The first thing you should know is that I have written multiple versions of what you are about to read before. Updated, expanded and re-written yes, but the themes are very much intact from previous versions.
I just want to be fully honest with you because the best way to trade is by being honest. That’s right. This is a trade advice column. We are five weeks into the season, and with the playoffs in many leagues starting in Week 15, it means we are basically a third of the way through the regular season.
I don’t like making trades – especially big trades – until you get a real sense of your team. Barring catastrophic injuries, I will always wait to trade until there is enough of a sample size to figure out what my team is. So with the caveat that the entire fantasy football season is a small sample size, five games is usually enough to have a sense of where your team is strong and where it needs help.
Have you gotten really unlucky this year, scoring a ton but always facing the highest-scoring team in your league? Or maybe the opposite: You know your team isn’t great, but you’ve lucked into some easy matchups where your opponent had a bad week. You know where you have good depth and where you are scrambling and praying every week.
The point is, whether you are 0-5, 5-0 or somewhere in between, you can always improve your team. And yes, 0-5 is a tough hole to dig out of, but I will tell you I was 0-4 in a 16-team league last year (brutal matchup luck) but dug my way out of it to make the playoffs. And those at 5-0 feel good, I am sure, but things can go south quickly. Just ask anyone that was crushing last year with Derrick Henry and then when he went down for the year, many a fantasy team followed.
Long way to go. So to me, this is the week the trading season really starts. Or, at least, should start. And one big issue with trades is that way way way more trades DON’T happen than actually do. So how do we get a trade done? One that works for us but also doesn’t create a three week angry text chain among your entire league?
Well, I’m here to help. Here, once again, is the 2022 Edition of The Matthew Berry Definitive Guide to Trading or 7 Habits of Highly Effective Traders.
Habit 1: They figure out what they need and what they have.
So you’ve decided to make a trade. Great.
Well, before you can acquire someone, you need to know what you can offer. What positions do you have depth at? Where are you weak? Hopefully you have depth. What’s that you say?
“I have no depth!” you yell at the screen. “That’s why I need to trade,” you say. Because everyone is hurt. Or is terrible. Or is terrible and possibly pretending to be hurt, like Russell Wilson.
Fine. Then let’s create some depth.
Let’s say you have no running backs and only one decent wide receiver, but you do have Lamar Jackson. So let’s look at the waiver wire. Carson Wentz is available in 52% of Yahoo leagues. Now, he plays tonight and I don’t love the match-up but whatever. It’s just an example.
Wentz is currently a top-eight fantasy quarterback and, warts and all, will continue to put up fantasy points thanks to a horrific defense. And Jared Goff is out there in 40% of Yahoo leagues and likely was dropped this week by a lot of bye week teams. And so on.
The idea here is you can grab a usable quarterback off the waiver wire and now you have Lamar Jackson to deal. That’s not ideal, of course, but you can live with Wentz or Goff or whoever another team is willing to throw back because they are getting LAMAR!
Obviously, you’d rather have Jackson, but we are not in an optimal situation here. We need to make a trade and no one is interested in your crappy Allen Robinson. But Jackson… Jackson you can deal. Rolling with a fill-in quarterback and an RB1 is a lot better than continually hoping Tyler Allgeier becomes a thing.
Maybe you have Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews? I know, I know, you don’t want to trade them. No one does. But there’s lots of “hope for a touchdown tight end streamer types.” Most people in your league have those types, so if you’re rolling with one you won’t be at a big weekly disadvantage the way you currently are at other spots. Now, I would want a HAUL for either Kelce or Andrews, but the point is… if you don’t have depth to trade you’re gonna have to create it.
Once you’ve figure out who you are willing to trade, you need to figure out what you are trading for. If you can replace the quarterback on the waiver wire and live with your wide receivers, maybe running back is where you are attacking. You need to look at all available pools of players (your roster, free agents, other team rosters) to figure out who is potentially available to you and who isn’t. (The team with Josh Allen isn’t trading for Lamar Jackson, you know?)
Anyways, once you have done all this -- figure out what you have and where you can possibly get what you need -- you need to do one more thing. You should rank (at least mentally) the players on your team, by position and overall, so that you truly understand how you value everyone.
Habit 2: They do a deep dive on everyone else’s team.
