Atlanta Braves
2024 record: 89-73
Second place NL East
Team ERA: 3.49 (1st in MLB)
Team OPS: .724 (12th in MLB)
What Went Right
The Braves were the odds-on World Series favorite last March, but saw their season go sideways quickly due to a litany of injuries to key players. Yet, many things still broke right for this eventual Wild Card squad.
Mainly, Chris Sale returned to form as a true, front-line ace and will likely win the NL Cy Young award. He threw his most innings (177 2/3) since 2017 – his first year as a Red Sox – while also recording his lowest ERA (2.38) and WHIP (1.01) since 2018. Also, his strikeouts rate climbed above 30% for the first time since 2019. However, he eventually hit a wall when some vague ‘back spasms’ held him out of the final two weeks of the season after his velocity fell sharply in what wound up as his last start of the season on September 19th.
The rest of the Braves’ rotation surprisingly made up one of the best staffs in the league and led them to their unlikely playoff berth.
Reynaldo López pitched as a full-time starter for the first time since 2019 and recorded a 1.99 ERA over 135 2/3 innings pitched.
Max Fried had another strong season and will give Atlanta a lot to think about this winter as he hits free agency.
Spencer Schwellenbach broke out in a huge way with 127 strikeouts (25.4 K%) and a 3.35 ERA across 123 2/3 innings as a rookie after starting the season in High-A.
Even Charlie Morton dragged his 40-year-old self to a league-average ERA over 165 1/3 innings in his up-and-down season as their fifth starter.
The success of this rotation was aided by closer Raisel Iglesias who had one of the best seasons of his career as a 34-year-old. He had a stretch from June 17th to September 15th where he didn’t allow an earned run and finished the year with a 1.95 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, and 34 saves on the year. That’s pure dominance at the back of the bullpen.
Oddly enough, Atlanta’s healthy regulars struggled for much of the year besides for Marcell Ozuna. He was their only hitter with more than 250 plate appearances whose wRC+ was over 120. He fell one homer shy of back-to-back 40 home run seasons, went over 100 RBI, and hit over .300 for the first time since 2017.
Apart from Ozuna, some of the Braves’ parade of veterans put together solid stretches and helped fuel their second half run.
Ramon Laureano had a genuine resurgence and was a key contributor down the stretch. He put together a .296/.327/.505 slash line with 10 homers and five stolen bases in 67 games. That was aided by a .380 BABIP though.
Jorge Soler came back to life after the Braves acquired him at the trade deadline with a 135 wRC+, .849 OPS, and 10 homers in 49 games. Something in that Atlanta air will always send him on a tear.
What Went Wrong
While the season wound up a measured success, serious injuries to key players was an undertone to it all. Namely, Ronald Acuña Jr. tearing his second ACL in three years and Spencer Strider undergoing season-ending elbow surgery. One could have argued they were the best position player and pitcher, respectively, heading into the season. Neither stepped on the field after June 1st.
Apart from those two, injuries took large chunks out of Austin Riley’s, Ozzie Albies’, Michael Harris’ and Sean Murphy’s disappointing campaigns.
Riley was on the schneid well into the year and had just three homers and a 74 wRC+ entering play on June 14th. He went on a tear from that point on with 16 homers and a 156 wRC+ in 57 games until he broke his hand in August.
Albies meandered through what became his least productive season and missed two full months with a wrist fracture.
Despite his injury, Harris’ regression emphasized many of the fears regarding his long term potential. He struggled, again, picking up breaking balls, chased pitches out of the zone at one of the highest rates in the league, and was somehow worse at attacking hittable pitches. He did improve his pull rate and caught fire after returning from a hamstring strain that cost him two months. Who knows, perhaps that hot streak would have come much earlier if he never got hurt and we’d be talking about his season much differently.
Murphy fell apart completely. He strained his oblique on opening day and never found even a semblance of the player he’d been to this point in his career. Of all players with at least 250 plate appearances, his .192 average was 12th lowest in the league and his .284 on-base percentage and 78 wRC+ were a far cry from his career averages. It got so bad that he eventually ceded most of his playing time to Travis d’Arnaud by midseason.
