The first thing you should know about the league is it has 32 teams. You heard me.
Thirty. Two.
Which is actually down from the 40 to 48 teams the league had in previous years.
It’s a workplace league, and the place is so obsessed with fantasy football that they had way too many people wanting to play. So to encourage workplace camaraderie and make sure everyone got to play, they created multiple leagues under one large umbrella league.
Four different leagues (aka divisions) of 8 teams each with identical league settings and scoring. Full PPR and a standard QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/K/DST starting line-up.
All NFL players are available in all four leagues. They run the regular season from Weeks 1-12, and then six of the eight teams in each league make the playoffs for Weeks 13-15, with the 1st and 2nd place teams getting byes. They play head-to-head until there’s a champion of each league after Week 15.
The four teams then play the semi-finals head to head in Week 16 with the champion determined in Week 17 (they keep those scores by hand).
That, my friends, is hardcore. I love a league like that with so many people in it. I love a league like that that happens at a large workplace, where it allows people that might not work closely together on a daily basis to get to know each other and makes the work environment that much more fun.
So this is a great league, but I haven’t even told you the most interesting part about it.
It’s Jimmy Fallon’s league.
Yes, it’s the official show league of “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.”
Think about that. So many people on Jimmy’s show wanted to play fantasy football that they had to create this massive, tournament-style league.
Which is very cool. But not nearly as cool as this fact (speaking entirely for myself here):
It’s one of the reasons I was able to be a guest on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.”
Yes. You read that correctly.
As you may have seen me not shut up about, er, mention on social media, I, ahem, made my “Tonight Show” debut this past Tuesday night on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.”
Normally this is the part of the story where I make some self-deprecating remark, making fun of myself, so as to try and undercut and make it seem like it wasn’t a big deal.
But on this one, I just want to be nakedly honest and own it.
It was (and is) a really really big deal to me.
I feel like I say this a lot these days, but ten days ago I got an absolutely bonkers email.
“Fallon taping: Matthew – Please see attached for info about The Tonight Show on 9/6. Let’s discuss!”
And attached is, well, an invitation and instructions about COVID protocols for being a guest on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.”
WHAT?
Let me rephrase.
WHAT WHAT WHAT!?
After some discussion with my producer that sent the email, I found out this was not, in fact, a prank. That “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon"… The most iconic of all late night talk shows… the flagship of NBC’s late night offerings… the highly rated show that every movie star makes sure to stop by … the show with a huge 30 million subscribers on YouTube wanted to talk to…. me. A fantasy football analyst. As a guest. Not as some one-line cameo in a sketch, but actually as a legit, walk through the curtain, sit down with Jimmy and talk to him as a guest.
HOLY @#$%.
I mean the last month of my life has already been the best four weeks of my professional career and now this? I’m speechless.
I’m also freaking out a bit.
I mean look, if you’re like, I don’t know, Robert Downey Jr. or The Rock or Taylor Swift I assume you can just show up the day of, be your ridiculously charming self and call it a day. They do stuff like this every day of their life.
But I talk about guys like Kenneth Gainwell. Use phrases like average depth of target. Complain about Chris Godwin‘s ADP. Not exactly late night topics.
I called my good friend Brian Teta for advice. Brian is the Executive Producer of The View and spent years as a top producer for David Letterman. And he made a lot of sense. He said, “Just remember EVERYONE watches The Tonight Show. It’s as broad an audience as possible. Assume maybe 25% of the audience knows who Cooper Kupp is.”
Which makes total sense and is great advice.
But now I got to figure out what to talk about.
When I told my wife she was very excited. But then she quickly asked a question I hadn’t thought about. “What are you gonna wear?”
My typical strategy of trying to find the cleanest t-shirt I got is not gonna cut it here. So now I gotta figure out how I’m gonna look.
And then adding to all that, I find out who the other guests will be on the night I am there. Hillary and Chelsea Clinton and Offset.
Three household names.
And, um, me.
I thought of that old Sesame Street song. “One of these things is not like the other. One of these things doesn’t belong.”
But I decide not to dwell on any of that. Instead, I focus on this: “The Tonight Show” is filled with professionals, and they know their show and audience better than anyone.
They have confidence in me so, you know, I should have confidence in myself.
They’ve decided to put me on the air and give me the opportunity, so let’s focus on making it as good as possible.
Because it’s an amazing opportunity.
I’ve been really lucky to do some incredible things in my life. But for the most part, they are in the world of sports.
But not this.
This is the world of entertainment. This is network TV. This is “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.”