Don’t target one specific player. Yes, you’d like to have Cooper Kupp. Everyone would. That’s too narrow a window. It’s much better to find teams that might have wide receiver depth to deal. Or conversely, a team that needs what you have a surplus of: good tight ends or a quarterback, for example. Ideally, you’ll identify a few teams that are potential trade partners. Maybe there’s a 5-0 team in your league that is willing to part with a solid piece for Dak Prescott. You’ve been piecing it together at quarterback and don’t love trading him now that he’s close to returning, but if you’re 1-4 you don’t have the luxury of waiting until he’s back. You need to win now, and a 4-1 team can afford a hit for a few weeks.
Understanding your objective is crucial before trying to trade. Are you in must-win-this-week mode? Or maybe you have massive injuries and just need to plug holes for the rest of the season. Or just trying to take a surplus and improve an area you see as a need? Are you 5-0 or 4-1 and looking down the road? Understand the objective because, as with our example from above, Dak makes sense for a 4-1 team but doesn’t for the must-win-this-week team.
Habit 3: They know how to market their players.
Don’t just send a bunch of cold trade offers out of the blue via the league interface. This has a high probability to just get turned down. Just seeing two players in an email often gets rejected ASAP with no counter.
You need to start a conversation, and there are many ways to do that: text, email, DMs on any number of social platforms, via whatever place you play or if it happens to be your significant other, taking them to dinner and, over dessert, casually bringing up the fact that their team is one good tight end short of unbeatable.
In general, I also don’t like the trade block or announcing to the league that “so-and-so” is available. I feel that devalues the player, like you’ve already announced you’re getting rid of him. The exception to that is if the player is truly elite and there are no questions about him. And even in that scenario, you need to be selective. The message is, “I hate to do this, but my wide receivers have been ravaged by injury and I’ve got to do something. Austin Ekeler is available. Make your best offer.”
But I would not send that league-wide. Send it just to the top three or four teams in the league, all copied on the same message. This creates a competition where the league leaders may or may not want Ekeler but they sure don’t want their rival to get him. That way you can play people off each other.
One final small marketing trick: Set your lineup so that the player you hope to deal is listed as a starter. Seems dumb, but it’s a weird psychological thing. When a prospective trading partner looks at your team, it’ll seem to them that the player in question is more valuable if he’s a valued member of your starting lineup rather than on your bench as surplus.
Habit 4: They actually talk with (potential) trading partners.
So now your interest in doing something is out in the open, and it’s time to talk to specific teams to see if there’s mutual interest. If they responded to your feelers, great. You have a good starting point. If it’s a colder approach, make it loose and casual at first. “You open to talking trade?” or some such. You can be specific about your motive if you want. “I need a running back; you open to a deal?” Because if they aren’t, why waste your time?
Let’s say Saquon Barkley is on one of the teams you think has running backs to spare. Play it cool. Don’t say, “I want Saquon.” Of course you want Saquon. Just like their manager is probably not looking to move Saquon. So just ask if they are open to dealing one of their running backs, rather than asking straight up for their top pick and best player. Work up to Barkley in the negotiation. (More on how to do that later).
Now, if you are on the receiving end of a query like that, you are welcome to say no, of course. But answer. Ignoring a reasonable and polite inquiry is rude. And also, what are you doing? You in this league or not? Say yes or no, but just say something.
It’s perfectly fine to have multiple negotiations going on just so long as everyone is upfront. If, when you make an offer you say, “FYI, I sent offers to two other teams tonight,” no issue. Or, “I’m only talking to you about this but I need to do a deal by Saturday, so if we can’t agree tonight I’m reaching out to others.” Whatever it is, just be clear about your timeline and whether the negotiating window is exclusive.
I sometimes like making it an offer that could go either way in order to open up negotiations. Earlier this week, I sent a text saying, “You open to dealing D’Andre Swift? Or are you interested in Jamaal Williams? Let’s get these guys on the same team.” So we’re talking now and we’ll see if a deal gets done.
The idea is to open a dialogue where the other party has a choice of giving up an injury-prone superstar on his bye week or acquiring someone of mine that has proven productive when given the chance. You never know what will pique someone’s interest. Your goal at this point is to get them to talk to you with an open mind. Then you can negotiate.
Habit 5: They negotiate by listening and being patient.
Now that you’ve got a potential trade partner talking, your first question should be, “What do you need?” You already know what they can do for you. Let’s find out what you need to do for them so you can craft a deal that helps you both
It’s important to phrase that request as a way to help you help them. Think about it. Someone says to me, “I’m interested in Travis Kelce, what do you want for him?” Great. So now I have to research your team to find a POTENTIAL match that MIGHT make me interested in trading an elite tight end I wasn’t even looking to trade, all so you can turn me down because I’m gonna ask for the world to give up Kelce.
