For its season preview series, NBC Sports is focusing on teams at a crossroads, franchises where this season feels like now or never — either it works or big changes could be coming next summer. Up next: The Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota spent big — both in dollars and assets surrendered — to zig while the rest of the league zagged. In a small ball era, the Timberwolves brought in Rudy Gobert to stand next to Karl-Anthony Towns and form a twin towers lineup.
It didn’t work. In particular, the first 21 games of the season were not pretty. Last season, the Timberwolves had an almost flat net rating when Towns and Gobert shared the court of +0.43 (+0.9, via Cleaning the Glass with garbage time eliminated). However, that was a small sample size of 529 minutes — Towns only played 29 games due to a calf injury.
Complicating that fit, Anthony Edwards made a star leap and looks every bit the franchise cornerstone the Timberwolves should be built around going forward — they certainly paid him to be this offseason with a max contract extension. Then there is the Mike Conley factor. The veteran point guard was acquired at the trade deadline last February to rekindle his chemistry with Gobert and better organize the Minnesota offense. Conley and Towns were only on the court together for eight games.
It never really blended last season — it has to this season or big changes are coming.
Change might be coming anyway because this team is about to get very expensive. Minnesota has the second-highest payroll in the league this season, and both Towns and Edwards’ max extensions don’t kick in until next year. Then there is the fact Jaden McDaniels is extension eligible and will command nine figures. Teams hunting stars are circling the Timberwolves and waiting.
It’s now or never for this roster as constructed.
“I think that last year our team, if we were healthy, we were a team that could have been the Denver Nuggets of last year,” Conley said at media day, echoing a thought inside the Timberwolves and among their fans. They think they are close to being a top-four team in the West.
It’s now or never, the Timberwolves have to prove they are that good this season. But there are big questions to answer, starting with…
Can Gobert and Towns play together?
The concept was clear (even if the Timberwolves overspent to get there): Karl-Anthony Towns is an All-NBA level offensive center, but to keep him on the court and a postseason force the Timberwolves needed to cover up his defensive weaknesses. Enter the best defensive center in the game in Gobert.
It was not a natural fit. Towns didn’t look comfortable, wanting to attack on the dribble but finding the lane clogged, and then he got injured. Gobert took a step back overall with his game, maybe due to age or adjusting to the new team and style.
This season a lot falls on coach Chris Finch, who said what they learned last season was what did and did not work, they just never really got the chance to adjust and implement new strategies. This season, he wants to get Towns the ball in places he is more comfortable to attack — and we have seen that in the preseason. Towns is in motion more and is more decisive when he gets the rock.
“Try to take whatever is given to us and let the defense dictate who gets the shot,” Towns said on media day of the offense. “So, just not forcing anything and being smart with the basketball.”
Last season the Timberwolves were +9.4 per 100 when Towns, Gobert, Edwards and Conley were on the court together, but that was also extreme small sample size theater of 212 possessions (a few games worth). For Minnesota faithful, those minutes and some flashes against Denver in the playoffs show the potential of this roster.
Is that potential real? Maybe, pundits picking the over on Timberwolves wins is trendy (our partner Draft Kings has them at 44.5). The bigger question may be about what happens after this year.
Time to make this Edwards’ team
Anthony Edwards is the best player in Minnesota since Kevin Garnett.
He’s not all the way there yet, but he’s on that path — a leap to All-NBA player this year seems very possible. You can see him on the track to being a legitimate top-10 player in the league — he was “the guy” on Team USA this past summer — and with that, the franchise should focus on getting players around Edwards to fit with his style.
Anthony Edwards.
— NBA (@NBA) August 20, 2023
Absolute showman.
34 POINTS for the @usabasketball star in their comeback W today vs. Germany! pic.twitter.com/ee2ob2SiqS
Jaden McDaniels is one of those guys. McDaniels is an elite defensive wing who is becoming an offensive threat and is a natural fit next to Edwards. It’s going to be expensive, but the Timberwolves need to lock him up.
At center, Minnesota appears to have leaned into the two bigs lineup a year too early.
Where do Towns and Gobert fit in an Edwards future? That’s what this season will show. Throughout the 82-game marathon, we will all see what works and what doesn’t. Who fits and who doesn’t.
However, dollars may decide what is next — and it’s why league sources tell NBC Sports they believe Towns may be available for a trade in the next 12-18 months. The Timberwolves will have to do some cost-cutting in the coming year or two, and having three centers — the team re-signed Naz Reid this past summer — makes it the logical place to cut.
Minnesota might prefer to trade Gobert and keep Towns, but if Gobert does not show marked improvement from last season he will be difficult to trade — the Timberwolves would have to throw in a sweetener, and they gave up their picks to get him. There would be a lot of interest in a Towns trade and he would bring back the kinds of players and picks that could fit better on Edwards’ timeline. That’s what has every team monitoring Minnesota, to see what its next move might be.
First, the Timberwolves want to see what they have. Which is why this is a now-or-never season.
Timberwolves Fantasy Outlook
(This is from Raphielle Johnson of NBC Sports, check out his work and thoughts on every team in the must-have for every fantasy hoops player, the Rotoworld Draft Guide, available now).
Minnesota finished last season with five players providing top-100 per-game value in 9-cat formats, led by Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards. KAT was limited to 29 regular season games due to injury, so roto league managers missed the benefits as he was ranked outside the top 200 in totals. If Towns can stay healthy, he can provide far greater per-game value than last season, even though he’ll once again share the frontcourt with Rudy Gobert. Gobert’s value took a hit in his first season with the Timberwolves, but improved chemistry (especially between him and Edwards) should make him a threat to get back into the top 50 in per-game value.
Edwards is an emerging superstar, and availability has not been a concern in his first three seasons. He’s consistently coming off boards in the second round of standard league drafts and has the potential to be a first-round player in 2023-24. Mike Conley and Jaden McDaniels should hover around that top-100 threshold, while Naz Reid appears to be a late-round option at best...unless Towns or Gobert were to be sidelined due to injury.
