2023 Stats (rank)
Offensive Summary
Points per game: 13.9 (31st)
Total yards per game: 276.2 (30th)
Plays per game: 60 (28th)
Pass Attempts + Sacks per game: 35.6 (19th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.23 (31st)
Rush attempts per game: 24.4 (26th)
Rush EPA per play: -0.13 (22nd)
Coaching Staff
Bill Belichick abdicated his 24-year tenure as the New England Patriots head coach and de facto general manager this offseason, prompting owner Robert Kraft to promote from within. Former New England player (2008-2015) and linebackers coach (2019-2023) Jerod Mayo was hired as head coach while Eliot Wolf lept from director of scouting (2022-2023) to executive vice president of player personnel. New England formalized its relationship with Wolf after a 2020-2021 front office consulting stint. The duo hired former Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, a 2023 convert to three-wide receiver-set base formations (11 personnel), to serve the same role before hiring Ben McAdoo as a senior offensive assistant five days later. McAdoo’s 2015 and 2016 New York Giants regular season offenses helped incite today’s 11 personnel fervor, leading the NFL in 11 personnel snap counts both years.
McAdoo’s hiring suggests New England will embrace a fast-paced, pass-heavy approach while keeping boxes relatively light for the run game. Van Pelt’s 2023 Cleveland offense also led the NFL in offensive plays per game (72.9), ranked sixth in play-action passing rate (27.1 percent) and utilized a near-league-average 60.7 percent passing rate in one-score games. This signals a significant departure from Belichick’s 2023 offense, which ranks 29th in 11 personnel snaps (529), second in two-tight end (12 personnel) snaps (410), 30th in offensive plays per game (61.8) and 26th in play-action passing rate (19.4 percent). New England’s corresponding 60.5 percent passing rate finished one spot behind Cleveland. Van Pelt and McAdoo are attempting to create a quarterback-friendly environment for journeyman Jacoby Brissett and first-round rookie Drake Maye.
Passing Game
QB: Drake Maye, Jacoby Brissett
WR: Ja’Lynn Polk, K.J. Osborn
WR: Kendrick Bourne, Javon Baker
WR: Demario Douglas, JuJu Smith-Schuster
TE: Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Jaheim Bell
Maye will reportedly be forced to convincingly beat out Brissett in training camp if he wants to start in Week 1. Brissett functioned as Van Pelt’s Weeks 1-12 starter in Cleveland’s 2022 season, producing a career-best 4.5 percent big-time-throw rate and his second-best completion rate (64.0 percent), returning low-end QB2 weekly value. Brissett’s teammates, wide receiver Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku, respectively averaged top-15 and top-seven positional points-per-reception (PPR) weekly point totals during that span. Should Brissett prevail in camp, he and Van Pelt should be able to at least partially replicate their past successes.
Maye proved himself a capable and aggressive passer as North Carolina’s starting quarterback from 2022-2023. Among 36 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 600 dropbacks over the last two seasons, he ranks 12th in adjusted completion rate (75.4 percent), 11th in yards per passing attempt (8.4), seventh in turnover-worthy-play rate (2.2 percent), second in average depth of target (aDOT, 10.7) and first in big-time-throw rate (8.1 percent). Maye boasts a 1.8 percent gulf between him and the next qualifying passer in the latter statistic.
Maye’s most fantasy-friendly aspect is his nose for the first-down marker. His 127 scrambles over the last two years rank No. 1 at the position and among 21 Power Five quarterbacks with at least 50 scrambles during that span, he ranks eighth in yards after contact per scramble (4.0) and fifth in first-down and/or touchdown conversion rate (45.7 percent). He possesses week-winning upside as a chain-moving, positively volatile performer.
Slot receiver Demario Douglas efficiently earned targets and frustrated defenders as a slippery post-catch producer in his 2023 rookie season while leading the team with 76 targets. Among 32 NFL slot receivers with at least 205 slot-receiving snaps, Douglas ranks 12th or better in aDOT (9.4), yards per route run (YPRR, 1.67), yards after the catch per reception (5.8), target rate (23.0 percent) and deep-target rate (19.6 percent). He even tied for 15th in contested catch rate (40.0 percent) despite a 5-foot-8, 192-pound frame. Douglas (24.3 percent target rate) notably out-earned last year’s de facto No. 1 wide receiver Kendrick Bourne (23.4 percent target rate) in Weeks 1-8, prior to Bourne’s season-ending ACL tear. Douglas’ failure to find the end zone likely helps depress his average draft position (ADP) well into home-league draft season, providing savvy managers a potential WR3 buy-low opportunity entering year two.
