The 2024 NFL Draft is just three days away, and Chris Simms is celebrating draft week by releasing his mock for the entire first round.
Everyone knows it’s a quarterback-loaded draft, and that will be reflected in the number of signal-callers that hear their name called on Thursday. What’s much harder to anticipate is when exactly those names will come off the board — and it’s even harder to guess how the draft order will change not just between now and Thursday, but even once the event is under way in Detroit.
Here’s Simms’ best guesses at those questions and everything else for Round 1.
1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers) - Caleb Williams, QB, USC
“This is done. It’s in the books ... I don’t see too many flaws with him.” “Has got some of those Mahomes-ish kind of traits.” The Bears could be a team to watch in 2024, with a strong defense toward the end of last season and an offense with plenty of potential.
2. Washington Commanders - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
The Commanders haven’t had “that big-time guy” at quarterback in some time — and Daniels has an opportunity to become him. The fit between Daniels and new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is a good one.
3. Minnesota Vikings (from Patriots) - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
“This is where it gets crazy.” The Patriots have to take a quarterback, but they also want to trade out of No. 3 overall. Enter: Minnesota’s desperation for a quarterback of the future, and enter McCarthy, who “fits Kevin O’Connell’s offense” — and who’s the type of quarterback the Vikings head coach believes he can develop.
4. Arizona Cardinals - Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
A safe pick, given Harrison’s high floor. Malik Nabers might fill a bigger hole in their offense, but Harrison — “a damn good player,” to be sure — goes to Arizona.
5. Los Angeles Chargers - Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
It’s the Harbaugh Way: Build through the trenches. “You can’t be wrong” with Alt as Jim Harbaugh’s first pick leading the Chargers, and there won’t be too long of an adjustment period for him in the NFL.
6. New York Giants - Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
“It’s the most glaring thing on their team — offensive guy that can make plays.” Nabers fills a void that’s been mostly empty since Odell Beckham Jr. left New York, and it’ll provide a needed boost for quarterback Daniel Jones as well.
7. Tennessee Titans - JC Latham, OT, Alabama
He could’ve gone No. 5 to the Chargers, but he goes to Tennessee instead. The Titans’ offensive line has been through the ringer in recent years, and it’s “the thing that needs to be addressed by them in a big way.”
8. Atlanta Falcons - Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
An obvious fit with Raheem Morris, and the team’s top need. The Falcons could well go with a cornerback, specifically Quinyon Mitchell, but Turner’s high floor makes sense for Atlanta: “OK, he doesn’t get 15 sacks a year, he gets seven. But he’s still your starting outside linebacker for a long, long time.”
9. Chicago Bears - Laiatu Latu, EDGE, UCLA
In perhaps the first surprise of the draft, the Bears go a direction other than wide receiver, because the WR room is already deep in Chicago. “Sometimes, having the best defense in football really helps a young quarterback, too.”
10. New York Jets - Troy Fautanu, G, Washington
“The thing I’ve been saying to people ... you’re really gonna roll the dice on Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses, that they’re gonna stay healthy all year? With a quarterback who’s coming off an injury and older anyways? ... To me, it’s the smart pick.”
11. New England Patriots (from Vikings) - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
If they wait any longer to snag a quarterback, the Patriots could be in danger. If Maye needs time to develop, Jacoby Brissett can start in 2024 — but Maye could win the job in camp, too.
12. Denver Broncos - Bo Nix, QB, Oregon
Much like the Patriots, Denver can’t wait too long to take a QB due to their lacking a second-round pick. “You’d better be careful” trading down and hoping to land a QB in the 20s. “They need somebody ... Sean Payton needs somebody that can play now.” Nix can. (Shortly after the mock draft’s release, the Broncos traded for Zach Wilson, but that seems unlikely to change Denver’s QB calculus in the draft.)
13. Las Vegas Raiders - Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington
“There’s some things he’s gotta clean up with his mechanics and things like that, but at the end of the day, the pure talent is there.” This is the Raiders’ “beacon of hope,” and he’s ready to play right away. If Antonio Pierce wants to make a run, he’ll need a spark like Penix at quarterback.
14. New Orleans Saints - Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas
“For me, without a doubt, one of the best players in this draft.” The Saints are getting older, especially up front, there’s not a huge need in the secondary and Murphy is a great fit with the defensive-minded Dennis Allen.
15. Indianapolis Colts - Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
With no glaring needs on the offensive line, Bowers’ run-blocking ability fits well, especially with Anthony Richardson at quarterback. “They don’t have anything like this.”