This is a very big deal to me. Seriously, not gonna try to play it cool. I was and am really really stoked.
I don’t take the opportunity for granted, so I think… let’s get to work.
I reach out to the great Amy Acton for help with an outfit, and we figure out an outfit. And by we, I mean she does it entirely herself and I just stand there like an idiot going, “Wow that looks cool!”
The Fallon Show assigns a great producer to my segment (shout out to Brett Harris!) and we brainstorm some areas Jimmy can ask about, his fantasy draft that night being one of them of course. (Jimmy was self deprecating on the show about his fantasy football acumen for laughs, but the truth is he won his league last year. Ultimately he lost in the larger playoffs to James Poyser from The Roots. Roman Urbanski, Jimmy’s cue card guy, actually won the whole thing last year).
So that was cool to know and gave me a sense of comfort, knowing Jimmy was a fantasy football player himself and was a big supporter of me coming on the show in the first place.
Day of and of course I am nervous.
But my wife, oldest son and agent come with me to the show and it helps calm my nerves. We are shown to my dressing room, and my producer Brett comes by to check on me and go over a few last minute details about the segment and talk me through logistics. And then Jimmy himself pops by to say hi. He meets my wife and son, we take some pictures, we talk about NBC and kids and he’s exactly what’d you expect by watching him on TV. Nice and charming and funny and interested. Just great. And after meeting him I totally relax. I realize there is nothing to worry about and I should just enjoy the moment.
Which I totally did. The segment happens, it just flies by and I was thrilled with how it came out. You can watch it yourself on YouTube here:
When it aired people were so kind. I particularly loved a tweet from my friend JJ Zachariason who wrote:
Anytime someone questions what I do for a living, I'm just going to remind them that a fantasy football analyst was once a guest on The Tonight Show. Thanks for that, @MatthewBerryTMR. (And a big congrats!)
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) September 7, 2022
Thank you for that, JJ. I feel the same way. Because as I have said many times, my job on this earth is not done until every man, woman and child is playing fantasy football. And getting to do “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon” was a great step in that direction.
I can’t thank the entire Fallon staff enough – they sent me Jimmy team’s after the draft, which I graded here:
.@MatthewBerryTMR grades @JimmyFallon’s Fantasy Football draft! How’d he do? 👀 #FallonTonight pic.twitter.com/M27SHpKuUG
— The Tonight Show (@FallonTonight) September 8, 2022
And I thank you for finding me here on Rotoworld and NBCSportsEdge.com. As we meander slowly into the first week of the season, may your season go as awesome as my experience on Fallon was. May all your back-ups become starters, may all your flex plays work out, and may all your Monday Night Miracles come through.
Let’s get to it.
As always, this is not a start/sit column but rather a column about players I think will exceed (“love”) or fall short (“hate”) of expected production. For specific start/sit advice please check my ranks to see where I have players ranked in relation to each other. Also, be sure to tune in to Fantasy Football Happy Hour every day at Noon ET on Peacock. Full episodes and clips are available on demand on Peacock and the NFL on NBC YouTube page. It’s also available as a podcast wherever you get your podcasts.
And hey – THIS SUNDAY – 11 am ET – on Peacock, you’ll be able to see myself, Michael Smith, Jay Croucher and many surprise guests and familiar faces on Fantasy Football Pregame as we get you set for the day in fantasy and betting from 11 am until kickoff. Please join us.
Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love in Week 1:
Jalen Hurts at Detroit
I can’t remember if I’ve mentioned this before, but I had a part in the 2019 blockbuster “Avengers: Endgame,” the biggest blockbuster in the history of the world. Actually, I guess I have probably mentioned it once or twice because several times a day someone says to me: “Hey, Matthew. Enough about ‘Avengers: Endgame’ already. That was three years ago. Move on. Please. I can’t take it.” And you know what? Maybe I WILL stop mentioning it all the time … because I WAS ON “THE TONIGHT SHOW” THIS WEEK, BABY! So, yes, I’ll stop mentioning “Avengers: Endgame” because for the next few weeks I am instead going to work “The Tonight Show” into every conversation! How about that?! Be careful what you wish for! So anyway, what does this have to do with Jalen Hurts? Uhhhh … how about this: while I will take a break from talking about “Avengers: Endgame,” I will NOT take a break from singing the praises of Jalen Hurts. I was hyping him leading into last season, and this season he has been elevated all the way to “Ride or Die” status. I love him that much ... and I love him especially heading into this Week 1 matchup against the Lions. In his Week 8 contest against the Lions a season ago, Hurts had 71 rushing yards. Detroit also allowed a league-worst 66 deep completions last season while Hurts threw deep at the third-highest rate. Trust me, I was telling everyone I could about Jalen Hurts this week. In the green room. Of “The Tonight Show.” A show that I was on.
