Victor Wembanyama is the safe bet to win Rookie of the Year. He looks to be a generational talent who will get plenty of touches in San Antonio, plus he will make a defensive impact from Day 1. There is good reason Wembanyama is the clear betting favorite to win ROY — he is -115 at our partner Draft Kings and nobody else is better than +300 — because his combination of talent and opportunity will be tough to top.
However, he can be topped. The Spurs will slow play his development, which could open the door for others to grab the award.
Here are three other players with a chance to beat out Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year
Scoot Henderson (Portland)
Here is my pick to win the award, for a couple of the same reasons Wembanyama is the favorite — talent and opportunity.
With Damian Lillard likely traded before training camp starts (or at least early in camp), the Trail Blazers are going to give the keys to the car to Henderson — and he showed in his limited Summer League run how ready he is to handle that responsibility.
Scoot Henderson with the blow-by and reverse... sheesh.
— NBA (@NBA) July 7, 2023
Watch him take on fellow top-5 pick Amen Thompson in their respective #NBA2KSummerLeague debuts on ESPN! pic.twitter.com/6BctvBz0wd
Two years playing for the G-League Ignite has given Henderson experience playing against men, and because of that the game is moving more slowly for him than other rookies. His head is always up looking for the pass, he makes smart decisions with the ball, and he has a bag of hesitation and other moves to create space for his shot. Combine that with explosive athleticism and you have a guy who has a real shot to be Rookie of the Year.
Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City)
Holmgren has an advantage in the chase for Rookie of the Year beyond the skill set that got him drafted No. 2 a year ago — he will be playing in meaningful games.
Unlike Wembanyama and Henderson — whose teams are expected to struggle to rack up wins — the Thunder look like a playoff team led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (they made it through the play-in to be the eighth seed a season ago and will be improved this season). Holmgren brings two things the Thunder desperately need to the court: Rim protection and 3-point shooting. Because of that, he should get a lot of run and play a vital role on a team that should win in the mid-40s in games. That kind of exposure will see voters getting a long look at Holmgren later in the season, which could win him some votes.
Sasha Vezenkov (Sacramento)
We could go with Brandon Miller (Hornets) or Jarace Walker (Pacers) for the final spot on this list, but I’m not sold either of them will have the opportunity or put up the numbers needed to win the award.
Sasha Vezenkov will win over fans as a rookie. A 28-year-old rookie who won the EuroLeague MVP last season, but a rookie by the NBA’s definition. Vezenkov knows how to play the game, is an efficient scorer (shooting 39.8% from 3 last season for Olympiacos in EuroLeague play), and who is strong on the glass. Vezenkov will get opportunities with the Kings as the backup four behind Keegan Murray, plus he can play a little at the three. He will be getting regular minutes on a playoff
team.
Vezenkov is a smart bet to end up on an All-Rookie team and get some Rookie of the Year votes, and if a few things break his way… who knows?