Make it as easy as possible for your potential trade partner. Not everyone has the same amount of time to obsess over it like we do.
Listen to what the other player needs. Really listen. The only way this will work is if it’s a two-way conversation about what you both need and want. Hearing their concern and enthusiasm about players is the best way to get something done and even sometimes gives you an advantage in negotiation.
Ask the potential trade partner to rank their players at the position you’re looking at. This allows you to do two important things:
A) Get a sense of how they value certain players, which might be different from how you value them. B) Inherently put them in a position where they have subconsciously devalued some of their players (whomever they rank lowest). Be prepared to reveal your rankings as well. Ideally, rank them so the player you want to trade is “equal” to the player you want from them.
When negotiating, don’t treat your potential partner as if they are stupid. They are not interested in trading their recently underperforming star running back for the Tevin Coleman you just picked up.
Don’t try to talk down the player you want to acquire and don’t oversell the guy you are dealing. Don’t lie about injuries or changes in value. Better to be honest, because they already know it (or will soon enough) and they will trust you more for it.
Don’t be afraid to lay out why you want to make a deal -- help them understand what’s in it for you. “Yes, this player is in a committee, but he’ll get the majority of goal-line work. However, he’ll never play for me because I have this backup that popped. And the difference between him and your top-20 wide receiver is clearly someone, so how can I fill in the gap?”
Except in rare circumstances where I desperately need depth, I want to be the one getting the best player in a deal. I try not to do 2-for-1 deals unless I am getting the one. But not all 2-for-1 deals need to actually be 2-for-1. If I am the one offering the two players, I will ask for a throw-in. These two guys for your stud and whoever you want to throw in. Or the worst wide receiver you have, etc. The 2-for-2 is weirdly more palatable than a 2-for-1 because there is a perception that they are “getting” something for their worst player.
You obviously want to accentuate the positive, but don’t sell it as steak if it’s a hamburger. Better to sell it as the best hamburger available for the price.
Everyone is available. That must be your mindset, regardless of whether you are initiating or getting the trade offer. Never say, “Sorry, Jalen Hurts is untradable.” Because look, if someone offered you Cooper Kupp, Mark Andrews and Kirk Cousins for him, you’re obviously doing that deal. You can say it would take quite a lot to get Hurts, you value him highly, but everyone is tradable in the right deal.
Being willing to talk about your best player has the added benefit of getting them to talk about theirs. If they think they can get Hurts (“So what would you give me for Hurts?”) and get them talking out about the idea of dealing, say, Andrews and Kupp, now they’ve started to accept the idea of trading those players and you can dial the deal back to a way where you keep Hurts but still acquire Andrews. “That’s not enough for Hurts, but what about X and Y for Andrews?” And now you’re discussing Andrews, not Hurts. Make sense?
Put a time limit on it. “OK, well let me know by 10 p.m.” Otherwise, too many trades sit in limbo. It puts some urgency on the deal and lets the other person know you mean business. Also, the longer a deal takes, the less likely it is that it gets done. Doubt sets in and the excitement gets lost.
No is no. If you make an offer and the other person says no, you’re allowed one follow-up to say, “Well, is there something else you’d consider for so and so? Could we keep talking?” But if the answer is still no, then you have to move on.
If the other person says they are negotiating with someone else, it’s fair to ask, “Well, before you agree to a deal for Fournette, will you give me a chance to beat it? Maybe I can, maybe I can’t, but this way you know you’ll get maximum value.” Gives you one last chance, gives you info on what others in the league are offering, and if it’s a no, at least you gave it your best shot.
Habit 6: They understand all angles of a trade – the good, the bad and the other side.
There comes a point in the negotiation when it’s time to make a solid offer, or you have received one you need to accept or reject.
First, understand your goal is to improve your team with a focus on your starting lineup. You don’t need to “win” the trade for it to be valuable to you. You may deal a top-10 quarterback for a decent flex running back which, on the surface, means you “lost” the trade. But if that quarterback was never playing for you, this was the best available player to you and your starting lineup is better for it, then you “won,” too.
In addition to thinking about how the deal works for you if everything goes well, you also need to evaluate the floor. If everything turns horrible, how does the trade affect you? Did you deal too much depth? Are you now one random injury away from disaster? Everyone sees the upside; not enough people think about the downside.