Bourne returns from ACL reconstruction (ACLR) in his age-29 season with talented rookies Ja’Lynn Polk (second-round draft pick) and Javon Baker (fourth-round draft pick) now in the fold, lessening his grip on a starting role. Polk profiles as a modern-day No. 1 wide receiver, capable of lining up in the slot and on the perimeter while Baker excels on the outside. The two pair well with Maye as downfield ball-winners. Among 68 Power Five wide receivers with at least 75 targets, Polk’s 25.9 percent deep-target rate ranks 11th and his 16.8 yards per reception rank 12th. Baker’s 35.7 percent deep-target rate ties for second and his 3.21 YPRR ranks sixth. Both players’ big-play potential puts them on the flex radar with Maye under center. Bourne has never earned 75 targets in an NFL regular season. He may hold off Baker for a time but Polk should quickly overtake him as the passing game alpha. If Baker starts off as a rotational player, it stands to reason his opportunities will increase whenever Maye takes over. Backup JuJu Smith-Schuster averaged less than 1.10 YPRR for the second time in three years last year and K.J. Osborn averaged a career-low 0.97. Neither are serious threats to the starters’ target shares.
New England added seventh-round rookie Jaheim Bell to the tight end room, which could hurt Hunter Henry’s matchup-based viability. Bell averaged top-eight marks in YPRR (1.97), missed tackles forced (0.31) and yards after the catch per reception (8.1) last year, ranked among 34 Power Five tight ends with at least 40 targets. Henry hit career-lows in both YPRR (1.13) and yards after the catch per reception (1.8) and has notably finished below a 56.0 PFF run-blocking grade in consecutive seasons, jeopardizing his access to play-action passing snaps. Bell conversely earned a 64.0 PFF run-blocking grade last year, the 10th-best among 57 Power Five tight ends with at least 450 offensive snaps. Bell could be worth a late-round dart throw, pending training camp reports.
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Running Game
RB: Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, Kevin Harris
OL (L-R): Chukwuma Okorafor, Cole Strange, David Andrews, Sidy Sow, Mike Onwenu
Injuries shuffled New England’s offensive line roles last year but the unit ultimately returns four-of-five starters, including three promising players, age 26 or younger. The group should hold its own against most teams, although left tackle Chukwuma Okorafor is a downgrade.
Prior to Rhamondre Stevenson’s season-ending Week 13 high-ankle sprain, Stevenson and then-No. 2 running back Ezekiel Elliott respectively handled 58.2 percent and 41.8 percent rushing shares, while splitting third- and fourth-and-long snaps 68.4 percent to 31.6 percent and two-minute-drill snaps 76.2 percent to 23.8 percent. Fantasy managers should expect Elliott’s replacement, Antonio Gibson, to play a similar dual-threat backup role in 2024. Stevenson should be treated as borderline RB2/3. Gibson brings needed speed to the offense as a change-of-pace player possessing sneaky upside in leagues that award points for return-game production. Among 35 NFL returners with at least 35 total returns over the last two seasons, Gibson’s 23.6 yards per kickoff return rank 16th. He is a matchup-based flex play.
Win Total
New England’s DraftKings Over/Under is installed at 4.5 wins and schedule guru Warren Sharp projects them to face the NFL’s second-hardest schedule in 2024. The lineup features a who’s who of elite offenses, including their own AFC East, the AFC South, the NFC West, plus the Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers and Chicago Bears. While Maye’s potential rookie struggles could create issues, he gives them a better chance to remain competitive in shootouts than Brissett. New England’s above-average defense suffered significant injury losses last year, yet ranked fifth in positive EPA allowed rate (40.0 percent) and seventh in yards allowed per coverage snap (5.90). Betting the under is the safest play but good odds on five-to-six wins should not be disregarded.
