Knicks fans are dreaming big.
January had that effect on them — a 14-2 month with a league-best +15.8 net rating. It’s a run fueled by a Tom Thibodeau defense that is locking teams down after the arrival of OG Anunoby. It’s a month where Jalen Brunson’s play made him an All-Star for the first time. It’s a month that saw New York beat contenders in Denver and Philadelphia.
The last time the Knicks had a 14-2 month was nearly 20 years ago in 1994 — a year they went to the NBA Finals.
Could they do it again?
Why can’t these Knicks be last season’s Miami Heat, a team that made an unexpected deep playoff run? Why can’t the Eastern Conference Finals, or maybe the NBA Finals, be in their future? In an East where Joel Embiid’s knee, the Bucks’ defense and the Celtics’ 3-point shooting variance are legitimate question marks, is a path opening up for New York?
Yes.
I’m skeptical, because a lot of things need to go right for New York to make that run, but it’s not out of the question. First, they have to get and stay healthy — Julius Randle is out for weeks with a dislocated shoulder, and Mitchell Robinson remains out with no timeline to return (but could be back before the season ends). It would help if New York could find a way to climb up to the three seed, get home court for at least one round, maybe more with a bit of luck. They will also need other breaks in terms of matchups faced, because the East can be a gauntlet.
That said, it can happen — these Knicks might have a Heat-style run in them. They need these three things to go right — plus we’ve got some betting tips for those who want to try and profit on a Knicks playoff run.
Ride their elite defense through playoffs
When Mitchell Robinson went out with a stress reaction in his ankle, the expectation was New York’s defense would crater — and it did. In the next 11 games, without Mitchell, the Knicks had the 26th-ranked defense in the league and were a mess on that end.
Then the Knicks traded for OG Anunoby and everything changed.
Anunoby is one of the best on-ball perimeter defenders in the league. Combined with a resurgent Isaiah Hartenstein protecting the rim, the Knicks had a defensive rating of 104.4 in January, the best in the league (and it would be best in the league for the season by a ridiculous 4.2 points per 100 possessions). Since the trade, in non-garbage time minutes, the Knicks allow less than a point per possession when Anunoby is on the court (99.5 defensive rating, via Cleaning the Glass).
New York plays perfect Thibodeau defense — it’s team-oriented, they don’t gamble for steals and end up out of position, they stay home and protect the rim. They are disciplined. Their help rotations are on a string.
All that carries over to the playoffs — defense can keep them in games where the offense is struggling. Add Robinson back into the mix for the postseason and this could be a team that shuts opponents down, then it just needs enough offense to win games. Which leads to our second key…
Can Jalen Brunson be Jimmy Butler?
Playoff Jimmy Butler is real. I know Butler vehemently shoots down the idea that playoff Jimmy Butler is different from regular season Butler. Except, he is. Last season Butler averaged 22.9 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.3 assists a game in the regular season, and to use some catch-all stats he had a PER of 22 and an Estimated +/- (EPM) of +6.9. In the playoffs, with defenses focused on him at the top of the scouting report, that jumped to 26.9 points, 6.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists a game, his PER increased to 24 and his playoff EPM of +3.7 was eighth best in the playoffs.
One of the players with a better playoff EPM was Jalen Brunson (+4.5).
Brunson’s playoff numbers went up, too — from 24 points and 6.2 assists a game in the regular season to 27.8 points and 5.6 assists a game in the postseason (also as the guy on the top of the scouting report).
If the Knicks are going to make a deep playoff run, Brunson will have to carry the offense at points — and do it against elite defenses in Cleveland and Boston (both top three in the league for the season). He’s going to have to prove he is more than just an All-Star, he’s going to have to play at an All-NBA level through the postseason and lift the offense to where it needs to be.
Which brings us to a point that is not getting its own category in this list but matters in the playoffs — who will step up as the Knicks’ secondary shot creator? In the postseason, especially after the first round, every defense is good and disciplined enough to make life difficult for a team’s primary shot-creator. The best players — like Butler and Nikola Jokic last season — still get theirs, but the elite teams have their Jamal Murray to step up and take on the offense, or Caleb Martin can do it for a series.
Who steps up for the Knicks? Julius Randle can undoubtedly score, but he’s not a classic shot creator. New York traded RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, their second- and third-best creators, to get Anunoby, and someone has to fill that gap. If the Knicks can’t land someone at the trade deadline, a lot falls to Donte DiVincenzo, Josh Hart, and the rest to rise up to the moment.
Do the Knicks have another gear?
It’s taken as gospel around the NBA that the Heat have another gear they shift into for the playoffs — even now, as Miami has struggled for weeks, there is a “yeah, but you don’t want to see them in the playoffs” vibe about this season’s Heat. Playoff Butler shows up, Erik Spoelstra outcoaches everyone, Bam Adebayo defends the toughest players in the East, guys casual fans don’t know suddenly can’t miss a shot, and Miami becomes a very tough out.
Thibodeau’s Knicks play 82 playoff games a season — they outwork everyone. But does New York have that extra gear for the playoffs that gets them past a Boston or Milwaukee or a healthy Philadelphia (if we see them)? Thibodeau’s teams have struggled to find that gear in seasons past. If you play 82 games all-out, how do you turn things up to 11?
That’s where the Knicks plan to land one more All-NBA level star fits in — those players have that gear and lift up those around them. Leon Rose and the Knicks front office have set the franchise up perfectly to be in the mix when that next superstar becomes available via trade. However, that is not happening at this trade deadline, no player of that caliber is available, that’s an offseason move.
Which means these Knicks need to find that gear on their own — it has to be internal.
If they can find it, there’s a Heat-level run in these Knicks — but answering all the questions about the offense in the postseason is a big ask.
Where is the betting value in the Knicks making a championship run?
The following information and tips come from Vaughn Dalzell, a Sports Betting Analyst for NBC Sports.
The New York Knicks are gaining steam in the futures market, but despite the recent hot play (9-1 in the last 10) and improvement via trade bringing OG Anunoby over from Toronto, I am not sold yet.
New York is +3500 to win the title and +1300 to win the Eastern Conference as a current No. 3 seed, so they are technically still a longshot with the 12th-toughest remaining strength of schedule (.503) and health concerns. Miami was a team with previous NBA Finals experience compared to New York which has none. I don’t think New York can replicate the Miami Heat’s run this postseason, but I do think the Knicks are an offseason and signing away from an Eastern Conference Finals appearance.
Where is the value on the New York Knicks?
An interesting angle of attack if you want to back the Knicks, but don’t want to burn money (sorry not sorry) is taking the Atlantic Division to win the NBA Championship at +200 odds.
With that bet, you win if the Boston Celtics (+300), Philadelphia 76ers (+1200), or Knicks (+3500) win the title. If Joel Embiid rests for a title push and the Celtics continue to do what they’re doing, this is the safest way to have the Knicks in your pocket.
New York Knicks Futures Odds via DraftKings:
Knicks to make the playoffs (-10000)
Knicks to miss the playoffs (+1400)
Knicks to win the Atlantic Divison (+12000)
Knicks to win the Eastern Conference (+1300)
Knicks to win the NBA Championship (+3500)
Atlantic Division to win the NBA Championship (+200)
