The NASCAR Cup Series turns it up to eleven in the Music City for the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (3:30 p.m. ET on NBC). This concrete track is extremely unique, being 1.333-miles in length with varying degrees of banking. Chevrolet has gone three-for-three so far in the Cup Series with Ross Chastain being the most recent winner.
There are six drivers priced shorter than +1000 this week to win the race on DraftKings, with Kyle Larson sitting at the top at +400. There is one driver at current price who I believe is the bet of this group, but I am most interested in the prop market this week. Here’s who I like pre-practice and qualifying for the Ally 400 (Odds as of Thursday, June 27).
Denny Hamlin to Win (+650)
The last two times I have written about Hamlin he has underdelivered in a big way. However, he has been exceptional on concrete, with wins at Bristol and Dover this season, and has been the second-fastest driver over the last two combined Nashville races. Plus, he’s owned a Top Three average running position in both of those races.
Despite three-straight finishes outside of the Top 20, this is the perfect spot for Hamlin to bounce back and break the Chevy stronghold at Nashville. +650 is the best price available on FanDuel, but I would play this down to +550 pre-practice and qualifying
Ross Chastain to finish Top 5 (+125)
Chastain has never finished outside of the Top Five at Nashville in the Cup Series, with a worst finish of fifth in 2022. His performance in 2024 has been up-and-down, but he has quietly been finding consistency with an average finish of 9.5 over the last six races. The scope of his season has been fairly similar to that of last season before his Nashville win, and he is too good to not take advantage of a plus-money Top Five and make it four-for-four here. This number is available on bet365.
Alex Bowman to finish Top 10 (+220)
Bowman has yet to score a Top 10 finish at Nashville Superspeedway, but the Hendrick Motorsports driver has posted solid results on concrete this year with finishes of fourth at Bristol and eighth at Dover. This price on bet365 is enough for me to buy in that the No. 48 can score his first at Nashville this weekend.
He’s had Top 15 speed in the races he has finished at Nashville, and his ten Top Tens through 18 races are second-best in the Cup Series. Bowman’s steady pace this year should translate well this weekend. I would bet this down to +200 pre-practice and qualifying.
Todd Gilliland to finish Top 10 (+1200)
Getting another quality number on bet365, this time for Todd Gilliland to finish inside of the Top 10 at Nashville. Believe it or not, he owns an impressive average finish of 13.7 over the last seven races. That streak of seven-straight Top 20 finishes is also the third longest across the entire Cup Series currently.
His resume at Nashville leaves a lot to be desired (35th in 2023, 24th in 2022), but this No. 38 team has worked outside of the box to put themselves in position for good finishes, and the momentum is certainly there to continue the trend. It’s a longshot for a reason, but this price is worth a nibble in my opinion.
Enjoy the racing in Nashville.
