One of my most favorite books I’ve ever read starts like this:
“Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun.
Orbiting this at a distance of roughly ninety-two million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue green planet whose ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.
This planet has - or rather had - a problem, which was this: most of the people on it were unhappy for pretty much of the time. Many solutions were suggested for this problem, but most of these were largely concerned with the movements of small green pieces of paper, which is odd because on the whole it wasn’t the small green pieces of paper that were unhappy.
And so the problem remained; lots of the people were mean, and most of them were miserable, even the ones with digital watches.
Many were increasingly of the opinion that they’d all made a big mistake in coming down from the trees in the first place. And some said that even the trees had been a bad move, and that no one should ever have left the oceans.
And then, one Thursday, nearly two thousand years after one man had been nailed to a tree for saying how great it would be to be nice to people for a change, one girl sitting on her own in a small cafe in Rickmansworth suddenly realized what it was that had been going wrong all this time, and she finally knew how the world could be made a good and happy place. This time it was right, it would work, and no one would have to get nailed to anything.
Sadly, however, before she could get to a phone to tell anyone about it, a terribly stupid catastrophe occurred, and the idea was lost forever.
This is not her story.
But it is the story of that terrible stupid catastrophe and some of its consequences.
It is also the story of a book, a book called The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy - not an Earth book, never published on Earth, and until the terrible catastrophe occurred, never seen or heard of by any Earthman.
Nevertheless, a wholly remarkable book.
In fact it was probably the most remarkable book ever to come out of the great publishing houses of Ursa Minor - of which no Earthman had ever heard either.
Not only is it a wholly remarkable book, it is also a highly successful one - more popular than the Celestial Home Care Omnibus, better selling than Fifty More Things to do in Zero Gravity, and more controversial than Oolon Colluphid’s trilogy of philosophical blockbusters Where God Went Wrong, Some More of God’s Greatest Mistakes and Who is this God Person Anyway?
In many of the more relaxed civilizations on the Outer Eastern Rim of the Galaxy, the Hitchhiker’s Guide has already supplanted the great Encyclopedia Galactica as the standard repository of all knowledge and wisdom, for though it has many omissions and contains much that is apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate, it scores over the older, more pedestrian work in two important respects.
First, it is slightly cheaper; and secondly it has the words Don’t Panic inscribed in large friendly letters on its cover.”
So that’s the late great Douglas Adams from The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. I read it and its many sequels maybe a million times as a kid. Absolutely love that book and series.
The books are brilliant, hilarious, unique, thought provoking and, to be honest, a little depressing knowing I will never write something that good. I read them when I was a kid and well, it has been many years since I was a kid, so I’m guessing there are a lot of people in my audience that have probably never even heard of the books let alone read them.
Such a huge fan of Adams, I drove two and half hours as a college aged kid just to meet him at a book signing. Waited in line for an hour, said hi and exchanged a few words, me telling him how brilliant his work was and how much I loved it (something he heard every day of his life, I am sure) and we took a picture. Whole thing lasted maybe two minutes. Then two and half hours back by car as well. Six hours of my life for two minutes. Six hours well spent.
So I chose to start this column off with that excerpt for a few reasons. One, it’s just great, funny writing that holds up 40 years after it was published. I mean seriously – THAT’s how you start a book. Clever, funny, original language and pacing plus inventive “outer space” names that let you know immediately… this ain’t your average book. Hang on, s***'s about to get weird. It has a helluva hook in the middle – all of it great.
It holds up really well and it’s really incredible to read it (or re-read it as it was for me) with current events in mind. It’s subversive and insightful in ways that are timeless.
So if I can convince just one person to pick it up and read it it’ll be worth it. Trust me – give it a shot and thank me later. You’ll turn into a hoopy frood who really knows where his towel is in no time.
But the biggest reason I chose it is because of the last sentence. The book that that novel is about is successful because it has the words DON’T PANIC inscribed in large friendly letters on its cover.
That’s about as good advice as there is. In your career, in life and especially in fantasy football.
Panic solves nothing and it distracts from the goal at hand. Solving a challenge that’s currently before you. It leads to poor and rash decision making, it creates stress for you and people around you and as our protagonist Arthur Dent says in the book “Don’t Panic. It’s the first helpful or intelligible thing anybody’s said to me all day.”
