Three seasons into the Next Gen era, NASCAR has the playoff chaos it sought.
Through the first half of this year’s postseason, there have been more playoff drivers finishing 25th or worse and fewer playoff drivers scoring top 10s since 2017 — when the current postseason version debuted.
Already in these playoffs, three of the five races have been won by non-playoff drivers — including both races in this round. The result is that William Byron is the only driver who has secured a spot in the next round entering Sunday’s elimination race at the Charlotte Roval (2 p.m. ET on NBC).
Two of the top four drivers in the points at the end of the regular season are in jeopardy of being eliminated Sunday.
Tyler Reddick, who won the regular season championship, is 14 points above the cutline. Chase Elliott, who finished third in the regular season standings, enters Sunday’s race holding the final transfer spot. He’s 13 points above the cutline.
Even with the chaos, this is still a time in the season that Elliott says he enjoys.
“I certainly have a lot of fun in the last 10 weeks just because there is something on the line,” he said last month before the postseason began. “I do enjoy that aspect of being a competitor and showing up each week because it could be a make-or-break weekend for you. I think that is fun, you know?”
Why?
“Well, just because you either do or you don’t,” Elliott said. “That is fun to me. You go to a race and your back is against the wall and you have to perform. You either show up and get it done or if you didn’t, you get your report card that day and you didn’t do a good enough job. And I like that.
“I like that aspect of that there are intense moments over the course of that stuff. Am I a fan of all the aspects of it, maybe not necessarily, but I do enjoy the fun meter of being a competitor in the last 10 weeks that it brings me.”
These playoffs have been chaotic. Already, fans have seen …
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. beat Brad Keselowski to win at Talladega by .006 seconds, the third-closest finish this season.
- Chris Buescher pass Shane van Gisbergen on the last lap to win at Watkins Glen.
- Only 60% of the top-10 finishers in the five postseason races this year have been playoff drivers. No playoff drivers finished in the top five at Watkins Glen.
- A quarter of the 16 playoff drivers on average finished 25th or worse in each of the first round races. Since 2017, only the 2022 playoffs had a higher average of playoff drivers finish outside the top 25 in the first round races.
- An average of 4.5 cars have finished 25th or worse in the first two races of the second round this season — the most since 2017.
Some of this havoc is due to the car. Some of the upheaval is due to the schedule changes NASCAR has made in recent years.
The Next Gen car was intended to level the competition. While Hendrick Motorsports, Team Penske and Joe Gibbs Racing have nine of the 12 playoff drivers in this round, there is balance with non-playoff teams.
Since the Next Gen car debuted in 2022, non-playoff drivers have won seven of the 15 races in the first half of the playoffs. From 2017-21, only one of the 25 races in the first half of the playoffs were won by a non-playoff driver.
“There’s no doubt that ever since the Next Gen car was introduced the aggression level has gone to a whole new level mainly because the cars are pretty tough and the field is closer than ever, so there’s less give-and-take,” Joey Logano, who is the first driver below the cutline, said last month. “Passes are harder to make for that reason, so it just ends up being a little bit more intense.”
The schedule also has changed things for competitors. Removing Richmond from the playoff schedule in 2022 proved significant for title-contending teams. Playoff teams secured 92.5% of the top-10 spots at Richmond in playoff races there from 2018-21. All 10 positions went to playoff drivers there in 2018 and 2020.
To compare, Watkins Glen saw only two playoff drivers finish in the top 10 last month.
In the second round this year, six of the top-10 finishers at Kansas were playoff drivers — the fewest there in the Next Gen era — and four top-10 finishers at Talladega were playoff competitors.
“I think the Round of 16 is tough, the Round of 12 is tough,” Byron said.
2. More chaos at Charlotte Roval
The redesign of the Roval could continue this trend of chaos in the playoffs.
NASCAR reshaped Turns 6 and 7 on the infield course, making Turn 7 a hairpin corner that leads cars to the oval portion of the track.