Tom Brady at Dallas
Speaking of an incredibly handsome older man who is a huge get for any late night show, let’s talk about Tom Brady. A season ago, Brady led the NFL in passing touchdowns, passing yards and passing attempts. He also led all quarterbacks with nine games of 25-plus fantasy points. And, in Week 1 last season, he put up 379 yards and four touchdowns on the Dallas defense. I hear you on the offensive line concerns and a good Dallas defense, but I’m not betting against Tom Brady in prime time right here on NBC. Tom Brady has shown no signs of slowing down at age 45, which makes him two years younger than Jimmy Fallon. A person I recently met.
Russell Wilson at Seattle
New job. Beautiful wife. Has appeared on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.” Wow, Russell Wilson and I are basically the same person. People say it all the time. But putting all bias aside for my clear doppelgänger, Wilson is an easy call for my Week 1 Love list in a #RevengeGame against a Seahawks defense that allowed the second-most passing yards last year. Russ always plays well in Seattle – since 2019 he’s averaged 22.4 points per game at home (vs. 18.3 on the road). Yes, he’s in a different jersey this week, but he’s still home in Seattle. If you think Russ doesn’t want to show up the Seahawks in a big way then you haven’t been paying attention.
Others receiving votes: The Falcons allowed touchdown passes at the fourth-highest rate last season, which sets up well for a big return in Week 1 from a quarterback who loves to throw deep: Jameis Winston … Longtime readers of mine will say that I am biased towards my favorite team. Nonsense! I have never ONCE put a member of the Washington Commanders on the Love list before! Look it up. So bias has nothing to do with liking Carson Wentz this week at home against Jacksonville, which allowed the second-highest completion percentage last year. And let’s be honest. This is likely the only time I will be able to put Wentz on the love list … I don’t think Baker Mayfield will try to plant a Panthers flag on Cleveland’s sideline … probably … but I do think he’ll land a few deep balls against a Browns defense that ranked bottom-10 in touchdown rate last year.
Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 1:
Tua Tagovailoa vs. Patriots
One of my long-time producers here at NBC Sports, and previously at ESPN, is named Bryan Rubin. I call him B-Rubes. You can’t even begin to imagine the creative process that led to me landing on that nickname. Anyway, Bryan is a HUGE Miami sports fan. Dolphins, Panthers, Heat, the baseball one. He loves them all. So it gives me great pleasure to tell him that I hate his quarterback. Not personally, just as a fantasy option this week. Yes, he has new weapons and a new coach. But he’s still facing Bill Belichick. In the three games Tua has played against Bill, he has fewer than 205 passing yards and 1 or fewer passing touchdowns in all three. He averages just 15.7 points per game vs New England, and that is even with the fact he has three rushing touchdowns against them (hard to bank on those).
Matt Ryan at Houston
Even though Matt Ryan will be an upgrade in Indianapolis over Carson Wentz, the greatest quarterback in Commanders history, I don’t love him this week in his Colts debut. I know people might see Houston on the schedule and be excited about a sneaky spot start, but in the two games against the Texans last year, the Colts averaged 37 rush attempts. They didn’t need to throw as Wentz averaged fewer than 191 yards and 22 pass attempts a game.
Running Backs I Love in Week 1:
Alvin Kamara at Atlanta
Alvin Kamara says he saves all of his NFL income and instead lives off of his endorsement money. Smart man. I also have never spent any of my NFL income and instead plan to live off of my DFS winnings from playing Alvin Kamara this week against the Falcons. Getting Jameis Winston back is great. Last year, Kamara averaged a 22.5% target share and 19.7 points a game in the seven games Jameis played (vs. 16.5 points and a 19.7% target share without him). Kamara was routinely drafted in the mid-to-late second round this year, and I continue to think that was nuts (I had him top six). He makes me look smart this week with a high-volume game. Kamara is an easy top-five play for me this week.