As my late, great Uncle Lester used to say, “If you’re in a poker game with five other guys and each guy has $100 and you’ve won $400, it’s time to leave. You’ve already won most of the money.” He would also say, “If you can get 80% of what you want in a deal, take it. Most guys screw it up trying to get the last 20%.” My uncle was one of the truly great negotiators who ever lived. Don’t get greedy. And remember, it’s only a good deal if both parties are satisfied. And if both people are happy but didn’t get everything they wanted, it’s probably as close to a perfect deal as you can get.
A deal is a deal as soon as both parties agree to it. I have been in negotiations where the person and I have verbally agreed to a deal, then I’ve gone to put it through on the site and they turned it down. “I had second thoughts.” No, we agreed. We’ve been negotiating for two days. A deal is a deal. A person’s word needs to mean something, and whether a deal was agreed to verbally, via text or email, or through the app, it’s still a deal. Don’t weasel out on some technicality. All you have is your rep and your word.
Habit 7: They don’t gloat, they don’t veto and they’re not afraid to walk away.
Don’t gloat. Even if you completely got the better of someone, say you think it was a fair deal. Assuming you are in a league with the same people year after year, the better you make someone feel about trading with you -- and that includes after the deal is done -- the easier the next negotiation will be. Plus, you never know when a deal will blow up in your face. Don’t make it worse for yourself by having been a jerk about it.
Don’t veto. Unless there is proof of collusion, every trade must be allowed to stand. Everyone should be able to run their team the way they want to. Even if it’s not how you would do it. Even if it’s badly. Especially if it’s badly.
The truth is you never know. A trade before week 1 of the season of Javonte Williams for Geno Smith would have been labeled a rip-off. As we sit here in Week 6, Geno Smith is a top-10 fantasy quarterback (and looking all sorts of legit) while Williams is out for the year. Hell, even a Russell Wilson for Geno trade would have been looked at as lopsided. Or a Goff for Stafford deal. And yet, you’d much rather have Geno or Goff than Wilson or Stafford right now.
You never know.
Even if the trade doesn’t work out, so what? We all have different opinions on players. That’s what makes it fun. And the art of negotiation is a skill in fantasy football. An important one. So what if you don’t like the trade for one team. It’s not your team. Again. Let that person manage their team. Even if it’s badly. It’s their team, not yours.
When you veto, it’s your way of saying, “I’m not good enough to beat this person straight up. I have to use a loop hole to stop them.” Seriously, the veto is the coward’s way out. Never veto. Full stop.
Finally, one last Uncle Lesterism. “The best way to double your money is to fold it up and put it in your pocket.” Sometimes the best trades are the ones we don’t make. Don’t be afraid to walk away.
Know this was long, but a quick reminder before we get to the players. This Sunday, Fantasy Football Pregame will be LIVE from Philadelphia, ahead of the big Sunday night game between Dallas and Philly. We’ll be broadcasting live from Dilworth Park in Philadelphia this Sunday from 11 a.m. to 1 p.m. ET, so if you’re in the area, come by and be a part of the show. We have a lot of fun surprises planned. And if you can’t make it, be sure to watch us on Peacock. The show will also air from 12-1 on CNBC.
Let’s get to it.
Check out FantasyLife.com and subscribe to the free daily newsletter
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 6:
Tom Brady at Pittsburgh
In the two games since Chris Godwin and Mike Evans returned, Tom Brady is averaging 22.6 FPPG. He also has 50-plus pass attempts and more than 350 passing yards in each of those games. Now he faces a Steelers defense that ranks on the season bottom three in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. Remember, just last week the Steelers saw Josh Allen torch them for 424 yards and four touchdowns. There really couldn’t be a better matchup for Tom Brady this week or a worse one for the Steelers. That’s why Brady is my QB6 in Week 6. Okay, that was a lot of really positive information I just wrote about Tom Brady. Not a single negative word was shared. No way I can get called for roughing on this write-up, right?
