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Playoff bubble could change dramatically at Michigan on Monday

BROOKLYN, Mich. — Patience and persistence may be the key words when the Cup race resumes Monday (12 p.m. ET on USA Network) at Michigan International Speedway.

The race was stopped Sunday during the second stage. Seventy-four of 200 laps are complete. Tyler Reddick leads. Alex Bowman, who is outside a playoff spot, is second.

Michael McDowell finds himself out of the final playoff spot based on the points as they run when the race was stopped Sunday.

Just as critical is the damage to the nose of McDowell’s Ford. He’s already made five pit stops to repair the car after hitting another car on a restart. McDowell was listed in 27th place when the race stopped.

“Just hit at the wrong angle and pushed the nose in and just created a lot of drag,” McDowell told NBC Sports about the car. “It’s slow down the straightaway right now. We’re hoping that we can get it popped out a little bit better.”

McDowell noted that “it’s not a lot of damage. It’s just where it’s at.”

McDowell admits he’s been fortunate that there have been six cautions so far. Last year’s event had seven cautions over the 200-lap event.

“We’ve been able to get the bottom sealed up so the splitter is not flapping in the wind,” he said. “We’re making it better. We probably just need one or two more stabs at getting it right.”

Based on if points were awarded at this point, Ty Gibbs would have a six-point lead on McDowell for the final playoff spot. But others would be close. AJ Allmendinger would be 16 points behind Gibbs. Alex Bowman would be 19 points behind Gibbs. Daniel Suarez would be 21 points behind Gibbs.

With 126 laps to go, anything could happen and the points could swing significantly.

“We can only control what we can control,” McDowell said of his points status. “The goal was to get out of here just plus (in points above the cutline).”

With two road courses and Daytona remaining in the regular season, McDowell is confident he can make up any deficit he might have after Michigan — or pad any advantage he leaves with Monday.

Should Gibbs remain in the final playoff spot after the end of this race, it would continue a surge he’s made with Joe Gibbs Racing the last two weeks.

He entered the Pocono race 19th in the standings, 41 points from the cutline. He finished fifth at Pocono and 15th at Richmond.

Sunday, Gibbs finished second in the opening stage to collect nine points.

Crew chief Chris Gayle kept Gibbs on track instead of pitting in the first stage to collect those points. That was the plan provided Gibbs stayed in the top five.

After the race was stopped Sunday — and before the event was postponed — Gayle had a talk with Gibbs about their playoff spot.

“I showed him the points,” Gayle told NBC Sports.

Gibbs was listed in 11th place when the race stopped. Noting McDowell’s issues, Gayle’s message to Gibbs was clear: “We just need to maximize the points we get at the end of the day and make sure we walk out of here still in 16th with three more races to go.

“I think that’s the key for us. If we can win, great, we’re going to try, but you go for points in the first part, you know what you might do is get yourself in a bad situation later where you have to come back through the field.”

Gayle said it was important to stress the point situation to Gibbs based on how some of the incidents earlier in the race happened in tight racing.

“This is a place where you’ve seen a few cars cut each other very little slack and be really close and get a guy loose and have some problems,” Gayle said. “We just don’t want to be in that situation where we make it a must-win when we don’t have to have necessarily a must-win with three and a-half races to go.”