Arthur has himself quite a day in the book, a day that, if my Twitter mentions are any indication, many of you can relate to after Week 1 of the fantasy season. So I’m here, your friendly neighborhood TMR, to tell you, in big friendly letters, DON’T PANIC.
A year ago, at this time, we were coming off a week one where Jared Goff went 38-for-57 with 338 yards, 3 TDs, an INT and 3 rushes for 14 yards against San Francisco of all teams. He was QB4 that week.
And was QB31 the rest of the season (12.7 FP per game).
A pre-season darling for many, including me, last year was Jamaal Williams. We were all doing victory laps after Week 1 last year when Williams had 54 yards rushing, a TD and 8 receptions for 56 yards. He had 25 points and was RB3 for the week. He was RB53 (7.9 pts per game) and played in just 12 games the rest of the way.
Ty’Son Williams looked like the solution to the question “Who will replace J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards in the Ravens’ run heavy awesome backfield?” 94 total yards, a score and 18.4 points later against Las Vegas, Williams was RB9 in Week 1. Well…. he would play in just 12 more games the rest of the year, averaging 1.96 points a game, good for RB118 and was often a healthy scratch.
Corey Davis looked like he was worth the big offseason contract from the Jets when he hauled in 5 receptions for 97 yards and 2 TDs, good for WR5 in Week 1. He would be WR46 the rest of the way.
And on and on and on.
Let me ask you a question. Which veteran QB would you have wanted after Week 1 last year?
QB A:
291 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, he also rushed for 40 yards. 23.6 fantasy points. QB11 that week.
QB B:
133 passing yards, zero passing touchdowns, two interceptions. 1.3 fantasy points. QB35 that week.
QB C:
261 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, two yards rushing. 18.6 fantasy points. QB17 that week.
So which of those guys are you choosing the rest of the way?
Based on the numbers from Week 1 you probably rank them A, C, B.
But then I tell you that “QB A” is Tyrod Taylor. He would be QB37 the rest of the season, 11.6 points per game, eventually losing his job to Davis Mills.
“QB C” is Joe Burrow, who would average 19.7 the rest of the way and finish as QB7 on the year.
And you may have guessed that “QB B” is Aaron Rodgers, who got demolished in Week 1 (just like this year!) before crushing the rest of the way as QB4, averaging 22.1 points per game.
Oh yeah. I could do this all day.
Zach Pascal was WR16 in Week 1 off a 4 for 43 and two score game. He finished as WR108 the rest of the way.
After Week 1 last year, Najee Harris was RB46, James Conner RB48 and Aaron Jones RB51. All would finish top 10 at the position. Mike Evans was WR79 one week into last year. Mark Andrews was TE33.
So again, I say, in big friendly letters…
DON’T PANIC.
That said, while we shouldn’t panic, there are some strong underlying indicators that can tell us if there are better days ahead for some underperforming players or conversely if a strong unexpected performance is a fluke or can be expected to continue.
Sometimes it’s obvious. As Jay Croucher and I discussed on the Fantasy Football Happy Hour podcast earlier this week, Cordarrelle Patterson‘s big game came in part because rookie Tyler Allgeier was a scratch and Damien Williams (who had gotten much of the early work) left with an injury very early in the game. Patterson was left as the only guy, more or less, in the backfield. As longtime readers know, I love me some Patterson, but this was very likely his highest usage game all year.
But for the less obvious stuff, I turn to my friend Dwain McFarland. For years, Dwain has written a column called The Utilization Report, and it’s an insane treasure trove of underlying data from Pro Football Focus that helps fantasy managers put fantasy production into the proper context. It’s among my must reads every week. In fact, I like the column so much I bought it.
Well, sort of. As I’ve written before, I am so very happy here at NBC/Rotoworld. And one of the reasons is because they are so supportive of FantasyLife.com.
