By the middle of last season, it was obvious the question was when, not if:
How long before Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the planet?
Five years? Three years? Discussing it with people around the league, there were some who said next year, and while they may have been in the minority they were not laughed out of the room.
He may not be the best player in the league just yet, but what should we expect from Victor Wembanyama in his second season? And just how high should you take him in your fantasy draft?
Recapping Wembanyama’s rookie year
As a refresher, as a 20-year-old rookie, the 7'4" center out of France averaged 21.4 points and 10.6 rebounds a game, shot 32.5% from 3 (on 5.5 attempts a game), yet he was a more impactful force on the defensive end of the court where averaged 3.6 blocked shots a game.
Victor Wembanyama catches fire as the Spurs overcome a 17-point deficit to defeat the Nuggets!
— NBA (@NBA) April 13, 2024
34 PTS | 12 REB | 5 AST | 2 BLK | 5 3PM pic.twitter.com/XmAYz32yK6
Wembanyama was the unanimous Rookie Of the Year plus finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
Then he looked even better during the Paris Olympics.
Wembanyama not only showed growth in his game between the end of the season and the Olympics tipping-off in France, but he also showed improvement and a growing maturity in his game during the Olympics. In the end, he was pushing the greatest players of an American generation (such as LeBron James and Kevin Durant) and it required Stephen Curry taking over late to beat him and the French team.
After earning a silver medal, Wembanyama issued a warning:
“I’m learning, and I’m worried for the opponents in a couple of years.”
Did he mean FIBA opponents or the NBA?
“Everywhere.”
How good will Wembanyama be this season?
We know Wembanyama will bring an improved game to the court this season, but more importantly he will have a little more veteran talent around him to set him up. Last season, the Spurs were the youngest team in the league, and that inexperience showed. This time around, things are different.
Chris Paul — the best floor general point guard of a generation — is now orchestrating the attack, which means Wembanyama will get the ball in better positions to score. Harrison Barnes is a rock-solid, floor-spacing four to go next to Wembanyama. The Spurs are just better around him, which will open things up for Wembanyama in his second season — he may not score a lot more in raw counting stats, but he should be more efficient.
Let’s break it down by award:
Will he be an All-Star? That feels like a given, doesn’t it? Wembanyama will make his first All-Star Game.
The better question is, will he be a starter? That’s a much tougher task only because of the depth of the Western Conference: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Nikola Jokic were the frontcourt starters a year ago, and all are back. The West also has Anthony Davis, who was one of Team USA’s best four players (at least) during the Paris Olympics, plus will have the massive Lakers’ nation fan vote behind him. Barring injury, it’s a big ask for Wembanyama to be voted in a starter ahead of one of those guys.
It’s also possible.
Will he make All-NBA? This also feels likely. Remember that the All-NBA vote is no longer by position, it is just the 15 best players in the league over the course of the season. Wembanyama finished 20th in voting a season ago and should leap into the top 15 this season.
Will he win Defensive Player of the Year? Wembanyama is the favorite to take home the hardware. Don’t take my word for it, he is the heavy betting favorite. Wembanyama is currently -180 at our partner DraftKings, with second place being Rudy Gobert at +1100, followed by Bay Adebayo at +1200. Wembanyama was second in DPOY voting a year ago and should take a step forward, especially considering the improved talent around him.
Will he win MVP? Let’s not get carried away. Wembanyama very likely has MVPs in his future, but that award goes not only to an elite personal performer — which he will be — but also someone who lifts his team up to a top-three (or at least top-six) finish. That’s not happening, the Spurs are improved and could make the play-in, but will not finish in a spot to win Wembanyama the award.
Could he finish in the top five in MVP voting? It’s possible, not likely considering the depth of competition, but possible. Our partners at DraftKings have him ninth in MVP odds, which seems about right.
Wembanyama fantasy outlook
This is courtesy of Raphielle Johnson of NBC Sports, who looked at how big a leap Wembanyama can make this season.
When an athlete arrives on the pro sports scene with the hype that Wembanyama received, it feels far more likely that they will fail to reach said heights. His rookie campaign did not disappoint, with the Spurs beginning Wemby with the “training wheels” starting him alongside another big in Zach Collins. Given his lithe frame, the thinking was that Collins would act as a buffer for the physical play Wembanyama was likely to deal with. The only issue for him early on was a sprained ankle suffered just before Christmas, as the Spurs restricted the rookie phenom’s minutes until mid-January.
Wembanyama went on to win Rookie of the Year and finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting behind fellow countryman Rudy Gobert. Add in what he did during the Paris Olympics, and there appears to be a persistent feeling of, “I hope you guys had your fun because the future is mine.”
As good as Wembanyama was as a rookie, this is exciting (for fans, the Spurs, and fantasy managers who have him rostered) and terrifying (for opponents and those who don’t have Wemby rostered) at the same time. I don’t know what his exact numbers will look like, but I’m banking on the addition of Chris Paul to help make things easier for Wembanyama regarding where he gets the ball offensively and how much work he has to do to score. Defensively, having a season’s worth of references to learn from could propel him to four blocks per game, minimum (he averaged 3.6 last season).
He’s the unquestioned top pick in dynasty leagues, and in redrafts, Wembanyama is on a very short list of options for that spot. As long as he remains healthy, the sky is the limit for the Spurs sensation. I expect him to win Defensive Player of the Year this season. As for Most Valuable Player, that award tends to favor players whose teams are bonafide contenders. I’m not sure San Antonio will reach those heights in 2024-25, but he’ll get his hands on that trophy soon enough.