Geno Smith vs. Arizona
Following Geno Smith and Seattle’s Week 1 upset of Russell Wilson and Denver … or what we then thought was an upset … Smith told ESPN’s Lisa Salters: “They wrote me off. I ain’t write back though.” The spur-of-the-moment line was so good that Smith subsequently filed a trademark request with the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. And since that game, Smith has played even better than that quote. In four of his five games on the season, Smith has multiple touchdowns and at least 17 fantasy points. He’s also averaging 304 passing yards over his last three games. Put it all together and Geno Smith is QB6 so far on the season in PPG (19.6). Geno Smith! And now he gets a Cardinals defense that a lot of people have written off, and for good reason. As of this writing, Seahawks-Cardinals has an over-under of 50.5 at BetMGM, the second-highest on the slate. (Promo code BERRY gets first time players a risk-free bet up to $1,000 he said promotionally). All of this means that Geno is not a fluke. He’s a legit starting fantasy quarterback, especially this week. I have Geno Smith as a top-nine quarterback in Week 6. And I’m so confident about it that I have trademarked the sentence: “I have Geno Smith as a top-nine quarterback in Week 6.” Coming to t-shirts near you.
Kirk Cousins at Miami
Wikipedia.com tells me that common dolphins can grow more than 12 feet long and move at speeds in excess of 35 mph. With that size and speed, you’d think they’d be great at pass coverage. Yet, NFL.com tells me the Dolphins have allowed the fifth-most passing yards on the season and third-most passing yards per attempt. Not great! Even worse: Byron Jones is still out and Xavien Howard‘s status is uncertain for Sunday. What is certain is that Kirk Cousins will throw a lot against Miami. He has at least 38 pass attempts in four straight games and 270-passing yards in four of his last five games. Cousins is a top-10 quarterback this week.
Others receiving votes: Before getting to face Skylar Thompson last week, the Jets were allowing passing touchdowns at the fifth-highest rate. Now they have to face an angry Aaron Rodgers, who has multiple touchdown passes in each of his last four games … The Rams are struggling to protect Matthew Stafford, which means it’s a great time for them to play the Carolina Panthers, who rank 27th in sack rate. (Remember, the Panthers canned Matt Rhule AND their defensive coordinator. The Panthers stink on both sides of the ball.) Stafford has 40-plus pass attempts in back-to-back games, and he’s due for some major positive touchdown regression. Stafford’s 2.6% TD rate this season is well off the league average of 4.1% and miles off of his 6.8% mark from a season ago … I get that Trevor Lawrence has struggled recently, but in deeper leagues, I think he could be okay against a Colts defense that he had 18.5 points against in Week 2. The numbers suggest the Colts have a good passing defense but they’ve also faced Davis Mills, Lawrence, Patrick Mahomes, Ryan Tannehill and Russell Wilson in that Thursday night debacle, so I’m not ready to call them the ’86 Bears just yet. Mahomes also had over 18 points against them, and I like Lawrence’s chances at a top-15 finish this week.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 6
Russell Wilson at Los Angeles Chargers
After Russell Wilson‘s Week 5 Thursday night debacle, I went on my Fantasy Football Happy Hour podcast (please like and subscribe! You don’t have to actually listen. I’m not above pity clicks) and predicted that Wilson had played so poorly this year and especially against the Colts that you knew there would suddenly be a “leak” from Wilson’s camp. That, you know, he was secretly playing through injury and he wanted to tough it out but it’s become too much blah blah. And then literally the next day reporters took the bait and we heard that Wilson had a partially torn lat. So excuse me while I take a bow on that one. (Owww! God! I just completely tore both my lats and my hamstrings attempting to bow. I should stretch more.) Now listen, I’m not a doctor. So while I don’t know how a partially torn lat prevents a quarterback from seeing wide open KJ Hamler in the end zone, what I do know is that Wilson has fewer than 12 fantasy points in three of his past four games and has just one game on the season with multiple touchdown passes. I doubt his lat (or his decision-making) will suddenly and miraculously improve this week on the road against a Chargers defense that is top 10 in yards allowed per completion. I have Wilson outside my top-14 quarterbacks in Week 6.
Carson Wentz at Chicago
The 38 over-under for this game is the lowest on the slate, and Washington’s implied point total is third-lowest. And for good reason: Chicago is top 10 this season in passing yards allowed and touchdown pass rate. In fact, the Bears have more interceptions this season (5) than touchdown passes allowed (4). Only two quarterbacks have managed to score more than 17 fantasy points on the Bears this season, and both of them (Kirk Cousins and Daniel Jones) had rushing touchdowns. Only two quarterbacks have taken more sacks this year than Wentz, who will be behind a bad offensive line and playing without Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas in a game on a short week on the road. Even BetMGM doesn’t think highly of his chances, setting his passing yardage prop at 218.5 passing yards (Wentz currently averages 278 passing yards a game). All of this is why Wentz is outside my top 15 in Week 6. (Special thanks to reader Ron R. of Washington, D.C. for submitting all of these negative Carson Wentz stats.)