Well, FantasyLife recently hired Dwain full-time, where he is the director of analytics, hosts our podcast, and does a bunch of writing for us. And that writing includes The Utilization Report, which we (FantasyLife) have partnered with PFF to bring to you for free: https://www.fantasylife.com/articles/redraft/utilization-report-week-2
Why do I tell you all this? Because I’m about to take a few players from it, reacting to Week 1. What you read below is from Dwain, and if you’d like Dwain’s full column you can check it out at FantasyLife.com. But in the meantime, here are some poster children for Week 1: Don’t Panic (i.e., players that showed up small in the fantasy boxscore in Week 1 but better days are ahead).
Chase Edmonds only scored 10.5 PPR points but led the team in snaps (63%), rush atts (52%) and route participation (57%). Since 2011, 38 RBs have eclipsed 45% of attempts and 55% of routes. 100% of them finished inside the top-24 RBs and 25 of those posted top-six finishes.
Julio Jones: tied Mike Evans for the highest route participation (76%) on the Buccaneers and was second in target share (19%). With Chris Godwin likely to miss multiple games due to a hamstring, the door is open for the veteran to establish himself as a critical component of Tom Brady‘s attack. Yeah he is 33, but we have seen great receivers produce more than many remember at that age. At a minimum, Jones is a mid-range WR2 while Godwin is out.
Meanwhile, there were some big performances from Week 1. Some are fluky, but some aren’t. Here are two that should continue to thrive:
Saquon Barkley exploded for 31.4 fantasy points as the RB1 of Week 1. The 25-year-old operated as an every-down back, accounting for 82% of the snaps, 60% of rush attempts, 74% of routes and a 37% target share – and the juice was back. Barkley averaged 6.8 yards after contact and registered an explosive rush (10-plus yards) on 22% of his touches. RBs since 2011 to handle 60% or more of attempts and 65% or more route participation: all 14 finished in the top 16; 13-of-14 finished top five.
Curtis Samuel dominated with a 26% target share on his way to 21.2 fantasy points. He moved all over the field and got involved on the ground with a 16% rush share. The former Buckeye was a big-ticket free agent in 2021 after he popped in multiple breakout metrics in 2019 and 2020. With the Commanders looking like a pass-heavy attack this season, the arrow is pointing up for the explosive receiver.
Anyways, Dwain is also a great follow on Twitter – thanks to him for letting me share some of his insights. Just remember – above all else – it’s one week. Don’t Panic.
I know this has been long but before we get to it I just want to make a big announcement:
Our Sunday morning show – The Fantasy Football Pre-Game with Matthew Berry – is coming to NBC!
You heard me.
The show airs LIVE every Sunday from 11 am ET-1 pm ET on Peacock. (PeacockTV.com). There is a free ad-supported version so no excuses for anyone not watching. BUT – even if you don’t have Peacock and/or are too lazy to download the free app, you can watch the second hour (Noon-1pm ET) on NBC!
Check your local listings and if your local NBC affiliate isn’t carrying it, call or email them and tell them you want it. I’m so fired up about this. Will be great as Michael Smith, Jay Croucher, myself and a lot of our friends get you set for the day in fantasy and betting. We had a VERY profitable week last Sunday
So @michaelsmith @croucherJD & I had a pretty good betting week this past weekend on #FFPregame 11am-1pm ET on @peacockTV …. Every Sunday morning. Two hours of fantasy football, betting and drinking. Check us out this week if you missed last week. pic.twitter.com/2QiWhFOz4D
— Matthew Berry (@MatthewBerryTMR) September 14, 2022
Hopefully we see you Sunday and of course every Monday-Friday on the Fantasy Football Happy Hour, available wherever you get podcasts with clips and full episodes on demand on Peacock TV and the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
Let’s get to it.
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 2:
Aaron Rodgers vs. Chicago
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers wildly underperforming in their first game of the season has become just as much a part of the annual NFL calendar as … well, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers wildly underperforming in their last game of the season. (Sorry, Packers fans.) But Rodgers also has a history of bouncing back in Week 2. As discussed above, last season, after posting just 1.3 fantasy points in the opener on the road, Rodgers put up 26.8 at home in Week 2 on Monday Night Football against the Lions. Same setup this year: a bad Week 1 on the road, but Week 2 is at home in primetime — only this time Rodgers gets to play the Chicago Bears. Rodgers has averaged 26.3 FPPG in four games versus the Bears the last two seasons. He has posted at least 23 fantasy points in all of them. And he’s thrown four touchdown passes in three of those four games, too. It’s going to be a very good night for Chicago Bears team owner Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.