16. Philadelphia Eagles - Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
Cornerback is the only notable position that’s lacking a bit on the Eagles’ “embarrassingly awesome” roster, so Philadelphia trades up to No. 16 for the best corner in the class. “Bold move. That’s what the Eagles do. I think you could argue this is the best defensive player in the draft.”
17. Jacksonville Jaguars - Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
“I was a little stuck with them, I wasn’t sure what to do,” but cornerback is Jacksonville’s biggest positional need. Does Philadelphia’s trade change their approach? Maybe, but the Jaguars stick with corner and get the Clemson product with “special” athleticism.
18. Cincinnati Bengals - Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
Teams are largely split on their evaluation of Odunze, so he falls to 18, and the Bengals pounce on the opportunity. There’s not a ton of desperation on the offensive line, so the Bengals choose not to pass up on Odunze, and they take a lineman later.
19. Seattle Seahawks (from Rams) - Taliese Fuaga, G, Oregon State
After trading back to 22, the Seahawks trade up again to 19 and get the top inside offensive lineman in the class. Fuaga’s ability to play tackle makes the former Oregon State Beaver a good fit in Seattle.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, T, Penn State
He’s “a little all over the place” among evaluators, but the Steelers have a need at tackle, and their familiarity with him due to their Penn State proximity eventually helps him land in black and gold.
21. Miami Dolphins - Graham Barton, G, Duke
“They need somebody that’s just gonna work, no matter what. And Graham Barton’s safe that way.” Tackle isn’t his best spot, but he can play it, and the Dolphins need a guard after Robert Hunt’s departure.
22. Los Angeles Rams (from Seahawks) - Darius Robinson, DT, Missouri
He can play as a defensive tackle or on the edge, and with Aaron Donald gone, the Rams get Darius Robinson instead of a pass-rusher like Jared Verse or Chop Robinson.
23. New England Patriots (from Vikings) - Amarius Mims, T, Georgia
“Pass-protection wise, [he’s] ready Day 1. He’s phenomenal. He really is.” The Patriots have a need at tackle, so this one is a “no-brainer” for New England.
24. Dallas Cowboys - Tyler Guyton, T, Oklahoma
Offensive line is an obvious need in Dallas, and the Cowboys may want a pass-rusher or safety, but the value at this stage of the draft isn’t quite there, and tackle is too glaring of a need to ignore.
25. Green Bay Packers - Cooper DeJean, S, Iowa
DeJean adds to a Packers team that’s already put together quite well. “You look at their team, they don’t need a ton.” He can play safety, strong safety and nickel, and he can cover tight ends like T.J. Hockenson, Sam LaPorta and Cole Kmet in the NFC North.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State
“I seem to be in the — negatives are more low on him. It kinda fell this way naturally for me ... They need somebody ... They need a true pass-rusher, and that’s where I think Jared Verse fits in real well.”
27. Arizona Cardinals - Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Cardinals need a cornerback. “He’s a safe, smart guy. With a guy like Jonathan Gannon, who does a lot of different stuff on defense, they certainly need a nickel type of football player. And I think just, smart, good football player that fits what I would think is the Monti Ossenfort formula.”
28. Buffalo Bills - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
“No doubt” the Bills win the first round if they land Thomas. “I definitely know people that — Brian Thomas is way up there as far as what they think of him as a receiver.” He may slip due to an injury, and if he’s there at 28, the Bills get a needed piece.
29. Detroit Lions - Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State
“He’s a totally different animal than Aidan Hutchinson. You can play him on the weak side and go, ‘Hey, you don’t have to worry about the run game as much, and fly up field and get after it. Cause some disruption. And I think that’s an area of their football team that needs an improvement.”
30. Baltimore Ravens - Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
“I think it’s a little bit more of a look at the future” with the Ravens. “Mitchell’s got big-time potential. He’s not my favorite guy ... Too much coasting. But there is big-time potential. The body, the speed, the measurables, the numbers, all of that are definitely first-round worthy.”
31. San Francisco 49ers - Roger Rosengarten, T, Washington
“Athletic dude. I know Shanahan likes him ... I just thought, man, offensive line needs to be addressed.” Wide receiver is an option, but ultimately, OL is the 49ers’ biggest need.
32. Kansas City Chiefs - Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois
“He can stop the run, and he’s got true pass-rush ability on the interior side. It’s a great spot for him. I’d like to see that happen for the Chiefs.”