“That new turn 7 is certainly going to be slow enough where if you do a good enough job and stay close to someone through (Turn) 6, I think it’s slow enough to where you can move someone out of the way without completely ending their day,” Tyler Reddick said.
NASCAR also tightened the front chicane (Turns 15-16-17) that will slow that corner and give others a chance to catch a car in front and make contact.
“They’re probably going to get the action that they wanted and the fans probably want,” said AJ Allmendinger, who won last year’s Cup race there and has won all four Xfinity starts there.
“It, to me, opens a lot for dive bombs and just the dumb stuff that we do. … It’s definitely going to add a new challenge compared to what we faced in the past.”
Chase Elliott is the only driver who has won multiple Cup races at the Roval with his two wins. He says the changes dramatically alter the track.
“I kind of look at it like it’s a new race track, truthfully,” he said.
Said Chase Briscoe of the changes to the Roval: “I definitely think it’s going to race way better. It’s going to create more passing zones, it’s going to create more chaos too, which I think is always exciting from a fan’s standpoint.”
3. That’s the way it goes
After scoring two top-10 finishes in the first round, Austin Cindric has not found much fortune in the second round and is among the drivers who face playoff elimination Sunday at the Charlotte Roval.
“Two pretty tragic races to start the Round of 12 here,” said Cindric, who is 29 points below the cutline. “We kind of have to go in here with the mindset of winning the race, which simplifies things in a lot of ways. It certainly simplifies strategy thoughts and thoughts in preparation for the race. It’s not the situation you want to be in, but it’s something we’re certainly prepared to go after and fight for.”
Cindric spun after making contact with Kyle Busch at Kansas and went on to finish 34th.
Cindric was leading last week at Talladega five laps from the scheduled end when contact from behind turned him, triggering a crash that collected more than 20 cars. Cindric finished 32nd.
So how does one move past that result after being so close to advancing with a win?
“I think you kind of just have to move past it,” Cindric said. “That’s kind of one that was a lot more in hand, not saying a win was in the hand, but a really good finish and really good points were seemingly in our grasp there and definitely changes the outlook for this weekend and the results for our season. That one obviously stings.
“Kansas was a lot more my fault, which I can process how to deal with those problems and be better at my seat, but the opportunity lost there is definitely a little bit more difficult to deal with, but that’s kind of all part of it.
“If I had a point for every time I’ve said that’s the way it is or that’s the way she goes over the last 72 hours, I’d probably be above the cutline right now. That’s the way it goes.”
4. Xfinity elimination race
The Xfinity race Saturday is fascinating due to who is below the cutline. Four drivers will be eliminated.
Those drivers below the cutline are Justin Allgaier (-7 points), Shane van Gisbergen (-10), Sam Mayer (-13) and Parker Kligerman (-16).
Allgaier entered the playoffs as the No. 1 seed after a regular season that saw him win two races and 14 stages.
Van Gisbergen won three races in the regular season — all on road courses.
Mayer is below the cutline after his car was disqualified for failing inspection after last weekend’s race at Talladega. He won last year’s Xfinity race at the Roval.
Kligerman scored two of his four top-five finishes this season on road courses.
Sammy Smith and Chandler Smith are the only drivers who have secured a spot in the next round, leaving 10 drivers to vie for the final six transfer spots in Saturday’s race.
5. Numbers to know
1 — Driver locked into the next round of the Cup playoffs. That is William Byron.
4 — Different winners in road course events this year: William Byron (Circuit of the Americas), Kyle Larson (Sonoma), Alex Bowman (Chicago) and Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen).
6.40 — Average finish at the Roval by Alex Bowman, the best for all drivers who have made a minimum of four starts at the track.
9 — Consecutive different winners this season: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Talladega), Ross Chastain (Kansas), Kyle Larson (Bristol), Chris Buescher (Watkins Glen), Joey Logano (Atlanta), Chase Briscoe (Darlington), Harrison Burton (Daytona), Tyler Reddick (Michigan) and Austin Dillon (Richmond).
18 — Different winners this season, tied for the second most all time through 31 races.
