Want one key reason a flurry of trades is expected around the NBA in the coming weeks? This isn’t a strong free agent class, making trades is the best way to improve a team.
That’s not to say it are not some interesting, talented players available in free agency. It’s just that there is not much game-changing talent and those players are not expected to change teams. Plus, most of the teams with money to spend this summer — Houston, Orlando, San Antonio — aren’t chasing a huge star and a ring next season.
Still, there are some interesting developments worth watching. Let’s take a look at the 13 most intriguing free agents this summer.
(Note: This is not a ranking of the best free agents on the market, but rather the most interesting and potentially impactful free agent situations, the decisions that could have the biggest fallout.)
1. Draymond Green
Trading for Chris Paul was an all-in move for the Warriors, who want to run it back with their core (plus CP3) and chase banner No. 5 of the Stephen Curry era.
They need Draymond Green to have a shot at that title. Watch any Warriors basketball last season — during the regular season or playoffs — and it was obvious how critical Green is as the defensive quarterback for the team, plus as a ball-moving second shot creator in the half court. There was a reason the Warriors were +14 per 100 possessions last season with Green on the floor (stats via Cleaning the Glass). Trading Jordan Poole to Washington (to land CP3) makes Golden State’s path clear: They plan to bring Green back.
Enter the Sacramento Kings, who could make things interesting. With a couple of draft night moves the Kings freed up more than $30 million in cap space, they have a glaring need at the four, they need a defensive captain, and don’t forget they have an owner who used to own a piece of the Warriors and would love nothing more than to chip away at that dynasty. Sacramento could make a run at Green and ignore the fact that Green stomped on their center’s chest last season.
Sabonis is down after Draymond stepped on him. pic.twitter.com/6MwsNLT2Pj
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) April 18, 2023
Don’t bet on Sacramento getting anywhere. Green is expected to re-sign with the Warriors, something Marc Stein noted over the weekend. The question of money is the interesting one — Green opted out of $27.6 million, the Warriors would love him to take a little less annually for the security of multiple years (say three years, $80 million), but the threat of the Kings could offer Green a few extra bucks. It would force the Warriors to match, but they would because they can’t lose him now.
2. Fred VanVleet
VanVleet is going to get a raise from the $22.8 million he opted out of, the question is will the Raptors step up to pay that or is the All-Star guard going to be on the move?
There are suitors for VanVleet. Houston and Orlando are young, have cap space, want a floor general and have expressed interest. Does San Antonio want to see if the veteran will play with Victor Wembanyama? The Lakers have been a regular VanVleet rumor but that would require a sign-and-trade and there is a limited market — north of the border or anywhere else — for Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba. Also, a sign-and-trade hard caps the Lakers, which they don’t want. VanVleet’s best option may be to re-sign with the Raptors.
VanVleet averaged 19.3 points and 7.2 assists a game last season, is a solid defender, and brings championship experience to the table.
3. James Harden
Did a very positive meeting with new 76ers coach Nick Nurse turn the tide in the pursuit of Harden? Near the end of Philadelphia’s playoff run, league sources suggested Harden was likely headed back to Houston. That momentum has now swung toward Philadelphia. Doc Rivers being fired and Harden’s positive meeting with Nurse reportedly helped turn the tide.
Sixers fans may shrug at the return of Harden after his inconsistent playoff performances, but Philly would lose a major playmaker and scorer if he walked for nothing. It would create a void.
There is still the little matter of money. Harden opted out of his below-market $35.6 million and will want $40 million+ a season, but his game showed some decline and he will turn 34 before next season. How many years do the 76ers want to pay Harden near max money? The 76ers can’t lowball him because Harden has another option4. Kyrie Irving
4. Kyrie Irving
He is the best player on this list — 27 points a game on a ridiculous 63.4 percent true shooting for Dallas last season — and deserving of a max contract for what he does on the court.
But how many teams want to be in the Kyrie Irving business? And for how many years? While Irving has shown up to Lakers games and LeBron James is reportedly open to a reunion, the Lakers front office has already driven the “let’s sacrifice our depth for a star guard” road and is not doing it again (they also do not have a realistic way to land Irving). The Suns kicked the tires on an Irving trade at one point but do they really want to reunite Irving and Kevin Durant?
Irving is widely expected to re-sign in Dallas. After all the Mavericks gave up to get him and where they are with their roster rebuild, they cannot let him walk. The interesting question is contract years: Irving wants four, the Mavs probably want two. Do they settle at three?
5. Dillon Brooks
The Memphis Grizzlies are getting out of the Dillon Brooks business (especially now with Marcus Smart in town), but he remains one of the top on-ball perimeter defenders in the NBA. His game helps a lot of teams. Well, not the poking LeBron James part, or his erratic shooting, but if a team can cast him in a lower-usage offensive role and get him to accept it, he could be a big boost. Brooks wants to get paid more — and probably deserves more — than the mid-level exception of $12.4 million, but will anyone offer him that much? The Houston Rockets — a team in desperate need of more defense — are considered the frontrunner and have the money to pay him, but don’t be surprised if Utah, Detroit or a couple of other young teams lob a call and see if they can land Brooks.