Matthew Stafford vs. Atlanta
Speaking of bounce-back games, I expect Matthew Stafford to put up even more fantasy points this week than there are Matthew Stafford ads during a standard commercial break. Yeah, that many. The Rams clearly aren’t concerned about Stafford’s elbow: his 41 pass attempts in Week 1 were more than he had in all but one game last season. The Rams will put it up often this season, and they should score a lot in Week 2. Their implied total is 29 points, the third-highest on the slate. Still not convinced? Then how about this: in Week 1, Jameis Winston threw for 219 yards and two touchdowns against the Falcons. Pretty good, right? Oh … Winston did that IN JUST THE FOURTH QUARTER. I’m sorry, I’m sorry. I shouldn’t have used all caps on you. That was unprofessional. Just know that my professional fake football expert opinion is that Stafford is a top-10 quarterback in Week 2.
Derek Carr vs. Arizona
You’re an Arizona Cardinals fan trapped in the desert. You’ve been walking for days, hopeless. But … what’s this? Just over that ridge … you see it … it’s … it’s … defense! You run, as fast as your tired legs can take you to get to the … no! Noooooooo! It was just a mirage. There is no defense at all. All that is here is endless sand and Patrick Mahomes touchdown passes. So where exactly am I going with this? I honestly don’t know. I think it was supposed to be about how Arizona got torched by the Chiefs in Week 1, allowing 9.2 yards per passing attempt (second-worst on the week) to go along with those five touchdown passes and 44 points. Raiders-Cardinals has the second-highest over/under on the slate this week (51.5), and last season, Derek Carr averaged 20.1 FPPG in his seven games in which 50-plus points were scored. And now he’s bringing Davante Adams along with him to these shootouts.
Others receiving votes: Carson Wentz is the quarterback of my undefeated Commanders and QB3 on the season in fantasy. That sentence was really fun to write. Thank you for humoring me. Now look, is Washington going to go undefeated the whole season? Of course not! They may rest their starters in Week 18 at 16-0 to prep for the Super Bowl run. But Wentz should remain a top fantasy quarterback at least one more week thanks to a Week 2 matchup against a Lions defense that allowed 455 yards of offense to Philadelphia in Week 1 … The Seahawks won their Super Bowl on Monday night, beating Russell Wilson, but let’s not forget that they allowed 433 yards of offense. That Seahawks defense at home is a much better matchup for Trey Lance than his Week 1 trip to Chicago was. You have to throw that game out. Brutal weather, no George Kittle and Lance lost his starting running back early on. Even with all that he still ran for 54 yards on 13 attempts, many of those designed runs. That high floor, added to the high ceiling the Seattle defense provides, puts Lance inside my top 15 in Week 2.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 2:
Let’s be real. It’s hard to put QBs on the hate list. Even the bad ones usually put up a decent number of points. So I never want to force a name on there just to fill a quota or some such. Hence the underwhelming names on this week’s list.
Tua Tagovailoa at Baltimore
Only twice in Tua Tagovailoa‘s career has he put up 18-plus fantasy points on the road. How good do you feel about him doing it a third time this week on the road against the Ravens? A Ravens team that held the Jets to just 5.2 yards per pass attempt in Week 1? Yes, the Dolphins are a lot better than the Jets, but I’m still not in on Tagovailoa as a viable fantasy option this week. Tua is on the Hate list for Week Tua. (Sorry. In fairness to Tagovailoa, I don’t think he’ll be as bad this week as that bit of wordplay. It would be almost impossible to be that bad.)
Jameis Winston vs. Tampa Bay
The Buccaneers allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the third-lowest completion percentage in Week 1. (How ‘bout them Cowboys?!) And now for the flip-side to the fourth quarter Jameis Winston stat I ALL CAPS’D on you a few paragraphs back: heading into the fourth quarter last week, Winston was just 10-for-18 for 56 yards and zero scores. This Buccaneers defense won’t let Winston go off late like Atlanta did, which makes Week 2 a bad matchup for Winston managers. Or as Jameis himself might say, Week 2 will be: “Just pain. Pain everywhere.”
