The Round of 8 continues this weekend at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the NASCAR Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series. Here’s a look at some key questions and other notes.
1. Will any of those below the Cup cutline advance?
This is the largest gap to the cutline in Cup playoff history after the first race of any round.
Denny Hamlin is 27 points from the final transfer spot and he’s the closest of those below the cutline. Tyler Reddick is 30 points below the cutline. Reigning Cup champion Ryan Blaney is 47 points back, and Chase Elliott is 53 points from the final transfer spot. Two races remain in the round.
Among those four, Homestead seems to be the best place for Reddick, the regular season champion. He’s finished in the top five in three of his four Cup starts there.
But he comes into this weekend on a dreadful streak. Reddick has placed outside the top 10 in each of the last six playoff races. He has finished 20th or worse in five of those six races, including last week’s 35th-place finish at Las Vegas after contact with Elliott triggered a crash and led to Reddick rolling over along the frontstretch infield before driving his wrecked car to his pit stall.
Martinsville remains after this weekend, Reddick has not finished better than seventh at that track. He has two top 10s in nine Cup starts there. He has qualified in the top 10 only once there. One difference this time is that Martinsville will have a tire change from the spring.
Hamlin also has his share of question marks coming into the final two races of this round.
While he has four top 10s in the last five playoff races, he’s struggled to score stage points. He has scored one point in the last seven stages.
The task is simple, Hamlin said this week on his “Actions Detrimental” podcast.
“If you’re going to talk must-run top three in every stage and the race for the next two weeks, it’s me and Reddick,” Hamlin said. “No exceptions.
“If you don’t run in the top three every stage, that’s four stages and the race, there’s no way we make up that kind of ground on (William) Byron, (Kyle) Larson or (Christopher) Bell. That’s assuming, also, that one of them doesn’t have a great week, doesn’t have a great finish. So you need some help as well.”
2. What about Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney’s chances to advance?
Chase Elliott was blunt when talking this week with reporters about his situation.
“We are in a must-win situation for the next two weeks,” he said.
Blaney also is in a similar spot.
Elliott is the only remaining playoff driver with one win this season. His victory came at Texas in April.
Elliott is in this spot after the contact with Tyler Reddick last week at Las Vegas that damaged both cars — and that of Blaney’s as he tried to avoid a spinning car and hit the wall.
While there are differences between Las Vegas and Homestead, Elliott feels confident going into this weekend after how he performed before the crash at Las Vegas.
“We’ve just got to keep working in the direction that we were working this past weekend,” Elliott said. “I thought we had a good thing going and hope that it translates to Homestead.
“It’s easy to stay motivated when you have good pace and you feel like you were doing the right thing. I feel that was what we had going on, so we’ll try to carry that forward this weekend.”
3. What about those above the Cup cutline?
The three drivers above the cutline entering this weekend are also the last three winners at Homestead.
Christopher Bell is 42 points above the cutline, Kyle Larson is 35 points above it, and William Byron is 27 points above it.
Bell won last year at Homestead. Larson won in 2022. Byron won in 2021. Those three drivers have combined to lead 61% of the laps run in the last three races at Homestead and 71.5% of the laps run in the past two races at the track.
Also, Bell ranks first points in points scored among the remaining playoff drivers in the postseason at 265. Byron is next at 254. Larson ranks fourth at 217 points, one point behind Joey Logano.
Nothing is going to come easy in this round regardless, but the strength of these drivers makes it more challenging for those below the cutline to take a spot in the Championship 4.
4. A closer look at Championship 4 drivers in three series
After one race in the Round of 8 in the Cup, Xfinity and Truck Series, Joey Logano (Cup), AJ Allmendinger (Xfinity) and Grant Enfinger (Trucks) have each secured a spot in the title race for their series.
Combined, those three drivers won one points race in the regular season of their respective series. Logano won the five-overtime Cup race at Nashville Superspeedway.
In the Xfinity Series, Allmendinger’s best finish in the regular season was third at Atlanta and Watkins Glen.
In the Truck Series, Enfinger’s best finish in the regular season was a second at North Wilkesboro and Pocono.
In the playoffs, Logano has won twice, including last week’s Cup race at Las Vegas. Allmendinger finished second at the Charlotte Roval before winning last week at Las Vegas. Enfinger had a ninth-place finish at Kansas before his win at Talladega.
Logano, Allmendinger and Enfinger have combined to win four of the 15 playoff races (26.7%) in the three series combined.
Also of note, all three drivers are 34 years or older. Logano is the youngest of the trio at 34 years old. Enfinger is 39 years old. Allmendinger is 42 years old. Allmendinger is the oldest driver to win in the Xfinity Series since Mark Martin won a 2011 race at age 52.
5. Numbers to know
5 — Different winners on 1.5-mile tracks this season: Kyle Larson (Las Vegas I, Kansas I), Christopher Bell (Coca-Cola 600), Ross Chastain (Kansas playoffs), Chase Elliott (Texas) and Joey Logano (Las Vegas playoffs).
13 — Cup races have ended in overtime this season, a series record. The last time a Homestead Cup race went to overtime was 2016 when Jimmie Johnson won and claimed his record-tying seventh Cup championship.
20.6 — Tyler Reddick’s average finish in the playoffs. His average finish in the regular season was 11.2.
70% — Of the eventual champions won a race in the Round of 8 in the playoff system.
367 — Laps led (out of 783) that Christopher Bell has led in the last three races on 1.5-mile tracks. In those three races, Bell has finished second (Las Vegas in the playoffs), seventh (Kansas in the playoffs) and first (Coca-Cola 600).