Running Backs I Love in Week 6:
Breece Hall at Green Bay
In a season in which we have seemingly lost most every consistent fantasy producer at running back, at least the Fantasy Gods have given us Breece Hall. The Jets rookie now has three straight games with at least 15 fantasy points and back-to-back games with 19-plus touches. Hall is also averaging 42.6 receiving yards per game, second-most among NFL backs. That means he’ll remain a part of the offense even if the Jets fall behind big in Green Bay. And even when Hall runs against the Packers, good things should happen, too. Green Bay allows 5.1 YPC to backs this season, fifth-most in the league. Thank you for the Breece Hall mercies you have bestowed upon us, oh Fantasy Gods. I pray you keep him healthy and out of anything resembling a running back committee. And also, for admittedly very selfish reasons, I especially pray that he performs up to my RB8 ranking for Week 6, so I can gloat to everyone about how great I am. Amen.
Rhamondre Stevenson at Cleveland
It’s Rhamondre StevenSZN for the Patriots with Damien Harris likely out with a hamstring injury. The most complete and versatile back on the Patriots, when Stevenson gets work, he produces. In his six career games with 15-plus touches, he has averaged 16.1 FPPG and has 100-plus yards in four of them. That includes last week when he put up career highs in both touches (27) and scrimmage yards (175). And it was really no surprise. Stevenson always performs when he gets extra work. I expect another big game this week against a Cleveland defense that allows the fourth-most yards to backs on the season, the second-most rushing touchdowns and a dreadful 5.9 YPC to the position. The only thing to not absolutely love about Stevenson this week? The fact that Bill Belichick exists solely to torment fantasy managers and that there’s at least a 4.637% chance he gives Stevenson zero touches on Sunday just to spite us.
Raheem Mostert vs. Minnesota
Over the past two games, Raheem Mostert has 36 touches and a 70% snap share. He also has 75% of Miami’s goal-line touches over the same stretch as well as 80-plus scrimmage yards in both games. So that kind of usage and production against a Vikings defense that has allowed 80-plus scrimmage yards to a running back in four of five games on the season? Yeah, I’m sorry, but I have to do it. I have to bring back the worst bit of wordplay in all of fantasy football content production. Raheem Mostert? More like Raheem MUST-START, amiright? I have also copyrighted that phrase and already submitted it to the Dad Joke Hall-of-Fame so you vultures can back the F off, ok?
(By the way, worth noting that as I was writing this up on Wednesday, Mostert was a DNP at Wednesday’s practice with a knee injury, so monitor this during the week. Chase Edmonds would be a good start if Mostert were to miss the game. Especially with Skylar Thompson expected to start again, I’d expect Miami to want to lean on the run game)
Others receiving votes: After Rashaad Penny went down, Kenneth Walker not only got 83% of Seattle’s running back snaps in a Seahawks offense that averages 21 running back touches per game but also a “Pick him up now!” headline on every single fantasy football website. If you’ve had Walker stashed on your bench all season or you managed to be in one of the 51% of leagues where he was a free agent and you got him, you now have a team’s clear RB1 ready to plug-and-play. He should be immediately inserted into line-ups … The Giants are allowing 5.1 YPC to running backs this season. They have also allowed 75-plus scrimmage yards to a running back in every game. That sets up well for J.K. Dobbins this week … Seattle has allowed 100-plus scrimmage yards to a running back in every game this season. With James Conner and Darrel Williams banged up, it looks like the back they’ll face this week is Eno Benjamin. Even if Conner is active, I’d expect more usage than normal from Benjamin, who has at least 45 scrimmage yards and four targets in four of five games this season.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 6:
Najee Harris vs. Tampa Bay
Over Harris’ last five games, he has just 112 total yards, zero touchdowns and is averaging 2.6 yards per carry. Wait, no. I’m sorry. Those are actually the last five NFL games by Trent Richardson. My mistake. It’s easy to get the two Alabama backs confused and you didn’t exactly think those numbers were wrong for Harris, did you? Because he’s been that bad. Over his last five games, Harris is actually averaging 3.2 YPC and has two touchdowns. So … yeah. His passing game usage almost non-existent at this point (He has 64 receiving yards this season, 39th among running backs. Fewer receiving yards than Kyle Juszczyk or Craig Reynolds), he needs volume and touchdowns. I chalk up the Jaylen Warren usage last week (Harris played just 49% of snaps) to the blowout nature of the game with Buffalo. But still. Not great, Bob. Not great! With just one game this year with 75+ scrimmage yards and a match-up with a Tampa Bay defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, Harris is outside my top 20 for the week.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Buffalo
