Though there was conflicting information, I was convinced Joel Embiid would go No. 1 in the draft. He as a top-three lock. That was before his foot injury, of course.
Now, Embiid is in free fall.
I’d guess Embiid still goes in the top three, and I can’t seem him falling below No. 10 at the worst.
But I never would have projected an injured Nerlens Noel would slip to No. 6 last year. And this draft is much deeper, making the risk/reward evaluation less favorable to Embiid. Just to be safe, I’m including the possibility of him falling anywhere in the first round. (If Embiid somehow falls to the second round, his salary would be a matter of negotiation, but that scenario is ridiculously far-fetched).
Rookie-scale contracts are four years – the first two guaranteed and the last two team options. Usually, especially for high picks like Embiid, the options are picked up.
Here’s how much Embiid stands to lose in each guaranteed salary and across the entirety of a four-year rookie-scale deal (counting everything at the standard 120 percent of scale). You can choose your own adventure – starting with whether you believe Embiid would have gone No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 and ending with where you think he’ll fall.
For example, if you believe Embiid would have gone No. 1 and will now go No. 6, you’re projecting a $10,018,983 loss for Embiid in the next four years including $4,554,960 of guaranteed salary. (You also might be Danny Ainge.)
Lost salary from No. 1
| Pick | Guaranteed | Four years |
| 2 | $1,186,320 | $2,610,531 |
| 3 | $2,214,720 | $4,869,216 |
| 4 | $3,105,600 | $6,830,783 |
| 5 | $3,876,600 | $8,524,817 |
| 6 | $4,554,960 | $10,018,983 |
| 7 | $5,139,720 | $11,304,280 |
| 8 | $5,654,040 | $12,434,776 |
| 9 | $6,107,400 | $13,431,730 |
| 10 | $6,365,760 | $14,000,743 |
| 11 | $6,610,920 | $14,413,809 |
| 12 | $6,843,720 | $14,815,321 |
| 13 | $7,065,120 | $15,202,945 |
| 14 | $7,275,120 | $15,574,192 |
| 15 | $7,475,160 | $15,933,749 |
| 16 | $7,664,640 | $16,376,938 |
| 17 | $7,845,000 | $16,797,215 |
| 18 | $8,016,240 | $17,196,575 |
| 19 | $8,162,640 | $17,537,627 |
| 20 | $8,286,960 | $17,827,018 |
| 21 | $8,406,240 | $18,030,141 |
| 22 | $8,520,600 | $18,226,386 |
| 23 | $8,630,520 | $18,418,058 |
| 24 | $8,736,240 | $18,605,683 |
| 25 | $8,837,400 | $18,787,554 |
| 26 | $8,918,160 | $18,986,475 |
| 27 | $8,985,960 | $19,154,302 |
| 28 | $8,999,880 | $19,187,875 |
| 29 | $9,016,440 | $19,229,006 |
| 30 | $9,032,760 | $19,269,898 |
Lost salary from No. 2
| Pick | Guaranteed | Four years |
| 3 | $1,028,400 | $2,258,686 |
| 4 | $1,919,280 | $4,220,252 |
| 5 | $2,690,280 | $5,914,286 |
| 6 | $3,368,640 | $7,408,452 |
| 7 | $3,953,400 | $8,693,749 |
| 8 | $4,467,720 | $9,824,245 |
| 9 | $4,921,080 | $10,821,199 |
| 10 | $5,179,440 | $11,390,212 |
| 11 | $5,424,600 | $11,803,278 |
| 12 | $5,657,400 | $12,204,790 |
| 13 | $5,878,800 | $12,592,414 |
| 14 | $6,088,800 | $12,963,661 |
| 15 | $6,288,840 | $13,323,218 |
| 16 | $6,478,320 | $13,766,407 |
| 17 | $6,658,680 | $14,186,685 |
| 18 | $6,829,920 | $14,586,044 |
| 19 | $6,976,320 | $14,927,097 |
| 20 | $7,100,640 | $15,216,487 |
| 21 | $7,219,920 | $15,419,610 |
| 22 | $7,334,280 | $15,615,855 |
| 23 | $7,444,200 | $15,807,527 |
| 24 | $7,549,920 | $15,995,152 |
| 25 | $7,651,080 | $16,177,024 |
| 26 | $7,731,840 | $16,375,944 |
| 27 | $7,799,640 | $16,543,772 |
| 28 | $7,813,560 | $16,577,344 |
| 29 | $7,830,120 | $16,618,476 |
| 30 | $7,846,440 | $16,659,367 |
Lost salary from No. 3
| Pick | Guaranteed | Four years |
| 4 | $890,880 | $1,961,566 |
| 5 | $1,661,880 | $3,655,601 |
| 6 | $2,340,240 | $5,149,766 |
| 7 | $2,925,000 | $6,435,064 |
| 8 | $3,439,320 | $7,565,559 |
| 9 | $3,892,680 | $8,562,514 |
| 10 | $4,151,040 | $9,131,526 |
| 11 | $4,396,200 | $9,544,592 |
| 12 | $4,629,000 | $9,946,105 |
| 13 | $4,850,400 | $10,333,729 |
| 14 | $5,060,400 | $10,704,976 |
| 15 | $5,260,440 | $11,064,532 |
| 16 | $5,449,920 | $11,507,721 |
| 17 | $5,630,280 | $11,927,999 |
| 18 | $5,801,520 | $12,327,359 |
| 19 | $5,947,920 | $12,668,411 |
| 20 | $6,072,240 | $12,957,801 |
| 21 | $6,191,520 | $13,160,925 |
| 22 | $6,305,880 | $13,357,170 |
| 23 | $6,415,800 | $13,548,842 |
| 24 | $6,521,520 | $13,736,466 |
| 25 | $6,622,680 | $13,918,338 |
| 26 | $6,703,440 | $14,117,259 |
| 27 | $6,771,240 | $14,285,086 |
| 28 | $6,785,160 | $14,318,658 |
| 29 | $6,801,720 | $14,359,790 |
| 30 | $6,818,040 | $14,400,682 |
There is good news for Embiid.
Quality players stand to make much more on their second contracts. If Embiid falls below the developmental wastelands that have been the Cavaliers (No. 1 pick) and Bucks (No. 2 pick), he might be better positioned to excel and command more on his next contract. Quite possibly, that offsets his losses on his first deal.
More importantly, Embiid is taking a healthy approach.
It's all good GOD has a plan for all of us!!! MINOR setback for a MAJOR comeback. He knows what he's doing #WAFA #NBA
— Joel “Troel” Embiid (@JoelEmbiid) June 19, 2014
