Las Vegas bookmakers are good at this: The win totals — the under/overs on how many wins a team will get next season — get you thinking “I could see that.”
Now that the dust has settled on the NBA summer (for the most part) Ceasers Palace Sportsbook put out its win totals for next season. Here they are, in order of highest to lowest:
Milwaukee Bucks 57
LA Clippers 55½
Philadelphia 76ers 54½
Utah Jazz 52½
Houston Rockets 52
Denver Nuggets 52
Los Angeles Lakers 51½
Indiana Pacers 48½
Boston Celtics 49½
Portland Trail Blazers 47½
Golden State Warriors 47
Brooklyn Nets 47
Toronto Raptors 45
San Antonio Spurs 43½
Miami Heat 43½
Dallas Mavericks 41
Orlando Magic 40½
New Orleans Pelicans 39
Detroit Pistons 37½
Sacramento Kings 37
Atlanta Hawks 36
Minnesota Timberwolves 35
Chicago Bulls 30½
Washington Wizards 28½
Oklahoma City Thunder 28
New York Knicks 27
Phoenix Suns 27
Memphis Grizzlies 25½
Cleveland Cavaliers 24
Charlotte Hornets 24
The Bucks and Clippers deserve the top spots, on paper they are the best teams heading into the season. The depth of the West, where 12 teams at least have legit playoff dreams, makes these numbers harder. Both Brooklyn and Golden State are at 47 wins, the Warriors will be the better team this season but in the West those wins will be harder to come by.
Here are what I see as the three best bets on the board:
1) Toronto Raptors over 45. Toronto is going to take a step back without Kawhi Leonard, but that number is way, way too low. Toronto went 17-5 without Leonard last season, and 10 of those games were the second night of back-to-backs. They were 4-5 against playoff teams and that includes wins over Golden State and Indiana without their Finals MVP. This is still a good team in a weaker East they are still going to be pushing 50 wins, especially with Pascal Siakam being a year older and OG Anunoby returning to the lineup. The only concern here is a mid-season sell-off of Kyle Lowry and others, but as it stands this is easy money.
2) Dallas Mavericks under 41. There are just too many questions here: How does Kristaps Porzingis look after missing a season with a torn ACL (and did you believe in him in the first place)? What kind of shape does Luka Doncic come back in and how much of a step forward does his game take? Will guys like Delon Wright and Seth Curry knock down enough shots to keep defenses honest? I like the way the Mavericks are building, I think there is real potential here, but in a deep West, I just don’t believe this year is their year to make a leap forward.
3) Detroit Pistons over 37.5. They won 41 games last season, they made moves this season that make them marginally better, and the top of the East got weaker. The Pistons are a slightly better than .500 team, not one you want to bet on to get past the first round, but 38 games? Blake Griffin gets them there.