I’m petitioning to change CEH to a four-letter word because that’s how frustrated he makes me. In that Monday night shoot-out against the Raiders, CEH got just 12 touches for 25 yards. Couldn’t Patrick Mahomes have thrown just one of the approximately 27 two-yard touchdown passes he threw to Travis Kelce on Monday night to CEF’inH? All I ask for is ONE! The fact is, CEH has long been living on borrowed fantasy time, as he only has one game this year with more than 12 touches. (Of course it was the one game I went on national TV and said to bet the under on his line of 9.5 rush attempts. Against a very good Tampa Bay run defense that played its worst game of the year. Not that I’m bitter). Anyways, CEH has scored a lot more touchdowns on limited snaps than he should have (his five touchdowns are responsible for 42% of his total fantasy points this year). In a game where the Chiefs had to play catch-up last week, Jerick McKinnon actually played more snaps and there’s certainly a chance the Bills get out to a lead here as well. Either way, he’s in a timeshare and it’s hard to see him having a huge fantasy day against a Buffalo run defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this year.
Ezekiel Elliott at Philadelphia
Elliott is coming off of his biggest workload of the season: 22 carries against the Rams. That’s good. Now for the bad: all of his carries this week will be against an Eagles front seven that has allowed just 66.5 rushing yards per game against them at home so far this season. In fact, only one running back (D’Andre Swift) has reached even 65 scrimmage yards against the Birds. His passing game usage isn’t there (under five receiving yards in four of five games this year) so he’ll need volume, but teams facing Philadelphia this year average an NFL-low 17.2 running back carries per game. With Tony Pollard taking some of that work, you’ll need a score for Zeke to pay off on Sunday night. How lucky do you feel? Elliott is outside my top 25 this week.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 6:
Ja’Marr Chase at New Orleans
As talented as Ja’Marr Chase is, as good as his quarterback is, it’s hard to fathom how he’s just WR16 on the season in PPG. The only thing harder to wrap your head around is the fact that Vin Diesel was just named Hottest Bald Man of 2022, dethroning Prince William. I mean, is it because I’m not bald, just baldING? It has to be that, right? It’s the only explanation. But 2023 has to be my year. Just as I think this is Ja’Marr Chase‘s week. Only one team has allowed more deep touchdown passes than the New Orleans Saints and they are also top five in highest yards per reception allowed to opposing wideouts. It’s a secondary you can throw on, as the Saints have allowed the eighth most yards to wide receivers overall this year, a stat unlikely to get better if Marshon Lattimore misses this game (He’s banged up and missed Wednesday’s practice). When I think of Chase back in Louisiana where he played college ball with Joe Burrow, I like his chances at a very happy homecoming, especially after seeing what Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf did last week to these same Saints (10 for 14 for 192 yards and three touchdowns).
Marquise Brown at Seattle
DeAndre Hopkins’ six-game suspension means this is the last week Marquise Brown managers have without Hopkins taking targets away. And Brown’s time as Arizona’s clear WR1 should have a grand finale against the Seahawks. The seventh-best wide receiver in fantasy so far this year, Brown quietly has three straight games with 20+ fantasy points. Find someone who looks at you the way Kyler Murray looks at Hollywood Brown. Tied for the second-most targets among wide receivers this year, Brown has at least 10 targets in four straight games. Wide receivers who see six-plus targets against Seattle this year are averaging 15.5 points per game. Brown is a locked top 10 wide receiver this week.
Tyler Lockett vs. Arizona
Speaking of Tyler Lockett, did you know he’s averaging 16.5 FPPG this season? Okay, yeah, you probably knew that. But did you know that only once did he average more than that (16.6 in 2020) in seven seasons with Russell Wilson? I’m sorry that there has to be at least one sentence in this column every week that makes Broncos fans sad, that makes them think that their team just might be paying $165 million guaranteed over five seasons for a quarterback who is both older than — and inferior to — Geno Smith. But I can’t help it. The numbers so far are what they are. With at least 5 receptions and 75 yards in every game the last four weeks (averaging 19.2 points for a WR7 finish in that time frame), Tyler Lockett is, er, Lockett-ed in with Geno Smith. Also gonna send that to the Dad Joke Hall of Fame. Lockett’s 80% catch rate this year with Geno is sixth-highest among wide receivers, and I expect him to once again torch Arizona’s bottom-12 pass defense, just like he did last year (He averaged 21.3 ppg with 95+ yards in both games against the Cardinals last season).
