We tend to call what’s left of the NBA season following the All-Star break the second half of the season. That’s not accurate. Teams have 25-29 games left (around a third of the season) — what’s left is a sprint to the playoffs. It’s also when some teams try to flip the switch and actually start caring about the regular season.
I’ve teamed up with Jay Croucher, the lead betting analyst at NBC Sports, to break down a list of five things to watch the rest of the NBA season — and how you can profit from them.
1) Are the Clippers for real?
Yes.
Count me among the media members who have the scars to prove they picked the Clippers in the past, but there’s a different vibe around this team.
“All four of us are at the same place in our career, we’re seeing things the same way,” Paul George told NBC Sports about himself, fellow All-Star Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Russell Westbrook. “We’ve made money, we’ve gotten the accolades and awards, now we’re focused on one thing, the same thing.
“We just want to win.”
The Clippers have been doing just that. Since Dec. 1 (after they found their footing after the Harden trade), the Clippers are 28-7 with the best offense in the NBA (122.8 offensive rating, via NBA.com) and a +6.6 net rating. They are playing a selfless brand of basketball led by a two-time Finals MVP in Leonard, who is playing MVP-ballot-level ball this season, and they are a threat.
Defending champion Denver remains the team to beat in the West. Oklahoma City and Minnesota could well finish first and second in the conference, but both those teams are untested in the playoffs and have younger core players. The Clippers are the biggest threat to the Nuggets.
Jay’s Take: “Absolutely they’re for real. At this point, when you look at the net rating and their underlying stats, basically after that 0-6 skid after they first got James Harden, and then they’ve been close to the best team in the NBA…
“I think the betting market is caught up now. Tonight, the Clippers are like 2-point dogs in Oklahoma City, and homecourt advantage is worth like 3.5 points these days in the NBA. So they’re saying that they’re 1.5 better than OKC with Kawhi still under something of an injury cloud. I think the market treats them and Denver as the clear class of the West, so I don’t think there’s a ton of value on them.
“If you believe in the Clippers, you’d be better off betting them series by series.”
2) Who challenges Boston in the East?
Maybe nobody. Boston has been the best team in the NBA through the first 50+ games, with a top-three offense and defense. So long as Kristaps Porzingis stays healthy, they have the best starting five in the league — Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, Derrick White, Porzingis — with real defensive versatility. We can try to nit-pick their depth (a healthy Al Horford is critical), say they are too reliant on the 3-pointer (and the variance that comes with that), say they get too offensively predictable in the clutch, but this is still the class of the East and maybe NBA. It feels like this is their year.
Philadelphia has the best chance to challenge Boston, but it requires not just the return of Joel Embiid, but the return of a dominant/best-player-in-the-world Embiid. If he’s rested and that two-way force with Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris and other solid role players, they have a chance (but Boston would still be the favorite).
If Doc Rivers can turn around Milwaukee’s defense while not sacrificing offense, and Khris Middleton can get healthy, the Bucks have a puncher’s chance. It’s just that, after watching them for 56 games, they don’t strike fear in anyone. I’m also higher on the Cavaliers than most and think they can make a playoff run, just not win the East.
Jay’s Take: “Are the Celtics just going to roll through the East and drop two or three playoff games total on the way to the Finals? Who can emerge?
“There are two teams that are the most compelling to me in the East. There are the Cavs, who I think have been clearly the second-best team in so far, they don’t have a difficult schedule to close, they’re heavy favorites to get the two seed. Even though everyone thinks they’re going to fall apart in the playoffs, Donovan Mitchell is better than he was last year, Evan Mobley is better, Jarrett Allen is better, they actually have real depth now with Max Struss and how Isaac Okoro has gotten better. I think that with what they’ve shown that they should be considered a clear threat to Boston.
“Then the other team is Philadelphia, because if they get Joel Embiid back and all of a sudden he’s the guy who was Wilt Chamberlaining the league, if they get that guy back with Maxey, with Buddy Hield, with Harris, etc. Even if they have to do it from the seven seed, I think that there’s a real chance that they could be the second-best team in the East.
“So at current prices, my best bet would be the Cavs +850 to win the East. I just don’t know why they’re three times Milwaukee’s price.”