Aaron Jones/AJ Dillon at Minnesota
In all the talk this offseason about Aaron Rodgers’ depleted receiving corps … and Aaron Rodgers’ global sojourns … and his podcast appearances … and relationships … and tattoos … and [40 minutes later] … and enemas, there hasn’t been enough focus on Green Bay’s backfield. It’s kind of awesome. Maybe the best in the NFL. And so I’m in on both Aaron Jones AND AJ Dillon this week on the road in Minnesota. No Davante Adams and Allen Lazard is either out or will be limited, so expect a heavy dosage of both running backs in this one. Jones averaged over 25 points a game in games Davante Adams missed in the Matt LaFleur era, and Dillon averaged 19 points per game last year vs, Minnesota, including over 80 yards in both games.
Antonio Gibson vs. Jacksonville
Again: no bias involved here. I have NEVER put a Commanders player on the Love list before in my life. (Wentz only got a “others receiving votes” mention, so there.) And even though Antonio Gibson‘s fantasy stock dropped this offseason due to the dreaded “timeshare” word, I love him in this Week 1 matchup against the Jaguars. The Jags gave up the third most rushing touchdowns last year and were bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed. With not a lot of running back depth behind him at the moment, Gibson should get a lot of work in this one as Ron Rivera and Scott Turner know they need to get him going in a big way after an offseason in which his ego may certainly have been bruised.
Others receiving votes: Dallas’ opener against Tampa Bay doesn’t set up as a big Ezekiel Elliott game. Last season the Bucs allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs. But they also allowed the second-most receptions to backs in 2021. Hello, Tony Pollard. Pollard, by the way, had a career-high 70.4 scrimmage yards per game last season … Another pass-catching back I like in Week 1 is Chase Edmonds against a Patriots defense that was bottom-five in receiving yards and yards per reception allowed to running backs last season. Edmonds ranked eighth among backs in targets per game last season and averaged 15.7 FPPG in his eight games in 2021 with 10-plus touches … John Harbaugh said this week that J.K. Dobbins has a “chance” to play on Sunday. Lamar Jackson said Dobbins is “weeks away.” Whatever. My guess is Dobbins doesn’t play this week, which is why I love taking a chance on the upside of Mike Davis facing a Jets run defense that allowed the most rushing touchdowns to running backs last year.
Running Backs I Hate in Week 1:
David Montgomery vs. San Francisco
Honestly, David Montgomery‘s inclusion on the Hate list isn’t due to the usual reason I put David Montgomery on the Hate list: that I simply don’t think he or his offensive line is all that good at football. No, you see Montgomery is on the Hate list this week because he’s facing a 49ers defense that allowed the second-fewest yards per carry to running backs last season. See? I think David Montgomery will due just as poorly as any back against San Francisco. It’s basically a compliment.
Breece Hall vs. Baltimore
Zach Wilson isn’t playing Sunday against the Ravens, but at least Jets fans can look forward to the debut of their new star running back, right? Eh. Pre-season usage was concerning for Hall, and even if he gets a lot of playing time, this is going to be a tough introduction to the NFL, playing on the road against a Ravens defense that allowed the third-fewest yards per carry to running backs last season. Hey, there’s always next week/year/decade/century to get excited about, Jets fans!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire at Arizona
Edwards-Helaire remains atop the running back depth chart in Kansas City, but the additions of Isiah Pacheco and bringing back Jerick McKinnon this offseason (plus RoJo?) suggest CEH’s role is anything but secure. I mean it’s not like he was awesome last year, either. CEH had just a 7.4% target share (41st among running backs that played at least 10 games) and only two games with multiple red zone carries. So until we see exactly what his role is in the revamped Kansas City offense, I’m not putting too much faith in his fantasy production. CEH is outside my top 25 this week. More like Clyde Edwards-BEWARE, amiright? Whatever. It’s Week 1. I used my good jokes on Fallon. Just move along. Nothing to see here.
Pass Catchers I Love in Week 1:
A.J. Brown at Detroit
Want to hear something interesting? A very good friend of mine, maybe my BEST friend in the whole wide world, drafted A.J. Brown in the third round this season. And I love the pick. Especially this week because Brown’s Eagles debut is against a Lions defense that will be better this year but still allowed an NFL-high 66 deep receptions last year. They’ll be better but not so much better that they are going to shut down Jalen Hurts’ No. 1 target. By the way, the very good, personal friend of mine I referenced earlier in this write-up? His name is Jimmy Fallon. (You didn’t really think I was going to move on from “The Tonight Show” references, right?)
JuJu Smith-Schuster at Arizona
After a long absence due to injury and also from Ben Roethlisberger rarely throwing the ball more than 1.07 yards downfield over his last few seasons, I would like to welcome JuJu Smith-Schuster back to the Love list! (Don’t worry, I’ll also post this news on TikTok so JuJu sees it.) Look, I’m by no means predicting Smith-Schuster will equal Tyreek Hill‘s production for the Chiefs, but all indications out of Kansas City are that JuJu will be Patrick Mahomes’ No. 1 wide receiver. That’s huge. And Smith-Schuster has a chance to make an equally huge KC debut against an Arizona defense that allowed more touchdown passes to wide receivers than any other team last year.
