“This is a weak draft.”
It’s the thing most commonly said about the 2024 NBA Draft — and scouts will tell you that’s right (as long you are talking about the top of the draft). There are no surefire future All-Stars and no lock franchise cornerstones.
It reminds people of the 2013 NBA Draft when the Cavaliers took Anthony Bennett with the No. 1 pick. The remaining top five were Victor Oladipo (a two-time All-Star showing real potential until injuries derailed him), Otto Porter Jr., Cody Zeller and Alex Len.
However, farther down that 2013 draft board were CJ McCollum (10th), Giannis Antetokounmpo (15th) and Rudy Gobert (27th).
Who are the future All-Stars out of this year’s NBA Draft? Here are my seven guys most likely to break out and become stars, based on conversations with scouts and watching some film. I’ll add that if you believe the best shooters are the guys to trust, Dalton Knecht and Rob Dillingham are your guys.
1) Stephon Castle
Casual fans remember Castle as the guy who scored 36 points on 10-of-16 shooting in the Final Four, helping UConn to its second consecutive national title. However, he was on the radar of NBA front offices much earlier because not only did he have potential, but also he bought into Dan Hurley’s plan and sacrificed numbers to help his team win.
Castle is a 6’6” combo guard with a diverse skill set who could be a breakout star if drafted in the right situation (such as in San Antonio feeding Victor Wembanyama). He defends well, plays with a high motor, knows how to pass and can get downhill.
Assertive performance from Stephon Castle helping UConn advance to the national championship game, showing scoring prowess in several areas along with intense defense. 21 points for the projected lottery pick freshman. pic.twitter.com/Z1aijNw9s7
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 7, 2024
The question about Castle is his shot — the form looks good, but that doesn’t matter if the shots don’t go in. However, in a running theme in this draft, if a team can develop his shot it will have drafted part of its backcourt for the next decade.
2) Tidjane Salaun
Salaun, a 6’9” wing out of France, who several scouts thought was the highest upside bet in this draft, but he may not fit the thematic timeline of this story — it could be after 2027 before he develops into an All-Star (if he gets there). Salaun is still 18 but has the makings of an NBA body (he could add a little more weight, but is close), with the kind of size and athleticism scouts drool over. He absolutely passes the eye test of an NBA forward. There’s just a lot of development to do, especially on the offensive end — his shot needs work and there are questions about his feel for the game. Defensively he shows promise.
In a draft without a sure-thing star, a team with a longer timeline can roll the dice on Salaun, work to develop him, and maybe, in a handful of years, have one of the All-Stars and steals of this draft.
3) Zaccharie Risacher
It’s kind of obvious to put the guy projected to go No. 1 overall in a number of mock drafts on our list, but you can’t put together a list of the potential stars out of this draft without Risacher. (With the nature of this draft, he could go No. 1 or fall to the Spurs at 4, but he’s not getting below that point.)
Zaccharie Risacher is a tantalizing prospect who features several key ingredients for which NBA teams actively scour the globe, as a 6-8 wing who can handle, pass and shoot, has instincts and length defensively, and is clearly oozing with fluidity, skill and feel. Highlights: pic.twitter.com/rLtiXsB9Ff
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) July 20, 2022
Every team is looking for versatile, switchable wings and Risacher, a 6’8” forward out of France, has the size and athleticism of prototypical NBA wing. He showed good on-ball defending playing in France and averaged 13.1 points a game in the EuroCup and 10.1 points a game in the French league. This guy has a high ceiling if his playmaking can develop and his jumper can take a step forward. The potential for an All-Star wing in a few years is there in the right development program. He’s also attractive because he likely isn’t a bust.
4) Ron Holland
The best player on last season’s G-Legue Ignite team, Holland is one of the better pure athletes in the draft, a guy who averaged 19.5 points and 6.7 rebounds a game last season. He plays hard on the defensive end and showed the ability to create shots, although he had a lot of ugly turnovers as well — were those because of the offensive load on his shoulders? Is it because of his youth (he is still 18)? Does that improve if he’s not the No. 1 option (which he would not be in the NBA)?
WHAT A STAT LINE! 😳
— NBA G League Ignite (@gleagueignite) June 21, 2024
flashback to when Ron Holland dropped a CAREER-HIGH 32 points, 10 rebounds, 6 assists, and 6 steals against the G League’s regular season champions. pic.twitter.com/pYGRUjpx77
Holland fits the mold of a few guys on this list — All-Star potential is there if he can develop a consistent jump shot and limit his turnovers. That said, he’s young and explosive, put him in the right setting could become something special.
5. Alex Sarr
He’s not the French center we saw drafted a year ago, but Sarr is a French center with real potential. He’s 7'1" and mobile, a player whose strength is on the defensive end — he can be a high-flying rim-protector who can also switch out on the perimeter and hold his own. The questions about Sarr’s game are on the other end of the court, scouts see his potential to become a floor-spacing big who thrives in a pick-and-pop, plus he can finish around the rim. He’s also a long way from that and has a lot of development to do.
While nothing is set at the top of this draft, Sarr going No. 2 to Washington is as close to a lock as it gets.
6. Reed Sheppard
There are scouts that are really high on him and his potential, but it’s also not universal. He can flat-out shoot the ball — he hit 52% from 3 for Kentucky — and is a high-motor disruptive defender on the other end of the court. He’s not tall (6'3") long or super athletic by NBA standards, but he overcame that in college to thrive. Some scouts think he can do that at the NBA level (even if saying he’s a future All-Star may be a big ask).
If Houston keeps the No. 3 pick (and they are actively trying to trade it) expect them to take Sheppard.
7. Jared McCain
Maybe All-Star is a little bit of a reach, but a player who shot 41% on 5.8 3-point attempts a game for Duke means he can knock it down and that has real value. Scouts are generally uncomfortable giving player comps, but discussion around McCain can often swing to mentions of Seth Curry. McCain is a knock-down shooter who can put the ball on the floor, made good decisions and made up for his smaller frame with energy on defense. It’s easy to see him fitting in the NBA and maybe becoming a highly coveted player.