3) The MVP race will come down to the wire
The latest ESPN MVP straw poll of media members had Nikola Jokic with a healthy lead, but talking to voters and media members during All-Star weekend (remember, select media vote on these awards), this race is much closer than that. The last third of the season is going to determine this race.
Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is legitimately in the mix and, if the Thunder finish with a top-two seed in the West ahead of Denver, he has a real case because he’s had to carry more of a load with his team. I also don’t believe Giannis Antetokounmpo is far out of the mix — he’s putting up some insane numbers, averaging 30.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 6.4 assists a game with a 65.1 true shooting percentage — but it would require a massive turnaround and sprint to the finish by the Bucks. Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic and Jayson Tatum are pushing for spots on the ballot, but I don’t see any of them winning it.
Jay’s Take: “We’re at the point now, 55 games in, there’s not a runaway favorite by any means. I know that in the ESPN straw poll that Jokic’s lead was emphatic, but I don’t know. I think if we’re going to get to the end of the season and Denver is a four seed with Jokic having his worst season in three or four years and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has a better record with a weaker supporting cast, arguably, and much more narrative and story. I don’t know. I personally think Shai should be the favorite to win this award, and he’s +210 in the market. And your Jokic is in the -140 range. So I think I still think this is pretty wide open and my gut says this is going to flip more to Shai.
“I also think that if the Mavs keep on winning, then Luka Doncic’s stats might just get so insane where if they are five seed and OKC is a three and Denver’s a four, I think Luca can get into this as well.”
4) Can the Warriors or Lakers make a run?
A run to the NBA Finals? No. Neither of these teams is coming out of the West. They don’t have the depth or versatility in styles of play needed to win consistently in the playoffs.
A run to the Western Conference Finals? I think the Lakers have an outside chance if everything breaks perfectly for them, but that run would be more about health and matchups. Which honestly is what happened for them last year. LeBron James and Anthony Davis can raise their games, but the Lakers need to play big and bully teams to win. Last year, they got a Memphis team without Steven Adams and still shaken by Ja Morant’a issues. Then they got an undersized Warriors team they could bully. That got them to the conference Finals, where Denver was far too good for them.
This year the Lakers could bully Oklahoma City (but may not win, OKC has more talent on the roster), and if they ran into another team that had injury issues, maybe. However, these Lakers are not beating a healthy Denver or Clippers squads, and Minnesota has the size to match them.
I think Golden State will put up a good record the rest of the season. Steve Kerr is finally leaning into his best lineups and Jonathan Kuminga is taking advantage, plus they have a soft schedule the rest of the way. But I don’t believe in them as a playoff team.
Jay’s Take: The Lakers and Warriors can make a run to the second round. That’s it.
“With LeBron and AD, with Steph and Draymond and their championship infrastructure, you can never put a line entirely through these teams. But, I think that coming out of the play-in and making a run to the finals is not going to be done every single year like Miami did last year.
“So I think the Clippers and the Nuggets are probably just too good. The Warriors, just with their lack of size and the struggles that they’ve had, are not the same. The Lakers, they just haven’t been able to figure out their offense for like three years now. I don’t think it’s realistic for those two teams to come out of the West, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they won a round.”
5) Who stays healthy?
It’s boring to say, “If Team X can just stay healthy they can make a run” because that is true of every team every year, but this season it feels even more like health will determine who makes deep runs and who we see playing in June.
Especially in the East. For Boston, can Kristaps Porzingis stay healthy for four playoff rounds? Does Joel Embiid return — and do we see the dominant Embiid rested and ready for a playoff run? If so, Philly has a chance. The Knicks can make a run to the Eastern Conference Finals but need Julius Randle and OG Anunoby to be back and playing at the levels they were before injuries. Cleveland has finally gotten healthy. Can they stay that way?
Out West, the Clippers are the biggest threat to Denver but rely on four older players with injury histories who all have to stay healthy to have a chance. Denver doesn’t have the depth it did a year ago and needs its starting five to play heavy postseason minutes. The Lakers and the Warriors are both older and have more injury risk.
Again, it’s boring to say, “The top-four team that hits the playoffs healthiest will win,” because that is true every season. This season it just feels particularly true.