Running Backs I Love in Week 2:
Saquon Barkley vs. Carolina
Saquon Barkley performing like he did in Week 1 — 33.4 fantasy points, his best performance since Week 16 of 2019 — sure was a sight for sore eyes. By the way, sore eyes actually is not one of the injuries Barkley suffered over the past three seasons. True fact. Look, we all know what Barkley can do when fully healthy, we just had to see it first. And almost as encouraging as seeing him back healthy and with jump in his legs again was his Week 1 usage. In case you skipped the intro and didn’t read Dwain’s usage on Barkley, let me remind you that Barkley had 24 touches and a 33% target share, the second-highest target share in a single game in his career. Barkley should keep it going this week against a Carolina defense that allowed 213 scrimmage yards and two scores to Cleveland backs in Week 1.
D’Andre Swift vs. Washington
Jonathan Swift famously wrote a story about eating children, while D’Andre Swift famously plays for a coach who wants to eat kneecaps. Really makes you think, huh? I probably have too much free time. Anyway, while no kneecaps were eaten in Week 1, D’Andre Swift gobbled up the bulk of the running back touches and snaps for Detroit. His 15 carries were more than he had in all but one game last season, and he played on 65% of snaps including 100% of third down snaps. A player of Swift’s talent can do a lot of damage with that kind of opportunity. Swift did sit out practice Wednesday and Thursday due to an ankle injury, but said he is “not at all” concerned about missing Week 2. Assuming he plays, he has a great matchup against a Washington team that, I want to remind you, is still in first place and undefeated, but DID give up 134 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 to Jacksonville’s backs.
Editor’s Note: Swift practiced Friday and reportedly is expected to play.
Javonte Williams vs. Houston
Look, I want Javonte Williams to get 100% of the touches in that Denver backfield as much as the next guy. I write Nathaniel Hackett about it all the time. But the man doesn’t even have time to use his timeouts late in games … do you really think he has time to read my letters? Of course not! So even though Williams got seven carries to Melvin Gordon‘s 12 on Monday night, the more important number is 11. That’s how many receptions Williams had in the opener on 12 targets. Only Cooper Kupp had more receptions than Williams in Week 1. And while Williams played on only 58% of snaps in Week 1, he got the bulk of the work on early downs and at the goal line, as well as 100% of the two-minute snaps. That workload suggests Williams’ role will only continue to grow, even if Hackett never reads my letters. I love Williams this week against a Houston defense that surrendered 229 scrimmage yards and a touchdown to Colts backs in the opener.
Others receiving votes: AJ Dillon didn’t just have double the carries of Aaron Jones in Week 1, he had more receptions and targets, too. This week Dillon gets a Bears defense that gave up 176 rushing yards in Week 1 … If you were worried about Chase Edmonds’ workload in Miami and again, you skipped the intro, Week 1 should set your mind at ease: he got 70% of running back carries and a 13% target share. In Week 2 Edmonds faces the Ravens, who yielded 13 receptions to Jets running backs in the opener on 19 targets … Tell me if you’ve heard this before: there’s change at the running back position in San Francisco due to injury. Elijah Mitchell‘s knee means it’s Jeff Wilson time again as the lead back. In fact, Wilson was the only 49ers back to get a touch after Mitchell exited. This week Wilson faces a Seattle defense that allowed 182 scrimmage yards to Denver backs on Monday night. Might as well start him now before there’s another 49ers RB change, because you know it’s coming … Rex Burkhead got 14 carries and eight targets in Houston’s opening tie as well as 100% of the third down and two-minute snaps. As 10-point underdogs on the road in Denver this week, Burkhead is in line for heavy pass game usage … For deeper PPR leagues, Dontrell Hilliard and the Titans are also 10-point underdogs this week on the road at Buffalo. That means Tennessee will have to throw to keep up, and Hilliard was tied for the third-most targets on the Titans in Week 1. He’s a viable flex for a deep PPR league team.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 2:
Najee Harris vs. New England
The good news is that Najee Harris didn’t suffer a serious injury in Week 1 and is in line to play. The bad news is that Pittsburgh’s offensive line will also play this week. And not only will they play, they’ll face a Patriots defense that allowed just 65 rushing yards and 2.8 YPC in Week 1. And if Harris’ 10 carries for 23 yards last week weren’t bad enough, he also had a target share of just 5% — lower than any game in his rookie season. Harris is outside my top 12 running backs in Week 2.
