REGULAR SEASON RECORDS
Charlotte Bobcats: 43-39 (7 seed)
Miami Heat: 54-28 (2 seed)
KEY INJURIES
None.
OFFENSE/DEFENSE RANKINGS (points per 100 possessions)
Charlotte Bobcats: 101.2 (24th), Defense 101.2 (6th in the NBA)
Miami Heat: Offense 109 (2nd in the NBA), Defense 102.9 (11th in the NBA)
THREE KEYS TO THE SERIES
1. Al Jefferson: The Bobcats’ big free agent signing last summer is the reason the team finds itself in the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and just the second time since the franchise moved to Charlotte in 2004. Jefferson has been the anchor offensively, averaging 21.8 points and hauling down 10.8 rebounds per game. And that’s going to be a problem for Miami, considering that defending elite post players is where the team struggles most defensively. Jefferson will need to increase his output against the Heat’s soft front line defense, or at the very least, cause double teams defensively that open up shots for his teammates.
2. Healthy Heat: Miami played too many games this season at less than full strength, with players being shuffled in and out of the lineup to compensate over the long, 82-game grind of the regular season. But all 15 players practiced in advance of the first round matchup, and you can bet that Greg Oden will get some run defensively trying to slow Jefferson. Having Dwyane Wade available for the postseason push will obviously be a boost as well, but for Miami the goal here is to find some chemistry with its best players, and form a playoff rotation moving forward that it can rely on as the team moves deeper into the postseason.
3. How quickly does Miami flip the switch? It’s been a long regular season for the Heat, but now that the playoffs are here, it should theoretically be go time. No team has made it to the Finals four straight seasons in almost 30 years, and there’s a reason for that. For Miami to become the first, it will need to get to the more meaningful matchups as quickly as possible, while exerting the minimum amount of energy to do so. This Heat team hasn’t historically swept its playoff opponents, but if it can dispatch the Bobcats in four straight, it may give us an indication of juts how ready they are to begin their title defense.
PREDICTION
It really comes down to whether or not the combination of the Bobcats solid defense and Al Jefferson’s inside presence can combine to give the Heat fits for one or two games. It would take an extremely strange set of circumstances for Charlotte to earn four victories, and we’ll go with the more likely scenario that they manage to squeak out one instead.
Heat in 5.