Then there’s Matt Olson. He wasn’t even a league average hitter at the All-Star break with a 97 wRC+, .227 BA, and .309 OBP. The second half was more kind and he snapped back into the 2023 version of himself, but the season was disappointing overall.
Lastly, Jarred Kelenic remained the player he’s always been after a moment of success. The swing and miss that consistently holds him back remains, he has no clue how to attack left-handed pitching, and was below average defensively. Kelenic couldn’t even hold onto a part-time spot by late summer even with all the flux and injuries this roster dealt with.
Fantasy Slants
Acuña and Strider will each be some of the most fascinating players to monitor as draft season comes around. We’ve already seen Acuña recover from a torn ACL and put together one of the most productive fantasy seasons of all time. Although, that came a full year after he came back last time and there’s virtually no precedent for a player of his caliber tearing each ACL.
Strider avoided a second Tommy John surgery by getting an internal brace in his right elbow since it was reported his tear wasn’t pronounced. That means he could conceivably be back and pitching before Memorial Day. Proceed with caution though as the recovery from said internal brace procedure is a relative unknown compared to how commonplace Tommy John surgery has become.
Sale will be expected to be an ace once again yet Fried, who is steady as a rock, could very well be on a new team in the coming months. Not to mention the clock finally (probably) striking midnight on Morton’s career. That will put a lot on the shoulders of both Schwellenbach and López to build on their strong seasons.
The sky could be the limit for Schwellenbach who flashed dominance on the back of a plus fastball and slider which he supplemented well with a cutter, curveball, sinker, and splitter. The willingness to mix six pitches – with two being outstanding – and poise he showed jumping from High-A to the majors hints at the possibility of a future ace.
López will regress some, but there also seems to be an above-average starting pitcher here. His slider remained elite and he re-introduced his curveball as a necessary weapon to attack left-handed batters. The midseason right shoulder inflammation that landed him on the IL was concerning until he came back in September still throwing in the upper 90s and being as effective as he was early on.
Grant Holmes could prove to be the wild card in this rotation. The career minor leaguer who bears a shocking resemblance to the illustrious Kenny Powers excelled in relief after debuting and was passable in a handful of spot starts he made while the Braves’ rotation was in shambles midseason. He has two plus breaking balls and is a candidate to soak up some innings towards the back of this rotation ahead of the ever-disappointing Bryce Elder depending on how much Atlanta decides to add this off-season. Keep an eye on him in your deep leagues.
Iglesias proved to still be a stud and will likely be one of the first relief pitchers drafted in most leagues. Just be advised his strikeout dipped some.
Riley and Olson snapped out of their early season funks enough to be considered safe targets again. Olson has more relative concern though, as seemed to focus much more on hitting pitches up in the zone that he lost sight of low pitches which are ordinarily his bread and butter.
Harris could still snap to and be one of the best overall players in fantasy at any given moment. He could also go through prolonged cold streaks as he did this past year. Any skills change would be monumental. Similar goes for Albies, who likely won’t undergo a massive skill upgrade at this point in his career but can and likely will still put up massive counting stats from a second base position that is astoundingly weak.
Murphy could wind up being a massive bargain due to an oblique injury that we can tell ourselves lingered most of the season. His year was such an outlier relative to his career that there’s no reason to vilify him for it, especially with a serious injury that would hurt him as a hitter if he returned too soon.
Key Free Agents
Max Fried, Marcell Ozuna (club option), Travis d’Arnaud (club), Charlie Morton, Adam Duvall, Whit Merrifield, AJ Minter, Gio Urshela, AJ Minter (club)
Team Needs
A new trainer? Better luck? If the Braves head into the season with no additions and clean bills of health across the board they will once again have one of the best rosters in baseball.
That being said, it doesn’t seem likely that Sale gets through another season as healthy as he was and there’s no guarantee they get top level production from Strider and Acuña after such serious surgeries.
Really, they need Olson, Riley, Ozuna, Albies and Harris to carry the load on offense while seeking an upgrade at shortstop for Orlando Arcia who proved to be one of the worst hitters in baseball after consecutive league average seasons. That’s their most obvious spot to upgrade along with depth in the outfield and their starting rotation.
