The theme of one-sided NBA Playoff games continues as the Finals opened with the Celtics routing the Mavericks.
Too much Kristaps Porzingis and Jaylen Brown for Luka Doncic and co. As we look ahead to Game 2, we do expect adjustments but not sure the ultimate result changes. As a result, here are a handful of sweats to consider.
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Game 2
Dallas Mavericks (+225) vs. Boston Celtics (-278)
Spread: Celtics -7 | O/U: 214.5
Boston Celtics 1H -4 (-108)
- Boston’s defense will continue to make life difficult for Doncic and until the Celtics fear anyone else on the Mavs, they can smother Luka
- Boston moves the ball on offense like few clubs in the entire Association. The result is open look after open look. No reason to expect that to change in Game 2.
- Have played this prop throughout the playoffs and it cashes religiously
- Would seriously consider the game spread except the Celtics do play with their food at times and make games closer than they need to be
Jayson Tatum H2H Rebounds -4.5 (-105) vs. Daniel Gafford
- This prop cashed with ease at -3.5 in Game 1
- If Dereck Lively can stay out of foul trouble, Gafford’s minutes surely will not increase
Sam Hauser OVER 0.5 Threes (-218)
- Hauser’s performance and results in Game 1 will earn him continued minutes in Game 2
- Aggressive player who has no fear firing from deep
- If Boston has another big lead late, he will play even more. He only needs one to cash this prop
Jayson Tatum OVER 5.5 Assists (-102)
- This number did not cash in Game 1 as Tatum finished with 5, but he lost out on 11 potential assists
- Tatum appears less focused on having to score “x” points per game and more focused on doing whatever it takes to win
Jaden Hardy OVER 3.5 Points (-148)
- Hardy scored 13 points in Game 1 in only 11 minutes
- He scored 11 in the series finale (Game 5) against Minnesota in just 8 minutes
- He scored 13 in 12 minutes in Game 4 against the Twolves
- You get the picture - Hardy needs few minutes to get shots and points and should this be another lopsided affair, the minutes will be there
Listed below are our plays from Game 1. A respectable mark of 5-3.
Boston Celtics
- Overall record: 64-18 | Playoff record: 12-2
- Averaging 111.4 points while allowing 101.3 per game in the playoffs
- Best Bet: Celtics -3.5 1H (-112) - Boston has run out to early leads all season. While at times they stop and play with their food for awhile midgame, they routinely have controlled the game in the first 24 minutes thus far in the playoffs. Add in the fact that Dallas has yet to see a defense as constantly in your face and the Celts roll early.
Jayson Tatum
- 4-time All-NBA selection
- averaging 26 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game in the playoffs
- Was a classmate of Florida Panthers’ star Matthew Tkachuk from 7th -9th grade
- Best Bets: OVER 9.5 rebounds (-125) - Tatum has recorded double figures in three of four games in the Conference Finals
-3.5 rebounds vs. Daniel Gafford (-130) - Gafford starts but will average half the minutes of Tatum especially with the emergence of Lively for Dallas.
Luka Doncic
- 5-time All-NBA First Team
- NBA Scoring Champ in 2024
- Originally drafted 3rd overall by the Atlanta Hawks
- Best Bet: OVER 8.5 assists (-120) - As the overwhelming focal point of the Celtics’ defense, Luka must find the open player more often than ever this postseason.
Jaylen Brown
- 3-time NBA All-Star
- MVP of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals
- Played one season at Cal before turning pro
- Best Bet: To Score more points than Kyrie Irving (-120). Either Holiday or White will start on Irving but no question multiple defenders will meet him in the lane. Still a question mark as to whom from Dallas will cover/can cover Brown
Kyrie Irving
- Was a member of the Celtics from 2017-2019
- Hit the series-clinching 3-pointer for Cleveland in the NBA Finals against Golden State
- Played the role of Uncle Drew in the film of the same name.
- Best Bet: OVER 2.5 3ptrs/game - Kyrie hit the OVER in each of the Mavs’ three wins in the Western Final. Have a hunch his return to TD Garden is the stage he was born for
Kristaps Porzingis
- Has not played since April 29 (calf strain)
- Averaged 20pts, 7 boards, and 2 assists during the regular season
- Played for Dallas from 2019-2022
- Best Bet: UNDER 23.5 points, rebounds, and assists - Expecting Boston to roll in Game 1 the prevailing thought is Porzingis’ minutes may well be limited as he has not played in over a month
PJ Washington
- Acquired by Dallas at the 2024 Trade Deadline on February 8
- Averaged 12.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.2 assists per game in the West Finals against Minnesota
- Both his parents played basketball at Middle Tennessee State
- Best Bet: OVER 5.5 rebounds (-118) - Washington never had fewer than 5 boards in the West Finals and eclipsed this number in 3 of the 5 games.
Stay tuned as we will be back with a handful more plays prior to Game 2 on Sunday.
