Michigan is dealing with the hangover from their epic 2023 National Championship run, as Michigan’s 74th ranked SP+ offense is dragging down the team’s prospects. They’re coming off two disappointing road losses to @Washington (27-17) and @Illinois (21-7) after barely scraping by Minnesota and USC by the same 27-24 three-point margin. Their unsettled three-QB rotation can be blamed for a lot of the team’s woes, but it’s still jarring to see a blue chip program like Michigan rank dead last nationally (135th) in passing explosiveness. On the other side of the ball, their run defense is one of the best in the country while the Wolverines’ pass defense ranks 40th in success rate allowed which is down a notch from their top flight 2023 unit.
New HC Jonathan Smith had the Spartans off to a brisk start, going 3-0 with a quality 27-24 victory over Big Ten foe @Maryland. They dumped a 23-19 decision to @Boston College (18% win expectancy) before getting rolled by Ohio State and @Oregon to even their record at 3-3 heading into last week’s showdown against Iowa. MSU responded with an emphatic 32-20 win where the offense accrued 468 total yards and 27 first downs while averaging 5.3 yards per rush for 212 yards on the ground. While MSU ranks 29th in defensive SP+, their 101st ranked offense has been plagued by 15 turnovers (122nd) and a 38.5% red zone TD rate that ranks 131st in FBS.
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Game details and how to watch 2024 Michigan State @ Michigan live
· Date: Saturday, October 26, 2024
· Time: 7:30 PM EST
· Site: Michigan Stadium
· City: Ann Arbor, MI
· TV/Streaming: BTN
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Game odds for Michigan State @ Michigan - Week 9
The latest odds as of Wednesday afternoon:
- Moneyline: Michigan (-175), Michigan State (+145)
- Spread: Michigan -3.5
- Over/Under: 40.5 points
This line actually opened at Michigan -24.5 points in the post spring way-lookahead markets, which is an absolutely stupendous value given the current -3.5 to -4.5 range it’s trading at currently. You can still find MSU at the +180 moneyline opening line, but it’s down as low as +135 in some spots. Michigan is hovering around -182 with a high of -220. The game total dropped at 41.5 but is down slightly to -40.5 across the board.
NBC Sports Bet Best Bet
NBC Sports Betting Analyst Eric Froton (@CFFroton) thinks points could be hard to come by:“Each team is turnover prone, which often leads to scores, and Michigan State has cleared this very low 40.5-point total in every game against a Power Four conference opponent this year. Aside from their 21-7 stinker against Illinois, Michigan had cleared 40.5 points in their last five contests. I’m holding my nose and taking the Over 40.5 game total.”
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From the Trading Desk at BetMGM courtesy of John Ewing: Heisman Trophy
Line movement (open, current)
· Ashton Jeanty +5000, +200
· Cam Ward +20000, +240
· Travis Hunter +3500, +1800
Highest Ticket%
· Travis Hunter 16.5%
· Nico Iamaleava 9.2%
· Cam Ward 8.4%
Highest Handle%
· Travis Hunter 31.2%
· Ashton Jeanty 11.3%
· Cam Ward 8.8%
Biggest Liability
· Travis Hunter
· Ashton Jeanty
· Nico Iamaleava
Quarterback matchup for Michigan State @ Michigan
- Michigan: The quarterback three-man-weave between Davis Warren, Alex Orji and Jack Tuttle has fueled the rapid descent of Michigan’s once-formidable offense. Warren completed 67% of his passes, but also posted a horrid 2-to-6 TD/INT ratio while averaging a team-low 3.1 yards per pass attempt. Orji was notably less effective and produced just 148 passing yards on 43 attempts before mercifully being pulled in favor of Indiana transfer Jack Tuttle. Tuttle was barely serviceable the last two weeks completing 60% of his passes, but allowing a dreadful 50% pressure-to-sack rate. Tuttle is slated to start for a second straight week, but the situation is very fluid with the position lacking any semblance of a deep passing attack.
- Michigan State: QB Aiden Chiles transferred over with HC Jonathan Smith as part of the Oregon State-to-Michigan State offseason transition. He is having trouble adjusting to the strength of Big Ten defenses, completing 58.7% of his throws with a terrible 9-to-18 big time throw-to-turnover worthy play rate. His lack of polish really shows when the field is shortened, with MSU ranking 128th in points per scoring opportunity (3.25) and 131st in red zone touchdown rate (38.5%) to go with nine interceptions. While his 66th percentile PFF passing grade leaves much to be desired, Chiles has been adept at using his legs to extend plays and scramble for extra yardage, as his 81.3 PFF run grade will attest. Chiles has a long way to go to proved he can be a complete Big Ten quarterback, but the potential is there.
Spartans and Wolverines: Trends & recent stats
- Michigan has thrown for 898 passing yards in seven games this year, sixth-worst among FBS programs. Michigan State is allowing just 192 passing yards per game, 30th-best among FBS defenses.
- Michigan is a shocking 1-6 ATS thus far with an average “cover” points per game average of -7.8 points (118th). Despite their awful ATS record and anemic offense, UM is still 4-3 to the Over.
- In addition to their offensive turnover issues, Michigan State is posting a middlingl 45% rushing success rate (66th) in addition to the 86th overall EPA/rush rating in FBS.
- MSU’s defensive line ranks 38th in sacks per dropback (7%) and 36th in DL havoc rate, but their overall 85% tackle success rate ranks a dismal 113th nationally.
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Expert picks & predictions for Michigan State @ Michigan
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, betting trends, and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Saturday’s game between Michigan State and Michigan:
· Moneyline: NBC Sports is leaning heavily towards a play on Michigan on the Moneyline
· Spread: NBC Sports is staying away from a play against the Spread
· Total: NBC Sports is staying away from a play on the Total of 40.5
Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.
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- Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
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- Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
- Brad Thomas (@MrBradThomas)
- Eric Froton (@CFFroton)
