The unofficial start of the horse racing season kicks off Saturday on NBC and Peacock with the $4.5 million Pegasus World Cup Series, from Gulfstream Park.
What started as a single dirt race seven years ago has morphed into a 3-race series including two turf races - a $500k race restricted to female horses, and a $1 million race open to all genders. From a racing standpoint, Pegasus Day has steadily increased in prestige since its first-ever running and has turned into one of South Florida’s premier parties as well.
Star DJ Calvin Harris will perform once the day has ended, but before then, we have the Pegasus Dirt and Pegasus Turf races, both of which can be seen live as mentioned on NBC from 4:30-6pm.
As always, my wagering recommendations are dependent on the toteboard – if a horse dips below what I perceive to be fair value, I will pass on making the bet.
PEGASUS WORLD CUP TURF
GULFSTREAM PARK, SATURDAY RACE 12
POST TIME: 4:55PM ET
In its short history, the Pegasus Turf has usually had a full, evenly matched field that lacks a little in star power. But the stars have come out this year, as #9 Warm Heart, from the stable of top European trainer Aidan O’Brien, and #3 Integration, trained by Shug McGaughey, are probably the two most talented horses to run in this race since Bricks and Mortar won in the inaugural running in 2019.
I think these two are far and away the best horses in the field, and it’s hard to see anyone else winning. Warm Heart is very talented, as evidenced by her 2nd place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf back in November. I just think this distance of 1 1/8 miles is a little short for her, and that leaves the door open for my top pick, Integration.
Integration’s tour-de-force win in the G2 Hill Prince at Aqueduct last time out was one of the most visually impressive performances by any horse in 2023, regardless of age or surface. He showed some fantastic acceleration to kick clear at the top of the stretch in that race. The crazy thing is I don’t even think jockey Kendrick Carmouche asked him for his best. Some bettors might be scared off by his inexperience, as this is only his 4th career start. I think, however, we are witnessing a future star in the making. As a result, this might be the final time in his career that a win bet on him will have any sort of value.
THE PLAY:
WIN: #3 INTEGRATION, AT 5/2 or HIGHER
PEGASUS WORLD CUP INV.
GULFSTREAM PARK, SATURDAY RACE 13
POST TIME: 5:40PM ET
This is a very difficult race to handicap. Most will agree that #7 National Treasure and #8 First Mission are the two most talented horses in the field, but can they really be trusted to win this race at a short price? My vote is no – National Treasure’s only 2 wins in his career have come wire-to-wire, and I just do not see him getting the early lead here over #4 Hoist the Gold, who is a sprinter. Meanwhile, the connections of First Mission have been singing his praises since he won the G3 Lexington at Keeneland last spring. But I don’t think any of his performances on the track have lived up to those lofty expectations, and for me, he still has a lot to prove. He can win, and if he does, so be it. But I want to shop around for a horse that will be at least 10-1.
The problem is…none of the horses in that price range really get me excited. #4 Hoist the Gold is coming off the best race of his life, but that performance was aided by a wet track and a ridiculous track bias at Aqueduct that day. Another horse that seems to be hitting peak form is #2 O’Connor, but I do not want to take a closer in a Grade 1 at Gulfstream since the track orientation puts those kinds of runners at a major disadvantage.
I decided to go with #9 Grand Aspen as my pick. It is not my strongest wagering opinion of all time, but there are some things to like about this horse. First, I expect him to get the same exact trip as Art Collector did in winning this race last year– he should be stalking the leaders in 3rd or 4th before taking over at the top of the stretch. His last race, in the Harlan’s Holiday at Gulfstream, was a career-best performance, but he’s still so lightly raced that I think he has another step forward in him. But horses exiting the Harlan’s Holiday have not fared well in the Pegasus, so I want to make sure I am getting good value.
THE PLAY:
WIN: #9 Grand Aspen, at 10-1 or higher
Ahmed Fareed hosts Saturday afternoon’s coverage on NBC and Peacock alongside analyst and Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Bailey, analyst Randy Moss, reporters Britney Eurton and Nick Luck, and handicapper Matt Bernier.
Best of luck with all your bets this weekend!
