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Top Five NFL Injuries and Contingency Plans for Week 1

Higgins_USA.jpg

Higgins_USA.jpg

Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins (hamstring) vs. New England Patriots
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Cincinnati Bengals No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins was added to Thursday’s injury report with a hamstring strain after practicing Wednesday with a clean bill of health. Higgins told reporters on Thursday, that he is “just ready to get out there [and] put on a show for fans [in] Week 1,” but a mid-week addition to the injury report is never good, particularly for players with recurring soft tissue issues like Higgins.

Per Doctor of Physical Therapy (DPT) Jeff Mueller, this is Higgins’ eighth recorded hamstring strain since 2019, including four confirmed left leg strains. Per DPT Edwin Porras’ 2024 Injury Prone Draft Guide, hamstring strains carry a 30.0 percent weekly recurrence and a 34.0 percent season-to-season recurrence at the position. Higgins’ lengthy history increases his recurrence likelihood as well.

The Bengals’ wide receiver woes are compounded by No. 1 wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase’s hold-in, which may result in a limited snap count as the training staff puts Chase through a ramp-up period early in the season. Fortunately for the Bengals, they are currently -8.5-point home favorites and may be able to run out the clock via the ground game.

The offense needs full-time players for Week 1, regardless of game script, and second-year player Andrei Iosivas asserted himself as the No. 3 wide receiver over ballyhooed rookie Jermaine Burton in training camp. Iosivas would be a viable Week 1 flex option if Higgins is unable to play.

San Francisco 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles tendon) vs. New York Jets
Date/Time: Monday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers starting running back Christian McCaffrey was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice, evidently continuing his rehabilitation following his early August calf and Achilles tendon injury. McCaffrey also suffered a calf strain in Week 17 last season. The two issues could be unrelated though a recurrence is possible. In the latter scenario, the injury may need to be managed throughout the season.

The 49ers play on Monday night, making Thursday the team’s first official practice. McCaffrey’s early-week availability bodes positively for his Monday night availability but the late kickoff requires fantasy managers to plan ahead.

No. 2 running back Jordan Mason should be considered one of the highest-valued primary bellcow backups for Week 1 and beyond, making him a priority free agent pick up for all re-draft managers–not just those who already roster McCaffrey. Though Mason gets a statistical boost from his small rushing sample, he is a talented player in his own right. Among 77 NFL running backs with at least 85 rushing attempts from 2022 to 2023, Mason ties for 20th in missed tackles per rushing attempt (0.21) and ranks second in both yards after contact per rushing attempt (3.7) and yards per rushing attempt (5.6) per PFF. The 49ers’ status as -4.5-point home favorites bodes positively for Mason’s potential rushing volume.

Pittsburgh Steelers QB Russell Wilson (calf) @ Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson aggravated the calf strain that caused recurring issues this summer, jeopardizing his Week 1 availability. The 35-year-old is only a fantasy football starter in two-quarterback and superflex leagues but his absence creates a ripple effect that requires attention.

Backup quarterback Justin Fields delivered five, top-three positional finishes with the Chicago Bears last year thanks to his electric rushing ability. Among 35 NFL quarterbacks with at least 25 rushing attempts from Week 1 through Super Bowl LVIII, Fields’ 20.8% explosive run play rate on 125 rushing attempts ranks seventh per PFF. He is an automatic QB1 if Wilson is inactive.

Wilson’s absence would also reduce the Steelers’ No. 1 wide receiver George Pickens’ scoring potential in Arthur Smith’s already-unreliable offense. Fantasy managers should consider starting WR4s with matchup-based upside over Pickens in this scenario. Detroit Lions wide receiver Jameson Williams would be a player to consider in Pickens’ stead. Williams faces the Los Angeles Rams, who recently lost two of their top-four cornerbacks to injured reserve. A third cornerback is also questionable to play due to a hamstring strain.

Los Angeles Chargers WRs Josh Palmer (knee) & D.J. Chark (hip) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Los Angeles Chargers de facto No. 1 wide receiver/starting slot receiver Joshua Palmer was added to the injury report on Thursday, though the team lists him as a full participant. The time at which the injury occurred remains unclear, making Friday’s practice report critical for forecasting his Week 1 status. His limited injury history notably includes an October 2023, Grade 1 knee strain.

Chargers perimeter starter D.J. Chark failed to practice on both Wednesday and Thursday, making it unlikely he will suit up on Sunday.

Second-round rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey earned 158 targets in three seasons at Georgia. Among 86 Power Five wide receivers with at least 155 targets over the last three seasons, McConkey ranks 13th in yards per route run (2.54). He maintained a 23.3-plus-percent target rate each year, peaking at a respectable 25.0 percent in 2023. Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh may want to slow-play McConkey’s development but would ostensibly be forced to feature the 22-year-old wide receiver if Palmer is inactive.

Chicago Bears WR Keenan Allen (heel) vs. Tennessee Titans
Date/Time: Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Chicago Bears 34-year-old slot receiver Keenan Allen logged limited participant designations on Wednesday and Thursday, dealing with an apparent heel injury. Allen notably sat out his 2023 Los Angeles Chargers’ final four games with a heel injury so the potentially recurring issue could lead to workload management in 2024.

If Allen is inactive on Sunday, first-round rookie wide receiver Rome Odunze would rise to must-start status as a high-end WR3. If Allen is active but the coaching staff reveals a load management plan, limiting Allen to a sub-full-time role, Odunze’s season-long target share projections would rise considerably.

Allen could also simply miss time due to the issue, down the road.

It may be counterintuitive to trade for Odunze before Week 1 kicks off but given Allen’s increasing pitfall potential, fantasy managers may be looking at a buy-low opportunity for the talented rookie. Acquire Odunze, if you can.