As stolen bases continue to rise league wide, I will be here every Wednesday to help you track important stolen base trends so you can find more speed for your fantasy teams.
Stealing a base is as much about the opposing pitcher and catcher as it is the base runner themselves. So, being able to spot which teams and pitchers specifically are being run on most often will help you to figure out who can steal a heap of bases over the next week.
Last week, we identified the Rangers as a team to target when searching for stolen bases and the Cubs have run wild against them over the past few days.
Before we get to this week’s important trends, here is the stolen base leaderboard over the past seven days.
Cubs Nico Hoerner, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and Jon Berti stand out from this list. Also, it’s nice to see Jazz Chisholm Jr., Trea Turner, and Jose Altuve get their wheels churning.
Now, here is the overall stolen base leaderboard on the season.
Kyren Paris and Jake Mangum are my favorite names to watch here. They’ve shown a willingness to run in the early part of the season and should each have firm starting roles for the foreseeable future.
Next, here are some players with no stolen bases that we’d hoped would be more aggressive.
Now, let’s go over the most important stolen base trends over the past week.
The Yankees are Running?
After stealing the eighth-fewest bases in the league over the past two seasons, the Yankees are finally getting aggressive on the basepaths. Prior to this year, they’d been one of the least athletic teams in the league and weren’t able to take advantage of the new rules like everyone else. That’s no longer the case though.
Chisholm Jr. has swiped his first four bags of the season over his last six games. Ben Rice has chipped in two steals to go with his hot start at the plate. Even Aaron Judge has stolen two bags himself.
Most of these stolen bases were concentrated last weekend during their three-game series with the Pirates. They were 2-for-2 on stolen base attempts - with Rice and Judge successfully swiping a bag each – off the battery of Mitch Keller and Joey Bart. Rice and Anthony Volpe each attempted another steal late in that game, but Bart threw them out.
Chisholm himself stole two more bases Saturday against Bailey Falter, a reliever, and Endy Rodriguez while Cody Bellinger and Jasson Dominguez each stole another base Sunday with Bart back behind the plate.
It seems like the Yankees are planning to run more this season and that they felt very comfortable running when Bart was behind the plate.
J.T. Realmuto Still Has It
No catcher has been run on more frequently this season than Realmuto. Opponents have attempted 13 stolen bases against him, one more each than Bart, Danny Jansen of the Rays, and Shea Langeliers of the Athletics.
While the rest of those catchers have allowed at least an 80% success rate, Realmuto has thrown out five of those would-be base stealers. He’s joined by William Contreras, Austin Wells, and Salvador Perez as catchers who’ve caught at least 60 innings this season and thrown out more than half of the runners that have tried to steal off them.
A stolen base is more about the pitcher than the catcher though and some Phillies pitchers who’ve struggled the most with players stealing against them, Jesus Luzardo and Jordan Romano, have attempted eight and four pick-off attempts respectively.
Luzardo’s eight throws over are tied for second most in the league after the Dodgers attempted six stolen bases against him and Philly’s bullpen last Friday night. Of those six, just three were successful and Luzardo picked another off as well.
Realmuto is still a high-end defensive catcher with near league best arm strength and the Phillies’ staff is helping him out with added awareness to base runners.
Fantasy Baseball Stolen Base Targets
I mentioned last week that the Marlins, Rangers, Rays, and Braves seem to be marks for teams to run on. The Braves are likely to be crossed off that list with Sean Murphy back from injury. The Pirates seem to be an emerging target too, as I talked about earlier, as well as the Athletics.
They faced the Cubs this past week and Hoerner, Crow-Armstrong, and Berti ran wild against them.
Once again, Shea Langeliers has seen the second most stolen base attempts against him in the league this season and thrown out just one would-be culprit.
Osvaldo Bido has been on the mound for most of those attempts with four successful steals and none caught. Jeffrey Springs has had two bases stolen on him as well along with a slew of relievers who’ve given up one.
The kicker? The Athletics haven’t attempted a pick-off throw all season. None. They’ve had a handful of disengagements from the rubber, but no formal throws over.
That puts Langeliers in a difficult position to throw runners out. They are getting big leads and good jumps since his pitchers are paying them little mind. That’s how even with one of the strongest arms for any catcher in the league he is being picked on.
Without a meaningful change in how the A’s hold runners on they are worth targeting in the search for more stolen bases.
