This is not a great year for fans who want to use the NCAA Tournament for NBA Draft scouting purposes — two of the consensus top six picks in this June’s NBA Draft are playing in March Madness. International players (Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr) are at the top of draft boards and other guys such as Matas Buzelis are coming from the G-League Ingnite.
However, there is also opportunity in what is generally considered a down draft year. Show something special under the bright lights of March and it can move a player up draft boards more than it might in most years. Teams are looking for players to bet on in this draft, here’s a chance for players to show they are worth the risk. Here are 10 players NBA front offices — and by extension NBA fans — should be watching. (This list is in roughly consensus order of when the players will be drafted).
Cody Williams, 6'8" forward, Colorado
Likely one of the first two American-born players taken in the draft (along with Duke’s Rob Dillingham), Cody is the brother of Oklahoma City standout Jalen Williams and looks like a top-five pick — someone fans of struggling teams should have their eye on. He’s a versatile, impressive wing defender who uses his seven-foot wingspan well. Williams has a good handle, is a strong passer, can play fast or in the half court, and has a high IQ game (he does a good job setting up KJ Simpson to be the finisher). He’s averaging 12.6 points a game but has been a little uneven at times, and while he’s shooting 42.1% from 3 he is only taking 1.8 per game. Can he flash some offensive game against Boise State and beyond? (First game vs. Boise State, Wednesday, 3/20, 9:10 ET, truTV.)
Ja’Kobe Walter, 6'5" wing, Baylor.
The potential is there: good size and athleticism for the wing, can shoot on the move, and has a fantastic feel for the game. However, consistency has not been, Walter has been up and down this season. While you can say a first-round matchup against Colgate may not be the biggest test Walter has faced, this is where the consistency test comes into play — how does Walter play under the pressure and bright lights? He’s projected as a top-10 guy, can he live up to the hype? (First game Friday, 3/22, vs. Colgate, 12:40 ET truTV.)
Kyle Filipowski, 6'11" center, Duke.
To me, Filipowski is a perfect example of why this is considered a down draft year. I don’t mean that as a knock on Filipowski, the Blue Devil’s stretch big is a quality prospect averaging 17.1 points and shooting 35% from 3. At times he has shown some handle, and he moves his feet well on defense — although he is best known for using his feet for “the trip” (did he learn that from fellow Duke alumni Grayson Allen?).
Kyle Filipowski sticks his leg out and trips Harrison Ingram, then pretends to stomp his shoes and walk it off like he's injured pic.twitter.com/PooO0rQF0c
— Kyle Boone (@kyletheboone) March 10, 2024
I like this quote Michael Scotto at Hoopshype got about him from a league executive: “I think Filipowski has a long career as an eighth or ninth guy. If he starts firing threes and knocking them down like Kelly Olynyk, I think that makes him more intriguing. Otherwise, if he’s a lone five that can’t shoot, has to play in the drop, and isn’t athletic, he’s going to be out of the league pretty fast.” Filipowski sums up this draft to me because despite all the questions and limitations with him at the next level, this guy is going in the top 10 come June. It’s that kind of year. (First game Friday, 3/22, vs. Vermont, 7:10 ET, CBS.)
Reed Sheppard, 6'2" guard, Kentucky
Scouts are divided on Sheppard — he’s likely to be taken late lottery — and you should watch and make up your own mind. He is a fast-rising prospect whose biggest strength may be he is a playmaker on the defensive end — despite not great size or length (6'3" wingspan) he is averaging 2.5 steals and almost a block a game. He is the Wildcat’s best defender and is shooting 52.5% from 3 this season with an incredibly quick release. He and the Wildcats’ other lottery player, Rob Dillingham, have been coming off the bench because... Calipari. It’s limited his minutes at times but Sheppard’s play is standing out as he averages 12.8 points and 3.9 assists a game.
The knock on him from an NBA perspective is size and length — he’s 6'2" with average wingspan and does not possess standout athleticism. Some scouts are unsure he can translate everything he does in college to the next level. Plus, he will have to play the point in the NBA, and we don’t have a lot of evidence on how he will perform in that role, but some team will take a chance on him. (First Game Thursday, 3/21 vs. Oakland, 7:10 ET, CBS.)
