2023 Stats (rank)
Points per game: 23.6 (9th)
Total yards per game: 337.2 (14th)
Plays per game: 65.9 (4th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 37.7 (11th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.05 (15th)
Rush attempts per game: 28.2 (10th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.11 (19th)
Coaching Staff
New Orleans Saints brass revamped the offense this offseason, replacing stagnant offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael Jr. with last year’s San Francisco 49ers passing game coordinator Klint Kubiak. Long-steeped in the famed Shanahan-Kubiak offense that relies on play-action passing, motion and zone rushing, Kubiak, inked to his deal on Valentine’s Day 2024, brings a fresh philosophy to town. Rick Dennison coached under Klint’s father Gary Kubiak in three separate stints across multiple organizations. He was hired as a senior offensive assistant two days after Kubiak. John Benton was later brought in to coach the offensive line after holding the same role with Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco squad from 2017-2020 before assuming the the New York Jets’ offensive line coach and run game coordinator roles under Shanahan offshoot, Robert Saleh, from 2021-2022. Carmichael’s inefficient 2023 offense ranks dead last in play-action passing rate (14.4 percent), 30th in regular season motion use (366 offensive snaps), tenth in outside zone run-play rate (32.1 percent) and 22nd in inside zone run-play rate (16.0 percent). Kubiak called plays in Weeks 11-18, 2022 for Nathaniel Hackett’s flailing Denver Broncos offense before jumping ship and heading to San Francisco. He employed a 21.0-plus percent play-action passing rate with both teams. The Denver unit ranks 19th in outside zone run-play rate (24.3 percent) and 11th in inside zone run-play rate (23.3 percent) while the San Francisco unit ranks top five in both regular season motion snaps (753) and pass-play motion (354). Fantasy managers should expect Kubiak to run a fantasy-friendly offense in 2024.
Passing Game
QB: Derek Carr, Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener
WR: Chris Olave, Cedrick Wilson Jr.
WR: Rashid Shaheed, Bub Means, Equanimeous St. Brown
WR: A.T. Perry, Mason Tipton
TE: Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Foster Moreau, Dallin Holker
Kubiak told WWL Radio back in May, “I think Derek is a really good athlete. I think he’s extremely accurate with the ball.” It was a telling statement. Kubiak was referring to Carr’s play-action passing game tape, not his standard dropbacks. While it is true that Carr maintains top-end accuracy on non-play-action passes, he does so by being a timid short-area passer. Start the play with a run fake and get Carr’s feet moving, and he transforms into a daring and accurate deep-ball slinger. The table below ranks in parentheses Carr’s play-action passing data among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 70 qualifying dropbacks and Carr’s non-play-action passing data among 32 NFL quarterbacks with at least 215 qualifying dropbacks.
Carr should be treated as a matchup-based QB1 with Kubiak running the show. No. 1 wide receiver Chris Olave respectively finished as the points-per-reception (PPR) WR25 and WR16 in his first two NFL seasons. He is primed for a top-12 positional finish, with top-five potential, entering year three. Among 34 NFL wide receivers with at least 195 targets over the last two seasons, Olave ranks seventh or better in target rate (25.9 percent), deep-target rate (23.4 percent), yards per route run (YPRR, 2.23) and average depth of target (aDOT, 14.3). Olave thrives in any environment but his ninth-ranked 2.06 YPRR average on non-play-action targets (34 NFL wide receivers, min. 150 targets) jumps to a fifth-ranked 3.35-yard average on play-action targets (36 NFL wide receivers, min. 40 targets). The expected play-calling changes should lead to a career-best performance.
With wide receiver Michael Thomas no longer on the team, fellow third-year wide receiver Rashid Shaheed is due for a breakout season. Shaheed was a four-time all-American returner at Weber State and in his final 2021 college season, he took home first-team Big Sky Conference honors as both a punt and kickoff returner and second-team Big Sky Conference honors as a wide receiver. His open-field skills quickly translated to NFL success, yielding 2023 first-team All-Pro and Pro Bowl punt return nods, along with a quietly efficient receiving profile. Among 81 NFL wide receivers with at least 100 targets over the last two years, Shaheed ranks 27th in YPRR (1.95), 20th in explosive pass-play rate (36.5 percent), sixth in deep-target rate (26.7 percent) and third in yards per reception (16.3). The NFL’s new kickoff rules could provide Shaheed a sneaky boost in leagues that award points for return-game production. He is a matchup-based flex option with weekly WR3 potential.
