Free agency moved fast in the NBA (as it does now, this is a tampering league) and there were few surprises as the biggest names — Draymond Green, Kyrie Irving, Kyle Kuzma, Austin Reaves, and the list goes on — re-signed with their previous teams.
The drama is in the trade market, where James Harden opted-in with Philadelphia then asked for his third trade in fewer than three years, and later in Portland Damian Lillard asked out after years of speculation this was coming. Let’s break down what we know for sure and where those situations stand (as of the morning of July 3):
• In both the Harden and Lillard cases, those players (and fans) want things to move quickly, but the front offices have shown patience and a willingness to wait out the best offer. Several reports from people with strong connections to the 76ers suggested the idea of Harden starting the season with the team is not out of the question — remember GM Daryl Morey did exactly that with Ben Simmons, waiting until he got the trade package he wanted. Neither Portland nor Philadelphia is going to do a deal just to get it done, this could drag out for a while.
• Harden’s preferred destination is to return home to Los Angeles and join the Clippers, who apparently are going to ignore the new salary cap, at least for a year, to chase a ring in the Kawhi Leonard/Paul George era. However, the Clippers would prefer to trade for Lillard — at this point in their careers, Lillard is clearly the superior player — so Harden trade talks slowed a little while the Los Angeles front office explored the possibility. (L.A.'s challenge is their trade offer may get them in the Harden ballpark with Terance Mann in the deal, but it’s not Lillard level.)
• Lillard has made it clear his preferred destination is Miami.
• That has not stopped other teams — Clippers, Timberwolves, Pelicans and Celtics — from calling to see what the price to acquire Lillard would be, Chris Haynes said on the #thisleague UNCUT podcast. The focus, however, remains on Miami.
• The Heat’s best trade package for Lillard is Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, a couple of first-round picks, a pick swap, and young players (Nikola Jovic or Jaime Jaquez Jr.). In this scenario, the Blazers likely want to send out Jusuf Nurkic, so the Heat also send Kyle Lowry back to the Northwell.
That’s not enough for Portland — they reportedly want a “star-level” package — so a third team will need to be brought in such as Brooklyn, San Antonio or Oklahoma City. That third team would take on Herro’s contract — four years, $120 million kicking in this year — because Portland already has a similar player on a similar contract (Anfernee Simons), league sources told NBC Sports.
• The surest sign Tyler Herro will be traded: he removed the words “Miami Heat guard” from his Twitter bio.
• Would Lillard’s request of one specific team he wishes to play for scare off others? Anthony Chiang and Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald said a source say yes. I don’t see it that way, but the Portland organization’s relationship with Lillard is such that they will do everything reasonably within their power to make him happy. Miami is getting the first real chance at this. If that falters, other teams are willing to pounce without hesitation.
• Philadelphia is not going to be part of the Lillard sweepstakes — and you can rule out the idea of a three-team trade that sees Philly landing Lillard and Harden to Miami — because the 76ers will not put Tyrese Maxey into any trade offer, reports Jake Fischer of Yahoo Sports. This is the smart play by Philly — Maxey should be part of the future with Joel Embiid, you don’t give up All-Star level players in their third year.
Have heard pretty consistently that the Sixers have no interest in putting Tyrese Maxey in any trade conversations, including a potential pursuit for Damian Lillard. Philadelphia, and other teams, are of the belief the Miami Heat are Lillard's preferred destination.
— Jake Fischer (@JakeLFischer) July 1, 2023
• The Knicks have assets but are not aggressively pursuing either a Harden or Lillard trade right now, reports Ian Begley at SNY.TV.
• As noted by Marc Stein (and mentioned here before), one interesting team as a third trade partner for Lillard — or to jump in and try and trade for him directly if Heat talks fall apart — is the Utah Jazz. They have the assets to make a deal, and the pitch is Lillard coming back to Utah, where he attended college. Feels like a long shot, but it’s not out of the question.
• On paper, Brooklyn remains the team that could put together the package for Lillard — and because he is tight with Mikal Bridges, there is hope he would be happy with it. Thanks to all the Suns picks the Nets got in the Kevin Durant trade, plus their own picks in 2028 and 2030, the Nets could offer five firsts, plus some young players (Cameron Thomas?). Ben Simmons’ contract and Instagram account would need to be in the deal to balance out the salaries.
• Some fans on Twitter have turned on Lillard after his trade request because... well, it’s Twitter. Given a little distance and anonymity, people will turn on puppies and ice cream. All of that confused Lillard.
It’s in my blood to take the high road. I’d love to hear what fans are turning on… have I mislead them? Or anyone ? Fill me in https://t.co/rkn7irDlpo
— Damian Lillard (@Dame_Lillard) July 2, 2023
• The one shadow looming over GM Daryl Morey and the 76ers through the Harden trade talks — how does Joel Embiid feel? This is the MVP in his prime and he wants to win a ring now. To be clear, Embiid has not asked for a trade, and he knows some of the Sixers playoff struggles fall on his shoulders (in part due to postseason fluke injuries). Embiid is a loyal guy, he’s got some Lillard in him, and there is nothing imminent. However, just like with Luka Dončić in Dallas or any team where they have a superstar but have not won, the clock is always ticking. Philly needs to get back enough in any trade that they can contend at the highest levels (even if that means flipping picks or other parts of the trade package for more win-now players). That’s why Philly has to get Terance Mann back in any Clippers talks.
• Could the Bulls — who shopped Zach LaVine at the trade deadline — jump into the Harden sweepstakes? Jake Fischer at Yahoo Sports said to keep an eye on it. Maybe, but doesn’t that feel like a lateral move for Chicago? And if Harden is unhappy there, it just becomes a mess and they end up having to trade him. Again.