Dameon Pierce at Denver
Dameon Pierce might be RB1 on Houston’s depth chart, but he’s not RB1 in their hearts (or their usage charts). In Week 1, Rex Burkhead out-snapped the rookie 49-19, and Pierce was targeted zero times on just five routes. Pierce’s workload will likely increase throughout the season, but I’m out on him in Week 2 in a game in which the Texans are likely to trail.
Cam Akers vs. Atlanta
Sometimes a golfer posts a low number early and has to sit in the clubhouse, sweating it out to see if that score holds. Cam Akers sort of did that last week in fantasy. He posted an abysmal fantasy performance in the Thursday opener — 3 carries, 0 yards, 0 targets, just 12 total snaps — and then watched over four days and 15 more games to see if it would hold up. And it did! It was the most disappointing fantasy performance of Week 1! Congratulations, Cam Akers! Sigh. Reports out of LA suggest Akers is in the doghouse with coach Sean McVay and this was some sort of “lesson.” I do think Akers will work his way back into a meaningful role, but I have no idea if that is this week or Week 8. There’s a reason Cam Akers was on the pre-season “Hate” list, and there’s a reason he’s on it this week. I’m not ready to risk him back in my lineup until I see something. If that means I miss out on a big day, so be it. But I’d rather see it once before going all in again. Since returning last playoffs, Akers has averaged just 2.3 YPC on 75 carries. And even if Akers was getting work and was being productive with that work, the Rams this week are playing a Falcons team that gave up just 61 rushing yards to running backs in Week 1. Cam Akers is outside my top 40 running backs this week.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 2:
Mike Williams at Kansas City
Mike Williams brought back his old disappearing act in Week 1. But in Week 2, Keenan Allen literally will not appear in uniform. Allen is out with an injury, so get the thought of Williams putting up another two-catch, 10-yard performance out of your mind. This Thursday night Chiefs-Chargers matchup will be a shootout. Williams will be targeted plenty. That’s not just me playing a hunch either. Williams got nine targets in each of his games against the Chiefs a season ago (and in one of those, he posted a 7-122-1 game). And in Williams’ nine games with at least seven targets last season, he averaged 20.5 FPPG. I look for a big bounce-back game from him in Week 2. In fact he’s bounced all the way up to WR9.
Christian Kirk vs. Indianapolis
The Jaguars seem intent on giving Christian Kirk every opportunity to prove he’s worth the contract they gave him. In Week 1, his 12 targets accounted for a whopping 31.6% target share. That target share, and his 117 receiving yards in the game, beat his best marks in any game he had in four years in Arizona. That kind of usage and production is hard to ignore, even in a loss to the first place and undefeated Commanders. That’s why Kirk is a top 25 play for me in Week 2.
Dalton Schultz vs. Cincinnati
See, as a Washington fan, I could go on and on about yet another lost season for the Cowboys. About how they’re a national laughingstock. An underperforming joke even before Dak got hurt. But because I’m classy, I won’t do that. Instead, I will give positive stats about their tight end, Dalton Schultz. Stats like this: In four of his past five games dating back to last season, Schultz has six-plus receptions. And this: In all four of those games, Schultz had at least a 20% target share, including a 22% share against Tampa Bay in Week 1. And finally this: In Week 2, Schultz faces a Cincinnati team that allowed 115 yards to tight ends in their opener. Even with Cooper Rush under center, Schultz is a top-five tight end for me in Week 2. That’s much better than the Cowboys, who don’t fall inside my top 30 best NFL teams heading into Week 2. So unfortunate!
George Kittle vs. Seattle
In each of George Kittle‘s last three games against the Seahawks he has seen nine-plus targets. That includes a ridiculous 9-181-2 game against Seattle in Week 13 last season. Seattle also allowed the fourth-most yards to tight ends in Week 1. I love this matchup for Kittle in Week 2. (That is, IF Kittle plays on Sunday. As always, he remains on the top of the always-check-a-few-minutes-before-kickoff-to-see-if-he’s-actually-playing list. Or just watch Fantasy Football Pre-Game Sunday morning on Peacock and, from noon to 1, NBC(!))