6. Kyle Kuzma
Kuzma wisely opted out of his $13 million player option for next season, and while he may not get the $30 million a season he reportedly hopes for, he is in line for a massive raise. That money will not come from Washington, with its new management and a pivot toward a rebuild. However, the Wizards would love to do a sign-and-trade to get Kuzma to a team of his choosing and get back some draft picks and/or young players.
The Jazz and Mavericks are known to be interested in Kuzma, who averaged a career-high 21.2 points per game last season (but is not the most efficient scorer ever and would work better as a second or third option than a primary shot creator).
7. Austin Reaves
Where Reaves plays next season is not that interesting, the Lakers have made it clear they plan to match any offer — and they should after how he played this postseason.
Austin Reaves from half-court.
— NBA (@NBA) May 13, 2023
As seen in #PhantomCam 🎥 pic.twitter.com/JBVMKsvXSl
What is intriguing is how much he gets paid.
The Lakers have Reaves’ Early Bird rights, but because he is on a minimum contract (as an undrafted rookie two years ago) the max they can offer him is four years, $50.8 million. Another team looking for a young guard — Orlando? — can offer more, something closer to four years, $80 million. The Lakers can and would match it, but the Arenas rule would kick in, making it a poison pill contract. At that $80 million number, the Lakers still could only pay Reaves $11.4 million and $12.2 million the first two years of this hypothetical contract, then the final two years Reaves would make more than $27 million a season. It’s backloaded.
Can Reaves’ agent get another team to come in and pay the man?
8. Cameron Johnson
There are a lot of other GMs circling Johnson on their boards as the kind of stretch four everyone wants and they might chase, and the Nets have done their best to scare everyone off saying they would match any offer. The Nets have made it very clear they plan to keep him and Mikal Bridges and build around them in the future, but a few teams with cap space — hello Detroit Pistons — could come in over the top and try to poach Johnson. The Pistons reportedly wanted to pay Johnson in the four-year, $84 million range, would Detroit or another team up that offer?
9. Bruce Brown
He was critical as a role player in the Denver Nuggets’ run to the title, but he played himself out of the $6.5 million he was owed next season and wisely opted out. Denver wants him back but the most it can offer is $7.8 million next season under the terms of the CBA, while Brown’s market value starts at the $12.4 million mid-level exception and goes up. Other teams will pay it and Brown — who has made $15.2 million over his five-year career — would have difficulty walking away from that payday.
10. D’Angelo Russell
Russell presents a fallback option for the Lakers, one they likely need to avail themselves of. Lakers fans should be frustrated with Russell’s inconsistent playoffs, but the team needs secondary ball handlers and shot creators to take the load off LeBron James for the first 82 games to get them to the playoffs — Russell can do that. He averaged 17.4 points and 6.1 assists while shooting 41.4% from 3 for the Lakers last season. He doesn’t get to the rim enough, his defense is an issue, and he’s inconsistent, but over the grind of 82 games, the Lakers need guys like him who can get a bucket.
There is not a high demand for Russell around the league that will lead to a big payday the Lakers will not match. Los Angeles can keep Russell, and maybe trade him around the deadline for a better playoff fit.
11. Brook Lopez
Lopez is critical to what the Bucks did under former coach Mike Budenholzer, averaging 15.9 points per game, spacing the floor by shooting 37.4% from 3, and being a First Team All-Defense center. He is also 35 years old. How much do the Bucks want to pay him and for how many years? Milwaukee’s roster is a title contender, but it’s getting old and very expensive fast. Would Lopez accept three years, $60 million?
12. Max Strus
Strus (along with Gabe Vincent) was critical to the Miami Heat’s run to the NBA Finals, all while making $1.8 million. He is about to get a massive pay raise, likely around the mid-level exception ($12.4 million next season). Strus says he loves Miami and that the role teams are offering him will matter, but for a player who has earned less than $4 million total in his NBA career, he has to take the money. Whoever offers it. And that may not be Miami as their roster starts to get expensive with the Tyler Herro extension kicking in next season (the Heat also may prioritize keeping Vincent over Strus).
13. Jerami Grant
Portland traded a first-round pick to get Grant last summer and he delivered for them, averaging 20.5 points per game and shooting 40.1% from 3. While the Trail Blazers drafted Scoot Henderson, they are not looking to break up the core — meaning no Damian Lillard trade is on the table right now — and want to re-sign Grant. However, they don’t want to pay him the max of four-year, $112 million. Teams are eyeing Grant in free agency — Detroit and Indiana are rumored — so the Trail Blazers will have to pay enough to keep him.
(Honorable mention to Gabe Vincent, Khris Middleton and Russell Westbrook.)