Fifth-round rookie Bub Means could push second-year wide receiver A.T. Perry for field-stretching best ball value but neither player is likely to command a re-draft-friendly role.
Tight end Juwan Johnson underwent foot surgery on June 10th, giving the team’s highest-paid undrafted free agent rookie, tight end Dallin Holke, room to work in the offense. Holker (6-foot-3, 241 pounds) broke out at Colorado State last year, leading FBS tight ends in targets (105), receptions (64) and receiving yards (766). He was a finalist for the John Mackey Award but came up short. Johnson is expected to return before the season kickoffs but his career-best 508 single-season receiving yards in 2022 hardly pen a strong case for the unquestioned, No. 1 receiving tight end role. Holker’s summer progress should be closely monitored.
Offensive weapon Taysom Hill remains an efficient player entering his age-34 season. His 1.30 YPRR tie for 21st among 40 NFL tight ends with at least 35 targets last year and his rushing productivity fares well when compared to the running back position. Among 56 NFL running backs and tight ends with at least 80 rushing attempts, he ties for 33rd in missed tackles forced per rushing attempt (0.16), 24th in yards after contact per rushing attempt (2.9) and ranks seventh in yards per rushing attempt (5.0). Hill’s 44.4 percent green zone first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate even ranks third among 30 tight ends and running backs with at least 15 such rushing attempts. Hill’s usage as a motion weapon should cause headaches for opposing defensive coordinators. He is a TE1 candidate with helpful positional flexibility.
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Running Game
RB: Alvin Kamara, Kendre Miller, Jamaal Williams
OL (L-R): Trevor Penning, Nick Saldiveri, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, Taliese Fuaga
New Orleans’ offensive line is in flux. Incumbent left tackle Treover Penning has yet to return value on his 2022 first-round draft capital and NewOrleans.Football’s Nick Underhill recently reported that stalwart right tackle Ryan Ramczyk is expected to miss the full 2024-2025 NFL season, unable to once again play through the pain caused by deteriorating knee cartilage. The coaching staff will likely giving first-round rookie Taliese Fuaga every opportunity to transition from right tackle to left tackle but his training camp performance must be so strong it assuages concerns over playing the underwhelming Penning out of position. Center Erik McCoy is the group’s shining star. His 89.4 PFF run-blocking grade ranks third among starting centers.
New Orleans’ front office spent a 2023 third-round pick on former TCU running back Kendre Miller but volatile showings and four lower-body injuries in an 11-month span limited him to just eight games last year. He tantalized viewers in the regular season finale though, forcing five missed tackles on just 13th rushing attempts, averaged 3.8 yards after contact per rushing attempt and punched in a three-yard rushing score.
Veteran running backs Alvin Kamara and Jamaal Williams both produced two career-rushing-lows last year; Kamara with his 0.12 missed tackles forced per rushing attempt and 2.5 yards after contact per rushing attempt and Williams with his 2.9 yards per rushing attempt and 2.3 yards after contact per rushing attempt.
Kamara did manage to produce two career-highs as a pass catcher though, delivering a 32.0 percent target rate and an 87.2 percent catch rate. He remained efficient from a yardage standpoint as well, averaging a top-three 1.73 YPRR, ranked among 32 NFL running backs with at least 40 targets.
The backfield’s current dynamics leave Miller as the fulcrum. Should he rise to the occasion in the preseason, he can secure the lead rushing role in Kubiak’s expectedly brilliant scheme, pushing Kamara into the high-end RB2 ranks. Should Miller flop, Kamara will remain a volume-based RB1 with Williams functioning as an unappetizing RB2 in Zero RB roster builds. Miller is a volatile RB2/3 candidate.
Head coach Dennis Allen layered compliments with critiques when asked about Miller’s spring training camp showing, indicating Kamara and Williams likely still hold the Nos. 1 and 2 roles.
Win Total
New Orleans’ DraftKings win total Over/Under is installed at a beatable 7.5. NFL schedule guru Warren Sharp projects them to face the NFL’s fifth-softest schedule in his 2024 Football Preview. Opponents like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers will be tough to beat but matchups against the Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders, New York Giants and Washington Commanders offer lay-up opportunities. New Orleans may not rise to double-digit wins but securing eight or nine should be doable.
