Toronto Blue Jays
2023 record: 74-88
Fifth place NL East
Team ERA: 4.29 (22nd in MLB)
Team OPS: .703 (18th in MLB)
What Went Right
Well, not much went right for a team with true World Series aspirations who fell apart by Memorial Day. Yet, as with any team, we can find some bright spots. Mainly for Toronto, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. bounced back after a down 2023 to reestablish himself as one of the most feared hitters in baseball.
His .323 batting average was second among qualified hitters and his 165 wRC+ was sixth. For context, he had a 166 wRC+ in his standout 2021 season and dropped down to 118 in 2023. There is no doubt he is one of the best pure hitters in baseball and that affirmation was the primary bright spot for this Blue Jays team.
Their rotation was strong, too. José Berríos logged 192 1/3 innings with a 3.60 ERA despite middling underlying metrics and a drop in his strikeout rate. Similarly, Chris Bassitt tossed 171 innings with a 4.16 ERA and saw his velocity rise marginally from 2023. They remain formidable mid-rotation starters.
Although, Bowden Francis became the star of this pitching staff by season’s end. He reclaimed a rotation spot after Yusei Kikuchi was traded to the Astros and allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his nine starts to close the season. That came after winning a rotation spot out of spring training and imploding – 12 ER across 8 1/3 IP – in two starts out of the gate.
Otherwise, Spencer Horwitz seems to have cemented himself as a major league quality player. He became a regular in early June and finished the season with a 127 wRC+ across 381 plate appearances. For context, that was higher than Trea Turner, Manny Machado, or Pete Alonso’s regular season wRC+.
What Went Wrong
I not-so inconspicuously left Kevin Gausman’s name out when lauding the Blue Jays staff above. That’s because Gausman took a dramatic step back this season and showed some true flaws that makes me think he will never be a true, front line ace again.
His velocity fell, his splitter didn’t have the same depth, and he’s never been able to bring a true third pitch into his repertoire in a meaningful way. With that, his ERA jumped from 3.16 in 2023 to 3.83 this season while his strikeout rate fell nearly 10 percentage points from 31.1% to 21.4%. Also, opponents hit the ball harder and swung-and-missed less often. Not good at all.
Yet, Gausman still may not have been the most disappointing Blue Jay this season. Bo Bichette dragged his feet to a putrid .225/.277/.322 slash line over 81 games with just four home runs and five stolen bases. His .598 OPS was the 12th lowest in all of baseball among hitters with at least 300 plate appearances: nestled between Joey Meneses and Johan Rojas.
He did deal with a litany of injuries this season with the most concerning being a calf strain that lingered for about three months. That certainly hurt his production and he finally got healthy with about three weeks to go in the season before breaking his finger on a pre-game ground ball. Just one of those years for Bichette.
To make matters worse, father time finally caught up to George Springer. His power which trickled down in 2023 fell off a cliff in 2024 as he didn’t come within five MPH of his max exit velocity from the year before and his OPS wound up at a lowly .674. He still wound up with 19 homers and 16 stolen bases though without too dissimilar of a barrel rate to 2023, so there’s mild bounce back appeal for the 35-year-old.
Alek Manoah got himself together and pitched to a 3.70 ERA with a 25.2 K% over five starts, then hurt his elbow and wound up missing the rest of the season with an internal brace surgery to fix his damaged UCL.
Lastly, this wound up as one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Closer-incumbent Jordan Romano made just 15 appearances, pitched to a 6.59 ERA, and had elbow surgery in June. Chad Green was totally fine and became the de facto closer after Yimi García and Nate Pearson were traded at the deadline and there wound up being no other redeemable relievers in a bullpen that ended the season with a miserable 4.82 ERA, second worst in the league.
Fantasy Slants
Long a two-pitch pitcher, Gausman’s fastball velocity trickled down to 93.9 MPH which was below league-average. It forced swings-and-misses at nearly the same rate, but the quality of contact against it spiked and it was no longer a meaningful put-away pitch for him. So, hitters could be more ready for his splitter after falling behind and the entire approach became more predictable while also less effective.
Gausman has never been able to get his slider quite right and that is a pitch that could help him bounce back. He also started throwing a sinker more by mid-season which was hit hard while also offering a slight wrinkle. Keep an eye on any news of a new pitch for Gausman this offseason.
Sticking with the rotation, Francis’ draft price come this spring will be fascinating. He was a preseason darling fueled by solid Stuff+ numbers and a 1.53 ERA, 0.53 WHIP, and 23.2 K-BB% over nine starts to end the year is nothing to sneeze at.
He becomes much more interesting when you see the tangible change he made to fuel his hot finish. Francis introduced a new splitter that took the place of his curveball – hitters had a .558 slugging percentage off that pitch – to be the foil for his riding fastball. That along with growing comfortability in a slider and sinker by season’s end has me bullish on his 2025.
Back to the bats, it’s hard to seriously question Bichette’s fantasy upside going forward. He’s never been able to lay off pitches out of the strike zone yet kept a high average with hyper-aggression on pitches in the zone with an opposite field approach. That kept his ceiling at about 20 homers which is totally fine for fantasy with the high average when he was stealing bases.
Yet, he’s only stolen 10 bases in over 200 games with the new rules and that’s untenable from a middle infield when constructing a roster. Part of that was likely this past season’s injuries, but his sprint speed hasn’t been above league average since 2021. Ironically, that was also the last and only time he’s stolen more than 20 bases in a season. The profile suddenly looks a lot like Ezequiel Tovar with a better approach or Carlos Correa with less power. That’s a difficult player to evaluate.
Moreover, this lineup could be ripe for opportunity, as it was during the second half, depending on how actively the Blue Jays add to this roster in the offseason.
As I mentioned before, Horwitz has likely earned himself a starting role at either second or first base. He played each evenly this season and can hang at both. The one caveat with the left-handed Horwitz are his extreme platoon splits – 147 wRC+ against righties and 53 wRC+ against lefties – that will limit him to being a strong-side platoon player.
Then there’s this melange of interesting yet flawed players like Addison Barger, Joey Loperfido, Nathan Lukes, Ernie Clement, Leo Jiménez, Will Wagner Davis Schneider and Jonatan Clase who will flank the regulars Guerrero, Bichette, Springer, Horwitz, and Daulton Varsho.
Barger and Loperfido have the best prospect pedigree and profiles, keep tabs on them with potential playing time in mind.
Oddly, there are practically no other major league caliber prospects in their system. Ricky Tiedemann is injured… again. Orelvis Martinez will start the season serving a suspension for PEDs. This farm system is bleak.
The one player that will likely make an impact is Jake Bloss. Acquired along with Loperfide in the Kikuchi trade, Bloss had a cup of coffee with the Astros before being moved. While his results weren’t great – a 6.94 ERA across 11 2/3 innings – he has a great slider, fine fastball, and was drafted just last year. He has some upside and a good chance to enter the season in Toronto’s starting pitching mix.
Key Free Agents
Ryn Yarbrough, if you’d count him as such.
Team Needs
First and foremost, bullpen. Romano is the expected closer but will be nearly 32 years old and coming off elbow surgery. Chad Green is still under contract and was fine in that role, but if they seriously want to compete they should probably throw big money at another high leverage arm or two.
Past that, they need bodies to fill out their roster. This is the last season both Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are under contract and the rest of the lineup is pretty paltry besides them. There’s room to upgrade at catcher, third base, second base, and across most of the outfield. Let’s see if they push the gas pedal to make it happen.