Zach Ertz at Seattle
Ertz has at least six receptions in each of his last four games as well as double-digit targets in four of those games. I never thought I’d say: “I sure wish the Falcons would deploy Kyle Pitts like the Cardinals do Zach Ertz,” but here we are. No team has allowed more yards to opposing tight ends this year than the Seahawks, and with multiple red zone targets in four of five games this year, I like Ertz’s chances at getting into the end zone in this one. I have him as a top-five tight end this week.
Others receiving votes: There’s no way anyone is benching Gabe Davis after last week, but in a game with the highest over/under on BetMGM’s slate, the fact that Davis gets to face a Chiefs team that is tied for the third-most touchdowns allowed to wide receivers (and fifth-most receptions) and that he absolutely torched in the playoffs last year should make you feel good about getting big production from him for the second-straight week … The Colts allow the fifth-most yards after the catch per reception to the slot this year, which is where Christian Kirk plays a majority of snaps. Kirk had a 6-72-2 touchdown game against Indy in Week 2 this year … Quietly, Jakobi Meyers is WR8 in points per game this year as whoever is playing quarterback for the Patriots always looks for him. Meyers averages nine targets a game and has a 38% target share the last two games … With Jahan Dotson and Logan Thomas out and Dyami Brown banged up, Curtis Samuel should continue to dominate looks as he has at least seven-plus targets in every game this year and six-plus receptions in four of five games … George Pickens has back to back games with six-plus receptions and 80+ yards with at least seven targets in three straight. I suspect the Steelers will be down and throwing quite a lot in this one as 8.5-point underdogs, per BetMGM … If not this week George Kittle, then when? The Falcons are bottom three in the NFL in both receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. Kittle is running a route on 85% of dropbacks since returning, so here’s to San Francisco showing Arthur Smith how to use a tight end … Hayden Hurst has at least seven targets in three of five games this year, has scored in back-to-back games and Tee Higgins is likely to be at less than 100%.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 6:
Mike Williams vs. Denver
Keenan Allen was all of us last week, sitting on his couch tweeting displeasure at NFL coaches. (His tweet just happened to be directed at his actual head coach.) But with Allen possibly in line to leave his couch and return to action this week, I’m not loving Mike Williams’ outlook against a Denver defense allowing the second-fewest yards and only one touchdown to wide receivers this entire season. And Williams will likely draw the Patrick Surtain shadow even if Allen plays. In another boom or bust season for Williams -- he has three games with 110-plus yards and two with fewer than 20 -- I see his Week 6 as more likely to bust than boom. He’s merely WR20 for me this week.
Jerry Jeudy at Los Angeles Chargers
Jeudy hasn’t put up even 55 yards in a game since Week 1. He has four or fewer receptions in every game. And his 48% catch rate is fourth-lowest among all qualified wide receivers. I don’t mean to judge Jeudy, but he’s been even worse than that Judge Judy pun I just stealthily dropped on you. (And maybe even worse than the Raheem Must-start one. Really!) I still have hope that Jeudy will break out this season, but against a Chargers team allowing the sixth-fewest yards per reception to wide receivers? He’s only my WR39 in Week 6.
Kyle Pitts vs San Francisco
Last week was the best week of Kyle Pitts’ fantasy career. Oh, not because he scored zero fantasy points, the fourth time in five weeks he has yet to eclipse even four fantasy points. But because he was actually declared out BEFORE the game. Finally a week where you knew to bench Pitts BEFORE the game started, not realizing it Monday morning. He’s expected back in the lineup this week which for Arthur Smith likely means 40% of the snaps while blocking much of the time. He’s just 23rd among tight ends in routes run per game on a team that doesn’t even throw that much (Falcons are 31st in pass attempts). With just one game this year with more than two receptions and 25 receiving yards, it’s hard to see a breakout game coming against a Niner defense that allows the second-fewest receiving yards to opposing tight ends this season, the third-fewest fantasy points and has yet to give up a touchdown to a tight end this season.
Matthew Berry – The Talented Mr. Roto – wants to know if you’d like to talk trade.