Marquise Brown vs. Kansas City
If I need help getting something down from a high shelf, I’m probably not asking Marquise Brown and Kyler Murray. But if I’m trying to win Week 1 of the 2022 fantasy season? You can do a lot worse. Murray led all quarterbacks in completion rate on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield last year, while the Chiefs were bottom-five in both yards and touchdowns allowed on deep passes last season. With DeAndre Hopkins out, Brown is Murray’s top deep threat. I have him as a top 15 wide receiver in Week 1.
T.J. Hockenson vs. Philadelphia
Outside of the top-tier guys, tight end is a touchdown-dependent position in fantasy. It’s frustrating. That is, it’s frustrating if your tight end is not playing the Philadelphia Eagles. Last season the Eagles allowed a tight end touchdown in 11-of-17 games. And not only did the Eagles give up the most touchdowns to tight ends last season, they gave up the most receptions to the position, too. T.J. Hockenson ranked third among tight ends in receptions per game last season (5.1) and went for 10 receptions and 89 yards on the Eagles in Week 8. That all means Hockenson is squarely on the Love list this week facing the City of TE Love.
Others receiving votes: I’m not going to argue that the Jaguars are overpaying for the service of Christian Kirk, but you don’t have to pay him a dollar to put him on your fantasy roster. The Jaguars ranked top five in both wide receiver target share and pass rate last season, while Kirk averaged 15.0 FPPG in his nine games with six-plus targets … Hollywood Brown’s departure from Baltimore leaves 145 targets up for grabs, and Rashod Bateman will be the clear beneficiary. In Week 1 he faces a Jets team that allowed the second-highest aDOT to wide receivers a season ago. In the same game, I like Isaiah Likely as a deep tight end play … George Kittle‘s injury misfortune is bad for the 49ers in their opener against the Bears but good for Brandon Aiyuk managers. Chicago allowed the most touchdowns on deep passes last season along with the fifth-highest catch rate on deep balls. Trey Lance plays a much more vertical game than Jimmy Garoppolo, and that’s Aiyuk’s strength. I have him as a top 35 play in Week 1. … I’m not suggesting that a Jacoby Brissett-David Njoku stack is the path to fantasy glory, but tight ends did get a 28% target share in Brissett’s seven games with the Dolphins last season. And Njoku was tied for third among all tight ends in end zone target share last season. That’s why I have Njoku as a top 15 tight end in Week 1.
Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 1:
Michael Thomas at Atlanta
Where to start with how I hate Michael Thomas this week? I can give you ancient history: when Thomas last played in 2020, he had fewer than 10 fantasy points in three of his seven games and fewer than five fantasy points in two of those games. I can give you more recent history: Thomas didn’t play for the entirety of the 2021 season. And I can give you bad news about the present, too: This week Thomas faces likely A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward shadows on the perimeter. Not great! Even if Thomas eventually regains some of the form we saw in 2019 in the future, rust plus a bad opening matchup put him outside my top 30 wide receivers for Week 1.
Amari Cooper at Carolina
I do not like Amari Cooper‘s trend lines. Last season his 19% target share was a career low, and his 57.6 yards per game was his lowest since 2017. And Cooper is suiting up for a team with a quarterback who is much less efficient than the one he had in Dallas and an offense that is significantly more run-heavy. So what’s to like about Cooper heading into Week 1? Well, among Cleveland’s big offseason additions, he at least didn’t cause anyone to cancel their season tickets.
Mike Gesicki vs. New England
Mike Gesicki has a terrible matchup in Week 1. Last season, the Patriots allowed the fewest receptions and yards to tight ends as well as the lowest catch rate to the position. But it’s more than that. According to one report, the Dolphins find Gesicki to be a bad fit and are shopping him around. Do you really want to start a guy in fake football whose real football team doesn’t even want to start him? I mean, that’s even crazier than yours truly not being included in this “Avengers: End Game” Marvel franchise recap song that ran on “The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon,” a show I just appeared on. And, scene.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, is the founder of FantasyLife.com, the free Fantasy Life newsletter and the Fantasy Life App (FantasyLifeApp.com). He is just as surprised at you that he didn’t mention any of these things when he was on The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon.