Others receiving votes: The TB12 method has made Julio Jones young again, too. Jones logged the second-most wide receiver snaps behind Mike Evans in Week 1 and had an 18.5% target share. He even got two carries. Tom Brady and the Bucs should look into bringing Terrell Owens back while they’re at it. But until that happens, and especially with Chris Godwin out, Jones needs to be in lineups. (Note: Jones missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday, but he returned on Friday. It looks like he will play, but if he doesn’t, then it would be a big Russell Gage game) … Josh Palmer played one game last season with Keenan Allen on the shelf and went for five receptions, 66 yards and a touchdown on a team-high seven targets. He also got 94% of snaps in that game. Palmer has a ton of upside on Thursday night … Curtis Samuel‘s first season in Washington was done in by injury. But as Dwain points out above, he was healthy and effective all over the field last week, putting up a team-high 11 targets, four rushing attempts and a score. Samuel will have a lot of opportunities this week for the first place and undefeated Commanders against a Lions defense that is still very much a work in progress … If you’re looking for who might be the 2022 rookie version of Ja’Marr Chase, look no further than … Kyle Phillips? Okay, perhaps that’s a bit much. Okay, it’s a bit much. No perhaps. But in his NFL debut last week, Phillips had a team-high nine targets for the Titans and was targeted on 43% of his routes. And he should run plenty of routes in Week 2 on the road in Buffalo. Tennessee is a 10-point dog.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 2
Mike Evans at New Orleans
Mike Evans has a Super Bowl ring, multiple Pro Bowl selections and the NFL record for most consecutive 1,000-yard receiving seasons to start a career. He’s accomplished a lot in his career. Yet he still can’t beat Marshon Lattimore. At least not with any regularity. In the nine games Evans has played against the Saints cornerback since 2017, he’s been held to fewer than 65 yards seven times. He’s been held to four or fewer catches seven times, too. He has four games of fewer than 15 yards. And five games with two or fewer catches. It’s not good! And it’s not a coincidence. There’s an established track record there. Evans struggles with the Lattimore shadow, and now he is dealing with a calf injury. Assuming he plays, you’re probably still starting Evans week, but lower expectations. He is outside my top 10 for this week (and for every week he faces Marshon Lattimore).
Rashod Bateman vs. Miami
So much for Rashod Bateman getting all those Marquise Brown targets in Baltimore. It didn’t happen in Week 1, at least. Bateman received just a 16% target share in the opener. And, aside from his 55-yard touchdown reception — a big “aside,” I know — his only other catch went for four yards. Now this week he’s expected to receive the Xavien Howard shadow. Howard, by the way, held DeVante Parker to one catch for nine yards in Week 1. Are the Ravens and Xavien Howard conspiring against me to make me look foolish for picking Bateman as a 2022 fantasy breakout? Seems to me like they are. Not cool, guys. Not cool at all.
Tyler Lockett at San Francisco
When the Seattle Seahawks organization erects a statue outside of Lumen Field to commemorate their 2022 Week 1 win over Russell Wilson, Tyler Lockett probably won’t be one of the players cast in bronze. Three catches for 28 yards on four targets doesn’t get you on a statue. And if Lockett’s history with Geno Smith is any indicator, it might get him on some fantasy waiver wires before long. In four of five games Smith has started with Seattle, Lockett has three or fewer catches and 35 or fewer yards in four of them. He’s outside the top 40 wide receivers for me this week facing a tough defense on the road.
Hunter Henry at Pittsburgh
In his 18 games now with the Patriots, Henry has put up fewer than 40 receiving yards 14 times. In games he doesn’t score a touchdown, he averages just 5.4 FPPG. And in Week 1, he played only six more snaps than Jonnu Smith and saw one fewer target. So what we have here is a low-upside, touchdown-dependent tight end who might now be a TE2 on his own team, a team that also happens to have a bad offense. Feels pretty Hate list-y to me.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, once spent a year dead for tax purposes. He is the founder of FantasyLife.com and The FantasyLife App (FantasyLifeApp.com)