The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Dover Motor Speedway for a date with the Monster Mile this Sunday (2:00 p.m. ET on FS1). Dover is one of the most unique tracks on the Cup Series schedule. It is a one-mile concrete oval with 24 degrees of banking in the corners. Dover can be viewed as a larger version of Bristol Motor Speedway, though the complexion of this race will be much different.
Dover has always been one of my favorite tracks, and coming out of Talladega, there is plenty of value on the odds board. Here is who I have my eye on pre-practice and qualifying for the Würth 400 (Odds as of Wednesday, April 24).
Ross Chastain (+750)
Chastain has been one of the premiere performers at Dover in the Next Gen Era. Since 2022, he paces the field in average finish, driver rating and average running position. He has led a total of 184 laps in that span as well.
Chastain has done all but win at Dover and is a prime candidate to get his first checkered flag of 2024. +750 is about as short as I would play his outright price pre-practice and qualifying, so shop around if you can find a longer number. If you are looking for a little insurance to this bet, bet365 is offering Trackhouse Racing to win at the same price which would give you Daniel Suarez to win in addition to Chastain.
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Christopher Bell (+1300)
I still think Bell is getting disrespected in the market compared to his Toyota teammates near the top of the odds board, and a +1300 price on BetMGM is enough for me to get interested in a driver who owns the fourth-best average finish at Dover since 2022. He has been a strong performer on concrete tracks over the last two seasons as well, with average finishes of 5.4 in 2022 and 10.6 in 2023.
Bell is a two-time Dover winner in the Xfinity Series, so I think you are getting a great number for a driver in a fast Toyota who is capable of conquering the Monster Mile. I would play him down to +1000 pre-practice and qualifying.
Alex Bowman (+1600)
It has been all about Hendrick Motorsports in 2024, but Alex Bowman has yet to add his name to the winner’s list this season. Bowman missed this race last year due to injury but has finished inside of the Top Five in his last three trips, including a win in 2021.
Bowman has not had race-winning speed compared to his Hendrick Motorsports teammates, but after finishing fourth on the concrete banks of Bristol, I believe there is enough upside to take Bowman to win in this spot. I would also play his Top Five prop at +240 on bet365.
Chris Buescher Top 10 (+110)
Buescher is two-for-two at finishing inside of the Top 10 at Dover in the Next Gen era, and he spent 88 percent of his laps inside of the Top 10 in the last two trips. Getting this at plus money on bet365 is good enough for me, and despite the lack of race-winning speed out of Ford, I expect Buescher to show his consistency and quietly hang around the Top 10 most of the afternoon.
Martin Truex Jr/Ross Chastain to both finish Top Five (+300)
Going back to Caesar’s Sportsbook and taking MTJ and the Melon Man to both finish inside of the Top Five. Truex has Dover figured out more than most being a four-time winner and finishing Top Two in five of the last seven. I obviously like Chastain to win and believe he has Top Five upside with strong results in the Next Gen car. These may very well be the two best cars in the field this weekend.
Enjoy the Monster Mile and enjoy the racing in Dover.
