a 4.40 40-yard dash at the Combine. Pearsall’s other-worldly hands have produced some of the most awe-inspiring highlight reel catches of any receiver from the 2024 Draft class. Despite a relative lack of elite athleticism, Pearsall dazzled the onlookers at the Senior Bowl with his route-running savvy and aforementioned golden mitts and is a solid bet to earn a bump in CLV from his current 3.9 ADP.
MarShawn Lloyd also helped to boost his profile at the Senior Bowl in mobile, coming away as the unquestioned top-RB at the event. Lloyd finished top-5 in broken tackle rate and PFF Elusiveness rating in addition to leading the nation with 17.8 yards per reception. I expect to see him settle in the 2.9-to-3.1 range despite some issues with his vision between the tackles. I sincerely think we’re going to uncover a handful of startable Dynasty players from the late-2nd to 3rd Round range.
There is no acceptable scenario where Tennessee QB Joe Milton should be selected in front of Senior Bowl MVP QB Spencer Rattler or Tulane QB Michael Pratt, and I personally view Milton as undraftable in standard five-round leagues. Having interviewed Rattler at the Senior Bowl, I thought he handled a hectic media session in a confident, professional manner that contradicted the loose demeanor of his QB1 days. Rattler persevered after going from a surefire top-10 NFL Draft pick at Oklahoma, to getting beat out by Caleb Williams and transferring to South Carolina to reboot his career. He wowed scouts on the way to earning Senior Bowl MVP recognition and solidifying his QB7 status for me, slightly ahead of Tulane QB Michael Pratt who ranked 3rd nationally with a 99.4 NFL Passer Rating under pressure. I think both have starting potential and are worthy Rookie Draft R3 selections for QB needy dynasty franchises. There won’t be many scenarios in SuperFlex leagues where both of them slip to R4.
Theo Johnson is alongside Ben Sinnott (pick #5.2) as the most projectable fantasy tight ends after Bowers and Ja’Tavion Sanders are off the board, and I’m borderline irate that AJ Barner is listed ahead of them. Stover (4.7) is a solid, dependable B10 TE Who is worth a mid-late 4th, but doesn’t have the fantasy upside of Sinnott and Johnson. There is absolutely nothing wrong with teams that are rostering Kelce/Engram/Waller looking to the future and taking either of them in R3, especially in TE Premium leagues. Throw-in versatile, undersized FSU TE Jaheim Bell (5.3) as tight ends I’d rather have over Barner (4.10) and Colorado State TE Dallin Holker (5.1).
I slipped in Missouri RB Cody Schrader at 4.4 because at time of publication, Sleeper had yet to add the rugged Missouri RB into their system yet. Schrader’s solid Senior Bowl showing has him likely pegged for R5-6 NFL Draft capital which would make him a more than acceptable R4 dart throw. Jacob Cowing drew some pre-Senior Bowl buzz thanks to his mid-range prowess that could evoke memories of Josh Downs in a certain framing. However Cowing’s 5’084/165 dimensions made him the smallest WR at the event by a full 20 pounds and it showed with the Arizona standout getting swallowed up by the upper echelon Senior Bowl talent pool at the corner position. His ceiling is a late-3rd, but a R4 Rookie Draft range is likely his final destination.
If you’re looking for a potential home run in R4-5, UVA WR Malik Washington (5’8/194) is quick, compact and a terror in space who led the nation in missed tackles forced with 35, while earning the second-highest PFF receiving grade in FBS in 2023. Despite not receiving a Senior Bowl invite, Washington tore up the Shrine Bowl and could have a similar impact to 2022 Shrine Bowl star, Patriots WR Demario Douglass. I think Douglass will likely end up in R4 in most rookie drafts when the dust settles. Alabama RB Jase McClellan (5’11/212) is a worthy R5 shot given the vaunted Bama RB legacy, as he fought off a cadre of highly-touted challengers to grind out 181 carries for the Tide this year.
Frank Gore Jr. is undersized (5’8/195), but has an NFL pedigree and earned 90th percentile PFF rushing grades while averaging 228 carries in each of the last two seasons. With injuries shutting him down after Week 8 this year, Ohio State RB Miyan Williams (5’9/226) has been somewhat of a forgotten man amongst the 2024 Draft class, rarely getting selected outside of a late-R5 dart throw in most Rookie Mocks. However it’s important to remember that Williams broke a tackle on a phenomenal 42% of his runs over his first three seasons, spanning 209 rushing attempts against notoriously stout Big Ten defenses. I have no issues with him as a late-R4 sleeper who gets a major boost if he can run around 4.6s and test well at the Combine.
As a public service announcement, the following players that are listed in Sleeper’s Rookie Player Pool are still in college and should be removed ASAP.
