When does the first NBA MVP poll come out, one week into the season?
Few things around the NBA draw interest like the race for end-of-season awards such as MVP or Rookie of the Year. It’s become a year-round race.
Let’s make some predictions. Here are the odds for who wins MVP, Defensive Player of the Year, Rookie of the Year and more, plus my preseason prediction for the winners. All odds come from our partners at Draft Kings.
Most Valuable Player
MVP Odds: Nikola Jokic +450, Luka Doncic +500, Giannis Antetokounmpo +550, Joel Embiid +650, Jayson Tatum +800, Kevin Durant +1400, Stephen Curry +1500
MVP Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo
Antetokounmpo looks and sounds energized with the addition of Damian Lillard on the team, and this preseason he talked about having more space than he has in a long time because of Lillard’s gravity. That spells MVP to me. It would not be a shock to see Jokic or Doncic win either, and Tatum may be a good longer-odds bet, but give me an energized Antetokounmpo any day.
Rookie of the Year
Rookie of the Year odds: Victor Wembanyama -125, Scoot Henderson +240, Chet Holmgren +280, Brandon Miller +1600, Julian Strawther +2500
Rookie of the Year prediction: Victor Wembanyama
Don’t overthink this. Wembanyama is a once-in-a-generation prospect who has impressed on both ends of the floor through the preseason. Wembanyama will blow the lid off what we thought possible all season long. If anyone is going to beat him, bet on Holmgren, who will be playing meaningful minutes for a potential playoff team in OKC.
Coach of the Year
Coach of the Year odds: Mark Daigneault +650, Adrian Griffin +700, Erik Spoelstra +800, Joe Mazzulla +850, Michael Malone +900
Coach of the Year prediction: J.B. Bickerstaff
Oklahoma City’s Daigneault could well win this, the Thunder look like a team ready to take a step forward, but I will lean into the coach for another team I expect will make a leap this season: J.B. Bickerstaff and the Cleveland Cavaliers (+1600 at Draft Kings). If the Cavaliers are pushing Boston and Milwaukee for a top-two seed in the East as I expect, Bickerstaff will deservedly get a lot of credit. My dark horse candidate here: Rick Carlisle with the Indiana Pacers, another team I think will make a giant leap.
Sixth Man of the Year
Sixth Man of the Year odds: Immanuel Quickely +800, Malcolm Brogan +800, Norman Powell +1000, Malik Monk +1100, Derrick White +1300
Sixth Man of the Year prediction: Immanuel Quickley
Quickley could have won this last year and I expect him to be even better in the same role this season, so it’s hard to go against the Knick. Brogdon, starting the season in Portland but very likely to be traded, seems a long shot to repeat. My other players to watch are Derrick White or Al Horford in Boston, whichever one ends up being the regular sixth man. Especially if it is White, he would thrive in that role on an outstanding team, a formula Brogdon used to win the award a year ago.
Defensive Player of the Year
Defensive Player of the Year odds: Jaren Jackson Jr. +450, Evan Mobley +650, Giannis Antetokounmpo +750, Bam Adebayo +900, Anthony Davis +1000
Defensive Player of the Year prediction: Evan Mobley
Mobley was third in the DPOY voting last year and I expect a leap forward from the Cavaliers — as mentioned in the Coach of the Year note above — so Mobley will get the nod to win the award. Antetokounmpo will have a real chance because so much more will be asked of him in Milwaukee. Anthony Davis may be the best bet to win the award if you think he will play 70+ games, but I just can’t get there. Jackson Jr. will have a hard time repeating his play over 82 games without Steven Adams next to him, doing the dirty work and letting Jackson Jr. roam.
Most Improved Player
Most Improved Player odds: Mikel Bridges +800, Tyrese Maxey +1000, Jordan Poole +1100, Cade Cunningham +1300, Austin Reaves +1400
Most Improved Player prediction: Cade Cunningham
The most nebulous of the NBA awards is also the hardest to predict — the point is who surprises us with a giant leap forward? Which player defies predictions and expectations? I will take Cunningham because I think people forgot just how good he is and I expect that leap from him under Monty Williams, but this could go a lot of ways. Jordan Poole will put up big numbers, but is that improvement or just the same Poole in a better situation for him? Maybe Reaves gets a look, and maybe Anthony Edwards wins it because of his step forward.