Stephon Castle, 6'6" guard, UConn
It can be challenging to parse out exactly how good Castle is playing on a loaded Huskies team looking to repeat as NBA champions, but he looks like a mid-first-round pick on most boards. The freshman has shown great potential on the defensive end, where his size and lateral quickness make him a switchable defender. He plays with a high motor. The question teams have for Castle — what fans should watch for — is just how ready is his offensive game for the next level? He’s averaging 10.8 points a game, but the 28.1% from 3 on a low volume has teams cautious. How long will it take for his game to become NBA ready? This is an upside play, but that could be the smart move in this draft. A good tournament helps Castle’s stock. (First game Friday, 3/22, vs. Stetson, 2:45 ET, CBS.)
Dalton Knecht, 6'7" forward, Tennessee
One of the tried and true rules of thumb in the NBA Draft: Take the best shooter on the board. Knecht, a senior, may be that guy this year. After two years at Northern Colorado, Knecht transferred to Tennessee and is shooting 39.7% from 3 on 6.2 attempts a game, averaging 21.1 points a game which are more impressive numbers when you consider he is the guy at the top of the scouting report for every team. Plus, his numbers went up in SEC games. There are questions about his athleticism and with that defense at the next level, but you don’t go wrong taking the best shooter on the board. Watch the Volunteers play and you’ll see why scouts think he has a future in the league. (First game Thursday, 3/21, vs. Saint Peter’s, 9:20 ET TNT.)
Johnny Furphy, 6'9" wing, Kansas
With Kevin McCullar out with a knee bone bruise, more falls on the shoulders of fellow wing player Johnny Furphy. He’s a rising star considered a project at the NBA level. He’s got the size and athleticism, plus his shooting has improved (35.4% from 3). Another player where a good outing under the bright lights of the tournament could get a team to think he is worth the best come the draft. (First game Thursday, 3/21, vs. Samford, 9:55 TBS.)
Yves Missi, 7'0" center, Baylor
Missi is a bit of a project at the NBA level but there is a clear role for his skill set — he’s going to be a rim-running big who rolls hard to the rim (or operates out of the dunker’s spot) and can finish alley-oops, plus he can protect the rim and defend a little in space. What has impressed teams is Missi’s continued growth and improvement — can he continue that and show his development against Colgate and potentially beyond in this tournament? That could help his rising draft stock. (First game Friday, 3/22, vs. Colgate, 12:40 truTV.)
Tyler Kolek, 6'3" guard, Marquette
A growing trend among contending NBA teams with expensive rosters — teams trying to navigate the new CBA and its aprons — is to draft older players who can step in and play a role right away on a rookie contract. Enter Kolek, who has turned himself into one of the best shooters in the draft (40.4% from 3 this season), plus is a great passer (7.6 assists a game) and a high IQ player. There is a role for him in the league as a shooter, but the question is, does he have the foot speed, the athleticism to defend at the next level? With the increased level of talent he and Marquette will face in the tournament, he can show scouts he can be effective on that end of the court. (First game Friday, 3/22, vs. Western Kentucky, 2 ET, TBS.)
Terrence Shannon Jr., 6'6" guard/wing, Illinois
Much like Marquette’s Kolek, Terrence Shannon could be an older player who can help now that playoff teams up against the tax apron might like because he can help immediately at an affordable price (he’s likely a second-round pick if selected). Shannon is older at 23 but comes with an NBA-ready body, NBA athleticism and an ability to defend 1-3.
However, he comes with two big question marks. One is on the court: His shooting. It’s a long-term issue he can help answer in the Tournament, but he has been steady this season (36.2% from 3). The more significant concern, the one that would have teams backing away from him until it is cleared up, is a rape charge from September 2023 in Kansas, a case that has yet to go to trial. No team will (or should) go near him unless he is cleared of those charges (and even if he is cleared in a court, plenty of teams will be hesitant). He may ultimately be undrafted because of it, but teams will be watching. (First game Thursday, 3/21, vs. Morehead state, 3:10 ET, truTV.)
